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 Stock market V19, Chit chat in the market

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kmarc
post Dec 6 2008, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(sharesa @ Dec 6 2008, 09:49 AM)
sad.gif sigh.....you guys are so energetic, even in such a pathetic market.
I am so listless already,  rclxub.gif even Dow up I feel numb. Dow up, our market still bearish. Imagine Dow down, our market will trend even worse...! sweat.gif
Our stock market volume is so poor, no volume means lower chances of recovery. Worldwide, fund managers' cash are lacking, I don't think when global recovery takes place , they are going to invest here first, we will be one of the last, just like 2 years' ago's boom, KLSE was always  playing catch up . So, this time when worldwide recovers, ours will catch up lagging behind 2 years. I need to prepare myself mentally to hold at least 5 years doh.gif
*
I guess that's to be expected in this bear market. Some reports are saying the Asian stock markets will probably recover before the West..... late in and early out.... hope so as I don't want to wait to long to see some good news!

QUOTE(simplesmile @ Dec 6 2008, 09:55 AM)
My hands so itchy la. Been on the sidelines for almost 2 weeks now. Plus Monday holiday. So boring.
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Besides some counters like YTLPOWER, I think you didn't miss anything. Shares has been dropping for the past 2 weeks. Hope to see a small rebound as I want to goreng my KNM stocks.... laugh.gif

Edit : Would it be correct to say that comparing stocks to unit trust, stocks would be a better buy at the moment for the long-term? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 6 2008, 10:08 AM
kmarc
post Dec 6 2008, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(PBB boleh @ Dec 6 2008, 10:27 AM)
Heard from my friend who has investment in Unit Trust that he has lost between 30% to 60% from different funds this year. This has more or less wipe out all the gains that has been building up over the years for him.

I guess UT is for you if don't have time to monitor or want exposure to markets otherwise not avaliable (like those china funds)
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That's also true for stocks where they have dropped quite a lot.

What I'm asking is, at this time, would it be correct to say that given a choice, shares would be a better pick rather than unit trust for maximum profitability in the long run? hmm.gif (sorry if the question is so noob blush.gif )

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 6 2008, 10:32 AM
kmarc
post Dec 6 2008, 11:35 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 6 2008, 11:01 AM)
If compared to some fundamental good stocks, then stock outperform UT generally.

As one major disadvantage of UT, is its management fee. If the stock you hold not rising, then you breakeven, but in UT, due to the management fee, you will lose 1.5% annually, so if the stock is not moving 10 years, then in stock, you breakeven, in UT, you lose 15% already, no including initial service charges of 5% compared to 1.5% commission of stock trading.

UT portfolio is more diversified, so it will normalise both upside and downside. You holding 2 to 3 stocks in your hand, if those stocks surge 50%, then you gain 50%. But in UT, they have bunch of stock in their portfolio, 2 to 3 stocks surge 50%, won't able to result the fund gain 50%, as there might be other perform not so good or bad one, so other will normalise it which result fund only gain 20-30%.

But on the downside, if your holding stocks drop 50%, then you loss 50%, but if the UT portfolio is diversifed enough to have some stocks that are still performing quite good, then the fund performance might loss only 20%.
But currently, it is not the case in most funds, as recent stock market plunge is worldwide and across.

Only a handful of stocks are able to offset in recent downturn, locally and typically like BAT, F&N etc, which one hand finger already enough to count. tongue.gif
But the main problem and issue in stock & UT comparison is the stock pick, if you pick the wrong stock to invest then it could be a lot poorer than UT.

So can't totally which one is better, stock pick is the key.

Just my 2 cents.
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Thx for the excellent explanation. thumbup.gif

I would conclude that UT are cushioned more as compared to stocks. I understand the dividends are also less i.e. less risk, less returns and high risk, high returns (and loss!!)

Honestly, I do wished that good stocks drop a bit more than that so that I can buy them cheaper!! Including the ones you mentioned i.e. BAT & F&N, others are like public bank, BJTOTO, SIME, etc. I actually acquired SIME at RM5.00 (500 shares only) because it had a significant drop last week!!! My target price was below it's lowest price of RM5.50 but since it dropped so much, might as well stock up on it.... biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 6 2008, 11:38 AM
kmarc
post Dec 7 2008, 11:46 AM

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Here's a good read on our Malaysian's economy : http://www.malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/ (while you're there, can enjoy the pictures too! laugh.gif)

Read the part on "Proverbial stuff hitting the fan" written on last Friday. He concluded by saying that our economy MIGHT just show the full impact 3-6 months AFTER the rest of the world markets does.....

Hence, the conflicting reports (@ predictions) on how Malaysia's economy will perform.... some say we will not go into recession, some say "late in and early out" and some say poor economy for some time.... for me, I tend to believe the latter....

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 7 2008, 11:56 AM
kmarc
post Dec 8 2008, 09:52 PM

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And I'm going to miss the big rally tomorrow as I'll be busy..... sleep.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 8 2008, 09:52 PM
kmarc
post Dec 8 2008, 10:02 PM

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Maybe detached from DJIA but Asian stocks also rallied..... unless KLSE is so detached from everybody else, I predict that it will rally tomorrow....

Of course, that's my noob prediction.... wink.gif
kmarc
post Dec 9 2008, 05:04 PM

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Incredible! Other markets ended higher (yesterday) but not for KLSE..... 835.17 (-3.11, -0.37%).... sweat.gif

Both my KNM @ 0.40 & RESORT @2.20 matched today.... doh.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 9 2008, 05:05 PM
kmarc
post Dec 9 2008, 05:36 PM

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QUOTE(mo_meng @ Dec 9 2008, 05:04 PM)
if u hv extra money and plan to keep long term now really time to accumulate ur shares thumbup.gif


Added on December 9, 2008, 5:05 pm
thought u got KNM rite .. avg it down?
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Yup. Average down. My goreng counter cannot goreng.... cry.gif

@viper88 - wah! You're still making money in this bear market! thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 9 2008, 05:40 PM
kmarc
post Dec 9 2008, 09:35 PM

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Take a look at this : "Charts predict : Dow 40% Rally start on Dec 15!!"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28010476/site/14081545

Watch the video to see what the guy said....

Don't forget that it is only a prediction..... wink.gif

However, if it is true, I won't have enough time to reload my ammunition! cry.gif


kmarc
post Dec 10 2008, 12:00 PM

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Looking at the market, I'm gonna save some bullets for blue chips counter (after my next reload sad.gif)

Anybody got public bank shares? I still think their share price is high..... hmm.gif

Anything of interest happening in KLSE today?
kmarc
post Dec 10 2008, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(viper88 @ Dec 9 2008, 11:56 PM)
Made peanuts only today ....sad.gif

My resorts oso drop.. should have sell earlier when i noticed the selling pressure but i put too much confidence on
Resort huge cash support. Need to see how much lower it can go bfr i buy back some to average down.

icon_rolleyes.gif Cheers, icon_rolleyes.gif
v_viper88
*
Still earn ma..... not like me, all my stocks are still in my hands.... haven't sold any stocks yet, all buy buy buy..... sweat.gif
kmarc
post Dec 10 2008, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Dec 10 2008, 01:17 PM)
me have PBBANK.

and it is going to announce dividends in the upcoming Jan 09 biggrin.gif
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drool.gif drool.gif Please please price drop a bit so that I can buy cheaper..... then can shoot up as much as it wants! biggrin.gif
kmarc
post Dec 10 2008, 10:25 PM

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Here's some analysis of Oilcorp : http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/
kmarc
post Dec 11 2008, 10:11 PM

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From what I've read, a mini bull is coming..... around Jan-March 09.... after that, predicted to drop kaw kaw to new lows.....

At that time, make sure have lots of bullets to shoot! biggrin.gif
kmarc
post Dec 11 2008, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(mo_meng @ Dec 11 2008, 10:21 PM)
so shoot ur bullet now .. offload ur bullet at feb .. than sit there watch market
*
That's what I'm planning to do...... wink.gif

Don't forget to go for the good stocks.... smile.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 11 2008, 10:22 PM
kmarc
post Dec 11 2008, 10:30 PM

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I'm following the advices from here : http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html

If it is true, better offload everything after Q1.....

Also this one : http://www.cnbc.com/id/28172680

And don't forget the prediction that Dow might just have a mini bull run from mid of this month... would be interesting to see this prediction come true.... smile.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 11 2008, 10:34 PM
kmarc
post Dec 12 2008, 06:39 AM

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QUOTE(sampoo @ Dec 11 2008, 10:55 PM)
Hello guy, soalan bocor already lah. where got market will expose such the clue for u to earn the $$$ one.  rclxub.gif

Anyway, the rally is quit certain, but will not follow the time table as expected. Be well prepare. my advise is dun do daily trading, monthly trading is still ok. this will train ur patient and digest more good or bad news b4 enter or exit in/from the market.   brows.gif
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Those are just predictions la..... we are all aware that nobody knows the future of stock market trends..... tongue.gif

However, I think it is quite possible that KLSE will trend lower after the rally. You don't want to be caught IF KLSE crashes to new lows again....

QUOTE(kb2005 @ Dec 12 2008, 06:27 AM)
Which good stocks you think are good to buy ? biggrin.gif
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I haven't decided which ones to go for but these are the quotes from the links I posted:

"Its top defensive stock picks are Resorts World, PLUS Expressways, Carlsberg, Asia File, DiGi, TM, JT International, Public Bank, Berjaya Sports and KFC."

"Its top value stock picks are LCL Corp, KNM, Malaysia Airports, Kian Joo, QSR, Boustead Holdings, Gamuda, Tanjong, AirAsia and QL Resources."

In addition, I think SIME is not that bad.... I bought some at RM5.00, now shot up to RM5.50! rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 12 2008, 07:10 AM
kmarc
post Dec 12 2008, 09:33 AM

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QUOTE(Kamen Rider @ Dec 12 2008, 07:49 AM)
In my opinion, Resorts is not a defensice stock, counter down and nearly lost 40% from its peak this year and  its lowest was 2.14 and seems like no decent dividend is paid out all the while. And it has suffer from the global recession as the visitors arrival may decrease in future

As for good value stock, is Air Asia in this category, as it is a cyclic stock where always triggered down by the fuel hike factor.

hmm.gif
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I don't dare touch AirAsia.... huge debt + no dividends.... sweat.gif
kmarc
post Dec 13 2008, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(simplesmile @ Dec 13 2008, 03:40 PM)
What's a "bear rally"?
I know bear means stock market will drop.
A rally usually means stock market will go up.
A bear rally means...up or down?
*
To make it simple, a bear rally is just a small rally in the bear market.... wink.gif

I'm sure you know what a bull run is....

Another animal in stock trading is the cash cow wub.gif , which means the company is full of cash reserves.... biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 13 2008, 05:34 PM
kmarc
post Dec 14 2008, 07:31 AM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Dec 14 2008, 03:59 AM)
A bear rally means the market is rallying upwards as a correction while remaining in a bear market.

My tips for forumers:
(no you guys don't have to pay me a dime if you made money)

LONG financials, long commodities, long euro, long carry trade.

Dow to rally to 9500-10000 end of the month. Mark this post. You hear it from me first.
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I thought you previously advised forumers to sell all their stocks during this period? hmm.gif

Edit : I think a lot of us read news too and there are already many predictions that the Dow might rally soon.... we did not hear it from you first....

QUOTE(Irzani @ Dec 14 2008, 06:09 AM)
Hope it will effected KLCI too ..  sweat.gif
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TA securities has already predicted that KLSE will rally in Q1 '09.... possibly peak at 950-1050...

However, they also predicted that KLSE will then drop to new lows after that (around 550-770) in Q2-Q3 '09.... that would be a bad bad time to hold shares.... sleep.gif

Many people have also predicted that a bull run might be coming for the Dow (and other markets).... one even going to the extent of saying Dec 15 as the starting point!!!

Just remember that these are all predictions wink.gif

For me, I plan to keep my stocks until KLSE rallies (if it ever does), then sell off in Q1 '09 while buying some defensive stocks (the stocks that don't drop much) while waiting to see what happens in Q2/Q3....

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 14 2008, 02:31 PM

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