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 Stock market V21, Huge Stimulus Age

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aurora97
post Feb 25 2009, 03:02 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Feb 25 2009, 02:59 PM)
if by April 24, TMI couldnt repay the 4 billion, what would happen?  hmm.gif

what i can forsee is,

- no 98 sens capital repayment
- would it upset both the TM & TMI investors, causing the price to slump?
*
at least still get away with the dividend, even though no 98 sens but if they can announce such plans. Than it shouldnt be a problem for TMI to repay the 4 Billion.

For corporate entities it wont look good if one say one thing and cant do it, so most likely even be4 the announcement... some accountant has already done the number crunching for them.
aurora97
post Feb 25 2009, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Feb 25 2009, 03:00 PM)
That's why I am surprise and puzzle, people go to chase TMI after TM share rise this morning which doesn't make sense at all. It is a bad news for TMI actually.
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Well for me personally anyway, i dont know about the rest...

I have some TM shares i bought around 2.95 and still holding, i will wait for dividend and capital repayment (whichever earlier) to continue to average down my cost price. It seems to be a blessing in disguise (or curse) but it seems TM continue to offer upside potential as a future investment to acqure more.

Whilst for TMI, its almost touching its bottom again i believe is 3-6-12 months low which is 3.02, its tempting and the daily flactuation 6 to 10 cents is quite an attractive intraday buy since i have consolidated most of my shares into cash.

I still favour it as a short term play like what pana said (though outlook is pretty neg)
aurora97
post Feb 26 2009, 09:07 AM

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http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html

Resorts heading south bound.
aurora97
post Feb 26 2009, 09:38 AM

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the StarCruise is liken to a huge piece of concrete tied to resorts legs (indrectly also to genting), no thx to StarCruise can expect resorts profit to sink each quarter.

aurora97
post Feb 26 2009, 10:44 AM

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TMI is only 6 cents way from its 1-3-12 months low RM 3.02.

Worrying part will it snap and head all the way to the south pole like what TM did.... remains to be seen.
aurora97
post Feb 26 2009, 11:27 AM

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To lklatmy :

What happens if you oversold?
http://lklatmy.blogspot.com/search/label/Buying%20In

Btw just to add, for those who oversold. In order to cover back the portion u do not have i.e. say u gave instruction to sell 5000 units of A share but you only have 4000 units.

Your remisier will have to buy back 1000 units

there will be a 0.10 cent discount (i believe i forgot the calculation) to the price compared to the quoted market price.
aurora97
post Feb 26 2009, 12:18 PM

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QUOTE(lklatmy @ Feb 26 2009, 12:07 PM)
The covering must be done on the same day and it's from the open market,so no discount of 10 %.
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the last time i remember, when i did an oversold thx to my remsier I got penalized a certain %.. and the price difference was definately not at market price.
aurora97
post Feb 27 2009, 09:19 AM

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QUOTE(Junior83 @ Feb 27 2009, 07:33 AM)
Crude oil rally: $45.22  + 6.40%

Will CPO ride on the wave  hmm.gif
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my 2 cents worth...

I think the crude oil factor especially in terms of flactuations are insignificant facvtor now, generally the Plantation Sector is more worried about supply and demand rather than an increasing Crude Oil price. Most biodiesel plants r prolly on the verge of closing down, ever since palm oil price hovering around Rm 2K and below.

My forecast is the price will gradually depreciate from 1800 +/- to about 1600 +/- by late Jun/July 09, being the end of the El Nina/Lila whatever its called effect over the Asia Pac region causing a dop in production. Remember there was a supply glut around Dec 08.

July 09 to Dec 09 contracts for FCPO, is going to be really tough time for plantation.Nov & Dec 09 FCPO contracts being the most severely affected.

News
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...54&sec=business

I've liquidated most of my plantation stoks waiting for the year end, currently picking up on stocks like TM resorts hopeful of a turn around for 4 Q 09...

This post has been edited by aurora97: Feb 27 2009, 09:24 AM
aurora97
post Feb 27 2009, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(eltaria @ Feb 27 2009, 11:55 AM)
Possibly too much bad press negative images associated with TM...

At least it shows they know their old name stinks dee.. now instead of just changing name, give us better services!!
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I think TMI is giving more bad name compared to TMI, they were better of as a group rather than being seperated.

Little bit of set back and TM want TMI (whomever initiated the name change regardless) to be dis-associated from them, what a thumbs up given by TM to its sister company literally speaking being disowned.

TMI just broke its 1-6-12 mhs low, my opinion is TMI (or whatever name in future its called) will conitnue its south bound journey.

My target 2.40 +/-, lost of confidence with TMI.

This post has been edited by aurora97: Feb 27 2009, 12:08 PM
aurora97
post Mar 2 2009, 09:47 AM

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Resorts almost hitting 12 mths low ... should be interesting ...

TMI just koyak... 1-6-12 mths low.. now no telling where it will go from there ... watch for the miricale turn around like what TM did .. becareful with this counter ...

Gd luck hunting.
aurora97
post Mar 2 2009, 10:10 AM

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all in good time, now we r going to see a recap on the Nov/Dec 08 crash ...

watch the market bleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeddd...


aurora97
post Mar 2 2009, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(Neo18 @ Mar 2 2009, 10:15 AM)
i smell blood.. what to buy? what to buy?
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must be some really bad news out there, most likely corporate results spooked all the FF to swing into full gear of massive selling.. (although volume wise it looks like its pretty thin.)

A sign of weakness in the Plantation sector...
look at crude oil btw, its slumping faster than expected... should hit 1700 +/- within this week alone.

March Mega Sale?

This post has been edited by aurora97: Mar 2 2009, 10:29 AM
aurora97
post Mar 2 2009, 03:00 PM

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For plantation...

i think essentially now, with the current market outlook there is speculation that there will be major acquisition opportunities in the horizon and small plantation will be gobbled up by leading plantation counters.

However Major Plantations are not in themselves free of trouble..

KLK with its write off (i think is more or less insignificant)

Boustead (too diversified, other divisions eating into a chunk of the plantation division)

Sime (same like boustead)

Asiatic (this company is interesting, with backing from its sister companies and cash in bank)

IOICorp (debt riddle?, i think most of its funds will be allocated for the acquisition of its property arm)

***

Rumours of target companies...
NPC (a company in sbh)
Rview (a company in Perak)

***

Basically means who has the deepest cash hoard and who has the weakest financials would be potential targets for acquisition, should see some action 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q when CPO prices are the weakest.

1Q 2010 should review who r most vulnerable, bottom line counts,

This post has been edited by aurora97: Mar 2 2009, 03:02 PM
aurora97
post Mar 2 2009, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(Neo18 @ Mar 2 2009, 03:56 PM)
pretty tempted to dip my hand into market leh..

but i think blood will spill until this friday
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my suggestion is just continue to talk three and talk four, watch the index also no use all so red now..

My 2 cents worth, today down by 20 pts whats the likelyhood that its going to rush back up? Anyways 20 pts is really not that bad, unlikely to resemble anything close to a Nov/Dec 08 now thats a crash... the current one is just peanuts.

should be interesting if it KLCI ever hits 500 pts?
aurora97
post Mar 2 2009, 04:04 PM

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http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html

Ladies and gentleman, we r in recession mode.

time to buy extra food stocks, safe up those pennies and dollars, tighten those belts and eat grass if necessary.

Let see how EPF and valueCap get out of this mess.



This post has been edited by aurora97: Mar 2 2009, 04:06 PM
aurora97
post Mar 2 2009, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 2 2009, 04:10 PM)
Aiya, all people already knew recession already in, ain't electronic company only work 4 days a week only and VSS around.

Aiseh, we are not entering war ler, don't need until buy extra food stocks to store in house during recession. The chance of goods price going down is high during recession.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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its nicer when some research house admits it out loud in local media, cr8's a panic and doubt and fear among investors...

QUOTE(Junior83 @ Mar 2 2009, 04:25 PM)
BTW, i'm wondering how the second stimulus will be?

Will it able to lift the sentiment  hmm.gif
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The stimulus pack no matter how big it ise, it will become like what the previous stimulus pack did... hot air...

Its meassure r either too protective of local industries, if it does put monies in the Rakyat's pocket would only encourage people to save rather than to spend.

if its directed at local industries, the companies would still continue to lay off workers or use whatever means to reduce cost and use gov stimulus to keep the company profitable.

besides most of this stimulus pack wont be felt instantly, but will help in terms of how fast we r able to get out of a recession compared to our neighbours.


Added on March 2, 2009, 4:36 pm
QUOTE(ts1 @ Mar 2 2009, 04:29 PM)
2nd stimulus maybe NTR may buy more weapon due to recession need to protect the ppl... tongue.gif
aldy got buy rocker launchers recently.. drool.gif
well, the most will be retrenchment fund, employer tax deductions etc..fav word lo, liberalise trade  tongue.gif
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would be sexy though having the 4 woman in army n police pose with rocket launchers? Sexy ! drool.gif

This post has been edited by aurora97: Mar 2 2009, 04:36 PM
aurora97
post Mar 2 2009, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(lowyat888 @ Mar 2 2009, 04:37 PM)
is the stock market in for another circuit breaker?

the shares looks like not moving at all
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where got so soon, i think the trigger is either 30 pts or 60 pts ...

still long long long way from hitting the trigger
aurora97
post Mar 2 2009, 04:40 PM

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Circuit braker
http://www.klse.com.my/website/bm/trading/...it_breaker.html
aurora97
post Mar 2 2009, 04:50 PM

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all the red in my screen is starting to hurt my eyes...
aurora97
post Mar 2 2009, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Mar 2 2009, 04:54 PM)
aurora97, we were still talking about TMI touching its bottom at 3.00 on last week, aren't we...was hesitating to pick up or not...

luckily we didnt enter  sweat.gif
*
yeah glad we did, I was more or less about 40% chance of picking up TMI but was waiting for 3.02 in fact was queueing somewhere there but after the reports came out i think late evening same day. I made a 360 degree turn Cherroy & not forgetting fellow forumners did pointed out alot of essential stuff that made me ditched the idea of picking up TMI.

I wont say it was a stroke of geniues that made me change my mind, in the first place we made a pretty bad decision but inline with our comments TMI is only good for intra day and short term play. Pure luck was what that saved us from a disasterous decision making.

Thx to all the rakan rakan sepejuang , Cherroy & Pana tongue.gif

Like i said previous TMI is going to hit bottom like what TM did few months back, no necessarily all is lost but TMI and TM has two very significant differences the bottom line. TMI i think is really in trouble this time around unlike TM.

TMI might make a U turn...

Btw i am still holding on tightly to those TM shares i bought around 2.95 before it dropped to 2.75 previously.

Other than that TM and resort I hold only cash.



This post has been edited by aurora97: Mar 2 2009, 05:04 PM

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