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 Will you think the property market will fall soon?, will the landed property fall in 2024?

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CSW1990
post Aug 17 2022, 09:32 AM

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Those affordable unit below 600k (I mean affordable by M40) unlikely will drop. New property the price will “remain”but developer build smaller and smaller
bonedragon
post Aug 17 2022, 09:33 AM

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QUOTE(ericthai @ Aug 17 2022, 08:50 AM)
Correct!

Cement, construction worker cost, steel, iron are going up to build new properties.

So property prices will not crash, the most is go stable.
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Interesting logic
undentifiedKC
post Aug 17 2022, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(bonedragon @ Aug 17 2022, 09:33 AM)
Interesting logic
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It's fact lol, my wife working as QS, and she mention that even base level bangla labour cost oso RM90/day/person, and cement increase to around RM20/pack

needless to say sand, brick and steel/iron, so no doubt new unit price is maintain or going up


the onli price i can see going down is those slightly further like balakong, puchong meranti etc etc, prime area still sell like hot cake
bonedragon
post Aug 17 2022, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(undentifiedKC @ Aug 17 2022, 10:16 AM)
It's fact lol, my wife working as QS, and she mention that even base level bangla labour cost oso RM90/day/person, and cement increase to around RM20/pack

needless to say sand, brick and steel/iron, so no doubt new unit price is maintain or going up
the onli price i can see going down is those slightly further like balakong, puchong meranti etc etc, prime area still sell like hot cake
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The cost may be going up, if no transactions, property developers/sellers who need cash will still offload it. First by reducing margin, if not, then by taking a small loss. The cost is almost irrelevant. It's like saying cost of mining bitcoin is very high end of last year so the price will definitely not drop. Well, we all know what happened there.
mushigen
post Aug 17 2022, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(bonedragon @ Aug 17 2022, 10:35 AM)
The cost may be going up, if no transactions, property developers/sellers who need cash will still offload it. First by reducing margin, if not, then by taking a small loss. The cost is almost irrelevant. It's like saying cost of mining bitcoin is very high end of last year so the price will definitely not drop. Well, we all know what happened there.
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I see 2 scenarios.

1. Strong developers will hold on.
2. Weaker developers may go bust.

You may be right about how some of them are desperate enough to drop prices. Question is, what happens after this batch of "cheap" properties are sold out?
blek
post Aug 17 2022, 10:51 AM

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Developer already selling at future price. Still increase pricing?
gyver
post Aug 17 2022, 10:57 AM

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QUOTE(CSW1990 @ Aug 17 2022, 09:32 AM)
Those affordable unit below 600k (I mean affordable by M40) unlikely will drop. New property the price will “remain”but developer build smaller and smaller
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Smaller units with low quality building materials and so many defects for sure.
CSW1990
post Aug 17 2022, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(bonedragon @ Aug 17 2022, 10:35 AM)
The cost may be going up, if no transactions, property developers/sellers who need cash will still offload it. First by reducing margin, if not, then by taking a small loss. The cost is almost irrelevant. It's like saying cost of mining bitcoin is very high end of last year so the price will definitely not drop. Well, we all know what happened there.
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I think cannot compare with Bitcoin… Butcon, stock, rolek, etc these are not daily essential items and are for investment or more precisely say people buy them just for goreng, people won’t die without it of course one day these item price will collapse, and then recover and repeat

Wondering if the car, house, food, clothes will these things price ever drop sharply in the world that population keep grow explosively and in a country that considered stable( low risk of war, natural disaster) . one can survive without buying car but still have to pay transportation fee, one don’t have house still need have to pay rent.
Of course buy many properties for goreng purpose that one cannot afford will surely have higher risk as it has no difference to buying stock and Bitcoin.
tekkaus
post Aug 17 2022, 11:01 AM

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The property bubble will never burst!

It will be deflated from time to time but can never be fully punctured.
bonedragon
post Aug 17 2022, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(CSW1990 @ Aug 17 2022, 10:58 AM)
I think cannot compare with Bitcoin… Butcon, stock, rolek, etc these are not daily essential items and are for investment or more precisely say people buy them just for goreng, people won’t die without it of course one day these item price will collapse, and then recover and repeat

Wondering if the car, house, food, clothes will these things price ever drop sharply in the world that population keep grow explosively and in a country that considered stable( low risk of war, natural disaster) . one can survive without buying car but still have to pay transportation fee, one don’t have house still need have to pay rent.
Of course buy many properties for goreng purpose that one cannot afford will surely have higher risk as it has no difference to buying stock and Bitcoin.
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According to national statistics department, there are almost 2 million unoccupied homes in Malaysia. How essential and necessary are these homes? Not to mention property overhang which is at all-time high. Again, who needs these houses? Over 10-20 years yea probably these will be resolved. Small consolation for sellers who need money in next 6 months.

https://www.malaysianow.com/news/2022/07/29...noccupied-homes
CSW1990
post Aug 17 2022, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(bonedragon @ Aug 17 2022, 11:14 AM)
According to national statistics department, there are almost 2 million unoccupied homes in Malaysia. How essential and necessary are these homes? Not to mention property overhang which is at all-time high. Again, who needs these houses? Over 10-20 years yea probably these will be resolved. Small consolation for sellers who need money in next 6 months.

https://www.malaysianow.com/news/2022/07/29...noccupied-homes
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This 2 million unit unoccupied homes you can get it at 50% discount price? Property developer strategy is to build more and keep price up, will they give big discount just to clear these unsold overhang unit? It will be more like earn small lose big in long term for them. Like one for forummer said in earlier post, weak developer might die but not strong developer. Current property price still affordable for most Malaysian.
pillage2001
post Aug 17 2022, 11:28 AM

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As much as we don't want to admit it, Malaysians do have quite good holding power. I've been expecting prices to drop in PG for years now but they have proved me wrong again and again.
bonedragon
post Aug 17 2022, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(CSW1990 @ Aug 17 2022, 11:20 AM)
This 2 million unit unoccupied homes you can get it at 50% discount price? Property developer strategy is to build more and keep price up, will they give big discount just to clear these unsold overhang unit? It will be more like earn small lose big in long term for them. Like one for forummer said in earlier post, weak developer might die but not strong developer. Current property price still affordable for most Malaysian.
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Whether drops by 10% or 50% no one can predict. I think what we can say is that macros don't look good for continued appreciation in near term. In fact it's been stagnant for quite a few years. Developers are just one source of homes. Most of the unoccupied homes owned by people who want to goreng and have artificial holding power coz of the super low interest rate for the past 10-15 years. Will be interesting to see how the market behaves as BNM OPR continues increasing.

Also not sure why you will say property price is affordable for most Malaysian. Easy to lose sight of what 'most' Malaysian means in our society where it's very stratified not just by race but also income levels. Median household income is just RM5k per month.
Penang_J
post Aug 17 2022, 11:35 AM

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I from Penang and starting to see affordable houses selling from 400k to 500k. The normal condo bought by my friend 2 years ago at 600k and the new launch now is around 660k, which is about 10% increased.

I bought another condo during MCO around 600k+ at good location in Penang and the price increased to 800k (based on sub-sale market), not going to sell since planning to stay.

I also managed to rent out 3 of my parent's houses during MCO (full rental) and with everything increased in price, house will also increased...
Penang_J
post Aug 17 2022, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(pillage2001 @ Aug 17 2022, 11:28 AM)
As much as we don't want to admit it, Malaysians do have quite good holding power. I've been expecting prices to drop in PG for years now but they have proved me wrong again and again.
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Penang people are strong and solid cos of their background, education level, earning and foreign income etc. Many of my friends around my age 30 bought houses too, (8/10) already got properties and holding high position in company. I am happy to see that the affordable house starting to sell around 450k to 500k. The normal condo will be higher.
scorptim
post Aug 17 2022, 11:56 AM

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In all seriousness, unless you are blind you should notice since 2016 until now property prices have already been falling. Most areas already drop by around 20-30% from the peak price in 2015. So I really dunno what further fall or how much fall you guys are expecting before you guys willing to buy.

Mark my words, this downtrend will not be forever. Max until end 2023 only then prices will start going up again. If you miss this cycle downtrend be prepared to wait another 5-10 years for the next downtrend and even then prices will be more than the current downtrend price.
SUSAccord2018
post Aug 17 2022, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(bonedragon @ Aug 17 2022, 11:33 AM)
Whether drops by 10% or 50% no one can predict. I think what we can say is that macros don't look good for continued appreciation in near term. In fact it's been stagnant for quite a few years. Developers are just one source of homes. Most of the unoccupied homes owned by people who want to goreng and have artificial holding power coz of the super low interest rate for the past 10-15 years. Will be interesting to see how the market behaves as BNM OPR continues increasing.

Also not sure why you will say property price is affordable for most Malaysian. Easy to lose sight of what 'most' Malaysian means in our society where it's very stratified not just by race but also income levels. Median household income is just RM5k per month.
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in theory, the land prices will only appreciate, especially in strategic locations. the private property owner can lower the price can be due to various reasons such as owing ah long, urgent to sell out etc.

“Significant increase in raw material prices. While the price of resin has stabilised, the price of other raw materials such as copper, aluminium and steel has increased drastically by 38%, 46% and 76%, respectively, from November's calendar year 2020.25 Jan 2022

Rising raw material prices to be key challenge for Panasonichttps://themalaysianreserve.com › 2022/01/25 › rising-ra


You should look at the raw material prices instead of some house prices throughout the years.
CSW1990
post Aug 17 2022, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(bonedragon @ Aug 17 2022, 11:33 AM)
Whether drops by 10% or 50% no one can predict. I think what we can say is that macros don't look good for continued appreciation in near term. In fact it's been stagnant for quite a few years. Developers are just one source of homes. Most of the unoccupied homes owned by people who want to goreng and have artificial holding power coz of the super low interest rate for the past 10-15 years. Will be interesting to see how the market behaves as BNM OPR continues increasing.

Also not sure why you will say property price is affordable for most Malaysian. Easy to lose sight of what 'most' Malaysian means in our society where it's very stratified not just by race but also income levels. Median household income is just RM5k per month.
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Like what you said those unoccupied one are owned by people who want goreng and these are minor population

Malaysia property price now is too high and already cannot affordable by most Malaysian ??
thickface
post Aug 17 2022, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(scorptim @ Aug 17 2022, 11:56 AM)
In all seriousness, unless you are blind you should notice since 2016 until now property prices have already been falling. Most areas already drop by around 20-30% from the peak price in 2015. So I really dunno what further fall or how much fall you guys are expecting before you guys willing to buy.

Mark my words, this downtrend will not be forever. Max until end 2023 only then prices will start going up again. If you miss this cycle downtrend be prepared to wait another 5-10 years for the next downtrend and even then prices will be more than the current downtrend price.
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Yeap everyone just flabbergasted mention price keeps going up.

Honestly the price dropped when covid first hits Malaysia. It is evidently 20% and yet people keep waiting for longer time to purchase. That time was the most uncertain and prices were good. Now it's increasing alot especially when borders open. Better buy now if it's within your price range. I don't see any reason property prices will drop since covid was the worst hit to Malaysia economy so far. Every overseas investor just pull off from Msia at that time.
SUSguest16888
post Aug 17 2022, 12:41 PM

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QUOTE(jrshow @ Jul 14 2022, 02:59 PM)
Will you think the property market will fall soon?
Especially landed property ,hot cake area like subang jaya?
after the increasing on interest, inflation, covid..nvr endless issue in future..
if you have cash, will you go and buy the landed property to invest now?
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property will not drop as it is held mainly by rich people
they do not need to sell to fund their life
only a handlful sell below price as baits, but those are 90% scammers who take your deposit and runaway
maybe they don't even own it or they are multiple owners

the issue with these properties, they face value is high price, but almost zero transaction.

unless it is island effect like singapore , the price never drops , as population and immigration demand push them up


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