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 ICAP, traded price higher than NAV

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cherroy
post Nov 18 2012, 03:29 PM

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I have a rookie or newbie investor ask me, I find interesting, below summarise the conversation.

A: what is a ABC closed ended fund
I : Blar blar explain and tell fund is investing in value stock, or undervalued stocks, which can reap good profit over the long term.

A: (Seem understand what I explained), so now the fund holding large amount of cash, the reason?
I : Yes, some fund manager does hold cash for their strategic and marking viewing. As it may wait opportunity to buy as the manager may not that bullish and slight bearish about the market

A: There is a stock traded below its NAV around 20-30%, is it considered undervalued?
I: Yes, by definition, and in theory.

A: The stock is a closed ended fund, so wise to buy below 20-30% of its NAV?
I: It is a bargain.

A: The stock is performing well or having sterling performance since inception, and traded at discount, and the stock is ABC fund itself, so since ABC holding plenty of cash, why not ABC bought its own share, as it is a undervalued stock that traded below 20-30%? Isn't it fund can make even more money and objective is to buy undervalued stock?
Also isn't it ABC fund/stock itself had magnificent performance and perform well?
So isn't it, it is a good target to invest by the fund?

I: ........
cherroy
post Nov 19 2012, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(firee818 @ Nov 19 2012, 09:00 AM)
Manager of ABC: The managers of the closed ended funds always have an option to purchase of its own shares or to invest in other counters. However, the managers can option not to purchase own shares:-

a). To invest in other counters during downturn periods. In doing so, the co needs substantial amount  of reserve/cash to standby. If an rich cow close ended fund buys in own shares, it will limit its capability during the downturn periods. In doing so, the prediction/view of the future is very importance. Obviously, in this case, the manager of ABC feels that the market is going to do correction very soon.

b). If  ABC close end fund buys in own shares and it happens that the gap between its share price and NTA cannot be closed, then no only ABC cannot have substantial amout of fund to invest in other counters during downturn periods and its cash level will also be exhausted. Noted that the CI index is at the peak in Malaysian history. So, if the market is collapsing now (including ABC share price), then it cannot do anymore investment. The manager of the ABC fund cannot control the market sentiment including the ABC share price, so the best way is to wait for the better timing. REMEMBER to remain patient at the moment especially during this uncertain period. The TIMING and PATIENT are the most important criteria  in any share investment.

At the moment, they may have some laughing stocks to comment/rookie/mock on the ABC share price. Just remain patient and stay calm. We aim for long-term investment and this is our objective.
BTW, ABC close fund is not suitable for any short-term investors.
*
What A had asked is not about buying back to close the gap between NAV and share price.
What A had asked is investing in ABC fund itself.
Since ABC fund is a good long term investment, isn't it a good investment target by ABC fund itself, since it has a big discount of 20-30%. <--- this is the issue A had asked.
I cannot answer this, because as a fund, you look for good stock to invest, right? So why excluded ABC stock then?
Also it is merely another investment target, A had not asked to dump all the cash into it, just a portion like ordinary investment target.

So as mentioned above, if CI is peak now, and may collapse based on the above posted opinion or,
isn't it ordinary investor should avoid ABC share now as well?

As last part, the statement is viewing ABC fund is a long term investment and a good long term investment, and not suit for short term investors, isn't it suit to the ABC fund to invest in ABC share price? <----- this is key question asked by A, that I am speechless to answer to him as a experienced investors.

cherroy
post Nov 19 2012, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(firee818 @ Nov 19 2012, 02:13 PM)
Indeed,  the manager of ABC has considered to purchase its own shares if the difference between  its market price and NTA by 40% of its NTA. i.e. if NTA=RM 3.00, then the target price is about RM 1.80.

Don't ask me to prove where the source from, I just noticed somewhere in an article.
No one can predict the future including the manager of ABC.
While it is worth to invest some counters which is below its NTA, the potential investors themselves should also consider they surrounding enviroment.
There is no guarantee  profit for  any investment.
The manager of ABC also can't guarantee the future performance of ABC.
For investment, you need to judge yourself, you need to take the risk yourself, no one is forcing u to buy.

A simple methodlogy for invest ABC.
If u trust ABC manager, then go and buy.
If u don't trust ABC manger, then leave this counter, avoid this counter.

For investment in ABC, the manager of ABC urged u to look for long-term.
If u trust ABC manager and u buy in this counter. If later on its  price collapse, u need not to worry because u trust ABC manager. Maybe one day the price may recover and even over the price u had bought in. So, why u worried so much if u are looking for long-term?

Again, I would like to emphasize, if u are so worry about short-term ABC share price performance (e.g. share price collapse), then just leave this counter.
*
Indeed?

Yes, A trust ABC manager, but ABC manager may quit, then A cannot do anything. This is major fear for A.
as ABC manager is not the major shareholder, unlike ordinary UT, fund manager cannot be sacked by unit holder, but in closed ended fund, fund manager position is determined by board of director and board of director is determined by majority of shareholders, right?
Anyway, this should be not a major issue for A for now.

Also, there is no issue about short term or long term or guarantee profit or whatever, A fully aware of it.

Just A asked some common question, it is not nice for me to tell A, hey if you do not trust ABC manager, then leave it. Not doing good for me that already involved in stock market for decades to say like that.(may make me sound arrogant, as I am not WB or pronounced as brilliant investors as well, so make me look silly if I say like that).
A just asking nicely, not nice for me to answer back to him like that. smile.gif

A just needs asking some question that only make clear of his mind only.

Just like A had asked if confidence about the ABC stock, and the stock NAV may achieve double or triple from now, isn't it a good and bargain investment target? including, ABC fund itself.

If ABC fund may achieve and become NAV RM10.00 in 8 years or 10 years from RM3.00, so isn't it investing in ABC stock is indeed a good target to have?
So ABC fund itself should consider it, right? Why ABC fund not considered it?
Why need to wait 40% discount to the NAV?
A discount of 20% + potential (may) future good appreciation/performance from Rm3.00 to Rm10.00, is not good enough for ABC fund consideration? Not many stocks out there may have such a good performance.

The above some simple summarised questions are those I still scratching my head to answer to A.




cherroy
post Nov 19 2012, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(firee818 @ Nov 19 2012, 03:48 PM)
As I already mentioned, the timing to buy/sell any shares is very impt. The manager of ABC feels that the market is going to do correction (don't ask me to prove this) very soon. Indeed, the ABC has stopped purchase shares for a year already.
It is wiser to buy at the lower price during market correction.

Today 19/11/2012, price at RM 2.40
The manager think that the market is going to do correction, so let say 3 months later, the price
goes down to RM 1.50(assume below NTA 40%) , is it wiser to buy at that price???????

Whatever it is, if u buy ABC, u need to trust its management.
If u not satisfy with its performance, u can always doing investment at your own. No one can stop you and you performance may even exceed the ABC performance. smile.gif
*
Yes, I understand, it is not about trust or not trust, surely investing in stock market, you trust the company management already, same with UT or closed ended fund.

But I taught previously there is discussion on NAV vs share price issue, aka investors shouldn't care about share price is Rm1.50, or RM2.40, but purely look at NAV when investing... or no? rclxub.gif

A threw some question to me, so cannot be I just answer to him, don't ask too many question, if don't trust, leave it, or vice versa, trust, just invest.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 19 2012, 04:40 PM
cherroy
post Aug 22 2013, 10:40 PM

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Since it is a maiden dividend, I wonder can see any shareholders vote against the dividend or not. tongue.gif

Btw, the special dividend need to incur 25% tax?

This post has been edited by cherroy: Aug 22 2013, 10:47 PM
cherroy
post Aug 23 2013, 02:09 PM

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QUOTE(kinwing @ Aug 22 2013, 10:59 PM)
I won't oppose special dividend for the purpose of claiming the tax credit. I only oppose if the dividend was given the Board because they gave in under pressure of certain group of shareholders who cash for other purposes such as retirement instead of putting the money for long term investment.
*
I taught dividend give no value.
Once the dividend being distributed, NAV drop accordingly.

Somemore, those at high tax bracket need to pay tax for the dividend received.
9 cents x 0.75 = 6.75 cents, shareholder only receive 6.75 cents (if those not eligible for claiming tax credit one, or at high tax bracket whereby illegible to claim fully )

While NAV will be deducted 9 cents due to dividend given.

Why give dividend then?

cherroy
post Oct 31 2013, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Oct 30 2013, 11:01 AM)
IMO, losing to index is unacceptable for me sweat.gif

An investor can easily achieve higher than that.
*
A lot of investors, including fund managers, are underperforming index.

That's why some said, if do not know what stock to buy, better buy index ETF.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculati...-underperforms/

QUOTE
A report from Standard & Poor’s shows that 74% of actively managed U.S. equity funds underperformed the market over the past three years. Another  report shows that less than 5% of all top-performing funds remain in the top-quartile two years later.

cherroy
post Oct 31 2013, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Oct 31 2013, 03:27 AM)
as far as i know, only less than 5% investors in the world actually making profit in long run.
and our KLCI index up 100-200% in the past 10 to 15 years.
so if they able to match the index performance, meaning most investors should be making profit?....  hmm.gif
*
If A stock that was Rm1.00 10 years ago, now also Rm1.00 (without dividend given), and with everyday transaction gone on with millions of shares, means the value of the stock remain the same.
But with transaction of billion worth incurred over the 10 years period, there is commission charge incurred, means somebody need to lose money.
You do not need a rocket mathematics to count. tongue.gif

Index component is constantly changing over the time.
Generally those poor performance one being ditched out, while taking in good performance one.
So index tend to be trending high over the time, as constantly ditching poor and take in good one.

Just like Citi, Kodak were DJ component before.

Same with MAS that was KLCI 100 component stocks.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Oct 31 2013, 09:58 AM
cherroy
post Oct 13 2014, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(harmonics3 @ Oct 12 2014, 07:55 PM)
ok, it does achieve the awareness objective for iCAP as I started to find out more about iCAP after seeing newspaper ads.
*
As a closed ended fund, the objective is to make return from the investment made.

Branding and public awareness will make ordinary consumer based business good aka increase revenue eventually company can earn more profit.
But closed ended fund is not doing ordinary business, it is an investment.

Closed ended fund profit solely come from investment made.
Whether it is a hot selling cake fund or not, it doesn't affect the fund performance (NAV).

Don't get me wrong, not to say fund should or shouldn't make advertisement.

Just what I am try to highlight is that the awareness and advertisement may make public aware such a fund, but it doesn't affect nor can improve the fund performance.
Fund NAV appreciated or depreciated is solely because of its underlying invested asset.
cherroy
post Oct 13 2014, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Oct 13 2014, 03:16 PM)
Able to cover all expenses and let him spending like his own Company?
He has to understand iCapital Biz Berhad and his own fund company is 2 different entity, 2 different ownership and he has responsibility.

Do u know yesterday he defended himself on the share buyback issue, his answer is:-

What if Maxis buyback all its share? It left the telco business.
What if iCap buyback all its share? It left nothing.
*
It is better to distribute the cash as dividend to shareholders, instead buyback.

With consistent dividend each year + good fund performance = free publicity.

Just like some good high dividend stock out there, investors knew them well without need a single cent to advertise their company.


cherroy
post Nov 18 2014, 02:09 PM

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Seems like the saga between TTB and Laxey still there.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...from/?style=biz
cherroy
post Nov 18 2014, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Nov 18 2014, 02:36 PM)
Scary.. just imagine everyone voting to liquidate in a crash.
*
High redemption of mutual fund, open ended fund during market crash is quite a norm as well.
It is investors money, they decide what to do with their money. I don't see anything wrong nor scary about it.






cherroy
post Nov 18 2014, 09:13 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Nov 18 2014, 06:02 PM)
Look at his reply, it sound like he is representing the rest of shareholders.

Laxey and London has 11.39% stake in the Company, now they has the rights to vote against any resolution which they do not favor.

What TTB have to do now is obtain enough support to vote for Tunku instead ranting over in media.
Even major shareholders oppose also need to clarify?
*
Yalor, everyone has a right to vote or against any resolution, this is basic right of shareholders.

Shareholders shouldn't be just like stamping machine, accept whatever resolution thrown at them.

It is board of director that always need to answer to the shareholders to whatever resolution,
not the other way round, that shareholders need to give answer why they agree/object a resolution. rclxub.gif
cherroy
post Nov 22 2014, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Nov 21 2014, 10:53 PM)
If they vote to liquidate the fund you are invested in, you will be forced to liquidate as well. So anyone with a controlling interest has the power to tell you what to do with the money you invested with them tongue.gif
*
That's the disadvantage of closed ended fund, and one of many reason why closed ended fund is not popular due to lot of disadvantage compared to open ended mutual fund.
Having said that, it is same with ordinary listed company, if major shareholders voted yes on whatever resolution, minority which less than 50% is powerless to object as well.

Closed ended fund is good for fund manager to operate as
1. They don't need to worry about redemption issue.
2. Fund management fee collected is rather fixed due to fund size remain the same throughout, while open ended fund size vary each day due to redemption/reinvestment whereby fund manager normally collect management fee based on total asset they managed.

As investors, I prefer open ended,
as
a. I don't need to worry the price difference between NAV and share price.
b. I can redeem at anytime at any amount, as for closed ended fund, if there is no buyer in the market, I may need to sell at lower price in the open market which back to (a)


cherroy
post Dec 12 2014, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(HJebat @ Dec 12 2014, 10:36 PM)
As a common investor (I am la...maybe you're not), the KLCI benchmark is not relevant to me (absolutely my own opinion only)...for the reason that I'm not going to buy or hold the 30 companies that made up of the index (although theorically it is possible).

I think a more appropriate way to measure a stock performance is by setting a % target (example: gain 12% annually) or direct side-by-side performance comparison against another stock that I hold or intend to buy (example: target is gain 12%, ICAP achieves 10% vs PBBank achieves 15%, so ICAP underperformed PBBank). Due diligence & experience are needed because the nature of business are different...but likewise, the manner is similar if stack up against KLCI benchmark.

Just my logic...could be flawed.
*
As fund manager, indices generally is the ultimate benchmark how well the fund manager is performing.
If the manager perform worst than indices, why waste effort and money to invest with the fund manager, isn't it better off with just invest in indices?
(You can buy index nowadays through futures market, index ETF/fund etc).
Mind that fund manager charge annual management fee, it is not a "free" service offered, while buying index, you do not incur any management fee.

You cannot set a target of gain in stock investment, as no one has the ability to predict the stock is gaining or losing this year or next year.

The comparison is just like if one make a gain in investment of 3% pa over the long term, it is considered poor, as one is better off with putting the money in FD which also make 3%.
Why taking more risk while have the same return?

So it is same with fund manager, if fund manager performs worst than indices, one is better off with investing in indices.
Why spent more money to pay the fund manager, while you have alternative to have better gain without spending any money?

smile.gif
cherroy
post Dec 17 2014, 10:37 PM

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QUOTE(HJebat @ Dec 17 2014, 10:33 PM)
Which index can I invest to track KLCI?
*
FKLI
cherroy
post Dec 18 2014, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(HJebat @ Dec 17 2014, 11:16 PM)
Equity derivatives? shocking.gif Not something that I find pleasing to do sweat.gif

Any other options available to track KLCI?
*
FKLI is one of best tool to track, just because it is derivatives, doesn't mean it is dangerous, you just need to know how to manage.

Buy 1 lot FKLI, fork out a few K initial margin, prepare potential go reverse for margin top up, it is as same as taking out a ten K to invest in fund.
Every month just roll over the contract, as identical to holding long term on KLCI component stocks.

While there are other index fund as well available in the UT market.
cherroy
post Aug 23 2015, 08:59 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Aug 23 2015, 04:28 PM)
After a Long journey, finally TTB wish became a reality
*
The history data for KLCI,
1 Jan year, index

2007 -- 1096
2008 -- 1443
2009 -- 878
2010 -- 1272
2011 -- 1524
2012 -- 1523
2013 -- 1685
2014 -- 1865
2015 -- 1757

Currently at 1574, has not yet below 2012, 2011 level.


cherroy
post Aug 25 2015, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(mindful @ Aug 24 2015, 10:43 PM)
Why did you use 2011 and 2012 data? And I quoted its most recent newsletter, "in fact, the ceo of capital dynamics has, since 2014 , been described as the most bearish fund manager.....".
*
This topic started off 2008.

So just posted the data back to 2007.

Actually, the fund manager is right or not, doesn't matter too much for investors.

Investors of fund or shareholders didn't "enjoy" the bull run until 18xx, as fund was high position in cash
nor
investors of the fund get any benefit or profit even the manager indeed was right, as the fund (as far as I know), doesn't have position in shorting nor having put warrant/option.

So both way, investors/shareholders don't get profit, as fund price stagnant throughout for many years, nor having much dividend payout except one year, if not mistaken. Correct me if I am wrong.

So, what is benefit for shareholders when the fund manager is indeed brilliant right?
cherroy
post Aug 25 2015, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Aug 25 2015, 07:51 PM)
With the amount of fees he is raking in, I expect him to be fully invested right until 1850 point on index and sell at least 50% to wait for correction. Instead, he waited for correction since 2011. It is quite embarassing actually for a pro to say market is not cheap and could not find a single stock to invest in and yet market kept going for another 4 years. I think he was scarred by Parkson. Lost confidence. Wanted the safest time to enter and missed the boat altogether. Then, keep cut and paste the return since inception.
*
2011 KLCI opened at 1524.

Today KLCI is 1563.

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