A short recession is 99% certain. A 1929 depression is indeed a worse case scenario but remember that the governments and CBs  all over the world will be throwing trillions of dollars to make sure that doesn't happen.

travel will resume but with severe restrictions and limitations

doubt we will return to the daya of "now everyone can fly"

Only a hand full of countries in the world are self sustaining in resources and could literally lock down forever; the rest will need to open by economic pressure.

current interruption is universal and prolong, is more severe than 2008, 2000, 1997, etc and comparable to or worse than 1929.

I have a tendency to quantify events, as numbers give me a better picture. 

Dont take this as the bible, duration of this dip may be ...

with 68% probability (1 SD), duration as long as 17 months
with 95% probability (2 SD), duration  as long as 34 months
with 99.7% probability (3 SD), duration  as long as 51 months

       

Looking at what happened to PBank, it is scary. Like a news report said I saw recently,

as solid as a rock

now fall like a rock.

No offence to those with PB shares.

I wanted to get that years back but felt it was overpriced.

Learning for me, just ignore the saying that the good & strong ones will survive. Yes, they will but they may also take a hit, sometimes a big one. The other big unknown is when will he step down and what will happen to PB then.

PBB many SME customers.. The worst group that will get financially hit by this virus.

The great depression started in 1929, an economic slump that lasted about 10 years. It brought about a lot of suffering and was ultimately one of the contributors to World War 2. Dow fell 80% from its peak, and it took 25 years to reach back its high.

There are some similarities with now, but I see two main differences in economic terms. The first was monetary policy. At that time the USD was based on Gold, and no room to ease. Monetary policy was too tight going into a recession, which made things much worse and turned into a depression. Now we have super loose monetary policy that is pumping huge liquidity. Secondly is banks, there were bank runs and bank collapses early in the Great Depression. Now banks are better managed and regulated esp since 2008.

I view this Covid 19 as a global level natural disaster, which is still ongoing. But it will end, sooner or later. The later it ends, the worse the damage will be.

From an investment perspective, I try to position my portfolio in case it ends sooner, and also in case it ends later, and also what comes after.

Read that one S REIT dropped by 30% but now has gained 40%! Is that realistic? Rational? Or herd mentality?

Not saying this one will be a mirror image, my gut feeling is, most likely, another dip is on the horizon. Based on my UPSR certificate (common sense 101). Ha.

To me, covid is not the underlying problem. It is just the last straw that broke the camelback, or the needle that pricked the bubble.

Problems building up over the decades include too many debts (countries, corporations, etc. Govt bailouts, countries pumped in more money to solve previous dips), etc. If my memory is ok, think I saw a figure of US$256 TRILLION for USA alone.

i.e. 256,000,000,000,000!!!

Geo politically, the top guy does not like the new kid in town, a growing power, fearing a takeover in trade, tech etc. Also, reserve currency.

Speaking my mind using my UPSR certificate in common sense. Ha.

Ah that debt bubble.. 😆

But CBs have shown that they won't let it fail, yet. I think they will succeed, at least for the next couple of years.

Interesting. Debt 101 lesson for me.

Understand debt is part of supply-demand market driver. But having too much of it can be detrimental in the long run. Other trading countries will have serious thought in dealing with this country. Eg a few decades ago, countries were demanding gold for their US$ currency, resulting in depletion of the US gold reserve. President Nixon (1970s) later stopped the US$ gold standard to stop the gold depletion. US$ became the reserve currency after WW2 as it had a huge gold holding (80,000 tonnes?). Saw a documentary in National Geographic about the amount of gold in Fox Knob. Maybe for security reasons, FK was very secretive in revealing how much they still keep there. Maybe now a small fraction of what they used to have.

Unless having a huge debt is the norm, other countries will be more careful in dealing with countries with huge debt. Russia, China, etc buy US treasuries at agreed rates. My bet is, a higher rate if the country is heavily indebted. Overall, a lower trust in that govt.

How do US$ remain as the reserve currency after it stopped the gold standard? Think they pulled Saudi to the table to use petro$ for all their oil business. You help me, I help you with military, etc. Read that Russia and China have some oil transactions in non US$, a sign of things to come?

The secret is if the sentiment can hold-up till the actual recovery comes,...

After years of human history in investments,... the mkt has become highly forward-looking today !

One thing for sure, looks like deflation is rearing its head.
Negative treasury yields. Now negative oil futures.
Everything is pissing air out of its highly inflated insides

Deflation is when supply outstrips demand.  There is a lot of oil stocks presently.
The futures was negative fir that reason. And don't be surprise to see another negative come up again. Storage is running out very fast

How much helicopter money can the Feds drop from the sky ? This becomes the question then,... and if this dropping of helicopter money can be maintained TILL ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES START PICKING-UP AGAIN, then prices can be maintained.

I think helicopter money is not the only reason why asset prices keep increasing, though, by no doubt, this could be one of the main reasons.

I do not think we have reached the bottom just yet. I do realize that stock market always tend to be forward looking. However, I don't think it's forward looking enough. Look at US unemployment numbers & their all time high debt level. This is on top of 1 million covid-19 cases as of yesterday....

Whatever that is happening now is purely coming from fed intervention & their helicopter money. Hence it's a bulltrap. Once the companies starts reporting their Q2 results, shit will hit the fan. Massive selloff will happen & even the Fed intervention won't be enough.

This is my 2cent worth of view.

No lar, health care counters such as glove counters are having an awesome time now (Pandemic + Optimism about share (greedy when people are fearful catchphrase bla bla..).

I plan to use them as a buy indicator because when health care stock move below their 200ma in general, this would mean two things

1) Likely the pandemic is at its tail end and investor foresee demand for health care product is going down

2) Market optimism has waned off, health care and consumer staples are the most defensive right now. If even they are lower than their 200ma this mean market is really over pessimistic and a bottom might be near, or market has became rational and nearer to reality

There are many crazy indicators analyst use, like sales of undergarments to predict economic downturn etc, so i guess mine is not so far-fetched ahaha

Good news for the book worm! Try reading this during the MCO, highly recommended by Kiril Sokoloff, a very good investment strategist. The book "claimed" that high debt was the culprit behind the great depression. So ,,,,
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Cheerio.

My layman's view, when the gold price comes down, maybe it means economy is getting better. Then still worthwhile to try it?

Economy going bad, gold demand and price naik! Right? Irrational and inconsistent mind. Ha.

I beg to differ when you stated the last staetement as bolded above.

In my deep research in the last few weeks, gold price rose when stocks dropped which is representative of the economy weakening (previously). Look at following trendline (75% accuracy level). QE was FIRST envisaged and deployed in 2008 when the US was hit with the subprime crisis.

It was NEVER deployed before 2008. But the trendline below has always apperaed.

https://sdbullion.com/dow-gold-ratio