QUOTE(suewong85 @ Sep 11 2013, 12:31 AM)
of course there are risks. that is why we do not dare to guarantee a fixed return, because things change.
fertilizer prices generally follow CPO prices. they go up when CPO prices go up, and down when CPO prices go down.
Not necessary, fertilizer is not only used for palm oil, but used for general crops, maybe less thn 10% is used for all palm oil plantations. The cost of fertilizer depends on price of rock phosphate (mined), MOP & urea (manufactured from natural gas). There is zero relation of fertilizer to palm oil ffb prices.
QUOTE(suewong85 @ Sep 11 2013, 12:31 AM)
FFB prices are fixed, and are published daily. I dont know how you got that impression that of selling above industry price.
Of course, you are saying that your scheme is better than listed oil palm plantations, if all of you share the same COST of production and SAME selling price, how can your projected earning be more than listed plantations. Oh and most listed plantations run their own palm oil mill, but you have to sell yous to an independent mill (which will take a cut), wouldn't your margin be much lesser?
QUOTE(suewong85 @ Sep 11 2013, 12:31 AM)
expected FFB? well, this question also ties into your question about peat. Peat costs a bit more to develop, but consequently, have a higher yield peer hectare too. You can plant about 128 trees per hectare on mineral soil, but about 158 on peat. We are conservatively looking to get about 24 mt/hectare, and that is what our projections are based on.
There has been many development in peat in the past few years. It's all about water management and compaction when it comes to peat. There are both pros and cons in both mineral soil and peat. Mineral is also very hilly and uneven, making harvesting harder. Peat is flat.
Nope the best soil to plant palm oil is alluvial soil (found in east sabah, south kalimantan and south sumatra) , peat soil is generally frown upon to plant palm oil. You get less yield per hectare, less OER per hectare so you will earn less because your cost per ton is higher. Also peat soil plantation are mostly not eligible for RPSO, and hence your fruit cannot demand a premium.
You are expecting 24ton per ha, but that is generally not able to be achieved on peat soil, look at Sarawak plantation & SOP, their yield per ha is generally less than 20 t/ha. If you look at plantation is south Sumatra & Kalimantan and also alluvial soil is perak area, you can generally achieve 23 to 25 t/ha.
Oh, you have not answered what is your expected OER rate?
QUOTE(suewong85 @ Sep 11 2013, 12:31 AM)
re: growing the company / cost per acre/hectare, i think that you are comparing apples to oranges. our business model is structured differently, and our aims are different too. investing in IOI / KLK will not give you higher dividends, and again, there is no guarantee that the share prices will go up.
In our case, after 20 years, the land of the plantation will be sold. Do you not think that land prices will appreciate in 20 years?
Why only focus on dividends, yes the land value will go up in 20 years. But if you invest in listed plantation, the AMOUNT of land per SHARE also goes up, TOGETHER with the value of the land. Which one is a better growth story?
Investing in this share farming scheme does not give your ownership rights, you don't even OWN the land & the trees on your plot. Investing in a listed company you have rights and protection as shareholder. Here you only have promises.
QUOTE(suewong85 @ Sep 11 2013, 12:31 AM)
also, our "price per acre", to use your metrics,
is inflated largely because of how our product is structured.
So now you AGREE that you are selling over priced land to investor. Plantation land (cleared & planted) in Miri Sarawak generally goes for 30k-35k per hectare. Yet you are selling to investor at 8k per 1/4 acre or 32k per acre or 79k per hectare. Wow at this prices, why bother to buy at Sarawak? You can get same fully planted matured palm oil at Perak alluvial soil....
ARe you sure in the end your dividends are not robbing perter to pay paul with the massive overpricing?