What your assumption and current TLDM, TUDM plans problem, is the lack of $$$$$$$$, and continuing wasteful buys.
Let me talk about TLDM and TUDM plans first.
This is the actual current TLDM 15 to 5 plan
By 2040 if according to plan (remember those Gowinds need addittional $$$$$ not in the plan, and that means something needs to be deleted from the original plan to complete the Gowinds)
- 6 Gowinds by 2025
- 4 Chinese LMS
- 14 LMS batch 2 target price same as chinese LMS of RM250 million
- 4 submarines, with the 2 original scorpenes now 30 years old
- 6 Kedah class OPV
- 12 new PV of target price RM500 million
- 4 new LCS in 2036-2040
The whole cost of new LMS + PV is estimated to be at RM9.5 billion
This is the current TUDM CAP55 phase 1 2021-2030 plan
- 36 LCA/FLIT
- 1 sqn of used Hornets
- 6 new MPA
- 3 MALE UAV (this is too small a number)
- Medium range SAM
TUDM CAP55 phase 2 2031-2045
- Hornet replacement MRCA
- MRTT tanker
- CN-235 replacement for transport duties (this contradicts with CAP55 plan of just 2 types of transporter, A400M and C-130)
- More MALE UAV
- more MPA
- more Medium range SAM
QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 24 2021, 04:27 AM)
In my personal view, base on the plan they laid out, i can safely conclude that our adversery are CCP, Why CCP? CCP is playing the gate keeper for hundred of millions of middle class inviduals. They use it to strong arm everyone, challenge the international rules of law. What they scared off is losing power, the Chinese are now a higher middle income society, you know the kind of society that get rid of their dictators Just like in MY,SK & TW B4. What they wanted is to be like PAP. To keep the mandate of heaven they need to ensure wealth flowing to the citizens pocket as nationalism can only go so far as BN found out and thus the Strong arming & challenging international law. They are using maritime dispute as an excuse of rapid military buildup. Their ultimate aim is to control the choke point of Straits of Malacca,sunda, Makassar & senkuku to keep the wealth flowing and allowed them to be in power. Their whole bet relied on the assumption that others can't make up a united front challenging them. And thus why they are really pissed off at the US. The US are helping people to stand up by backing them up.
And thus, our defense policy is not we are defending ourselves by ourselves for ourselves, we are helping the western powers achieve their objective since we also shared the same interest & The western powers are helping us gurenteeing our security.
This is correct, but with a MENHAN that wants to quickly seek an audience with CCP to reassure malaysian stand on AUKUS issue, this will be difficult. We must not vote for people who are willing to collude with CCP.
QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 24 2021, 04:27 AM)
What ATM main priorities now is to acquire a robust, competent A2/AD capabilities. The 1st stage Is ASW capabilities. That's where gowind,MALE,MPA comes in. To achieve this, the priorities is quality over quantity. There's no point in having a swarm of MALE,MPA, sonar boat if they can't detect almost all subs. Not to mention playing quantities over quality is the Chinese speciality, since they have a clear advantage in those area. Playing the same game mean we are playing to lose.
planned ASW capability with just 6 Gowinds, 6 MPA, 3 MALE UAV, ?? ASW helicopters? We need more. Which is why I prefer for smaller ships that are actually cheaper than LMS batch 2 and OPV batch 2 that could run with the same speed and endurance with the Gowinds to give a bigger ASW detection area.
QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 24 2021, 04:27 AM)
Secondly, All security agency would operate a single type of helo for economic of scale purposes like the korean are doing. All heli be equip for but not with Airbus defense solutions so every helo can be turn into a quasi attack helo. This would be our primary ASuW platforms not just against maritime swarmed attack as helo base ASuW missiles are almost a thing with sea venoms.
It's hard for maritime Militia or less equip ship to counter help also helo are a good thing in counter incurgencies, surveillance & so on and it's useful for the utilities they provide. Sea venoms too would most likely be cheaper then a NSM, suitable for the low in the high low mix.
Helicopters can be easily shot down by 57mm, 76mm naval gunfire, missiles etc.
How many helicopters need to be bought to equip the multitude of LMS batch 2 and OPV batch 2?
Yes the Sea venom is cheaper than NSM, it can sink FACs at 20km, but shooting 110kg missiles at maritime swarms of fast boats? Can a helicopter carrying Sea venom even get near a corvette or frigate?
That orange thing is the sea venom. It is larger than the Sea Skua.
QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 24 2021, 04:27 AM)
Afterwards is AAW capabilities. This is where GBAD, BVR capable LCA, hibah hornets, ESSM ship comes in. Having all 3 allowed us to extend an umbrella of protection not just for ourselves, for the merchant ship but also to our allies who would use our EEZ as the staging stage. It's has to be sufficient enough to severely restrict, slow down, or endanger the opponent. And as such we solved the Arial intrusion problem. They can fly or sail around according to the international law that we recognize and with A2/AD abilities to impose.
ESSM corvette is survivable? Against Ballistic anti-ship missiles, Hypersonic anti-ship missiles or even latest Chinese Destroyers? We extend air defence umbrella to our allies? Probably should be the other way round with proper Air Defence Destroyers. ESSM on a corvette or frigate at best a self protection against conventional anti-ship missiles. No enemy figher jets is going to stray anywhere less than 100km from our corvettes or frigates, all anti-ship missile attacks would be made at ranges more than 100km. Can ESSM intercept Ballistic anti-ship missiles or Hypersonic anti-ship missiles? Can you even do A2/AD with corvettes/frigates/destroyers against superior threat like China?
How did Vietcong, Taliban subdue their bigger more powerful adversary? By going asymmetric. When the real shooting starts, it is the submarines, UUVs, and small ships like alexLMS dispersed among fishing villages and small islands planting mines, clandestinely shooting missiles will be our response to them.
QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 24 2021, 04:27 AM)
The quantities & variety parts can always be remedies by not playing sombong and accept a helping hands nor asking for help in the first place. We do have friends afterall, we do get Intel on whatever the Poseidon found, someone do kepochi and send AWACs that can send Intel to us when someone fly by B4, another are dismantling their jet to send us sparepart. But those helping hand can only come if we provide the security for them to operate here. Objective here is not the be another Taiwan or Philippines.
Yes we can get intel from Poseidons, which is why we should have more ASW capable ships instead.
AWACs are not used just to send intel. The "C" in AWACs is there for a reason. The AWACs will be used to "Control" the fighters. That is a sovereign capability we need to have, to be able to control interceptions through our own secure Network Centric capability.
Helping hand can be with different ways. We can build Replenishment Tankers to support friendly ships operating in SCS. A different ASW capability such as my proposed alexLMS that has the speed and range to sail together with allied frigates is another thing we can contribute. MALE UAV intel from our own bases means we have more time on station, unlike operations from bases further away.
QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 24 2021, 04:27 AM)
The next stage is forward deployable capabilities. We can scream how much a waste of money forward deployment is. But The fact to the matter is, if the Chinese occupied an island near Palawan, or mainland ASEAN or anyway near us. It's in our interest to have capabilities to deal with it. Inability to do so would allowed the Chinese to use to place as her own A2/AD and point a land attack missiles to us like they did to the Pinoy. The western army would retreats and we lost our EEZ as the Chinese can do whatever they wanted since they own the biggest gun around. Afterwards from 2030s onward the acquisition of deep strike capabilities with a destroyer, submarines, stealthy MRCA, AWACs , Adnan & pendekar replacement.
So you want to plan for us to forward deploy and attack chinese army occupying Palawan??????? Do you even realise how impossible that is? Please tell me how can we do that?
QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 24 2021, 04:27 AM)
OG 1525 plans of 18 FAC, 18 Corvette, 3LPD, 6 LCS & 2 subs at one time with vessel replace every 20 years Would change to 4 FAC, 8 Corvette, 6 frigates, 6 destroyers, 4 or 6 subs & 3 LPD replace every 30 years. Basically RMN will have similar vessel numbers as RSN. The 2LMS is likely a AAW & ASW Corvette, to operate in less contested waters compared to the gowind like SOM or Sulu sea. They the low in the high low, if we do get a type 31, it's the low and someone else need to provide the high in that mix.
So your ideal plan is for 4 FAC, 8 Corvette, 6 frigates, 6 destroyers, 4 or 6 subs & 3 LPD ?
FAC doctrine call for having big numbers. What is the mission for a fleet of just 4 FACs? Do we have the money for "destroyers"?? A destroyer will cost at least 1 billion dollars each. Even Australia will have just 3 Destroyers, how can we afford to have 6??
There are 2 ships in TLDM plan, LMS batch 2, and OPV batch 2.
LMS batch 2 of 70+m, less than 1000 tonnes, RM250 million. OPV batch 2, 90m+, 2000+ tonnes, RM500 million. So your plan for 2LMS is to be a corvette with AAW and ASW capability? Will there be plenty submarine operations in shallow SOM or Sulu Sea? Why you need dedicated AAW ESSM capability in a corvette operating in SOM when it could be protected by TUDM air cover?
Why do you need 3 LPD? To attack chinese army occupying Palawan?
My modest TLDM plan is just this
- 8x Gowind ASW frigate
- 4x Type 31 GP frigate to replace lekiu and kasturi, that should cost no more than 450 million dollars each fully armed.
- 24x alexLMS that can do FAC, ASW wingman to the Gowind, MCM wingman to OSV, minelaying and other multi purpose tasks. 25 million dollars each only.
- 2x Replenishment Tankers
- 2x MRSS, that is not a LPD. MRSS main task is to be able to rapidly deploy 1 whole mechanised battalion from west to east malaysia by just 1 ship. able to carry 100+ Gempita at once. Amphibious attack not main function.
- 3x OSV, large, cheap, used, less than 10 million dollars each. To be MCM mothership, Paskal mothership, emergency repair and rescue of TLDM ships hit by missiles in war, etc.
- 6x scorpenes
- 6x large UUVs
QUOTE(darth5zaft @ Sep 24 2021, 04:27 AM)
TD meanwhile need to assume 2 more roles, 1 as Marine Corp like JDF & Aussie are doing, 2nd as border enforcement agency, Thailand's pretty much are back playing the same game they did 70 years ago. TD also need to resume their konfrontasi era jobs of not allowing anyone to land on our shores. This would be useful for them to familiarize themselves to the area, allowed for increase in personel & equipment for a just in case scenario. TD are our last lines of defense afterall. So i don't agree on calls for them to be sacrifice and put last in the pecking order of defense acquisition.
As for MMEA they likely going to play deputy to navy in warfare However in area of peacetime patrol, CG is the lead agencies and the navy are there to help them. Just like how TD help the police & the police help the army during the emergency.The paskal are what the navy seal is while CG equivalent is a SWAT. One train to kill, the other train to safe hostage.
It would be useful if both use the same kind of ship but CG operate the gunboat version of the same vessel type thus allowing not just an economic of scale but also interoperability. For example
Last MP CG get tun Fatimah. this MP navy get sigma
This MP CG get Absalon in it support ship version. next MP type 31
This MP navy finish Gowind, next MP CG get Gowind OPV.
CG is the low in the high low mix. To play deputies, they need to be train as a brown water navy, their ship need to be equip with gun capable of AAW & ASW. They need to be train to performs sea denial, base and facilities protection against aireal bombardment, the use their mothership to install sea mines since navy ship aren't supposed to have through decks, even perform minesweepers in shallow waters.
TD does not need to be a Marine Corps. We just need to defend our shores and prevent others landing on it. Not actually the one who will do beach landings. At most we need to have forces like Sweden or Finland has, a specialized anti amphibious landing force.
Spending huge amounts of money just for the sake of "commonality" is false economics. Damen Sigma has nothing in common with Damen OPV design. Totally different hull form. Why MMEA need to have ABSALONs for 250 million dollars when you can buy 6 Korean 4000 tonnes OPV for the same price? How cheap can a Gowind based OPV be anyway?
Also how does a huge 100m mothership as proposed by MMEA (I disagree on this need to be expensive custom ship when a used OSV can do the same task) can discreetly install mines? Both MMEA and TLDM have a need for off the shelf OSVs, around 70-80m in length, no need for a custom ship for these roles.
We shouldn't waste money buying things that is adequate for day to day needs but are priced as much as fully armed ships. But having all MMEA ship capable of war capability (even TLDM chinese LMS 68 does not) will increase costs, acquisition and operational. We need very capable ships at reasonable costs that can do our day to day operational needs.
Our "what if" plan should be reasonable, we cannot plan on the impossible, like going head to head with china with Destroyers. Asymmetric response is the only logical response that we are capable to any attack by China.
Sep 22 2021, 09:23 AM
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