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 Tesla shareholder discussion, Bears and Bulls are welcome

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TSkelvinlym
post Nov 9 2021, 05:26 PM

Yes, that was my car.
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QUOTE(lamode @ Nov 9 2021, 03:49 PM)
what broker u using?
DST ended, IBKR is now pre mkt at 5pm instead.
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Likely a mistake or imaginary trade. 😂
Hansel
post Nov 9 2021, 08:16 PM

Look at all my stars!!
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Tq gentlemen, for your replies,.... Yeah, it has stabilized. I'll have to enter again asap.
swiss228
post Nov 10 2021, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Nov 8 2021, 07:30 PM)
Did you close the short yet?

Falling later today on a different news  doh.gif
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Eked out a small profit by closing @ 1065/1050. It's helps that trading US stocks r so cheap using US stockbrokers. Malaysian stock brokerage charges are just too expensive: and no volatility as well
SUSxander83
post Nov 10 2021, 11:21 PM

Blast off like a rocket
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QUOTE(swiss228 @ Nov 10 2021, 11:18 AM)
Eked out a small profit by closing @ 1065/1050. It's helps that trading US stocks r so cheap using US stockbrokers. Malaysian stock brokerage charges are just too expensive: and no volatility as well
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Good short rclxms.gif

Watch for 1028 and if goes further down there is opportunity to short again

The options market are really crazy now on shorting
TSkelvinlym
post Nov 11 2021, 09:24 AM

Yes, that was my car.
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Elon has filed Form 4 declaring his sale on Monday. More selling was done on Tuesday. He has not finished selling his promised 10%.
lamode
post Dec 2 2021, 02:20 PM

anything could happen!
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buckle up guys..
roller coasters are safe, but will get hurt if you jump off half way. smile.gif
swiss228
post Dec 2 2021, 05:12 PM

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Tesla is still holding on to its trillion dollar valuation despite the fact that world markets are all down. Why this is so is truly a mystery to me. Their sales is just a fraction of Toyota but the mkt value of Toyota is a fraction of Tesla. And, we all know every major car manufacturer are into EVs. And, for a fact, no brand can capture 80% of the world's car market. Is Tesla's share value sustainable?
TSkelvinlym
post Dec 2 2021, 05:24 PM

Yes, that was my car.
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QUOTE(swiss228 @ Dec 2 2021, 05:12 PM)
Tesla is still holding on to its trillion dollar valuation despite the fact that world markets are all down. Why this is so is truly a mystery to me. Their sales is just a fraction of Toyota but the mkt value of Toyota is a fraction of Tesla. And, we all know every major car manufacturer are into EVs. And, for a fact, no brand can capture 80% of the world's car market. Is Tesla's share value sustainable?
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Depends on how much you understand the company. Go through this thread and you’ll see opinions on both sides and make your own conclusion.

But to answer your question, is it sustainable? My opinion, for whatever it’s worth, is yes.
Gatsby IT
post Dec 7 2021, 02:38 PM

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Hi guys , I have been on and off researching about Tesla since about January/Feb earlier this year , after quite some in depth research and sharing everything to parents (tho from Youtube Tesla Bulls mostly, but they do provide good numbers via real world calculation and extrapolate) , we kinda went all in slowly over past months . House refinancing is in progress , and if this last major capital is being used up then a huge crash came , my strategy is to slowly liquidate some shares and change to some long term 3/5 years option to kinda claw back some gains while minimizing the risk to lets say 10-30% of portfolio . Late to the party but hopefully can ride it out for the next 10 years with a healthy investing mindset .

This post has been edited by Gatsby IT: Dec 7 2021, 02:48 PM
TSkelvinlym
post Dec 7 2021, 03:14 PM

Yes, that was my car.
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QUOTE(Gatsby IT @ Dec 7 2021, 02:38 PM)
Hi guys , I have been on and off researching about Tesla since about January/Feb earlier this year , after quite some in depth research and sharing everything to parents (tho from Youtube Tesla Bulls mostly, but they do provide good numbers via real world calculation and extrapolate) , we kinda went all in slowly over past months . House refinancing is in progress , and if this last major capital is being used up then a huge crash came , my strategy is to slowly liquidate some shares and change to some long term 3/5 years option to kinda claw back some gains while minimizing the risk to lets say 10-30% of portfolio . Late to the party but hopefully can ride it out for the next 10 years with a healthy investing mindset .
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If you have a strategy then just make sure you know what you're doing. No right or wrong as everyone has their own decision to make.

However, I don't understand why would you want to liquidate if a huge crash comes and then buy options? Premiums on Tesla is no joke. Have you worked out the math and the risk/reward? Why not just hold on to your investments since you have a 10 year time horizon? I hope you know what you're doing.
Gatsby IT
post Dec 7 2021, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Dec 7 2021, 03:14 PM)
If you have a strategy then just make sure you know what you're doing. No right or wrong as everyone has their own decision to make.

However, I don't understand why would you want to liquidate if a huge crash comes and then buy options? Premiums on Tesla is no joke. Have you worked out the math and the risk/reward? Why not just hold on to your investments since you have a 10 year time horizon? I hope you know what you're doing.
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I'm actually quite confident and mentally prepared to hold it . It's more like if the stocks drops 50% I'll liquidate 10% of the shares and switch to a longer term 3/5years call option/leaps if that make sense coz by that time those options would be alot cheaper than 50% discount . Most ideal situation of course if I have decent capital I would just top up the shares at lower prices instead of having to switch shares to leaps calls .

However I'm very new to US leaps options , is there 3-5years long term call options like in Malaysia warrant ?
TSkelvinlym
post Dec 7 2021, 04:15 PM

Yes, that was my car.
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QUOTE(Gatsby IT @ Dec 7 2021, 03:52 PM)
I'm actually quite confident and mentally prepared to hold it . It's more like if the stocks drops 50% I'll liquidate 10% of the shares and switch to a longer term 3/5years call option/leaps if that make sense coz by that time those options would be alot cheaper than 50% discount . Most ideal situation of course if I have decent capital I would just top up the shares at lower prices instead of having to switch shares to leaps calls .

However I'm very new to US leaps options , is there 3-5years long term call options like in Malaysia warrant ?
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Be careful of the premiums. If it can crash so hard so fast, implied volatility can be very high which affects option premiums. You have to work out scenarios to enter with prices you're comfortable with.

E.g. Current stock price is $1k. A 19 Jan 2024 call with $1400 strike is priced at $282. This implies you need the stock to go $1682 in 2 years to break even, which is a 68.2% rise. And you need to have the $140k to exercise at that time. So, just do your own calculations beforehand so that if the opportunity presents itself, you can seize it. Make different scenarios at different impl. vol.

Whereas if you have $100k now, you can participate in the 68.2% rise without losing sleep at all. Heck, even if it rises 20% these 2 years, you'll still be happy.

Unless you're willing to risk $28k on the call premium as a "lottery" ticket then go for it.
Gatsby IT
post Dec 7 2021, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Dec 7 2021, 04:15 PM)
Be careful of the premiums. If it can crash so hard so fast, implied volatility can be very high which affects option premiums. You have to work out scenarios to enter with prices you're comfortable with.

E.g. Current stock price is $1k. A 19 Jan 2024 call with $1400 strike is priced at $282. This implies you need the stock to go $1682 in 2 years to break even, which is a 68.2% rise. And you need to have the $140k to exercise at that time. So, just do your own calculations beforehand so that if the opportunity presents itself, you can seize it. Make different scenarios at different impl. vol.

Whereas if you have $100k now, you can participate in the 68.2% rise without losing sleep at all. Heck, even if it rises 20% these 2 years, you'll still be happy.

Unless you're willing to risk $28k on the call premium as a "lottery" ticket then go for it.
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Thx for the detailed explanation , kinda get it just like how Malaysia warrant premium works here . I'm expecting if the market have a sharp/slow drop over next year due to FUD the premium on those calls would drop significantly .

I'll have to reevaluate if those small percentage leap calls is worth it if a steep correction were to come (sharply/gradually) tho I'm not expecting anything crazy to happen with the s curve growth taking effect as well .

I'm against any margin/leverage on the stock portfolio but I'm quite quite bullish on it and being a high risk taker , that's why went for house refinancing route , at least the rate is low and is on a monthly basis . I might just settle with this "house" margin and scrap the option idea since I'm obviously not an expert in that .
Dealus
post Dec 7 2021, 04:30 PM

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I agree with what kelvin said. The IV for Tesla is above average now and a crash may increase the option premium. Making it riskier for you to hold on to those call options.

Alternatively, you may want to consider selling some puts after a crash and when IV is high. Then use those premiums collected to fund your share purchase
Gatsby IT
post Dec 7 2021, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(Dealus @ Dec 7 2021, 04:30 PM)
I agree with what kelvin said. The IV for Tesla is above average now and a crash may increase the option premium. Making it riskier for you to hold on to those call options.

Alternatively, you may want to consider selling some puts after a crash and when IV is high. Then use those premiums collected to fund your share purchase
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Alright , how long usually is the period for the puts selling , is there long term ones like above scenario which the call option dated 2024 ? Sorry for the dumb question I'm slowing digging into the infos .

This post has been edited by Gatsby IT: Dec 7 2021, 04:49 PM
Dealus
post Dec 7 2021, 04:51 PM

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QUOTE(Gatsby IT @ Dec 7 2021, 04:39 PM)
Alright , let's say I'm selling puts but with no cash balance left. Is that a very bad idea ? I looked it up that's what ppl call naked puts ? (I have the habit of not holding cash)

Or can I sell long term puts so I can just wait for 1-2 year and close the position on a profit instead having to exercise the purchase ?
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Depends on your risk tolerance and portfolio. I think selling margin secured puts are the way to go.

I have a decent sized portfolio that allows me to buy shares with margin if I do get assigned. Having cash to secure the put may be an inefficient use of your capital - better to look for higher ROI. I personally don’t use margin unless I have high conviction on the returns (ie after a major crash or to secure a put or call I’m selling that is unlikely to be assigned).

Margin is really good even if you don’t use it. It’s basically your emergency fund.
Dealus
post Dec 7 2021, 05:00 PM

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QUOTE(Gatsby IT @ Dec 7 2021, 04:39 PM)
Alright , how long usually is the period for the puts selling , is there long term ones like above scenario which the call option dated 2024 ? Sorry for the dumb question I'm slowing digging into the infos .
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If you sell long term puts, the premium can be juicy. I think one contract for Tesla that expires in 2024 at a certain strike was around USD20,000 for 100 shares. That’s having RM80k in your pocket straight. Downside is you’re locking your margin or cash to secure this out for a really long time. You’re being paid for taking future risk. Though, you can always close this contract when the option price drops and you make a small profit out of it.

You may want to consider being in the Vega gang, if the goal is to sell options when IV is high and close the position when IV crushes.

I personally prefer selling puts that expire around 1 year. Choose a strike that is way in the money plus a few other conditions.

Another style is for the Theta gang. Basically sell options that expire around 30 - 60 days so that time decay eats up the option premium

This post has been edited by Dealus: Dec 7 2021, 05:40 PM
Gatsby IT
post Dec 7 2021, 08:20 PM

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QUOTE(Dealus @ Dec 7 2021, 05:00 PM)
If you sell long term puts, the premium can be juicy. I think one contract for Tesla that expires in 2024 at a certain strike was around USD20,000 for 100 shares. That’s having RM80k in your pocket straight. Downside is you’re locking your margin or cash to secure this out for a really long time. You’re being paid for taking future risk. Though, you can always close this contract when the option price drops and you make a small profit out of it.

You may want to consider being in the Vega gang, if the goal is to sell options when IV is high and close the position when IV crushes.

I personally prefer selling puts that expire around 1 year. Choose a strike that is way in the money plus a few other conditions.

Another style is for the Theta gang. Basically sell options that expire around 30 - 60 days so that time decay eats up the option premium
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Thx for the insight , i really need dig alot deeper before touching this i guess bangwall.gif dont really wanna trade just thinking what can i do if stock crash and i dont have the capital to buy extra shares (other than just wait and riding it out) . willing to lose 10-20% of portfolio for some extra "long term" return if it crashes hard .

This post has been edited by Gatsby IT: Dec 7 2021, 08:23 PM
lamode
post Dec 9 2021, 02:11 PM

anything could happen!
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QUOTE(Dealus @ Dec 7 2021, 05:00 PM)
If you sell long term puts, the premium can be juicy. I think one contract for Tesla that expires in 2024 at a certain strike was around USD20,000 for 100 shares. That’s having RM80k in your pocket straight. Downside is you’re locking your margin or cash to secure this out for a really long time. You’re being paid for taking future risk. Though, you can always close this contract when the option price drops and you make a small profit out of it.

You may want to consider being in the Vega gang, if the goal is to sell options when IV is high and close the position when IV crushes.

I personally prefer selling puts that expire around 1 year. Choose a strike that is way in the money plus a few other conditions.

Another style is for the Theta gang. Basically sell options that expire around 30 - 60 days so that time decay eats up the option premium
*
spot on.

alternatively you may do a risk reversal to partial solve the IV crash issue.
eg if stock price is $1k, sell $900 put and use the premiums to buy $1.2k call.

but this is an advanced option strategy. not for beginners. DYODD.
lamode
post Dec 10 2021, 09:02 PM

anything could happen!
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kelvinlym what if this is for real?! consider fundamental change? ohmy.gif

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