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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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cherroy
post Mar 16 2011, 09:34 PM

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QUOTE(wwwcomment @ Mar 16 2011, 05:32 PM)
Just sometimes wonder
Is it really worth it my frugal life style
Hopefully when I get old I really can go enjoy a bit
But who knows what will happen in future?

So youngsters enjoying the moment life style is not something that we can say right or wrong
Just like grand grandfather told grandfather how tough his life was
Then grandfather told father how tough his life also
Then father tells his son now, his life was tough…
*
Frugal life doesn't mean not happy life.
Total unrelated.

Life is a journey, working hard, live frugal style, once look back can also an enjoyment.

Living in a big house, travelling, when you cannot have it, seems very enjoyable.
But once you reach the stage, sometimes, you wonder, is this an enjoyment?

Whether youngster want to enjoy life or not, it is individual matter, no one comment.
But if a person want to enjoy, but saying the income is not enough to enjoy, raise debt to enjoy, then this is the person problem. Please don't blame environment, don't blame anything, but himself that inability to earn more income. smile.gif

How many people want to enjoy now, raise debt, sign credit card, max the credit limit, seeking for personal loan to spend money only, in the end of day become the slave for banks to loan repayment for the rest 5 to 10 years?





cherroy
post Mar 17 2011, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Mar 17 2011, 03:26 PM)
japan high demand on steel, cement, wood will push price up. msia timber, plywood, MDF prices has already up recently. same to global steel price etc
*
This is a speculation only.

This may not necessary is a must.

Do you think in the midst of crisis and plenty of work need to be done to clear up, restoring back to normal, Japan importer will import those material now?
This is more about speculation locally, and traders. Not real demand pull.

In longer run, when thing become norm and reconstruction started, may be. But not right now or short term.

Steel is facing lacklustre demand, despite higher price. See the latest steel company financial report will roughly give us the idea.
Higher price of all materials currently is cost push, not demand pull.

cherroy
post Mar 21 2011, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Mar 21 2011, 10:35 AM)
approx. 80% of households earn less than 5K a month, i doubt many can afford a 500K house/ condo in KL. new lauches in those so called prime locations are priced >RM500 psf for condo, and this has caused older condos prices to shoot up to RM400-450 psf in surrounding area. Just wait and see how high can the price go  wink.gif
*
This is household only, not including company, individual foreigner, and foreigner company.

This is a property that being launched that I knew, a cash rich company bought 8~10 straight away for investment purposes and rent it out.

Also this is income stat only, not including people made money from other source.
For eg.
You bought a shoplot 200k 20 years ago, now appreciated to 600k, and you sell it, you have 600k ability to buy a 500k already, even you may still earn 5k per month.

cherroy
post Mar 24 2011, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Mar 24 2011, 04:32 PM)
The demand is from the speculators themselves.  It is not self sustaining, but it won't last.
1. Old cash rich folks.  Instead of putting their money under the pillow they heard from people that props are a good hedge against inflation, and sure to go up.    (Speculation)

2. Foreigners. They heard that prop market here very cheap, and seems like will keep going up (Speculation)

3. Malaysians working overseas.  Donno what to do with money while working abroad. Unable to afford house overseas. Hope to use prop to stash their cash, which they hope they could use when they come back.  (Speculation)

The real demand comes from genuine home buyers. but they are lacking.
How is the prop price going to increase without demand from genuine buyers?
*
Properties nowadays no longer depended on genuine home buyers.
There are a few categories now

1. Genuine home buyer, buying for own stay.
2. As part of asset allocation, as FD rate is low nowadays, a lot of cash rich people and company, treat it as a place to park their extra money, investment etc.
3. Foreigners.
4. Speculators, flippers.

(1) may be lacking in the market now, but (2) & (3) is the reason that property price holding up which provide the supporting point. Couple with inflation that many people realise will eat into their cash, RE become a few sole route to protect their cash.


Here properties market is a bit strange one.
Properties price seldom plunge like stock price, but totally out of demand, aka you see properties being abandoned, idle, nobody interested, instead of price going down spirally.

cherroy
post Mar 27 2011, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Mar 26 2011, 11:24 PM)
Despite the alarm being raised on the amount of debt households are carrying, data indicate it's not a problem for the financial system as much of those loans are back by collateral and the assets of households are more than double their debts.

Malaysian cepat lupa or Human cepat lupa??? it is a known fact that the U.S financial crisis is caused by the housing market, the value of the so call collateral (properties) or assets that backing the loans declined significantly during crisis time. The collaterals were of course valued more than the mortgage loans when the banks decided to lend , the value only dropped sharply when crisis kicked in shakehead.gif
*
It doesn't threaten the financial system if collateral is backing those loan.
Also, Malaysia doesn't have subprime loan, although banks are lending a lot, this still be done by screening on personal income, although the screening process is relaxed a lot compared to old day.

We have pocket of properties bubble around, mainly in prime location, not across the nation.
Just over the sea of Penang, a terrace house cost 700-800k, can easily get a similar one at around 300K+ only.

It has some difference, Malaysia financial market still rather conservative, we don't have exotic derivatives of MBS, CDS, that is one of major reason why financial crisis occurred.

Personal loan, credit car loan are major concern.
With SRR is expected to go up further, cheaper house loan may be the past especially those like BLR -2% one.

It is human cepat lupa.
See how 2008 financial crisis is totally being forgotten already, financial market "party" again.
cherroy
post Mar 28 2011, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Mar 28 2011, 04:27 PM)
i think we have to get things right. It is the bad collaterals that caused the financial crisis, not the derivatives products. The significant drop in the value of the collateral is what caused the derivatives market to plunge, increasing couterparty and settlement risks. And why many financial institutions got caught was mainly a result of their overly opmitistics view on the outlook of the housing market ~~
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Those derivatives magnify the problem.

Imagine you are the bankers, you loan out mortgage, you also scare the borrower cannot pay up through the income.
That's why bankers always need to screen the borrower profile, income ability.
But with those derivatives and mortgages can be securitised, you can sell off your mortgages to third party, and pass all the risk to the third party.
So bankers can give as much loan as they can. Who care about the borrower can pay up the loan or not, the bankers the making the loan is not taking the risk of it, but third party that bought those MBS.

No matter how, if it is purely on bad collaterals alone, the situation is not that severe until the whole financial market freeze out.
It is those derivatives that magnify the situation and nobody know what's in their book.
Nobody knows who can go under, who not, so entire financial market freeze out, nobody dare to lend to each other, because nobody know who getting what card.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 28 2011, 04:47 PM
cherroy
post Mar 29 2011, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Mar 29 2011, 08:12 AM)
When i purchased my property in 2009 it cost RM470K. But now it can easily fetch RM 650-680K based on similar transacted deals in the same area. Would you recommend i refinance? My current 90% loan is for 15 years so balance another 13 years.
*
Why you want or need to refinance?
I believe the mortgage rate you were getting 2009 time, is pretty low.
cherroy
post Apr 5 2011, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Apr 4 2011, 03:45 PM)
Can get up to 80% for certain banks, if you know a good mortgage executive  brows.gif
*
This is suicide attempt...

Except for short term flipping, which still a dangerous game to play with high ratio bank loan vs income, I don't see why a person want to take such a loan.
Also, it is wrong for mortgage executive to give approval such a loan.
This also could be a serious issue of breach of trust and could be charged.


Added on April 5, 2011, 12:10 am
QUOTE(TheDoer @ Apr 4 2011, 02:46 PM)
Yes.  But consider the amount of existing debt that he may find himself in, I personally would weigh that over the fact that previously you are a good pay master.

Because it doesn't mean that just because you were able to pay last time, that you will still be able to pay.  What it does means is that, if previously you were struggling with your credit card, then it would most likely be that you are going to have a hell of a time paying back a loan too.

What having credit cards to me means, is that with a snap of a finger, you may suddenly find yourself borrowing a few K from the bank.  As such, it should be treated as a standing loan. And just because you are able to pay your current loan, doesn't mean that you can pay "despite" of it.

This is what I understand, from the little bit of banking experience I had.


Added on April 4, 2011, 3:05 pmI do not know the inside of local bank lending policy,  but I had experience with lending in a different country.

And it does seem that credit limit is the thing that make or breaks your approval chances by quite abit.

I really hate our local banking scene, and I find that they are pretty unethical, and have runaway policies.

For one, I once had to argue with a bank clerk that I shouldn't have to sign up for a credit card to get a simple savings account.  To which she says I had to get it, as it was part of the banks policy for savings accounts created for my company.

At the end of the day, it was a matter of whether I still wanted to create the account and get my salary, so I just signed the blasted thing.  When I went back to office, I found out that a colleague who went just a few days ago, did not have to apply for the credit card.  So I made a call to HR to settle this with the bank.

A few months later I got a mail from the bank, saying that my credit card was not approved....

I was like wtf??!!  What do you mean "not approved" I didn't want it in the first place.  What this means is that the bank clerk had gone ahead with my application, and just doctored some details so that I won't get the card as I had "wished".

Blasted clerk, she should be jailed for that.
*
Complain to BNM.

Nowadays, sometimes can encounter officer that is not honest or ethical, pushing some product that needless and not a must.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Apr 5 2011, 12:10 AM
cherroy
post Apr 6 2011, 09:48 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 6 2011, 08:01 PM)
Do not see the point here.
if earning 50% from purchasing price
property
bought 500k
Sold 750k
fees involve say: RM50k
net earning before tax = RM200k
RPGT 5% = RM10k
Net earning after RPGT = RM190K

if earning 30% from purchasing price
property
bought 500k
Sold 650k
fees involve say: RM50k
net earning before tax = RM100k
RPGT 5% = RM5k
Net earning after RPGT = RM95K

so why selling and earn 30% if you can sell and earn 50% margin from purchased price?
*
Because the next buyer/speculator has lesser incentive to buy the property.

If you know if you make 100k from properties but 50K needs to go for RPGT, your net gain is 50K, the return is lower, so lesser incentive and justification for high risk taking.
Speculate a 500K and end result is only gain 50k, only 10% gain, vs 100K which is 20% gain. The difference is huge.
Risk and reward ratio dramatically change with RPGT.

Just like when jackpot is 23 million time, lot of people want to try their luck.
When jackpot is only 3 million, the number of people try the luck become lesser.

Sold price is because of next buyer willingness to buy/speculate/flip.
Sold price is not determined by you or me, or existing owner.

cherroy
post Apr 18 2011, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 18 2011, 01:11 PM)
As I recall, the US example was cited mainly as an example that property prices can fall, i.e. to argue against the myth that property prices can only ever go up. But most people understand that the US economy is decoupled enough from the Malaysian economy that even a recession in the US shouldn't affect Malaysia too much.

The situation now is different in the following ways:

3) By and large, Malaysia banks don't care what happens to US banks, so they were not contaminated by the falllout. But when the property bubble in China bursts, it will also affect Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore. Do Malaysian banks have lots of dealings with Hong Kong, Singapore and China? I believe so. This could get very messy.
*
Just to highlight certain issue.

Malaysia financial market still highly regulated. Malaysia banks exposure to foreign asset/loan is through their subsidiary that venture into overseas, not directly from Malaysia based banks.
They cannot loan out from Malaysia banks. It is still regulated and certain capital control still in place.
Those subsidiaries that venture into overseas are still small portion in term of asset/business wise.

Malaysia banks cannot have direct dealing with overseas loan business.
Same with foreign banks cannot have direct dealing with business loan here. That's why you see foreign banks operated here is incorporated here.

A recession of US did affect Malaysia, just degree less and more. It is never decoupling.
cherroy
post Apr 22 2011, 12:24 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 21 2011, 11:17 PM)
first of all, that is the official number, the actual inflation is usually higher. (by the way, last i read the inflation rate is 2.9% instead of 2.4%)

secondly, the number above is an average number - which means there are some goods (such as electronic devices) deflated while some goods (such as property) inflated. the average number is still positive, which means the goods that price has increased is way more than the goods that price has decreased.
*
Yes, quite correct.

CPI is a basket of price of goods.
Properties price is increasing but rental is not.
While rental is included in CPI number computation.
Rental is hardly increasing actually, despite property price soaring like no tomorrow.

Same with those basic subsidised item, like petrol, sugar, electricity tariff etc, which is included in CPI number.

So you have 20 items price is stagnant, while 10 items price soaring 10%. End result the number is normalised by the stagnant price, which after being sum up and average, as 3.3%.

A 3% CPI number is already quite serious considered that we have so many subsidised items that intend to surpress the pricing throughout.

A 5% CPI could mean inflation running wild already.


cherroy
post Apr 25 2011, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 25 2011, 01:23 PM)
some shitty idea:
1. subsidy reduced or removed. prices shoots through the roof.
2. property prices definitely beyond reach of 'normal' consumers. forced to rent from hereon. some even sell existing home to cater to new living cost.
3. all properties in malaysia held by 'affluent' people and started monopolising rental rates. rental rates starts shooting through the roof.
what happens next is anybody's guess.
terrifying but might be a reality in the making.
*
1. This will make the property price goes even higher.
2. What is normal? 2K per month? 5k per month? For some senior post, 5K per month is normal for them.
3. Properties mainly held by rich and wealthy people and company, yes, possible scenario in making. But rental rate is not going up even got little only for residential properties. Commercial one, may be much more, but not on residential one.
Rental market is not that good actually.
cherroy
post Apr 25 2011, 11:35 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 25 2011, 04:23 PM)
So what does our esteemed moderator think about our residential property market? Are you a bull or a bear?
*
What we must choose to be either bull or bear?

QUOTE(Bobby C @ Apr 25 2011, 04:52 PM)
Anyone listen to BFM radio recently? The business, finance radio station.

This morning they interviewed the CEO of Economic Transformation Program. Just few days ago they interviewed the CEO of LHDN inland revenue.

Believe all should know now that only 10% of working population paying income tax. Remaining 90% below taxable income. (LHDN CEO trying to twist and ignore the fact, making ass out of himself in radio station, utterly unbelievable such thing can happen. Oh boy, Malaysia truly Asia mah!)

What shocking to hear that out of 10% paying income tax, only 10% paying 15% above taxes. In short, only 1% paying 15% and above tax bracket! If you are above 15% tax bracket, congrats! You and the top 1%, though the fact is take home income nothing to shout if you stay in KV.

I still firmly believe all being con by conment. But tat doesn't imply one big bubble burst, but possibility of mini bubbles in few areas. Thks to conment lah. 1Malaysia!  icon_idea.gif
*
It is about personal level only, it did not mention the corporate level.
Lot of wealthy person has wealth under company level.
In fact, corporate/company tax rate is lower than personal tax rate.
Corporate tax - 25%
Personal max tax - 26%

Eg.
You can be a company CEO that own 99.9% of the company, you can have 50k annual remuneration, but company is earning millions of profit.

While holding properties under company potential has more advantage compared to individual holding, in term of expenses incurred, tax relief etc.

Has you seen an apartment or a project, a company bought 8-10 unit or almost whole floor or 2?
I had seen before.




cherroy
post Apr 27 2011, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 27 2011, 10:04 AM)
i reckon the next thing that happens will be increase of rental wink.gif
*
Unlike in a big way as same as pace of properties price.

Rental market is rather weak.

Properties price surge so drastically, has a lot to do with cheap money available, extreme low interest (make people withdraw saving/FD to invest in properties), inflation (eat up people saving).
Properties price surge is not because rental market is good nor rental yield is good which lead to people invested in properties.
cherroy
post Apr 27 2011, 12:45 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 27 2011, 12:22 PM)
yeah right, back to your shitty idea  laugh.gif

reason are property price risen significantly, landlord will not be able to cover loan with rental. how long is the landlord willing to bleed cash? one landlord increase rental might not have effect, but how about when most of the landlord are already feeling the pain and they slowly increase rental? previously if the tenants find the rental is high, tenant look for somewhere else, but in this situation, everywhere rental has increased, tenant cannot afford to buy, the only option is to continue paying higher rental.

i remember a business guru in taiwan once said, things will always swing from one end to another. for example, when there are too much exclusive (expensive) restaurant in the market, affordable mamak will start mushrooming. in this context, when property price has increased to certain level, which indicates has reached the end of a swing, rental will be another end to rise

secondly is combo with government high income nation transformation, what is unaffordable today will be affordable tomorrow
*
There are a lot of vacant condo, apartment waiting for tenants.
You can go to see those mid, mid high range apartment, you can see mostly are not not >80% occupied.
There are few condo I personally know, after 3-4 years completed, the apartment just being left like that, occassionally got tenant for a few months, then missing again, and left vacant for a year or two.
But the condo price shoot up 70-80% in this 3-4 years time, or precisely after completed until now (about 4 years)

This will keep rental rate supress and not shooting like the same pace with properties.
Yes, rental may creep out a little but definitely won't be the same pace with properties price.
cherroy
post Apr 27 2011, 01:26 PM

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Minimum wages policy won't able to lead nation into high income.

If you set minimum wages at Rm1000, then those above Rm1000 is not going to be affected, same income.
Those earn Rm800, now getting Rm1000 due to minimum wages, but employer may feel profit margin being squeezed or no profit at all, so raise the product, the wages increase back to square 1.
Wages increase 20%, goods increase 20%, house increase 20%, you get zero benefit in the process.

High income is not about minimum wages.
High income is about your country able to produce more and more valued added product.
For eg.
Instead export timber log directly at Rm1000, now you set up local mill, furniture factory, turn the timber into high class furniture which can be export and sold at Rm5,000.
You valued added Rm4,000 locally, as compared export raw timber log Rm 1000
There is extra Rm4,000 opportunities created, money being earned, can be spreaded to more wages to more people locally.

Increase salary blindly or can mean straight away can turn country into high income earner without any output increment.
cherroy
post Apr 28 2011, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Apr 28 2011, 02:59 PM)
the quality of human will be downgraded... it will be worse then ppl who staying in hk then with smallest space...
*
400-500 sq is normal size in HK.
Unlike here people already complain 700ft is small.

HK properties is even cannot breath for medium to lower income earner.
cherroy
post May 5 2011, 03:17 PM

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I don't know why so many people has such a concept, if RPGT is set at 30%, then house price will be up 30% aka prompt seller to jack up 30% to compensate the RPGT. doh.gif


cherroy
post May 5 2011, 04:49 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ May 5 2011, 04:31 PM)
This is happening in China. Dun believed? Asked those living in Shanghai.
*
Then propose gov to impose 70% RPGT, so that property price can up 70%. rclxms.gif


Added on May 5, 2011, 4:51 pm
QUOTE(chubbyken @ May 5 2011, 03:49 PM)
i believe these are the sellers who are too optimistic.
they believe they can sell with whatever price they quote...
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RPGT may not 100% effective to cool down overall, but to say if tomorrow gov introduce 30% RPGT, then tomorrow house price will be up 30%, then it is a blindly optimism.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 5 2011, 04:51 PM
cherroy
post May 5 2011, 08:46 PM

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OPR up 0.25%, so expect to see all major banks to raise BLR as fast as Monday.

So with theory of RPGT 30%, properties price up 30%.
Now BLR up 1%, so housing price should go up in tandem with BLR rise? whistling.gif biggrin.gif

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