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 USD/MYR and SGD/MYR

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Wedchar2912
post Sep 27 2024, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(CommodoreAmiga @ Sep 27 2024, 02:45 PM)
If can hit RM3.5...ALL IN DUMP RM!!!!
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i will do the opposite... if usdmyr reach 3.5, i will convert everything out except the 1 million in EPF!!!!!
Wedchar2912
post Sep 27 2024, 07:37 PM

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QUOTE(CommodoreAmiga @ Sep 27 2024, 04:38 PM)
Thats what i meant bro...dump RM for USD and SGD...šŸ˜„
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ah sorry... i somehow read dump with an "in"... my bad... laugh.gif
Wedchar2912
post Sep 28 2024, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Sep 28 2024, 10:23 AM)
from the article... "we can finally buy a cheaper iPhone"... lol...
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As if cook will be so kind to reduce his profit margin.

I care more that my chicken rice goes down in price by 1rm. Then I can shout that see... Malaysia inflation is negative. Haha.
Wedchar2912
post Sep 30 2024, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 30 2024, 12:05 PM)
At 2.90 that is a rate of 2016, 8 years ago, wow really unbelievable. Too drastic also worrying.
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at first i thought 2.9 was refering to usdmyr... if its sgdmyr, who knows... most of the time investors or market looks at usdmyr and usdsgd.... hardly anyone look at sgdmyr cross except us malaysians and singaporeans.

number wise, if sgdmyr is going to be 2.9, there is a range where usdmyr and usdsgd can be at. if one set usdsgd = 1.1, then usdmyr is at 3.2 almost. possible? if it happens, but pretty sure half the businesses in malaysia will cry father and mom and ask for gov change as not competative in export...

then again, can usdsgd reach par? if can, then that would be an interesting new world as usdmyr is then at 2.9. Did Malaysia do anything so different that we managed to climb out of decades of mismanagement in just a few years?

This post has been edited by Wedchar2912: Sep 30 2024, 02:34 PM
Wedchar2912
post Sep 30 2024, 06:00 PM

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QUOTE(hksgmy @ Sep 30 2024, 04:28 PM)
It would be good if MYR hits 2.2 so I can convert the lot of ringgit I have stuck for decades and finally be rid of it. I can always buy at the dip in the future smile.gif
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Ah. At the day that SGDMYR is 2.2, what's your opinion usdsgd be at? 1.0 or 1.1 or 1.2 or 1.3?
Wedchar2912
post Sep 30 2024, 07:55 PM

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QUOTE(hksgmy @ Sep 30 2024, 06:33 PM)
Well, I do have some stocks denominated in USD so my dividends will now be worth less in SGD terms than they did before.

But it’s the way of the world… é£Žę°“č½®ęµč½¬.

Having said that, USD doesn’t occupy a large footprint insofar as my personal portfolio is concerned. I’m heavy on SGD and AUD as I have definite need for those currencies. So most of my passive returns are denominated in those 2 currencies.

MYR was a bit of an aberration… initially I harboured thoughts of returning to Malaysia but when my wife took up citizenship barely 2 years after we got our PRs it was clear she had neither the intention nor interest of ever returning home.

And after holding out for nearly 30 years, I’m joining her before the next leg of our journey which will take us to Australia for retirement.
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what i am trying to get at is more general macro economics rationalization... basically for sgdmyr to be at 2.2, it boils down to the relative long term growth of the 2 countries. From current 3.2X to 2.2, what are we really saying?

Same discussion if we wish to use AUDMYR for comparision. a view of SGDMYR at 2.2 would also imply AUDMYR being at around 2.0... which is why I always ask what is Malaysia doing so well to command such exchange rate?

your portfolio is right to be heavy in SGD and AUD, and in fact, should transition to more heavily into AUD... something towards the weight of like 60 to 70% as you enter your golden years/spending phrase. the good thing about your situation is that your wealth dwarf your spending requirement, so you do have more freedom to play with your wealth composition.
You definitely picked the right countries for your accumulation and spending phrase... earn in strenghtening currency and spend in weakenning currency during the 2 diff phrases... rclxms.gif

Wedchar2912
post Sep 30 2024, 08:45 PM

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QUOTE(lola88 @ Sep 30 2024, 08:06 PM)
I converted to USD and SGD to put in CSOP & Fullerton fund at Moomoo few mths ago. Should I withdraw all now and convert back to MYRšŸ˜… before MYR appreciates even more?
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CSOP is the tech etf right? while the Fullerton fund is the sgd fixed income fund?
reason I ask is because it all depends on your original intention and the risk reward you are seeking.


just me guessing...
if the csop is the tech etf, you can still hold as equity return is possible to overperform USDMYR movement. Incidentally, I am still holding and enjoying the super rally my FC asset is experiencing, as the ringgit appreciation is small vs the rally.

But for the Fullerton fund, if it is the sgd fixed income fund, then it is trickier. rates is expected to drop, which usually mean bond fund will do well. But the movement is more muted and may not beat SGDMYR movement. Then again, it may also beat.

Wedchar2912
post Sep 30 2024, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Sep 30 2024, 08:42 PM)
It's not that complicated, DXY is weakening so USD is weakening. When USD weakens with lower interest rate in US, big hedge funds flow their funds into emerging markets. Msia doesn't have to do anything, foreign funds just flow in and MYR strengthens. But our politicians like to take credits for this strengthening lol.

SGD is not strengthening against USD, it's just that USD is weak comparatively.
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so you are basically saying that nothing much has changed for Malaysia.... it is basically external factors, or specifically, just USD weakenning.
this part I agree...

but sgdmyr and audmyr at 2.2 and 2.0 respectively possible? or should sgdmyr and audmyr be much higher while usd weakenning... ?
Wedchar2912
post Sep 30 2024, 10:18 PM

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QUOTE(lola88 @ Sep 30 2024, 10:12 PM)
ah... its a usd mm fund... my bad...

then like what Ramjade said, fx movement may wipe out any interest/capital gain from the fed rate cut. you may want to consider redeploying it elsewhere like into a equity fund or convert back. But if your aim earlier was to keep funds overseas, then maybe u can still keep the funds overseas but invest it into something else.
(similar to what i said about the fullerton fund)
Wedchar2912
post Oct 2 2024, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(CommodoreAmiga @ Oct 2 2024, 02:08 PM)
Because they have the bigger guns. Nuff said.
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As long as they don't end up behaving like imperial England and start colonizing everyone.... With the excuse of bringing stability and civility everywhere.


Wedchar2912
post Oct 3 2024, 12:00 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 3 2024, 11:43 AM)
Luckily done my first batch šŸ˜”

Only can dream for 4.00 now...

Maybe next year only šŸ¤”
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lucky you... i dare not convert anymore....

really like what @hksgmy doc said... it is a love hate relationship now...
on one hand, wants usdmyr to appreciate back to 3.8 at least...
but on the other hand, usdmyr drop to 4.22XX from 4.1X is so so nice to look at for my portfolio value in ringgit terms.... suddenly get few % boost in valuation... blush.gif rclxub.gif
Wedchar2912
post Oct 3 2024, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(joice11 @ Oct 3 2024, 02:04 PM)
so what is the simple way to gain from this? buy US and keep it at home?
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the simpliest and yet quite risky a trade is to convert to usd and load up on chinese stocks... (either use etf or adr)... mind you, this is only if you believe in the FOMO momentum that is still ongoing regarding china.
or get some bond funds to profit from the us rate cut (this one seems less risky, but in reality not great vs fx movement).

buy usd and keep it at home is the dumbest way to go about doing it... it may end up being profitable, but very inefficient.

having said all these, I am not converting anything anymore... just telling you the different ways.
Wedchar2912
post Oct 3 2024, 08:15 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Oct 3 2024, 06:45 PM)
every time you buy on news, you are already 50% late n risky...

trend is your friend until it ends...
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how many would have entered earlier this year? all the doom and gloom about china being uninvestible and the only game in town is the AI boom story...

the chap wanted to know what he can do with his usd holding if he converts... just sharing a few options... he can pick whichever view he likes... properties, energy, inflation... recession... just look for the type of underlying based on the view...

everyone else who is already positioned, just sit and watch the trend to run its course... brows.gif

This post has been edited by Wedchar2912: Oct 3 2024, 08:20 PM
Wedchar2912
post Oct 4 2024, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 4 2024, 12:27 PM)
Actually the strengthen of MYR is mainly because of US fed rates cuts...

But now with lower chance of rates cuts & increase of risk thanks to conflict going on... USD become safe heaven for many...
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doubt fed can afford to not continue the sequence and speed of rate cut... to do a double cut suddenly last month and then to turn around and say lower speed of rate cut, that is just irresponsible of the fed.
plus, whomever is the new president will not be happy to see US economy falters under their watch in the first few months at least.

nonetheless, at the end, my question remain consistent... did anything change in Malaysia to justify the weakenning, and now the so called pull back? proposing new taxes is actually worse.... so so silly our gov...
Wedchar2912
post Oct 6 2024, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(poooky @ Oct 6 2024, 02:20 PM)
How about MYR moneymatch to SG OCBC USD multi currency ACC to Tiger brokers/moomoo USD MMF. Then when time right right withdraw USD back to USD multi currency account, transfer USD to IBKR?
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just curious... did you search to see if the same usd mmf is available in IBKR?

based on my personal experience, it is better to have one's fund readily available in your primary trading platform so that one can invest immediately when time is right. ibkr have loads of options for usd cash like instruments, although i mainly just use t-bills when parking my usd there.
Wedchar2912
post Oct 7 2024, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Oct 7 2024, 11:08 AM)
Next time can ping me like this TOS laugh.gif

You type '@TOS' with square brackets around it. nod.gif

Yea, the cheapest way to park your funds in IBKR is just use BIL ETF. Park all your USD save for a couple of dollars for commissions in BIL ETF. Withdraw anytime during US premarket/aftermarket or during normal trading session then you can use it to purchase any US stocks/ETFs instantaneously, even with cash account, no need for T+1 settlement unless you need to withdraw the money out of IBKR account into say, your USD bank accounts.

Try to avoid fractional shares with BIL ETF yea... At worst, you will leave behind some 90ish USD as cash in your IBKR account. Fractional shares for stocks with 4 digits share prices are easier to trade, but for double digit unit price like the case of BIL ETF it's a hassle to buy and sell. After all, your goal is short-term liquidity management here...

As for tax, indeed as Medufsaid said, there is a 30% WHT when BIL credit the dividends to you every month, but around early February of the following year, IBKR will reverse the WHT and refund you the money in your USD cash account.

The expected return of BIL ETF is about 20 basis points below the 1-2 month US T-bill yields, mainly due to the 0.14% management fee charges from SSGA and another 0.05% from the lost in interests on interests due to the 30% withholding tax.

*In case you wonder how to compute the lost in interests on interests... here's the maths:

Assuming you start in February in year 0, you lose 5%/12 * 30% WHT * 5% , the second 5% being the interests on interests. In March, you lose 5%/12 * 30% WHT * 5% * (11/12), now you lose (11/12) of the annual interests on interests (you only got 11/12 of a year left to compound your interests on interests until next year's February, when IBKR refund you the 30% WHT), but the capital remains the same, i.e., 5%/12 month * 30% WHT. So the total opportunity cost, in simple interest terms, to first order effect (we ignore interests on interests on interests and .... on interests...  and... laugh.gif ), the sum of series is 5%/12 * 30% WHT * (1/12) * (12+11+10+...+1) = 0.04% p.a.

Do correct me if my maths is wrong... my head is spinning all over the place writing my PhD qualifying exam report... rclxub.gif
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great writeup... thumbsup.gif
Wedchar2912
post Oct 7 2024, 12:37 PM

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QUOTE(MystiqueLife @ Oct 7 2024, 12:22 PM)
So everyone converts MYR to USD but not the other way round? blink.gif
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it all depends on one's view... i would assume the bulk of us here are already exposed to overseas investment, and hence we already formed an opinion on the economic state of Malaysia vs elsewhere...

at the end, in the long run and especially true for a relatively open, trade heavy yet small economy like ours, our currency strength or weakness will depend on external vs internal factors.
for my case, until now I am still looking for a or a few good rationale on what has changed for malaysia over the last 2 years vs elsewhere that ringgit should appreciate back to 3.8 or 2.5.
Wedchar2912
post Oct 17 2024, 03:47 PM

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myr weaken slowly yet again against usd... 4.311X...
Wedchar2912
post Oct 17 2024, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Oct 17 2024, 03:56 PM)
wanna test 4.4... biggrin.gif
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no need to test lar... if reach 4.88 lagi best....

nothing has changed in malaysia, except KL nowadays can be once a while full of water... and the occasional holes... sinking holes...
Wedchar2912
post Oct 17 2024, 08:38 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Oct 17 2024, 08:27 PM)
when half the ppl lari tax... gov not enough money to do much...

bnm has actually relaxed a lot of regulations and restrictions on fx... meaning got confidence lah... yall just dunno what is happening.... start a lot of fud here and there... hahaha...

but recovery will be slow... if 4.88 i will convert all my usd back to myr... regret didn't convert enough... hahaha
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got confidence?

is it real confidence, or necessary if even start to attract FDI? i seem to remember that converting 3K rm with money changer nowadays must present IC... then again, I didn't convert money that way for a while already, so maybe that has changed.

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