accidently sold Shell at 24... this before it dropped to 22+... now back up to 25+... lol

still holding XOM... waiting to exit

what you wanna know?

oxy I dun think have assets in Russia... Shell has a lot... XOM not as much...

plan was exit Shell/XOM... enter others like oxy, cvx, cop... or just play crude directly...

oil companies gonna make bumper profits this year...

just to add brk has too much cash...

This post has been edited by dwRK: Mar 24 2022, 09:39 PM

ah OK... I didn't check lately...

that invasion day I went to look at Gazprom but can't put any orders... lol

just to add... us market imho at cross road this week... I'm expecting it to dump from a personal/ta pov... so holding cash is prudent... gives me flexibility I don't previously have

Buffett otoh can keep on dca and buy more when market tanks because he already cash rich... and don't need this flexibility

also big funds can't really exit all even if they wanted to... but he's cut a few slowly in the past

lol...

it bounced off one level as expected... hasn't reached the next level yet

if it gets rejected... there's a good change it will go to X...

if it pushes through... good chance go to Y...

then we see the reaction at X or Y... predict next step...

If it doesn't go there at all... then scenario fail... and we look back at the alternatives...

big time frames for big pivots... small time frames for small pivots...

but trade... one step at a time... one level at a time...

some random shitcoin that I ladder up my selling...

lots of gratification selling at the top man... hahaha

Ramjade is very low risk appetite... your fa fellow lah... only thing extra is he sells covered calls... which is a very safe play

I have my high risks and low risks accounts... totally separated...

mobile can... web dunno

... but in reality you have no idea where's the x & y...

fa + ta will be the best combo...

NQ

ach xfer can takes a few days... use wire when urgent

This post has been edited by dwRK: Mar 29 2022, 05:29 PM

np... 2-3 US working days to arrive is normal for ach... this inter-bank system very slow one...

swift wire is almost instant lah... but the biggest delay factor is the bank's back end processing... I think some is done by batches

and after cut off time... the next day...

This post has been edited by dwRK: Mar 29 2022, 08:51 PM

these are mostly noise...

few years back... I think the 5 and 10 inverted...then ppl jumping on recession talk... before that yellen increase rates... ppl talk of market crash... then last year I think feds doing massive reverse repo... crash n recession talks again... seriously I've been waiting on recession since 2017... lol

quite sure a recession will come... just dunno when... usually needs a trigger for the meltdown... like the subprime last time... I was hoping covid n ukraine be it but no... lol... right now US bonds are sitting on trend line support... if it breaks and drops further, then market is ok... if it starts going back up, then big players are in risk off mode and buying bonds...and we should be very carefully... usually the news and analysts will be especially bullish to reassure market is good and healthy... this is the sign to run...

If you look at Russell 2000... it's not that pretty compared to S&P, Nasdaq, Dow... this means only a few big companies are "supporting" the market now... with cpi all time high... let's see...

i watch 10yr futures...same lah ust10... sometimes the 20yr...

This post has been edited by dwRK: Mar 31 2022, 10:12 AM

futures is in name mostly... they track spot quite closely usually... the "sophistication" is just understanding the contract specification imho...

in that case... i probably eat more salt... and humble pie... than you ar... hahaha...

TOS

missed out one point on "sophistication"... so while you can trade current contract like stocks... you can also do a calendar spread... this means, for example, you sell a current month contract and buy a future month contract as a combo... essentially you are trading the differences in contract price due to time value expectations... so slightly more sophisticated than stocks/etf...

look for zeit's video... is also few pages back...

hey TOS... update for you...