From my personal observation...I will keep PFEDF...since it his its lowest of about 0.22+ it has been moving up steadily & much faster than other funds.

For PIADF, i will keep it for now...though its up momentum its slower, but it is still in upward trend...so will put this in KIV for another 6 months and see how it go.

While these 2 funds are good income funds, but I am not so confident with their allocation.
They're spread into too many countries, so kind of too "diversified".
The performance will be mixed, so the return might not be so good.
I am eyeing either PRSF or PSF for long term

As PFEDF has 50% in Msia market and other invested in regional countries, its well diversified. I don't think this is too diversified, as regional markets may perform better than Msia in near future.

Some more, I invest in local share market...so, unit trust is the way for me to diversify my investment into regional markets.

do you guys realised PM fund prices go down very fast, but up very slow? Just my observation...

It's reacting on market performance and currently the market isn't in the bullish mood.

At this point of time, the portfolio would have been adjusted to reduce risk. So more of the fund has been shifted to bond/money market.
That is why when there is any short term recovery in the market, the funds will move in a lower proportion.

Technically, US might not be going into recession. In fact, people could sell commodities to move back to stocks or assets held in US currency.

Won't it be too late to sell shares to move to bond now especially you are involved in oversea investments ?

Stock markets are yardsticks of economies 6 to 12 months ahead.


For discussion purpose.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 4 2008, 09:29 AM

It is medium to long term investment don't worry about it :-)

I've been with PM for about 10 years... Just recently I realised it's 'slowed'

What I meant was that the fund managers have already moved the most of the funds into bond few months back.
That is why when market has a mild recovery, the funds tend to move slower in response.
If the fund managers see that the economy is going to be better, they will move back to equities.

My 2 sen says it's the other way round - stockmarkets are yardsticks of economies months after the events.

There are certainly those who invest in the stockmarkets with long term views (as things probably should be), but there are many others who don't. For eg, much of today's pricing in the stockmarkets is based on news that came out yesterday. The news that came out yesterday is say regarding, a US economic indicator of some sort for the previous months or quarters.

An even more curious phenomenon is the effect of earnings reports. You could get a good report showing how profits have increased, but the stock price fell (sometimes by quite a bit) because it did not meet analysts expectations, sometimes by just a minute amount. OK, you could say the fact that it did not meet expectations is a sign of things to come. You could also say the analysts simply got it wrong.

You are entitled to your own views. That is the beauty of the blog.

I believe there is a connection between the past, present and the future.

It is all up to the individual concerned, and I view the future seriously because I am still learning from W Buffet, and I subscribe to his ideas. I think he is forward thinker, seeing things that could happen in the future.

Investing would be made simpler if one is to consider only the past and the present, presuming there is no future.

Genting's casinos are packed at this moment, and yet people are looking forward to their future performance, like the oversea's investments etc.

Likewise, Maybank share price could go wild next week not because of attractive past and present valuations, Investors are generally not comfortable with the future of that country, Pakistan. If you fall in love with that country, then you may want buy more of Maybank's shares.


Not a right or wrong method either.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 4 2008, 03:09 PM

I don't disagree there.

I'm simply saying that stockmarkets are not good indicators of the underlying economic conditions because there is too much noise due to fear, greed, sentiment, and just plain speculation.

Can you name a STOCK EXCHANGE OF THIS WORLD that do not have the elements you just mentioned, Russia or China ?

Your statement: Stock markets are yardsticks of economies 6 to 12 months ahead.

My 2 sen: Stock markets are not good yardsticks of economies 6 to 12 months ahead.

You have every right to say so.

People live in a country where many things are under control , price control. Even the inflation is under control , mere 3%.

Other important things like Tolls are not under control for some political reasons.

Yes, I do agree with you it is a not good measurement, due to what I just mentioned.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 4 2008, 05:01 PM

hi howszat,

sky 1809 is valid for saying that the market are priced ahead of the real economies.

instead of picking your thoughts to justify it, you can read into cnbc or msn money.

after you read them and if you still chooses to believe it's not true, then it's so much better than you're not only at odds with sky 1809, but really seasoned traders, economist and those financial guys.

go, read it first and then see, if it is rationale or not.. yes? (it's priced forward, and not the other way round)

>> sky 1809 is valid for saying that the market are priced ahead of the real economies.

No arguments about the market being priced ahead/forward, in theory. It makes sense that you buy now based on what you believe, or more precisely hope, what the market is going to be like in the future. But that's not the point.

If you look at the stockmarkets over the past, say 6 months, the massive daily ups and downs are reactions to released data which measures either some productivity index, or some unemployment figure, or earnings/loss reports, etc - all of which measures things that have happened in the past.. People are using the past to predict the future. Not everyone behaves like that of course.

>> after you read them and if you still chooses to believe it's not true, then it's so much better than you're not only at odds with sky 1809, but really seasoned traders, economist and those financial guys.

You know, if those seasoned traders, economist and those financial guys really know what they are talking about, most people still would not have heard of the term "sub-prime" today. Speaking of financial guys, ever heard of Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Countrywide, Bear Stearns and their multi-billion losses?

>> go, read it first and then see, if it is rationale or not.. yes? (it's priced forward, and not the other way round)

Don't believe everything you read. It can be good to do the opposite thing. As Mr. Buffett said, "be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful".

Don't get me wrong - I don't claim to be an expert, in fact far from it. But I am saying "Stock markets are not good yardsticks/measurements/indicators of economies 6 to 12 months ahead.", simply because there are too many variables and unknowns. Priced ahead - yes. Good yardstick of what will actually be the case - no. The truth is, nobody really knows what will happen in the future.

After saying all that, I should clarify that I believe in the long term, the stockmarket is still a better bet as an investment than money in the bank.

Can you share a little bit more of your investment method for the benefits of us.

I believe in sharing and learning from others.

If you think long term basically you are talking about the future, and not long term in the past ?

Critising others but keeping everything to himself , to me is quilty , though not an offence.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: May 4 2008, 11:54 PM

yeah i know, but didn't you know that while the subprime mess is unfolding, the markets have already priced them onto those companies that you've mentioned below?

in other words, the market has already factored in the future earnings of all the mess and sell them down accordingly. did you know much much citigroup has lost values on their shares (even before the year 2008 is over?).

the key argument here is, the market priced the shares forward. citigroup multibillion losses is on both 'write downs' and their share prices.

the 'write downs' are marked-to-market but the shares reflected their future businesses. the collective businesses within the markets offers an insight to the general economy.

try not to just take a word like 'subprime' and bake a pie out of it.

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Added on May 4, 2008, 11:52 pmyes, i shouldn't believe everything i read without discernment. but would you at least allow me to believe what my former professor who taught me in strategic investment class/course?

the key word here is "discern".. that calls for wisdom. what buffett said was effectively a variant of "buy low, sell high"

This post has been edited by lwb: May 4 2008, 11:52 PM