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 Airasia, Airasia

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darkknight81
post Aug 12 2008, 10:12 PM

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QUOTE(robertngo @ Aug 12 2008, 12:36 PM)
that time everyone also think Transmile is a good company mah, profit growing every year but later only found out ....  doh.gif  rclxub.gif
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Same like maybulk now. The only difference is transmile is air and maybulk is shipping. Both also control by robert kuok biggrin.gif
Brotherjoe
post Aug 12 2008, 10:25 PM

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QUOTE(robertngo @ Aug 12 2008, 11:36 AM)
that time everyone also think Transmile is a good company mah, profit growing every year but later only found out ....  doh.gif  rclxub.gif
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But transmile known to have an overstated profit earning.

QUOTE
Liong Sik must explain Transmile fraud
Jun 2, 07 5:22pm
Former cabinet minister Dr Ling Liong Sik should explain the Transmile accounting fraud, involving overstating profits up to RM530 million, said Opposition Leader Lim Kit Siang.

Ling, formerly MCA president, is chairperson of Transmile Corporation, a global aviation group, that has come under fire for overstating its profits.

A recent special audit carried out by Moores Rowland Risk Management Sdn. Bhd, showed that Transmile made pre-tax losses of RM126 million and RM77 million for 2006 and 2005, respectively, instead of pre-tax profits of RM207 million and RM120 million as originally reported – a total of RM530 million in overstatement.

“Liong Sik should explain how he is going to assume responsibility for the Enron-type ... fraud in Transmile,” said Kit Siang in a statement today.

Pos Malaysia & Services Holdings Bhd has warned that its earnings for the financial year ended Dec 31 may be affected by the reported overstatement of Transmile's sales revenue as the postal group owns 15.3% of Transmile.

“I am surprised that Pos Malaysia & Services Holdings Bhd has not admitted that its earnings for the financial year 2005 could also be affected,” said Lim.

Pos Malaysia reported a net profit of RM160.2 million for 2006 and RM145.3million for 2005.

Lim said that as a former senior cabinet minister – Liong was transport minister – Malaysians expect Liong Sik to be “a model of a responsible corporate player.”

He said Liong Sik should be “more forthcoming” and “make a clean breast” of his responsibilities and remunerations including waht he had drawn from Transmile in his capacity as chairperson.

Raise in Parliament

“Dr Ling Liong Sik was quite active in the past month ... [he was at] Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (Utar) campus in Kampar yesterday planting a Blue Pine tree,” said Lim.

“But he has been very reticent on what has been described as the biggest accounting and corporate scandal in recent times in Malaysia, even likened to the accounting fiasco of Enron and Worldcom,” he said.

He added that DAP will be raising the Transmile fraud in June’s parliamentary session.

Transmile closed 32% lower at RM6 yesterday from its RM8.90 pre-suspension level last Monday, causing massive losses to small-time investors.

Shocked by the outcome, Khazanah Nasional Bhd has ordered an inquiry into Transmile.

Khazanah unit’s Pos Malaysia, is the second largest investor in Transmile after Malaysia’s richest man, Robert Kuok.
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/68094
klmc
post Aug 12 2008, 11:40 PM

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hmmm, topic seems to have diverted to transmile .....

anyway ..seems like EPF has been selling at current range of prices - as far as i can tell , selling at 1.15 and above , while buying at 1.10-1.12
Lends more credence to the TP of 1.10

Latest filings by EPF
Acquired 05/08/2008 1,328,800
Disposed 05/08/2008 264,900
Disposed 06/08/2008 910,100



darkknight81
post Aug 13 2008, 08:13 AM

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QUOTE(klmc @ Aug 13 2008, 12:40 AM)
hmmm, topic seems to have diverted to transmile ..... 

anyway ..seems like EPF has been selling at current range of prices - as far as i can tell ,  selling at 1.15 and above , while buying at 1.10-1.12
Lends more credence to the TP of 1.10

Latest filings by EPF
Acquired 05/08/2008  1,328,800 
Disposed 05/08/2008  264,900 
Disposed 06/08/2008  910,100
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From what i know Airasia owe Malaysia Air port a big debt which i read in from "The Star" few months back. If you refer to EPS of AirAsia EPS last year is only 6 sen. Which mean the PE is quite high at PE about 18. Now they are having massive competition with MAS. Which i think MAS will win out in the long run (MAS has government back up). Maybe is good for shorterm. This stock is mostly for speculator.
sam85
post Aug 13 2008, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Aug 13 2008, 08:13 AM)
From what i know Airasia owe Malaysia Air port a big debt which i read in from "The Star" few months back. If you refer to EPS of AirAsia EPS last year is only 6 sen. Which mean the PE is quite high at PE about 18. Now they are having massive competition with MAS. Which i think MAS will win out in the long run (MAS has government back up). Maybe is good for shorterm. This stock is mostly for speculator.
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Ya, agreed that AA having debt with government airport, but this doesn't mean that company will closed down or bankrupt.
Speculator or not, i also not very sure. But i felt that MAS conventionally is offering 5 star flight service, so whether they k compete with AA in low cost flight, still too early to decide.

fyi, MAS flight cost per km is higher than AA.

my personal view, a company future very much depend on management prospect and experience. In future, low cost flight would be majority choice as nowadays lot and lot more middle class family afford for oversea travel with AA flight.
asambuffett
post Aug 13 2008, 08:41 PM

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If i read in the annual report ended June 2007.. its EPS was 21cents

The one that ended Dec 2007...its EPS was 18cents.

so hopefully if Im not mistaken..AA has a very good PE of 5 based on June 2007 earnings. thumbup.gif


The other reason to bet on AA is because of its Business Model (LCC)
LCC model follows the Southern Airline Model..which is the 1st LCC in the world.

Southern Airline has been profitable till today since it started 30 years ago and it has gone thru some recession period. notworthy.gif


cherroy
post Aug 13 2008, 09:14 PM

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QUOTE(sam85 @ Aug 13 2008, 07:42 PM)
my personal view, a company future very much depend on management prospect and experience. In future, low cost flight would be majority choice as nowadays lot and lot more middle class family afford for oversea travel with AA flight.
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I would say both cater different class of customers. Not everyone will choose low cost carrier as well.
Still a lot of mid to high end customers won't opt for low cost carrier as they can afford it and comfortable of service is something they are looking for. Especially those long haul flight and popular destination that cater for mid to high income people are the most lucrative and profitable flight for air carriers.

So both serve different sector of customers.

QUOTE(asambuffett @ Aug 13 2008, 08:41 PM)
If  i read in the annual report ended June 2007.. its EPS was 21cents

The one that ended Dec 2007...its EPS was 18cents.

so hopefully if Im not mistaken..AA has a very good PE of 5 based on June 2007 earnings. thumbup.gif

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Stock market is a forward looking mechanism, how low of previous PER won't affect the prospect of share price, it is the current and near future PER which matter most. So look for 2008 and expectation of 2009 PER is much better way to judge.

Don't mean it is good or not good, just highlight past PER means nothing much in stock market.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Aug 13 2008, 09:16 PM
okyjace
post Aug 13 2008, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(asambuffett @ Aug 13 2008, 09:41 PM)
If  i read in the annual report ended June 2007.. its EPS was 21cents

The one that ended Dec 2007...its EPS was 18cents.

so hopefully if Im not mistaken..AA has a very good PE of 5 based on June 2007 earnings. thumbup.gif
The other reason to bet on AA is because of its Business Model (LCC)
LCC model follows the Southern Airline Model..which is the 1st LCC in the world.

Southern Airline has been profitable till today since it started 30 years ago and it has gone thru some recession period.  notworthy.gif
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Like you, I"m bullish about AA. But my confidence stems from its solid business model and belief that AA is going to be around for a long time. I disagree this is a stock for short-term speculators because the best way to realize the benefits from a growing company is to hold it for medium to long term. Needless to say that the stock is pretty volatile, so it's not for the faint-hearted. In terms of EPS and P/E, I believe the valuation for many analysts for such airlines is based on non-GAAP earnings which excludes items like deferred taxes, forex gains/losses and other exceptional items. Hence, the P/E of 5 you have is technically correct but not one that many analysts would use when comparing other such airline companies. So at this moment in time, this stock probably isn't under-valued as you are suggesting.

YuNGSeNG
post Aug 13 2008, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Aug 12 2008, 10:12 PM)
Same like maybulk now. The only difference is transmile is air and maybulk is shipping. Both also control by robert kuok  biggrin.gif
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What happen with maybulk now ?

QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 13 2008, 09:14 PM)
I would say both cater different class of customers. Not everyone will choose low cost carrier as well.
Still a lot of mid to high end customers won't opt for low cost carrier as they can afford it and comfortable of service is something they are looking for. Especially those long haul flight and popular destination that cater for mid to high income people are the most lucrative and profitable flight for air carriers.

So both serve different sector of customers.
Stock market is a forward looking mechanism, how low of previous PER won't affect the prospect of share price, it is the current and near future PER which matter most. So look for 2008 and expectation of 2009 PER is much better way to judge.

Don't mean it is good or not good, just highlight past PER means nothing much in stock market.
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PER = ?
asambuffett
post Aug 14 2008, 12:26 AM

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QUOTE(okyjace @ Aug 13 2008, 11:00 PM)
Like you, I"m bullish about AA. But my confidence stems from its solid business model and belief that AA is going to be around for a long time....... ....  .....  Needless to say that the stock is pretty volatile, so it's not for the faint-hearted.
yup.....it turned Tony from Millionaire to Billionaire and back to Millionaire biggrin.gif

but since hes not a faint hearted person... I guess he'll be rewarded back the Billionaire title one day rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by asambuffett: Aug 14 2008, 09:20 AM
AdamG1981
post Aug 14 2008, 12:55 AM

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Tony's best bet is if the jet fuel prices can stabilize. Since overall demand for air travel in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand are declining, i wouldn't be overly too bullish about AA unless it cuts it capacity and defer its purchase of the remaining airbuses.

robertngo
post Aug 14 2008, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Aug 14 2008, 12:55 AM)
Tony's best bet is if the jet fuel prices can stabilize. Since overall demand for air travel in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand are declining, i wouldn't be overly too bullish about AA unless it cuts it capacity and defer its purchase of the remaining airbuses.
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Tony have different idea, while MAS is cutting capacity, AA is expanding and adding new plane to the fleet. where did you get the figure that air travel have declined?
klmc
post Aug 14 2008, 11:25 AM

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i think this counter moves at the whims and fancy of the guys at EPF .... no hope of it ever breaking past 1.16/1.17 if EPF continues selling at that price . On the flip side with EPF "seemingly" supporting at 1.10-1.12 , it wouldn't fall too far / fast
hanif444
post Aug 14 2008, 01:00 PM

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EPF start to sell their AA shares holding from previous 0.8+,and 0.7+...now they reliase profit rather than paper profit.
klmc
post Aug 14 2008, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(hanif444 @ Aug 14 2008, 01:00 PM)
EPF start to sell their AA shares holding from previous 0.8+,and 0.7+...now they reliase profit rather than paper profit.
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They aren't actually selling more than they are buying .... even when they sell on a day - they will buy back more than they have sold ... if they actually started disposing ALL of their AA shares - AA will become a 50 sen stock

YuNGSeNG
post Aug 14 2008, 10:14 PM

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Oil price drop again , good news for AA ?
hanif444
post Aug 15 2008, 09:13 AM

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stop green already..look like it stay..
klmc
post Aug 15 2008, 11:51 AM

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I think our market going to be like this only all the way till after permatang pauh ... maybe even all the way till after sept 16th
YuNGSeNG
post Aug 15 2008, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(klmc @ Aug 15 2008, 11:51 AM)
I think our market going to be like this only all the way till after permatang pauh ... maybe even all the way till after sept 16th
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I guess after 16th Sept , will worse... sweat.gif
klmc
post Aug 20 2008, 01:07 PM

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EPF trades... selling has become more than the buying ....

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