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 Hong Kong Exchange & HK Stocks, Per title post-Extradition Bill W/drawal

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Cubalagi
post Nov 27 2019, 03:28 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 27 2019, 02:21 PM)
Bros,.. this writeup is via courtesy of Bloomberg News, and selected by DBS Treasures, DBS Chief Investment Office.

MAINLAND CHINA & HONG KONG

Equity traders cheering the prospect of a restoration of stability in Hong Kong keep getting disappointed.

Stocks fell on Tuesday (26 November) with the Hang Seng Index down 0.29% to 26,913.92, as the city’s leader Carrie Lam offered no new concessions in her first public comments since Sunday’s vote. It follows Monday’s 1.5% gain in the Hang Seng Index, partly triggered by a landslide election victory for pro-democracy forces. Some analysts were predicting the results would force the government to address issues that have fuelled the unrest.

It is difficult have a view on Hong Kong’s equity market. Despite violent street protests and events such as a university siege, stocks have shown a tendency to revert to the mean for the better part of four months. The Hang Seng Index is more than twice as volatile as when protests began in early June, even though the index is basically flat.

This month has been particularly tricky for anyone trying to time the market. Hong Kong stocks lost USD118b in value on 11 November, their worst day in more than three months, after police shot and wounded a protester. A week later they rose, despite a dramatic standoff between protesters and police at a local university. A short squeeze then followed, stoking the world’s biggest gains. That ended after only two days.

For investors tired of the whiplash, hopes were high that another day of gains for the Hang Seng Index on Tuesday would provide a much-needed breather. But even if the weekend’s peaceful vote removed some near-term uncertainty, stock bulls have plenty of reasons to stay on the side lines. Turnover in Hong Kong was below this year’s average for 14 straight days before Alibaba Group Holding Ltd’s debut, showing a lack of conviction either way. – Bloomberg News.

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index eked out a 0.03% gain to 2,907.06.
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Day by day it's very volatile, but the market has been trending up since mid Aug. I would say avoid HK domiciled stocks and stick to Chinese stocks (HSCEI). HSCEI index is up nearly 8% since Aug compared to HSI which is up 6.77%.


Cubalagi
post Nov 29 2019, 02:09 PM

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Wow.. HK down a lot today
Cubalagi
post Nov 29 2019, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Nov 29 2019, 02:26 PM)
HKCEI also down by 2%.

but they shouldn't be affected right? Since their income & operation are mainly from China?
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The worry is the HK Act will scuttle the US-China trade deal. In that case, China economy will be affected. Malaysia too hence u see KLCI dropping as well.
Cubalagi
post Nov 29 2019, 06:25 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Nov 29 2019, 06:17 PM)
still sleeping
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N I think tonight US will be closed for Thanksgiving.
Cubalagi
post Dec 13 2019, 08:34 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Dec 13 2019, 08:23 PM)
wah .... HKD suddenly strengthened against USD.

how come?
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Trade deal incoming.. RM also strengthening
Cubalagi
post Dec 13 2019, 08:40 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Dec 13 2019, 08:37 PM)
so the trade deal doesn't strengthen USD, only HKD?  hmm.gif
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USD is safe heaven currency.. But with trade deal it is "risk on"

So EM currencies like RMB and MYR will benefit the most. HKD benefit, to a lesser extent, as it is still pegged to USD, but it was trading at lower range of the peg.
Cubalagi
post Jan 15 2020, 09:05 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jan 15 2020, 04:41 PM)
thinking of buying Tencent but at 400HKD per unit and min 100 unit, then min purchase is RM40,000??

so expensive!
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Rm20k..

Cubalagi
post Jan 16 2020, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(GenY @ Jan 16 2020, 05:04 PM)
It's cheaper when u buy when ppl are fearful and blood is on the streets.

I (and I believe foofoosasa too) bought Tencent at around HKD325.

Alibaba and JD also made me very happy.
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U still holding all 3?
Cubalagi
post Jan 31 2020, 01:24 PM

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Good China PMI numbers.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/china-econo...or-january.html

Hk market should be rallying now if not for the virus.
Cubalagi
post Feb 3 2020, 01:30 PM

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Not too bad I think.. Shanghai didn't hit their limit down of 10%, unlike back in 2015/16. So from peak of Jan that's like 12% down only.

HSI n HSCEI are green.. BABA HK and Tencent are even up 2%! Worst over or dead cat bounce?




Cubalagi
post Feb 3 2020, 11:59 PM

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El. Erian says don't buy the dips

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/el-erian-sa...stock-dips.html


Cubalagi
post Feb 8 2020, 01:32 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Feb 8 2020, 01:02 PM)
cubalagi

Sorry; I can't remember what you said, can you please remind me again? What's the difference between HSCEI and HSI ETF fund? I think it's 2828 and 2800? Which is better?

edit for more info: I was actually more interested in HK REITs. Since I'm focusing more on growth stocks in the US & Europe, I thought I should balance my portfolio with dividend stocks in HK & SG. But @Markdestiny said, HK Reit is not worth it...., so time to choose HSI/HSCEI?
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HSI is 50 largest companies listed in HK. This includes HK companies like HSBC, HKEX and Chinese companies like Tencent, China Mobile.

HSCEI is 50 largest Chinese companies listed in HKEX. No HK companies like HSBC there. All just Chinese companies

Since I am bearish HK long term and bullish China long term, I prefer HSCEI over HSI.

Cubalagi
post Feb 8 2020, 03:15 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Feb 8 2020, 01:59 PM)
ah, thanks! I thought I read somewhere before that there were overlapped. I must have confused with something else. They are both very different and makes me feel like an idiot now.  laugh.gif

anyway, HSCEI is mostly reliant on CCP, no? it's mostly government controlled?
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There are overlaps, many Chinese companies can be found in HSI. Probably about 70% overlap.And U could argue that everything in China is govt controlled in a way.

As a side note, the Chinese index that I like now is actually found in a Malaysian etf, the Affin Hwang one. It has both the US and HK listed Chinese companies in the consumer/new economy sector. With this, no need anymore to trade HKEX, unless I want to access to specific stocks or A shares ndex etfs.
Cubalagi
post Feb 9 2020, 07:09 PM

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Interesting to see market this week.

China slowly coming back to work. NCoV death has exceeded SARS, but infection rate seemed to have peaked last week in China. Will infection spike again..
Cubalagi
post Feb 10 2020, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Feb 10 2020, 10:20 AM)
Nope, there is no official news that the lockdown has been lifted  so China is not slowly coming back to work, now postponed until early next month.

Also China's trade/economy data for Jan has been pushed to Feb, no 'visibility' ahead on the impacts  for two months (but can expect not so positive data).

If the pandemic is under control, most probably we could expect the two months data in March earliest...anyway, the closure of one quarter in China being the key supplier would not bode well globally..
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Looks like it..

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/some-factor...s-outbreak.html
Cubalagi
post Mar 9 2020, 03:41 PM

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Low oil price is actually a form of stimulus for China, being a net importer of oil. So can add this to all the other stimulus measures which are in place or going to be introduced.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Mar 9 2020, 03:42 PM
Cubalagi
post Mar 13 2020, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 13 2020, 01:41 PM)
USD in shortage? they can just print money, no? Can QE.
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This is just short term cash crunch.. Panick market selling of all asset classes at the same time and want to be paid in USD. So there is not enough dollar supply. Don't overreact to this.
Cubalagi
post Mar 24 2020, 05:19 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 24 2020, 05:08 PM)
10¢ doesn't really drop.

Do you think if it drops to ±HKD320, it is a good time to enter?
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I guess people under social distancing will use more wechat and play more online games, the having expensive coffees and shopping branded products.
Cubalagi
post Mar 31 2020, 01:47 PM

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A ray of light here

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/china-repor...s-outbreak.html
Cubalagi
post Mar 31 2020, 06:09 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 31 2020, 05:50 PM)
I see that HKCEI tumbled from May 2015 to Feb 2016. What was the reason?
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During that time, there was fear that Chinese debts were out of control and China economy was going to collapse.

P/S I started buying HSCEI in Feb 16 onwards, exited in end 17. Good money.

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