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 SG Savings Bond (SSB) & Treasury Bills (T-bills), Guaranteed by Singapore Government

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pub_yu
post Jan 6 2023, 09:56 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Jan 5 2023, 03:01 PM)
Very excellent. Welcome to the club! biggrin.gif

Ok. So there are 3 types of SG government securities for retail investors: SGS bond, SG T-bills, and SSB (Saving bonds). All 3 are exempted from tax in SG.

SGS bond are for those interested in holding for >2 years-20/30 years (mid-long term). They are like typical (government) bonds paying coupons semiannually. You can sell them in the secondary market via brokers if needed but the charges can be expensive for retail investors (especially CDP ones). Long-term bond prices are also more volatile as they are subject to greater uncertainty in interest rate movements.

SSB are similar to SGS as a long-term investment vehicle but differ in a few ways. Firstly, the principal (your initial investment) is protected/guaranteed (SGS bond prices fluctuate) and the tenure is fixed at 10 years. The coupons are payable semiannually (similar to SGS bonds) and the rates known in advance. There is no secondary market for SSB, which means you can only sell your bonds back to MAS. You may do so on a monthly basis (2 SGD service charge). Take note that to encourage long-term investment, MAS will force the SSB yield curve to slope upwards regardless of the prevalent market conditions. So, even if the long-term rates are lower than short-term ones (like currently), you will still find SSB rates lower in near term than in long-term. SSBs are only available for retail investor subscription, no institutional subscriptions are available. 

SSB and SGS bonds are for long-term investments. For short-term needs, you go for SG T-bills/treasury bills. 2 tenures are available: 6 months and 1 year. Everything is similar to SGS except the tenure is shorter. 

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How to buy? and Allotment methods

All 3 types of securities can be purchased via DBS/UOB/OCBC for free except SSB, where 2 SGD charge is levied for each SSB purchase and redemption. Max limit is 200k SGD for SSB, no max limit for T-bills/SGS. Minimum bid is 1000 SGD for each T-bills/SGS and 500 SGD for SSB.

SSBs and SGS bonds are available on monthly basis, 6M SG T-bills are offered biweekly and 1Y bills are offered on a quarterly basis. You can check the auctions and issuances calendar published by MAS annually: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...suance-calendar

SGS bonds and T-bills follow the "uniform price auction" method (similar to US T-bills) whereas SSB follows the "quantity ceiling"method.

For uniform price auction, you can choose to either submit non-competitive bids or competitive bids.
Allotment limits are detailed here: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/inve...s-are-conducted

For quantity ceiling format, kindly refer to the illustration here: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/inve...bscribed-issues

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How to sell?

SSB, as mentioned earlier, can only be sold to MAS on a monthly basis. You will received accrued interests up to the day you sell your bonds. https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/inve...s/how-to-redeem. The proceeds will be credited to your CDP-linked bank account at the beginning of the next month.

SGS and T-bills can be sold in secondary market but the fees are rather high as you can only sell to the primary dealers, i.e. DBS, UOB and OCBC. Bid/ask spreads are usually to the tune of 2%. (So, for a 4% 6-month bill, you get back your principal only).

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Resources

Do follow HWZ's thread on SSB and T-bills. They are pretty active.

SSB: https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/...006693/page-548

T-bills: https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/...-bills.6769601/

The SGS thread is less active however: https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/...s-bond.6773131/

IloveSSB is a recent website set up to forecast SSB rates: https://www.ilovessb.com/ You may use it to decide whether to swap an earlier SSB to a newer ones.

MAS official resources are easy-to-read and quite retail investor-friendly: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills

SG yields follow US yields closely. So you may want to look up US yield curves regularly to estimate the bids to be submitted for upcoming auctions. The HWZ forum threads also provide a wealth of resources and allow you to see what others are bidding and learn the dynamics of money flowing to and away from T-bills/SSB/SGS bonds (e.g. influence from CPF).

For short term T-bills, you can also rely on institutional money to estimate your bid levels. The 12-week MAS bill, which is available for institutions only, will have a weekly auction and the result is published 1 day or on the same day before the 6 month T-bills auction closes. The 12-week (3M) and 6M rates shouldn't differ too much.

Still another way is to look at FD levels in SG. The 6M and 1Y SG T-bill rate level should be similar prevalent 6 months/1 year FD rates in SG.

Other more advanced indicators include FX spread on SGD/USD rates in the coming months (to decide how close the SGS/T-bills rates are with respect to US rates), SORA rates etc. 

Hope that helps.
*
Wow, that's a lot to digest. Thanks for the efforts thumbup.gif
SUSTOS
post Jan 7 2023, 01:27 PM

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BT reports on the recent T-bill issuance.

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SUSTOS
post Jan 10 2023, 01:14 PM

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This week's MAS Bill auction results:

Tenure4-week12-week
Cut-off yield4.29%4.25%
Median yield4.15%4%
Average yield3.67%3.19%
BTC2.082.78

Source:

4-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-01-13

12-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-01-13


SUSTOS
post Jan 15 2023, 03:12 PM

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Stuffs from BT Weekend 14-150123:

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Unkerpanjang
post Jan 15 2023, 07:34 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Jan 15 2023, 03:12 PM)
Stuffs from BT Weekend 14-150123:

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
Bro TOS, pls shout out if you find rates increasing, add 1 buy...I no syiok, Jan 2023 yield low, man. But just hold lah, better than 0%. Kamsiah. Happy New Year.

user posted image

This post has been edited by Unkerpanjang: Jan 15 2023, 07:34 PM
SUSTOS
post Jan 16 2023, 10:54 AM

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Finally found what I have been looking for.

Bloomberg's FXFA function. It computes implied forward interest rates (or FX swap) based on covered carry trade between a low-yielding and high-yielding currency with an FX swap of similar tenure in place to lock in any FX movements that might have occurred throughout the tenure while assuming interest rate parity's no-arbitrage condition.

Onshore 6M implied yield is around 4.15-4.24% p.a. range. Similar-tenure offshore yields are in the 3.93-4% p.a. range. Data source is set to BGN for both spot and forward sources.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Will look at the charts again tomorrow after the MAS bill results are out.

This post has been edited by TOS: Jan 16 2023, 10:55 AM
SUSTOS
post Jan 17 2023, 01:01 PM

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This week's MAS Bill auction results:

Tenure4-week12-week
Cut-off yield4.2%4.21%
Median yield4%4.07%
Average yield3.37%3.52%
BTC2.52.58

Source:

4-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-01-20

12-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-01-20

This post has been edited by TOS: Jan 17 2023, 01:01 PM
SUSTOS
post Jan 17 2023, 06:13 PM

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So looking at the offshore figures for Bloomberg's FXFA function, eurocurrency markets are pricing a 6-month SGD yield of 3.92-3.98% p.a.

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Onshore SGD is yielding 4.24% p.a.

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I think I will bid 4.1% p.a. for this 6 month T-bill, allowing for CPF hot money influx. The 1M and 3M MAS bill BTC ratio remains elevated at 2.5-2.6 times the offered amount today. Institutional investors are demanding a lot, retailers shouldn't be far behind.
TaiGoh
post Jan 17 2023, 08:37 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Jan 17 2023, 06:13 PM)
So looking at the offshore figures for Bloomberg's FXFA function, eurocurrency markets are pricing a 6-month SGD yield of 3.92-3.98% p.a.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Onshore SGD is yielding 4.24% p.a.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


I think I will bid 4.1% p.a. for this 6 month T-bill, allowing for CPF hot money influx. The 1M and 3M MAS bill BTC ratio remains elevated at 2.5-2.6 times the offered amount today. Institutional investors are demanding a lot, retailers shouldn't be far behind.
*
If really falls under that range will rather put CIMB SG FD which gives 3.95% for 6 months..
Bid 4.15% few days back, if lower than that will just proceed with CIMB FD 12 Months.
The only drawback is min 10k placement.
SUSTOS
post Jan 17 2023, 09:10 PM

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QUOTE(TaiGoh @ Jan 17 2023, 08:37 PM)
If really falls under that range will rather put CIMB SG FD which gives 3.95% for 6 months..
Bid 4.15% few days back, if lower than that will just proceed with CIMB FD 12 Months.
The only drawback is min 10k placement.
*
Ya in terms of liquidity, CIMB SG does not impose penalty charges for premature uplift/withdrawal though you will only receive board rate interests up to withdrawal date and have to call the SG branch in person to uplift.

Source: https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/...#post-145619328

Speaking of 1 year, we have a 1 year T-bill currently opening too. You may also consider that if you don't have 10k SGD outright for CIMB SG placement.

This post has been edited by TOS: Jan 18 2023, 12:18 AM
SUSTOS
post Jan 18 2023, 01:19 PM

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4%... bangwall.gif

% of Competitive Applications at Cut-off AllottedApproximately 16%
% of Non-Competitive Applications Allotted100%
Bid-to-Cover Ratio2.61
Cut-off Yield (Price)4% p.a. (98.016)
Median Yield (Price)3.9% p.a. (98.066)
Average Yield (Price)2.71% p.a. (98.656)

Source: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-01-25

BTC ratio is very high at 2.61.
TSikanbilis
post Jan 18 2023, 01:37 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Jan 18 2023, 01:19 PM)
4%...  bangwall.gif

% of Competitive Applications at Cut-off AllottedApproximately 16%
% of Non-Competitive Applications Allotted100%
Bid-to-Cover Ratio2.61
Cut-off Yield (Price)4% p.a. (98.016)
Median Yield (Price)3.9% p.a. (98.066)
Average Yield (Price)2.71% p.a. (98.656)

Source: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-01-25

BTC ratio is very high at 2.61.
*
Yield getting lower and and lower.

Now i dont know what to bid for the 1 year t bill. Maybe around 4% also? hmm.gif
SUSTOS
post Jan 18 2023, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Jan 18 2023, 01:37 PM)
Yield getting lower and and lower.

Now i dont know what to bid for the 1 year t bill. Maybe around 4% also? hmm.gif
*
Your SG banker friend didn't give you any hint? tongue.gif

I will bid 4% p.a., that's the lowest I can accept, and also in line with Bloomberg's pricing. Not sure if the CPF people will come and kacau or not...
teslaman
post Jan 18 2023, 06:04 PM

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for low risk, what is the best option now?

1-2% a month is good extra
TSikanbilis
post Jan 18 2023, 07:33 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Jan 18 2023, 05:58 PM)
Your SG banker friend didn't give you any hint? tongue.gif

I will bid 4% p.a., that's the lowest I can accept, and also in line with Bloomberg's pricing. Not sure if the CPF people will come and kacau or not...
*
My banker friend told me DBS has FD 3.9% 5-month. Promo code SR5A biggrin.gif

Attached Image


SUSTOS
post Jan 18 2023, 07:40 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Jan 18 2023, 07:33 PM)
My banker friend told me DBS has FD 3.9% 5-month. Promo code SR5A  biggrin.gif

Attached Image
*
Minimum 20k SGD...
SUSTOS
post Jan 20 2023, 11:05 AM

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BT 190123 report on the latest T-bill auction.

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SUSTOS
post Jan 25 2023, 01:20 PM

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This week's MAS Bill auction results:

Tenure4-week12-week
Cut-off yield4.13%4.17%
Median yield4.03%4.07%
Average yield3.52%3.51%
BTC ratio2.392.3

Source:

4-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-01-27

12-week: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-01-27

MAS bill market has cooled down a bit. BTC ratio dropped to 2.3ish.

-------------------------------------

Today is last day to bid for 1-year T-bill. Make sure you do so before 9 pm. smile.gif

Will post the Bloomberg FXFA screenshot later this afternoon after market closes around 5pm to check the rates.

This post has been edited by TOS: Jan 25 2023, 01:21 PM
SUSTOS
post Jan 25 2023, 05:37 PM

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So FXFA suggests 1 year EuroSing yield of 3.66-3.9% and onshore yields of 3.97-3.99. (Both sources are set to BGN London)

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3.95% looks like a nice number. Will bid 3.95.

-------------------------------

CPF-OA button is now available, although it's greyed out at the moment, so can't be selected yet.

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This post has been edited by TOS: Jan 25 2023, 05:44 PM
SUSTOS
post Jan 26 2023, 01:04 PM

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3.87% laugh.gif

% of Competitive Applications at Cut-off AllottedApproximately 75%
% of Non-Competitive Applications Allotted100%
Bid-to-Cover Ratio2.91
Cut-off Yield (Price)3.87% p.a. (96.141)
Median Yield (Price)3.78% p.a. (96.23)
Average Yield (Price)3.53% p.a. (96.48)

Source: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auct...date=2023-01-31

BTC ratio is ridiculously high at 2.91. Almost 3 times oversubscribed.

This post has been edited by TOS: Jan 26 2023, 01:05 PM

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