Just finished reading my newspaper. Hahaha. I know, so outdated. Oso I wanted to add what I got from the lousy earnings report which spooked me when it was announced.

Theres a good news for TM yesterday. especially for ppl worried about not getting dividend because of huge capital repayment.

1. The good news: Today TM had securitised their employees residential loans with AmMortgage. This means extra RM349.9 million in their bank account. This adding with their current cash holdings comes up to RM2.4 bn (based on end Mar '09 and taking into account the dividend payout as well as capital repayment).

2. 2. If I remember correctly, WiNet's agreement to buy wholesale broadband service from TM have not yet been taken into account. I think it was Rm2++-3++ million (i forget dee)? So there goes another cashflow there for rest of year.

A lot of ppl have been saying that TM may not pay out dividend. But with the 2.4bn cash pile, we don't have to worry about short term dividend policy. Chances are high that we'll get dividend for rest of year.

Now for the skeptics.

Saying that TM have not made money for 15 years. That is so v true. I understand and agree with most of what you say. TM got a lot of failings. For instance, their operational efficiency, their management and so on. They definitely need to improve their bottomline and cash flow to stay positive in say 4-5 years.

But the last 15 years don't have broadband. You might say that's not a big biz that would make TM profitable. But I see broadband as constant and monthly cashflow to their P&L sheet. With fixed lines, they cannot control the ARPU (average revenue per user) or how much their customers talk in a month. But broadband, if Ah Kong subscribe RM160 package, they will surely earn this RM160 package for some time to come. If Ah Leong take only RM60 package, that income is also quite permanent.

And TM have the lion chunk in broadband market. Home based users will still prefer streamyx to mobile broadband and WiMax. Current ratio of broadband and mobile broadband (3G) is still 3 to 1. And this will be a long trend until 3G make a move on pricing and coverage. Especially since new users are likely to be new internet users who would prefer cheaper rates. I don't have to go into competitive edge over WiMax cos we have talked about it earlier on. Plus they are doing well with Streamyx combo package. Not to mention all the HP package that were sold. Cost only RMxx p/month extra with your internet charges but must pay for 2 years. That's 2 years locked in cashflow. I've bought this package for my mom, the laptop's not bad, always the latest model.

Look at Astro. Their earnings are rather stable, that's they can expect a regular amount of money coming in. They only have to worry about subscribing new people to sign on their package. And of course, stop ppl from cancelling their subscription (which was a huge problem few years back), I know cos I worked for them on their A&P and CRM initiatives. I'm the one responsible for sending out mailers giving incentives back to ppl to re-subscribe to Astro after they cancel their account. They are good because management is so far pretty good. I'm hoping that TM will eventually follow this leadership style.

I see improvements in quality of service and quality of products

TM is working on improving themselves. Some of you might not see it tho. But I do. Their customer service now is excellent. They have 24 hour hotline. I had problem with my connection 2 weeks ago. Turns out modem was spoiled. But the technician came straight away. Twice. Because we couldn't hone in the problem first time and he didn't bring new modem at first. 2nd trip he brought 2 different modems to try out somemore. During this time, the call centre called me twice to check whether my problem is solved. Again, I received a call just 2 days ago to check on my connection again. I was very impressed lo. And I was a disgruntled TM customer just a year back due to long wait for installation. But my speed was awesome and my internet connection was never down for one year. Now with the recent service I got, I actually emailed them and commended them for their great service. I'm not an easy customer to handle actually. And I'm still surprised I did that.

My wonderful, problem free connection is probably due to the upgrades they are doing. My area has high speed broadband installed. They are in process of upgrading other areas now. So future streamyx users will have same problem free connection like me.

Also, another plus of Telekom is they get the benefit of high speed broadband added to their product mix, with the governments money of course. Who else have opportunities like that?

So you think Astro is good company? What about Maxis and her internet services?

Also, I checked with my friend who uses Maxis. She complained like hell about their service. Got delay in installation. Make appointment to come but never go over to her place. Worse, they didn't even call, so she waited like dungu for it. After she chased them 3 times, they finally have it installed. Maxis is mother share of Astro (the company you praise) but they definitely scr*wed up this one time. So far, Celcom 3G is the most reliable of the lot.

Also everyone got problem with the internet speed la. I used my friends Maxis 3G during my internet down time and it was so slow eventho when you log in, the icon for connection at bottom left shows 7.2MBps. I checked their internet speed via http://www.speedtest.net. 7.2Mps my ass, it was only registering at 0.38 MBps. I even have problem logging in my trading hall to trade because not enough data cant be download to keep real time prices. If you have 3G, check your connection speed via this site, its amazing. I'm very sad to learn of this as I've worked on Maxis for their Hotlink A&P and CRM initiatives (Astro joined my account later), even did some launch for their 3G services back then. A very demanding client I may add. But still I have fond memories of them.

And if you like Maxis, then you should like the idea that a Maxis man was to be CEO of AXIATA. Jamaluddin Ibrahim. And performance have been pretty good. Sign that Telekom is improving on right direction. They just need to change their bad culture of makan gaji buta for decades, but that takes time.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes again, their earnings report for last quarter was lousy, but TM is not the only company suffering from bad earnings. I myself was shocked that TM did so badly. Also I will scold CEO if I see him la. But don't blame TM for causing the drop in KLCI please. It's only 1 out of 100 stocks that affects the KLCI. TM is not that powerful to cause foreign funds to flee Malaysia. If it were that powerful to affect the nation's economy, then the money i paid for it is damn worth it. Hahaha. Like a weapon of mass economic destruction.

KLK oso suck ma cos lose 52% profit and KLK is top loser yesterday. They have to writedown RM142.2 million loss on the overseas investment in Yule Catto & Co plc in 1Q, and realised loss of RM23.7 million on foreign exchange. Their nutraceutical plant in Singapore, Davos Life Science Pte Ltd’s also lose money plus the retail division oso lose 11 million. LIONcorp even worse to lose quarter of billion. Genting oso suck because lose 51.5% profit due to their stupid Star Cruise and their investments in UK casinos that never seemed to have made any great contribution to their profits, why nobody complains about this beats me. Also I can bet that I'll be getting dividend from TM, but i doubt Genting will have any dividend for the next couple of years. DRB-Hicom oso suck because lose 60 million. Why nobody whack them? I could list a dozen more earnings reports that are dismally low. And all these bad earnings report are a accumulated effect plus more than expected GDP contraction is what caused the KLCI to drop. Not TM alone.

We have already known that earnings report for this quarter would be bad. All got reasons, some ok reasons, some not so good because of stupid acquisition. TM is not the only one who has less than good reason.

Ok sorry, for last 2 paragraphs I was venting. I apologize. Just a lil stressed cos afraid KLSE will go up. Afraid oso KLSE will go down. Catch 22 situation. Call it PMS on my part Also I would like to thank whoever who bought the shares today and supported the price until recover back at 2.715. I think you bought too high. But never mind can still ave down. Haha.

This post has been edited by omores: May 29 2009, 04:57 AM

can Q 5 slots?
i can only Q 2 slots lower or higher
thats y always sell too low

WAH... a very long one...

omores:

Based on your research, what is the expected dividend that TM should pay out for this year
(in percentage based on current share price)?

This post has been edited by danmooncake: May 29 2009, 05:32 AM

Thanks for sharing ur view

Moonrider, u buy upon GM is going to file bankruptcy, u're really high risk taker

This post has been edited by Junior83: May 29 2009, 07:32 AM

Hope you guys have a good trading day! I'll be off for the whole morning. Maybe in the evening will join in the fun!

Oh that's easy. TM has reiterated their annual dividend policy of RM700mil or 90% payout, whichever is higher. According to AMVEST who is more bearish about TM than RHBinvest, this is about 27 cents FY09-FY10F. The lower the price, the higher the yield. For instance price at 2.70, its a beautiful 10% (not calculated at par value k) or what I'm aiming for is 0.78% p/share price with stock price at RM3.50.


Psychologically, TM must have been super confident about their performance this year to give out the capital repayment in a time where capital is hard to find and companies are definitely posting lower profits/loss. Which was why I bought the counter in the first place. It also is a point of no return k, if they end up needing money badly then they will be screw*d. They can't go issuing rights to make more money, it would make shareholders jittery and question their stupidity in giving out such huge sum of money. I'm sure the management would think about how badly it will reflect on them if they gave out money just to ask of it back by diluting shares? Hence I say it's point of no return. Money given out, TM will deal with it the best way they can.

Totally unlike Resorts / YTL. The weird thing is while Resorts would do well to give back some money to shareholders, in the case of TM you see some shareholders asking TM to keep the money la to ensure they have enough cash for the IPTV and HSBB installation. Aiyo, can you imagine shareholders telling the company to keep the money. How extraordinary. Of course you would say that this is Khazanah's idea, they need 2bn without changing their stakes in TM, thus TM went along with it.

Parting with RM4bn is not that big a deal, TM have enough money to sustain. Remember, TM had demerged into TM, the cash cow with low growth in voice except for broadband sector and TMI/AXIATA high growth, high capex. And TM is not spending extra capex than HSBB (which is locked in) and maybe IPTV (which may not go ahead), they aren't investing in voice anymore. So drop in ARPU for voice does not matter as much. Their big block of business is broadband. And capex will go into this. Not fair to look for growth in voice, when the capex's in broadband. Watch out for growth in broadband in the earnings report instead. And you'll find increased amount of broadband subscribers there. Ding Dong!

I like a company with guts. Confidence and making psychological statements like that, I just went ahead and bought terlalu banyak biji and have not even sold yet to reduce my risk. But to warn you, I will sell half of my shares when I reach my TP in June, as I will need the money to be diversified in other counters. The other half leave there for few years unless got warning signs, like any other counter la.

I'll attach reports from AMINVEST and RHBINVEST here, with dividend payout details. If you read this, then you'd realized the Q109 earnings wasn't so bad after all. Read with pinch of salt of course. But its interesting how RHB didn't change their TP price of 3.55 (with cap repayment included) before and after Q109 announcement.

Of course, I'm overly bullish, so take my words with a pinch of salt. I need some salt myself to avoid over-expectation








Attached File(s)
 AMINVEST_TM20090522.pdf ( 141.59k ) Number of downloads: 14
 RHB_TM20090508.pdf ( 79.93k ) Number of downloads: 11
 RHB_TM20090508.pdf ( 79.93k ) Number of downloads: 6
 AMINVESTTelecomms_090506.pdf ( 98.94k ) Number of downloads: 12

yea...this is the plan la if i've the discipline



you're junkie aint you

hahaha...ya, but think it'll be boring thats why still keep a bit of warrant for the kick and dun you ever sleep?

It's going to be green today ... but hope that it's not a trap like usual ..

I slept for about 1.5 hours just now. Already have my grocery list. Market up or down? Good luck all

me too. hope can sell off all on rally. I want to keep cash now until big correction coming. but pre market opening seems more seller than buyer

KNM posted a PROFITABLE quarter. Goreng in progress to 0.90

lets goreng until hangus

Lion make losses last year.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...210551/Article/

# LION CORPORATION BHD posted a pre-tax loss of RM551.571 million for the third quarter ended March 31, 2009, compared with last year's pre-tax profit of RM50.132 million. Its revenue declined to RM521.112 million from RM1.321 billion previously. It cited the impact of the global economic turmoil and the sharp contraction in demand in the steel industry as reasons for the steep drop in performance.

# LION INDUSTRIES CORPORATION BHD swung into a pre-tax loss of RM298.353 million for the third quarter ended March 31, 2009, from a pre-tax profit of RM215.677 million a year ago. Its revenue eased to RM927.134 million from RM1.693 bilion previously.

I read from another forum, KFIMA

they say KFIMA will announce result soon and will be good.

do you think KFIMA is a good counter to buy before the announcement ?

i think i saw quite a few threads from u stating that u only slp for a couple of hours...

is it the market causing u too lose sleep?

Tranmil goreng-goreng!

GREEN~~~~~

no, I'm a long term insomniac for 6 years dee. Actually market helped me to sleep, cos now I can fall asleep in the afternoon during trading hours. Never possible for me.

this morning oil soar to USD$65/barrel