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 ICAP, traded price higher than NAV

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HJebat
post Aug 18 2012, 12:16 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Aug 17 2012, 09:51 AM)
Personally, i'm waiting for more "discount" tongue.gif - remember, it may be a looooooooong value trap
+ KLCI has been hitting new highs SEVERAL TIMES this month (irrational?)
+ gawd knows what will happen on GE (NAV may plummet?).
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Hi there, Wong! Wow, you've been promoted to Elite status. Congrats! rclxms.gif
Anyway, back to the essence of this topic. It is indeed a looooooooong discount period, since 2008. I bought some at an average price of RM1.55 when the economy tanked. I think if this discount period prolong till the GE is over or until end of next year; I'll dispose all shares. However, I'll hold them if the return reaches 15%.

PS: Are you an owner or a secret admirer of ICAP? tongue.gif


QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 17 2012, 07:12 PM)
when CI bottom and everyone fears that time, and if ICAP got above 26%(past few years discount range is 22%-27%) discount to NAV, then i'll start accumulate it.  biggrin.gif
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not trying to be a smart alec, but how do you know when the CI hits bottom?
HJebat
post Aug 18 2012, 11:15 AM

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Guys, I hope a random chat with my good friend Wong about ICAP will not turn into a cold war here icon_rolleyes.gif

We probably have different perspective & approach towards investing, so let's just flow naturally with our own game plan & maybe learn something new here. I happen to believe that way, we can go a long way towards improving our results...kau boleh!!! thumbup.gif

PS: pssst, Wong, I'll chat with you again about ICAP when things cool down a bit here (or when the GE is over...whichever comes first biggrin.gif ).
HJebat
post Aug 18 2012, 12:03 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Aug 18 2012, 11:25 AM)

Added on August 18, 2012, 11:29 am
Bwhahahah  laugh.gif, no cold war lar - just hunting down the discussion issue/item to solve/discuss better.
Sky's a veteran stock trader & investor - me, i'm just primarily a saver + a big pix fler with toes & fingers across asset classes (still lots to learn).
Thus, the things i post may be misconstrued sometimes as i write from my perspective and fellow forumers read from their perspective mar.

Got internal info on ICAP izzit bro HJebat? share share lar if have <poke><poke>
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No la. Just sembang-sembang kopitiam type of chat. Looking, sharing (and interrogating tongue.gif ) forummers' point of view & style of play against mine.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
HJebat
post Aug 22 2012, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(kinwing @ Aug 21 2012, 08:09 PM)
Yeah it's your call to sell so be it. I'm gladly I can continue to buy NAV at a discount of 20%, and with the kind of speed that NAV is growing at a CAGR of more than 18%, I'd be able to realise my investment at RM10 to RM12 in another 8 years at a cost of 20% cheaper, so my investment return would be at a CAGR of 20% in 2020.
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I know the above post was not intended for me, but it caught my attention because you brought up the issue deep in my heart (and the one which I intend to discuss with wongmunkeong before the great flame of wars innocent.gif )

Wong, are you still around? wave.gif

This question is for you & kinwing.

For discussion sake, let's just say:
a) I bought 1 lot of ICAP at 30% discount of NAV in 2010
b) I would like to keep it for 10 years (from 2010 to 2020)
c) TTB manages to grow ICAP's NAV at 18% CAGR for 10 straight years (2010 to 2020)
d) Along the road, ICAP's market price never catches up with its NAV (between 20-25% discount of NAV).

So, should I accumulate more of ICAP? (which would effectively increases my average buy price) or should I just sit on the sideline & sell my lot on the 10th year? (big profit but just 1 lot)

PS: kinwing, you have vested interest in ICAP? and here's a long shot: are you TTB tongue.gif ?
HJebat
post Aug 23 2012, 09:20 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Aug 22 2012, 08:36 AM)
Personally, i'd be happy if i executed (a) to (d)
Reason?
If i bought even at 30% discount of NAV
AND the NAV keeps growing at 18%pa CAGR for 10 years till 2020
AND even if the market price still is still 30% discounted of NAV (ie. being equal discount % since the time i bought in)
it still means my returns is 18%pa
[attachmentid=3010469]

I'd buy that for a dollar drool.gif - 18% CAGR wor..

BTW, what flame war?  rclxub.gif Slightly heated bouncing of ideas / ideologies & thoughts only mar, usually happens when ideologies or methodologies collides sweat.gif
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So basically, you'll buy even when the market price is above your average buy price?

Base on your screen shot, let's say you buy 1 lot at RM0.70 in 2010. Hold it for 5 years. Then buy 1 more lot at RM1.60 in 2015. Now your average buy price is RM1.15. You'll keep buying as long as the NAV is below market price, even though by doing that you'll increase your average buy price? Tiok boh?

Not flame war la, it's flames of war - a miniature wargame laugh.gif acah-acah you only la...if not I'll type war of flames biggrin.gif
HJebat
post Aug 24 2012, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(kinwing @ Aug 23 2012, 09:57 PM)
Tiok, you should have bought ICAP when the market price is lower than its NAV despite your new average cost of investment would be more than your previous cost. Forget to mention, you have to be a very serious long term investor and willing to lock your fund for long long time one tongue.gif .
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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Aug 24 2012, 01:07 AM)
er.. i forget what screen shot i uploaded, other than a simple illustration of NAV and discounted 30% market price, getting old & foggy leh tongue.gif

Anyhow, yeah, i'd buy more EVEN if it increases my average buying price, as long as i buy at a high enough discount to be of value to me. Yeah yeah - some fellows' Entry methodology is buy when NAV or price is lower than average NAV held. To that, i throw in a wrench to screw things up - if the NAV or price NEVER goes low enough for 20 years leh. How?

Note - please factor in inflation and value of $ for realism of whether NAV or price will go low enough to be LOWER than one's average cost/price, ESPECIALLY if one has already been through 1 or 2 major down turn buys (ie. one's averaged price/cost is so low, how lar for the market price or NAV to be lower, thus never buy again for 20 to 30 years?)

No right/wrong - just my thinking a bit more serong than straight-line "buy only to lower OR when price is lower than, my average cost/price"  notworthy.gif

Er.. i'd buy ICAP or any good stocks/mutual fund/REITs/etc. on such basis, not just ICAP  brows.gif
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OK, noted. Thanks for the feedback. 1 more question (paiseh, paiseh).

Let's say I bought ICAP at 30% discount of NAV in 2010. By 2015, the discount hovers around 10-15% to NAV. If I accumulate more lot in 2015, does that considered as giving up my margin of safety/error by a few %? Meaning to say that my high discount rate (30%) would be reduced to 20-22%.
HJebat
post Aug 24 2012, 08:45 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Aug 24 2012, 11:37 AM)
er.. i'm unsure about KinWing & other fellow forumers but i tend to treat, evaluate & review EACH transaction separately, even if it's in the same investment.
eg.
first 2 times buying ICAP was coz of good lelong of > 25%.
3rd time may be due to way overloaded with cash/fixed income assets (compared to other classes of assets) and forced to get some good non-dividend equities. ICAP turned out to be the best bang for the buck, 15% discount to NAV, at that specific point in time compared to the rest of screened stocks and mutual funds for MY market.

Thus, at a specific point in time, the reasons of entry may differ, and as long as one follows one's over-arcing plans and entry methodologies (either value, programmatic, trend OR forced rebalancing due to waaaaaay overloaded in a certain asset class, etc.), i think it is good & flexible enough.
Just a thought - different folks, different strokes notworthy.gif
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OK, thanks for your response.

I think I know my stroke now (yours most probably the butterfly, breast, freestyle or backstroke...mine is ayam kena sembelih stroke laugh.gif ).
HJebat
post Aug 25 2012, 11:36 AM

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The heat is off...for today cool2.gif

Maybe someone will continue when the market price is 40% off the NAV...by then, the post might be lingering around buy/hold/sell, dividend, share buyback etc. issues whistling.gif
HJebat
post Nov 8 2012, 08:37 PM

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Some people might suffer from myopia laugh.gif The table & the reply given clearly shows TTB was countering laxey's point doh.gif

But how the management fee growth could be higher than that of NAV and vice versa got me rclxub.gif too.
HJebat
post Nov 10 2012, 07:07 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 10 2012, 03:41 PM)
AGM over.. TTB won, Laxey Partners failed... rclxms.gif
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You were there?

TTB FTW! bruce.gif

laxey's lousy! cool2.gif

Let's see what's their next move...
HJebat
post Nov 11 2012, 08:20 AM

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QUOTE(kinwing @ Nov 10 2012, 11:08 PM)
Good, I can buy more cheaper thumbup.gif .

When I talked to Tan Teng Boo personally today, I told him that my investment portfolio is performing better than him because I am buying in ICAP shares in discount, and I will continue to support him by buying more tongue.gif .
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Is ICAP the only stock in your investment portfolio? Just curious hmm.gif

This post has been edited by HJebat: Nov 11 2012, 08:22 AM
HJebat
post Oct 26 2013, 04:28 PM

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Did anyone here attend the AGM? Any notes to share?
HJebat
post Oct 27 2013, 09:07 PM

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QUOTE(czn @ Oct 27 2013, 06:56 PM)
Majority of the share owners of ICAP are still happy with Mr Tan.
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The overwhelming support from ICAP's shareowners are understandable as evidenced from the support TTB received during Laxey's attack.

Can elaborate some interesting contents/moments during TTB's presentation and the Q&A session?
HJebat
post Oct 28 2013, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(czn @ Oct 28 2013, 08:07 PM)
TTB said that the dividend payout recently was solely due to the tax credit balance.  It is one-off.  The duo listing of the fund is still on going.  When asked why the fund is sitting on a huge pile of cash, he explained that most of the counters in Bursa are rich in valuation.  He still holds on to Buffet's investment rule : Never lose money.
His presentation is mainly on macro economy of Malaysia and the America.
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Thanks for your response.

What about ICAP's investment portfolio? The latest annual report didn't mention anything about the portfolio, unlike previous years' ARs. Did TTB mention why he omitted that part during the AGM? At least the info is accessible for share owners to know what ICAP has bought, hold and sold for the past one year.
HJebat
post Oct 30 2013, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(czn @ Oct 29 2013, 09:29 AM)
Yes, TTB did talk briefly about the investment portfolio.  He did not want go too deep into the portfolio because that may affect the selling and buying price of the share if the other party know the next move of the fund.  Anyway, we have the Investor Day the next day to get the facts from the horse mouth (the CEOs of the companies).  The Investor Day drew a huge crowd especially TTB's talk where the hall was full packed until the door step.
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Can you recall what stocks did he bought & sold?
HJebat
post Jun 5 2014, 10:45 PM

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Hopefully TTB can provide some insight into the proposed dual-listed global fund during the 10th AGM.

Would like to know how the plan would narrow the discount gap between ICAP's price & its NAV.


HJebat
post Jun 6 2014, 08:41 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 6 2014, 05:03 PM)
dual listed may help, or may not help. Still, it's all depend on market. Market decide share price. A stock can trade at 90% discount to NAV if market look at it that way (either by ignoring it or negative perspective on its future or disappointed on its management or....something).  laugh.gif
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Maybe most of ICAP shareowners are hardcore TTB supporters. They accumulated ICAP at around RM1.20++ & are unwilling to sell since then laugh.gif

Back to the dual-listed global fund topic, we'll never know what is going to happen to the gap until TTB rolls out the fund. I'm expecting TTB to provide more infos regarding the free warrants attached to the fund & how it would benefit the shareowners of ICAP.
HJebat
post Sep 29 2014, 08:50 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 28 2014, 09:26 PM)
Any1 going for d AGM @ KLCC on 11/10?
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Are you a shareowner of ICAP?

If you are & intend to attend the AGM, bole kasi tolong satu favor ka? blush.gif
HJebat
post Sep 29 2014, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 29 2014, 09:57 AM)
Yup n will attend d AGM
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Tolong take note what TTB will present regarding the dual-listed global fund & the free warrants attached to the fund.

Then share share with me, ok ka? blush.gif
HJebat
post Oct 8 2014, 11:40 AM

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I fancy TTB's approach to invest:

1. Load up investing war chest

2. Identify high value targets

3. Wait for the right moment

4. Ready, aim & fire every round he has in his ammo

I think at this moment, he's taking position #3. When it's time to engage in combat, it's going to be one shot-one kill bruce.gif

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