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 REIT, real estate investment...

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cherroy
post Jun 9 2009, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Jun 9 2009, 11:46 AM)
The success of AXREIT securing the long term loan really has a great effect on its price. Today AXREIT flying smile.gif
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Because previously when global financial crisis or meltdown down or credit freezing time, risk of unable to refinance is pretty high which happened on a lot of overseas high gearing reit.

If they cannot refinance the loan, or issued commercial paper/bonds etc to repay existing matured loan/bonds, the only way is to sell down the property at a distressed price.
cherroy
post Jun 9 2009, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Jun 9 2009, 03:16 PM)
Can they use their rental to service their loan? and reduce in term of dividend?
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The issue of refinancing is not about servicing the loan, but repayment on the borrowing when due/matured.

It is lump sum as Jordy mentioned.

A lot of company does issue bonds, or undergo some term (like 3 years or 5 years) credit facility which when due they need to repay all in lump sum, generally, company will do refinancing to roll over the debts.

cherroy
post Jun 9 2009, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Jun 9 2009, 08:43 PM)
Ops sorry my mistake  blush.gif

But i wonder y reits will find hard to refinance their loan eventhough some of their debts level are high. as long as their business can sustained and able to service their loan or pay their bond to their bond holders....As long as the company fundamental still maintain strong should be not hard to find loan .
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Locally, not much an issue for refinancing as long as company fundamental satisfy the banks as liquidity is ample locally.

But during period from Sep 2008 (after Lehman) to March 2009, we are in unprecedental time of economy history which credit is freezing globally in general, although we don't feel much locally aka banks are scare to lend.
cherroy
post Jun 11 2009, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Jun 11 2009, 01:05 PM)
Finally, I don't understand why they are all trading at a discount to their NAV. Is it because investors don't believe in the valuations of their properties?
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Market fear they are not able to secure new tenant once current lease expired. So reit price is discounting those potential risk ahead.

Also there are some new supply of office space on newly built building so it might depressed the rental market.

The issue is about rental and tenant, not the NAV itself.

Although with softer properties market, it is norm for market discount the NAV.

cherroy
post Jul 7 2009, 11:40 AM

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If capitalland reit is listed, we will have another option.

But its listing is not yet confirmed.
cherroy
post Jul 13 2009, 11:23 PM

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QUOTE(ts1 @ Jul 13 2009, 09:43 AM)
tempted to sell if go beyond 1.60  tongue.gif
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As long as they can continously pay 3.x cents per Q, it is hard to find a reason to sell.

Main reason, sell the stock and park the cash at 2.5% FD compared to 9-10% yield they can generate?

So I will watch the DPU and future DPU closely as the barometer of buy/sell decision.

Just my view.


Added on July 13, 2009, 11:24 pmAnyone study about ARReit before?

Thinking grab some mini amount to have instant coming DPU. biggrin.gif
Same with Stareit.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jul 13 2009, 11:24 PM
cherroy
post Jul 14 2009, 03:39 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Jul 14 2009, 11:20 AM)
What's up with the heavy selling pressure on QCT? Especially since they're scheduled to announce results on 23/07. Is the market expecting them to announce bad results?
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I don't see any heavy selling lately already, that's why it surges from 0.84 to now 0.95.
cherroy
post Jul 15 2009, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 15 2009, 10:36 PM)
i don't want to keep paying money for margin call......
if want to invest, just put an adequate lum sum and leave it aside. I just want the dividend only
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I think you trade too much on futures already. biggrin.gif

In equities, once you paid, no more extra money needed to fork out, unlike futures can be unlimited hole one.

After bought, what you concern is about the company ability to generate dividend to you or generate wealth to the shareholders, whether share price drop or rise doesn't dictate how much they will be paying.
cherroy
post Jul 17 2009, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Jul 17 2009, 09:17 AM)
Didn't see anyone post this for UOA. What, nobody buys this one?

UOA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST 
Date Announced : 15/07/2009 
EX-date: 30/07/2009
Entitlement date: 03/08/2009
Entitlement subject: Income Distribution
Entitlement description: INTERIM INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF 5.82 SEN COMPRISING 4.88 SEN TAXABLE INCOME AND 0.94 SEN TAX EXEMPT INCOME FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 JUNE 2009.
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I had couple of this one, but bought long time ago.
cherroy
post Jul 17 2009, 11:21 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 17 2009, 09:25 PM)
by the way, the value RM xxx,xxx/month means what? the rental Arreit is collecting?

p/s: SEGi College, Kota Damansara building very nice. so near to my house too, hehe.
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Should be rental per month lor.

Sopol,
Thanks for the information, I have been looking for this information lately which I can't find it on their online website as I haven't managed to get their annual report.
cherroy
post Jul 21 2009, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 21 2009, 04:03 PM)
mamak EGM? tongue.gif
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Please reserve roti planta and teh tarik satu for me during the EGM. laugh.gif
cherroy
post Jul 22 2009, 11:33 PM

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QUOTE(whizzer @ Jul 22 2009, 10:58 PM)
I was wondering since Amanah Raya is the trustee of all those Amanah Sahams, does ARREIT stand to benefit from all those fire-sale of ASM & ASW ? Seems like AXREIT is benefitting.
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It is non-related issue.

Trustee is trustee, it doesn't relate.

Whether Arreit will be benefitting from the ASM, it depended on PNB fund managers whether consider Arreit as its target investment.
cherroy
post Jul 22 2009, 11:43 PM

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QUOTE(vergil90 @ Jul 22 2009, 02:06 PM)
Agree with you for this, but i have a few points here:
1. if i am the investor of the 20% sure i will invest lower than market price.
2. The 65mil deal is RPT.
3. The 65mil deal with return just a mere 5.6% will drag down the DPU (after consideration of the 20% private investment, which used to fund to purchase the 65mil)
    The EPU will be lower to 14.4 from currently 16sen, which is a negative factor with me.

If i am Axis Reit management, why don't i take advantage with current low interest environment to get a let say get a  4% loan to fund the purchase, although will raise the gearing may be up to maximum 50%, but the additional DPU sure will drive up the price more than the currently RM 1.76 NAV and issue the private placement at least at this price in the nearest term  and not dilute the earning like this way.

Just my 2 cents.
Anyway, just dispose a quarter and hold another 3 quarter hopefully like what u say the private placement will higher.
I am very satisfied with their previous track record, but now  hmm.gif
(if amanah saham or related party  is the investor of the 20%, u think u can get higher and bargain with GLC/related party for higher price? This depends how good the management are,  icon_idea.gif )
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Yup, your concern is perfectly reasonable especially on RPT side.

Even the CEO has said, some DPU will be diluted due to private placement.

For taking loan or private placemenet, they need to go for private placement because there are 9 to 10 properties in the pipeline which they intend to inject into Axreit. Without private placement to raise capital for the acquisition, they won't able to do it.

At higher borrowing or gearing, if something happen on financial market, refinancing could be very problematic which has brought down a lot of overseas high gearing reit in recent financial crisis. So we can't say which one is definite good (taking more loan or private placement or new unit issuance)

They need to expand and diversify their portfolio which is a positive factor. For reit, size matter in term of attracting instituitional investors as well as liquidity issue which are the 2 important factor to lure instituitional investors besides quality of properties and yield.

At 1.7x, based on NAV, it is fully valued. Now the price is supported based on yield factor.
cherroy
post Jul 23 2009, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Jul 23 2009, 04:03 PM)
With regards to RPT, we ought to see more RPTs coming from AXREIT. Why? Remember that Axis was a property development and investment company set up by Alex, Stephen and Abas? Their core activity now is to develop and "groom" these babies to be yield-accretive. So it is completely normal to see RPT within AXREIT smile.gif

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Frankly speeaking, a lot of reit are almost RPT one before properties being injected.

The most important thing is the RPT is not detrimental to the reit holder.
The one that that we should be worrying when RPT or major shareholder treat reit as unwanted properties dump side, aka sell those poor prospect properties to reit.

As long as RPT is bringing benefit and properties quality itself is healthy, it is a fair deal.


Added on July 23, 2009, 5:40 pm
QUOTE(sopol @ Jul 23 2009, 05:13 PM)
panajie..yes i am holding non-reits as well. last time i trade quite frequents but end up losing money especially the goreng-goreng one. now do some balancing in my portfolio (reits, dividend counters and gorengs also got..he.he.)...and it worked very well. no longer cemas when leave the screen...

i only got 3 reits. regret didn't buy the most cun counter "axreit" when it bottomed 1.00 last time..one click away 'confim button' only..

still evaluating to buy another one reit which i consider able to give me at least 9% yield/year. and to increase my holding in the 2 existing reits that i currently have..
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As posted long time before, among all want to consider, Axreit is always the most preferred. At least until now with its fundamental.

Some investment banks put a targe price of 2.20~2.40, which personal think a bit high, which the TP is based on yield credential.

QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 23 2009, 05:30 PM)
ohyah, another dividend cheque for Qcapital - Gross interim income distribution of 3.78 sen per unit.

reits rocks!
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Yeh, another cheque coming. icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jul 23 2009, 05:41 PM
cherroy
post Jul 23 2009, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(vergil90 @ Jul 23 2009, 05:53 PM)
The computation is simple, 1st half they distribute 8sen for dividend (which i understand is near 100% of their income, excluding RM 2million profit which is paper gain from valuation, though NAV will up a bit). So Assume whole year = 8 *2 = 16cents for current 19 properties.
The additional property add 1.28 cents next year so total 17.28 cents.
Private placement is 20% that's mean next year 120% share the dividend. 17.28censt / 120% = 14.4 cents DPU for next year.
Remember, the private placement is to purchase the 65mil and the extra 10mil is develop it further. So, the total debts still remain the same relative to NAV, but will be lower against total asset, which for me just a small +positive factor.
He he, if they can private placement at RM 1.70 and use extra to pare down debts then good for long term like what Cherroy say(short term not good coz now low interest environment)  thumbup.gif
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The private placement actually has been planned last year but due to unfavourable financial market situation, it is delayed until this year. Total 100 million has been approved by SC last year which is planned to be in 2 portion.

It has been utilising borrowing to acquire lot of properties previously which drive up the DPU from previous around 12 cents to now 16 cents. So it is good to see they pare down the borrowing.

Private placement is better than right issue, as if private placement is successful placed out at good price, then it means existing unit holder doesn't need to fork out extra capital while getting more diversified in the reit properties portfolio with some potentail higher DPU (may be now diluted) in the longer term future if rental and properties become better time.

Getting borrowing is risky than private placement, because potential future higher BLR, as well as potential refinancing cost and difficulty.

Some reit in overseas go under because of refinancing issue, so too much borrowing is also a risk.
cherroy
post Jul 24 2009, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(kmarc @ Jul 24 2009, 01:01 PM)
I blamed Cherroy for not forcing me to buy REITS. innocent.gif  I remember last time when I was asking him about REITS (AXREIT was at RM1.00), he said not bad, can buy, but judge your own. He should have said "I have EVERY confidence in REITS. Gives you GUARANTEE returns and possible CAPITAL appreciation. Don't look at it as TURTLE stocks as there may be NINJA TURTLES in those REITS too. BUY BUY BUY. BTW, I have a fortune in REITS!". Would have dump all my money into REITS.....  whistling.gif

Haha, jokes aside, now that I know what is REITS, I will definitely buy some more next time......
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LOL, biggrin.gif

FYI, I bought Axreit from 1.70, 1.60, 1.50 until it hit the 1.00. So have bunch of different price.

Most of my portfolio stocks are turtle one. biggrin.gif


Added on July 24, 2009, 3:00 pm
QUOTE(kmarc @ Jul 24 2009, 02:16 PM)
I guess so. I'm holding Qcapita and Hektar at the moment. Follow recommendation from you guys......  notworthy.gif

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Qcapital is also not bad mah. Now 1.00 already, sigh, can't buy more.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jul 24 2009, 03:00 PM
cherroy
post Jul 24 2009, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(kmarc @ Jul 24 2009, 08:29 PM)
However, what Jordy said is also quite logical, that since we buy REITS for long term for its dividend, any paper gain is just that - paper gain. Come next recession, we'll get capital depreciation leading to no gain at all...... but then, that's a good time to buy!  nod.gif
Any more info on that? I looked at its charts and its price seemed quite stable since 2008....
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You can sell when the reit price is way overvalued or yield is not attractive anymore which is recommended to do so. It is not like fall in love forever which is a bad idea in investing.

Reit price cannot go too far away based on 2 factors only, NAV and yield. Any yield that's not attractive (not significant more than FD rate) is not sustainable for reit price to hold on.

QUOTE(Jordy @ Jul 24 2009, 10:27 PM)
What is ALAQAR? tongue.gif

Fundamentally, healthcare business will only flourish when there is a HUGE pandemic (not H1N1) or 20-30 years down the road. Therefore, I do not see ALAQAR going anywhere up from here any soon. Meaning to say, less patients = less income = less rental reversions.

So there you have it, its income for now should not grow any faster (if it grows).

Well, this is just my view.
Next recession? Well, lets hope for stimulus crisis or US currency crisis to materialise soon tongue.gif

By the way, paper gain might not just be paper gain IF you know how to play it around to increase your yield. I might be doing that after the ex-date. My current yield would be around 10.9% (if the DPU is 0.16). I can raise it to 12.8% with the same DPU smile.gif
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Different, even there is pandemic, it doesn't affect how well Alaqar will be doing, it may drive more business to hospital but for reit holder, you are renting the properties to hospital only, you don't participate in hospital's business.

cherroy
post Jul 25 2009, 12:20 AM

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QUOTE(Jordy @ Jul 25 2009, 12:09 AM)
You're stating a right point, we are only renting the property to tenants. But I would like to think of it this way.

If the tenant makes money, the tenant has the capacity to pay higher rental (in this case, KPJ itself). So my view is that if the private healthcare sector is not growing, there will be stagnant rental or even worse, decreased rental.

It's like what my formula says. Less patients = less income (in this case to KPJ) = less rental reversions (to ALAQAR).
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Ok, fair enough, just to clear the air so that people won't be mis-understanding. smile.gif

Cheers.
cherroy
post Jul 25 2009, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jul 25 2009, 12:17 PM)
OT a bit.

I understand some time back you expressed your interest  to invest in CHHB oil palm related investments.

Aren"t CHHB have  some similarity with Boustead one ?

Mind to share more.
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Compared to CHHB plantation scheme, I prefer reit which is more liquid and can get back cash in T+3 time and little more transparency.

There is no easy quick out from the CHHB scheme unless you find one buyer willing to take your stake.
cherroy
post Jul 25 2009, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(Muliku @ Jul 25 2009, 12:30 PM)
Anyone into Sgp REIT ?
Some of them are paying even better yield than AXREIT e.g.
-MI-REIT at 19.7% : qtrly
-Starhill at 15.3% : qtrly
-LMIR at 13.6% : qtrly
-Cambridge at 13.0% : qtrly

http://reitdata.blogspot.com/
These yield look rather attractive (are they real??)
Appreciate any comments. Thanks
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SKY is right, you need to see and analyse through their financial book before can conclude those reit yield is the actual yield based on return/profit alone, not from other sources (like depreciation).

Also, those data might from previous year EPS which now company might face tenant renewal difficult as well as rental pricing issue. Just like what happened on Atrium previously, its yield up to 12-13% due to lose a tenant.

High geared reit will enable high yield, but risk wise is also more in term of refinancing difficult risk as well as higher BLR in longer term future. There is no room for interest rate to go down because they are at zero or near zero, the only way for interest rate is either flat or up only. biggrin.gif

That's why I prefer to see Axreit pare down the borrowing through private placement instead of through more borrowing.

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