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 Hong Kong Exchange & HK Stocks, Per title post-Extradition Bill W/drawal

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Cubalagi
post May 23 2020, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ May 23 2020, 01:31 PM)
That's right, bros,... two things that cought my eye,...

1) no helicopter money announced.

2) military spending has been reduced to 6%.

I was thinking both of the above would be increased this round.
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Their military spending is not being reduced. It is just that the rate of growth of military spending is lower this year than last year. Total military spending will continue to increase.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189146.shtml

Cubalagi
post May 27 2020, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(simplylegendary @ May 27 2020, 11:16 AM)
Hi guys,

What's your thought about equity linked investment. I wanted to pull out funds from my equity market into government or corporate bonds, and the broker keep pushing this.

Note: Please analyze objectively and don't say all structured products are bad, though most are. ;-)

Equity Linked tied to both shares below
Tencent 0700.HK
Alibaba 9988.HK

Package
Airbag 80%
Coupon 16%
Early call 10%
Period 3 months

Which means that if I buy with principal 100 HKD of Equity Link Investment above, I get a coupon interest of 16% p.a. paid monthly, but if both Tencent and Alibaba drops below 80% of their shares I will get the share + coupon interest instead. The early call is whereby if the shares both goes up more than 10% the whole product will get exercised ahead in advance, and you get back the principal interest based on how much it has been going.

Scenario
1) Make money. Both shares go up more than 10% and early call is struck after trading, I get back principal (100 HKD) + interest period (16% p.a.)
2) Lost money. Both shares go down more than 20% and airbag is struck after trading, I get back share (now at 80 HKD or worse) + interest period (16% p.a.)
3) Make money. Both share go up less than 10% or down less than 20% the whole investment finished in three months, I get back principal (100 HKD) + interest period (16 p.a.)

Summarizing, I have a 36% range max (16% coupon upside + airbag downside protection which means it may go down to 20%), and unlimited downside but shares has to go down beyond 20% for it to take place.

Am I getting it right?
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Looks a like something out of an option strategy, I'm not that familiar with options, but I think it's called a short strangle strategy. Basically, u are betting that the stocks will not move outside that range, meaning it will not be as volatile. So if the stocks move a lot in the upside you lose a lot in the opportunity cost and if it moves a lot in downside, you also can lose.

Coupon rate of 16% pa, with 3 months maturity, means a 4% return.

I have mixed feelings about this product. Yield is quite attractive. But I imagine you are pulling out of equities because you have a bearish outlook. This doesn't protect you in a big bear market. On the other hand, these are also very good stocks.

Btw what sort of bonds are you looking at?


Cubalagi
post Jun 23 2020, 07:08 PM

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The HK thread has been quiet..

Tencent is now the highest valued stock in Asia.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...nd=premium-asia

A great stock up 40% in 1 year, even with covid, trade war and HK protests.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jun 23 2020, 08:11 PM
Cubalagi
post Jun 24 2020, 09:27 AM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 24 2020, 09:16 AM)
For me i just tighten my seat belt and enjoy the uptrend.
As usual, tencent the king of hk stock my favourite all the time.
If one want add more fund in hkse can consider Alibaba, JD both another good choice.
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Meituan Dianping (3690) is another tech champion.
Cubalagi
post Jul 1 2020, 11:10 PM

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QUOTE(simplylegendary @ Jul 1 2020, 09:45 PM)
Does anyone own Vanguard Total China Index ETF (3169.HK).

Considering because of the AUM and low ER. Also because it invest across all type of China shares ( A shares, H, P chips etc).
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No, but you won't go wrong with a Vanguard ETF. If it is the broadest China exposure that you want, then this is good.
Cubalagi
post Jul 2 2020, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(simplylegendary @ Jul 2 2020, 07:47 AM)
Thanks Cubalagi, always helpful

I've taken a look at the 2822 and 2823 you mentioned, they are good but two issues
1) not all market, as they tracks A50 companies, which is listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen. Still very good but 3169 takes it one step further even by tracking all major Chinese companies which is listed anywhere.

2) Expense ratio, I think 2822 and 2823 are higher.
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It depends on your strategy on what type of China exposure you want. If you want the broadest and diversified one, the Vanguard is good.

If you want more targeted approach then there are others. For eg you might be nervous about having China stocks in US n HK for fear of US retaliation, then mainland only makes sense. bcoz it's quite insulated.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 2 2020, 11:59 AM
Cubalagi
post Jul 6 2020, 04:33 PM

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China n HK so bull today!

If China retail investors start come in, then things can go really crazy.
Cubalagi
post Jul 7 2020, 12:09 AM

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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/china-stock...tate-media.html

Bbb
Cubalagi
post Jul 8 2020, 10:05 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jul 8 2020, 11:21 AM)
2822 or 2832 which duplicate A50 performance on shanghai and shenzen.

if you don't always trade I think there is no issue if u use RHB tradesmart.
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QUOTE(XweienX @ Jul 8 2020, 12:08 PM)
thanks for the suggestions, will look into it. Definitely not trading.

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Personally, I don't favor 2822 or 2823 for long term buy and hold. It's only good for short term trading.

Several reasons why I don't think A50 are long term buy n hold: A50 only hold 50 companies listed in mainland China, of which nearly half are financials. Annual management fees are also high.

Long term holding, you can consider the Vanguard Total China ETF (3169) which the poster Simplylegendary was looking at above. This has 800+ companies and low annual expenses. Or can consider ishares 2846, 300 companies listed in mainland.

or can consider my personal favs China investments exposure,:

1) 3173 HK Premia China New Economy

2) 0829EA Affin Hwang New China Tracker. This one is listed in Bursa itself n can save on brokerage and forex.

Both are "new economy" , tech heavy ETFs. The difference being the Affin ETF invests in China companies in US and HK. The Premia etf is invested in Shanghai and Shenzen new economy stocks. 0 bank exposure in both.

FYI 1 year return based on bloomberg:
3173 = 48%
0829EA = 25%

Not bad, considering the past 1 year there was a trade war and covid pandemic!.

I hold both etf for long term China exposure. Short term tho, I have been day trading A50 warrants (warrants over 2823).

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 8 2020, 10:12 PM
Cubalagi
post Jul 9 2020, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(XweienX @ Jul 8 2020, 11:07 PM)
Any other pros and cons of investing directly in HKSE etf vs Bursa's China Tracker etf besides fees and forex?
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I currently hold ETFs in bursa, Hkex, SGX and have been using etfs since 2013. They are good diversification tools.

The cons:
Bursa China Tracker (0829EA) has low volume. If u don't fully understand ETFs, that might unnerve you. But U actually look at the market maker for liquidity. Note tht the marker maker doesn't provide liquidity when HK is closed. So eg between 9-9.30am, when bursa open but HK is still closed, there won't be liquidity. Same with lunchbreak.

The pros: Well, transaction costs (brokerage, forex etc) are big deals, esp if you are buying small amounts. Another pro is that I can easily contact the fund manager if I have questions and they will layan (At least Affin does). Worse case, I know I can call Bukit Kiara to complaint if I feel I've been mistreated.

btw there are two Chinese etfs on bursa, one by Cimb Principal and one by affin. I don't like the Cimb Principal one because it uses the FTSE China 50 index (like the FXI in US) . Another "too much bank" ETF. The stocks I want to invest in the long term are the likes of Tencent. Baba, JD, Meituan etc, and not old economy ones like CCB, ICBC, Sinopec etc.

Anyway, these are my personal views. Please do your own DD.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 9 2020, 10:53 AM
Cubalagi
post Jul 9 2020, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(XweienX @ Jul 9 2020, 11:43 AM)
Thanks for the information. I'm kinda caught between wanting growth (so tech stocks) and stability (bank stocks) so I guess I should look through my current portfolio and see which one I need more.
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In this new world, big tech is considered a defensive sector and banking is the risky sector. There are also many bank stocks on Bursa Malaysia if you want banking exposure, whereas there is no big tech. That's my thinking anyway.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 9 2020, 01:36 PM
Cubalagi
post Jul 9 2020, 01:49 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 9 2020, 01:03 PM)
Bros,... aren't you guys concerned if the pegging of the HKD and the USD is removed or revised ? You might then have Exchange Risk.

The thing abt investing is we wished to invest into an environment with a stable currency and preferably, with a 'normally' stronger currency than our native currency,...
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I don't think it will happen. Right now u can see the market is also not taking this threat seriously. But, if it happens, it will send a shockwave to the whole global financial system.

Having said that, I have been bearish Hong Kong for several years. I don't buy Hong Kong stocks or HSI. I buy Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, which is a different thing, as they earn in RMB.
Cubalagi
post Jul 9 2020, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 9 2020, 03:18 PM)
Tq bros,....

On my part,.. I tend to believe that The US will do 'something' along this line to try to hurt China. Perhaps,... the first action could be,... as reported,... to limit HK Banks' access to USDs.

With China trying to promote usage of their RMB, and trying to steer away from the USD,... hmm,... now would be a good time for them to do this.

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Hong Kong will be hurt, but ultimately US too. I see such an act to be the beginning of the end of the USD as the global reserve currency.

US has the privilege of having the world reserve currency. As Uncle Ben in Spiderman said "with great power comes great responsibility".

QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 9 2020, 03:18 PM)
Bro CL,... as for the Chinese stocks listed in the HKeX, if they are denominated in the RMB, wouldn't you be experiencing Exchange Rate Risk due to the volatility of the RMB ? Secondly,... if you are going fpr the dividend, you would be experiencing 10% withholding tax too, unless of course, you are gunning more for growth,...

If nothing happens to the peg, and your Chinese stock is listed in HKD, then things will be status quo, HKD will still be a good currency to be exposed to.
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The stocks doesn't have to trade in RMB. I usually buy the HKD ones. But the important thing is that the revenues are in RMB. So, if RMB strengthen, the stocks go up in HKD. Vice versa. That's one reason why Chinese stocks are volatile.

N I don't really care about dividend for Chinese stocks. As I mentioned above, I am interested in the tech types, which hardly pay dividends. I stick with Singapore and Malaysia for dividends. I'm not an all out dividend investor like you!

Anyway, a break in the peg will be a risk off moment for all risk assets. U will probably get a big market crash everywhere.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 9 2020, 04:07 PM
Cubalagi
post Jul 15 2020, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 15 2020, 11:52 AM)
Yeah bros,... saw some news these two days abt the peg,....

1) NO removal or chg seen in the near term since there is not much support from politicians.

2) POTUS said no chg to be made. He said this morning, our time,....evening DC Time,...

Congrats to you guys holding-on,...
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As I said, if US try to unpeg the HKD, it will be the beginning of the end of USD unofficial status as world reserve currency. (but actually this may not be a bad thing to the world in the longer run).
Cubalagi
post Jul 16 2020, 04:41 PM

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Shanghai dropped 4.5% today! HSI dropped 2%. This is despite not too bad GDP data coming out of China.

Is this the start of another bear market? 🤔
Cubalagi
post Aug 7 2020, 12:54 PM

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Damn.. Now Trump targeting Tencent..

Hopefully this guy lose the election.
Cubalagi
post Aug 8 2020, 08:26 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Aug 7 2020, 05:28 PM)
Top-up my Chindia fund today. Anyone top-up Tencent and the likes?
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There could be more nastiness as the US Nov elections become closer.

Im saving my cash until that time.
Cubalagi
post Nov 3 2020, 04:29 PM

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Asia Pac indices mostly up strongly today..

Expecting a blue wave??

* except bursa which is in its own world.. 😆
Cubalagi
post Nov 3 2020, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 3 2020, 09:57 PM)

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Wow.. What happened? Baba stock is going to be hammered.
Cubalagi
post Nov 5 2020, 04:03 PM

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QUOTE(MBCH @ Nov 5 2020, 12:16 PM)
BABA is a Giant OCTOPUS, a Fenomenal CASH Machine

Never disappoint  nod.gif
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One thing I learned so far about China tech is: don't panic, just hold.

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