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 Hong Kong Exchange & HK Stocks, Per title post-Extradition Bill W/drawal

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Cubalagi
post Nov 14 2020, 09:03 PM

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QUOTE(yehlai @ Nov 12 2020, 10:26 AM)
Mind elaborate more?
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If u think from last year to now.. we had Trade War, HK unrest, Covid, all scary stuff. But tech stocks are still showing quite strong performance. Look at Tencent most recent quarter.

Of course, the share prices can be volatile, and if u are a good market timer, maybe can go in and out. I tried that, but I find that just sit still and top up a bit when there are dips are probably give better results with much less work and stress.




Cubalagi
post Nov 16 2020, 09:26 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 14 2020, 11:31 PM)
The key things here is market structure. Tencent is monopolistic-like in their pricing, and they have huge market power (like Alibaba, they build products branching out of their "ecosystem" exactly why Grab start off with less-profitable car-hailing then venture into fintech and other high margin stuff), only competitors with the scale as large as Alibaba can challenge it.

If the PRC government insists to break up the monopoly/duopoly/oligopoly, the resulting company will still lose its market power, not unlike what happened to Rockefeller and AT&T. These days, governments give too much leniency to tech firms, added with their low-cost business model, making them rising very fast and gaining huge market share. It's only time when break-ups will happen. (Of course also depends on political lobbying). 

Don't be too naive to think quarterly result looks good. In fact the more profitable the company, this will arouse more suspicion from the top-level government officials. (Remember what happened to game addiction due to the frenzy over Honor of Kings?) You never know what will happen tomorrow, more so in communist China. It's certainly not the CCP's wish to see extreme inequality in the society.

Profits don't simple arise in economics. If producing something is profitable, someone else would enter into the business and cut the margin. This is not happening in oligopolistic and monopolistic market, which is I believe what the CCP is looking at.

I certainly agree with the sit-still and top-up when drop strategy, works well for long-term investors in their early phase of their financial goal.
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Already western countries want to kill Huawei. CCP want to kill the like of Baba and Tencent? I don't think CCP so stupid. And tech is the future of their competition with USA for global leadership.

Having said that there are alwaus many bad possibilities in investing, that's called risk. But so far buying the dips have worked well for tech.

Anyways, I'm pretty diversified when it comes to my exposure to China tech as I invest indirectly via ETFs only. 0829EA on Bursa and 3173 in HK. Combined, that's about 370 Chinesenee economy companies (not all tech though) in HK, US ADRs, Shanghai and Shenzen.





Cubalagi
post Nov 27 2020, 09:24 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 27 2020, 11:47 AM)
Morning bros,... Afraid I'm not into ETFs. I just use ETFs to gauge mkt depths and to predict mkt movements. Emm,... ETF Returns are too low for me, bros,.. same like bond returns too. If I needed perfect safety,.. I'll go for SSBs and FDs.

But today,... FDs are too low too, and new issues of the SSBs have pitiful interest rates. So,... well,... it's REITs and dividend stocks for my income investments.
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ETFs are pretty cool. And I currently hold these ETFs on HKEX:

3173: invests in new economy stocks in Shanghai n Shenzhen exchanges. Companies you never hear about.

2804 : invests in Vietnam blue chips i. e Vin Group what else..

These 2 ETFs have given me 30-40% returns this year.. 😆 Definitely not bond like returns and I'm still holding

Another one is 3011. This invests in USD money market. I expect to get better returns than just keeping USD/HKD in broker account. Of course, in MYR terms, its bleeding as USD/HKD has fallen.But it is more as a portfolio insurance.. Just in case a black swan event happens, and USD shoots up like what happened in March this year.

Cubalagi
post Nov 27 2020, 11:08 PM

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QUOTE(abcn1n @ Nov 27 2020, 10:32 PM)
USD/HKD expect to depreciate further. Have HKD currency and its bleeding for months already. Don't think a black swan will occur anytime soon. Sigh!
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Im expecting USD to decline as well. But Black Swan is called that because it's not expected. So I keep some USD as insurance, just in case the unexpected happens.
Cubalagi
post Nov 29 2020, 08:44 AM

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QUOTE(abcn1n @ Nov 28 2020, 05:13 PM)
Thanks. Someone said that there will be recession mid next year. Wonder what are your thoughts on this. For me, I think for stock market likely not to have or if there is, it will be short lived
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The bear argument is that there will be much more bankruptcies coming next year than this year. This year a lot of businesses are surviving on their reserves and hope, but by next year, reality will set in and more businesses will close shop. The vaccines, even when it come, will not come in fast enough next year to make the economy as it was before covid-19. The world will go back to a deflationary n recessionary environment. The market will finally realize this and sells off. So it will be like 1929-30 Dow, market crashed then come back up strongly then started falling again 1 year later and continued to fall for years.

This is not my base case tho.. I'm positioned more for a strong 21 recovery esp in Asia/ Emerging Market equities and commodities. But it is something to consider.



Cubalagi
post Nov 30 2020, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Nov 30 2020, 06:53 PM)
other than Malaysia, HK/China, what other emerging market equities are you invested in?
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Vietnam via 2804.HK.

And Singapore (but this is not EM, but close)
Cubalagi
post Dec 24 2020, 12:55 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Dec 24 2020, 11:21 AM)
Baba got hit again.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...oly-allegations

7-8% drop, 5-month-low now.
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Damn..

Cubalagi
post Dec 24 2020, 06:30 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Dec 24 2020, 04:56 PM)
anyone getting BABA now? Should hit $235 in NYSE.
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So brave eh?

Baba is a great business, but I'm also scared of CCP.
Cubalagi
post Dec 24 2020, 09:35 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Dec 24 2020, 06:40 PM)
So, do you think CCP wanna kill Baba now? tongue.gif
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I say now it has become a possibility to be monitored.

As I mentioned above, I don't hold BABA directly, only indirectly via one of my ETF exposure. So my concern is more on industry wide impact on China new economy sector.
Cubalagi
post Jan 6 2021, 01:23 PM

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China tech rebounding today..
Cubalagi
post Jan 7 2021, 11:50 AM

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QUOTE(a16791 @ Jan 7 2021, 11:44 AM)
Learning from the best mar ie the skill of u turning .
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US is getting worse than us. Malaysians with backdoor government also don't storm parliament.

But overall I'm pretty bullish on my positioning on Asian equities now.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jan 7 2021, 11:50 AM
Cubalagi
post Jan 8 2021, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(Moneylust @ Jan 8 2021, 01:49 AM)
ChAOoz Cubalagi foofoosasa

Considering the potential US ban on Tencent and Alibaba, are you guys planning to buy more, sell or hold but not add more?

What's your plan if the ban is really happens?

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...n-us-ban-fears/
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Hold.. Wait for Biden
Cubalagi
post Jan 8 2021, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jan 8 2021, 04:44 PM)
cubalagi any views on PDD?
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No special insight sorry.

As mentioned earlier, I hold China tech exposure via ETF. Baba, PDD, Tencent, Meituan.. As long as the whole industry doesn't implode I'm fine.

As an aside, my Hkex investment that's giving me happy feelings nowadays is 2804. Hk. That's my Vietnam exposure. Look at the nice price chart over the last 6 months.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jan 8 2021, 05:21 PM
Cubalagi
post Jan 14 2021, 09:05 PM

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Strong showing by China tech today.. Tencent, Baba, Meituan all up by 5% or more..
Cubalagi
post Jan 15 2021, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jan 15 2021, 10:33 AM)
more to come dude...

my tech, bank and insurance going up a lot recently but sadly i dont have EV in my portfolio. sold too early especially 1211 BYD
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Yup.. This is what I said in early Nov

QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Nov 5 2020, 04:03 PM)
One thing I learned so far about China tech is: don't panic, just hold.
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Still holds true so far..

Having said that, one of my market timing strategy is always to trim position/take profit as CNY approaches..
Cubalagi
post Jan 20 2021, 11:08 AM

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HK tech is now full bull market mode...
Cubalagi
post Jan 20 2021, 07:50 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jan 20 2021, 05:09 PM)
Jack ma appear plus china flow inflow to hong kong.
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Baba up 8.5% but Meituan Dianping up 9% today.
Cubalagi
post Jan 24 2021, 10:20 PM

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QUOTE(halotaikor. @ Jan 24 2021, 08:59 PM)
hi sifus here,

im newbie trying to get my feet wet into chinese stocks.

i planned to buy alibaba stock.

1) what are the difference/ pros and cons between buying from NYSE( BABA) and buying from HKSE (9988) ?

2) what is the minimum unit? as i understand HKSE also is using "lots" like in bursa. 1 lot is how many units?

3) anything else i should aware?

thank you
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If US and China fight again, there is a risk that NYSE Baba can be delisted. Then u might have to liquidate at low price.

I don't think it's likely, but still a possibility.

Cubalagi
post Jan 25 2021, 12:48 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jan 25 2021, 11:11 AM)
Another bull today? hoho

look at the techs. crazy china buyer
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Nice

My Bursa 0829EA is up 30% (incl dividends) from early Oct last year.
Cubalagi
post Jan 25 2021, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Jan 25 2021, 12:53 PM)
Good to hear. Is the liquidity for the ETF ok? I read somewhere years back that ETFs in HK and Malaysia markets are not liquid. Not sure how are things now.
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For 0829EA, as at 2.35pm

Best Ask 100k shares at RM9.45

Best Bid: 100k shares at RM9.44

So I can safely sell or buy close to RM1m in one transaction.

Not bad.. But once HK close at 4pm, liquidity will drop.

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