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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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Yggdrasil
post Mar 19 2020, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(MasterConfucion @ Mar 19 2020, 02:36 PM)
china and korea recovered from covid but the stock market still continue drop. how to explain?
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People look at US market. US collapse, everything collapse.
Also, fear. Now people selling, good time to collect.
People were greedy previously and bought on margin. Now get margin called and caused a downward spiral.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 21 2020, 10:31 AM

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Everything so cheap now. Monday will be cheaper?
Sell underwear and buy! Cheaper to buy property companies than the property itself hehe
Yggdrasil
post Mar 21 2020, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 21 2020, 11:04 AM)
After selling underwear, one is literally naked. in time of turbulence, naked body is exposed to element and could resulted in injury or even fatal.
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brows.gif But seriously everything is cheap. Sell car to buy also better.
However, my sifu say things will become cheaper. Don't enter too early. Wait for the body count.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 21 2020, 02:09 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Mar 21 2020, 01:58 PM)
Don’t get too carried away... to make big money requires huge capital... concentrate on more important things in life...even if index fell to 500 and you invest 100k... it is hardly life changing event....
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If you scoop it at the bottom, it is a big difference. The difference between getting a 100% return and a 200% return.
But obviously we cannot catch the bottom.

The person I know who made huge returns in the 1997 recession said his biggest regret was entering too early.
https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...post&p=95907774
Yggdrasil
post Mar 21 2020, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Mar 21 2020, 02:30 PM)
In the example, do you think your friend make enough to make a difference in his life? How much total he make using how much capital?
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He only had that much in 1997. He didn't buy in 2008 because he used the profits he made in 1997 recession to buy a property cash (no loan).
I would say this is a huge difference.
Just few years ago, he received quite a sum of money from his parents' estate. He's sitting on 70% cash now.
I wanted to enter Monday but he advised me not to. According to him, better to miss out on gains than to enter and get cut.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 22 2020, 12:45 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 22 2020, 12:27 PM)
Interesting that earlier in this thread, everyone were talking about the futility of market timing. Now many market timing posts..
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Things change. Who would expect the coronavirus will cause governments to lockdown?
I don't think Ebola, H1N1, SARS caused almost all countries to lockdown and close almost all flights, hotels, etc.
I initially didn't expect the market to tank so fast too.

user posted image
Yggdrasil
post Mar 22 2020, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 22 2020, 01:56 PM)
Every economic recession is different and always hit earlier than expected. Covid 19 was Infront of us for over 2 months and few have the training or knowledge to foresee it's destruction until it's too late.

U.S monitor worldwide outbreak constantly. Those has access to intelligence report are privileged.
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Full impact not yet hit.
I'm guessing the sequence will be:

Airlines, hotels, O&G defaults -> Banks affected
Corporate defaults -> Banks affected
Unemployment -> People sell stocks to pay for necessities
Stock prices down -> Investment firms on leverage go bust
People dying -> Property prices fall

Might be a deflation.
Those with cash win

This post has been edited by Yggdrasil: Mar 22 2020, 04:07 PM
Yggdrasil
post Mar 22 2020, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 22 2020, 05:07 PM)
bear: FIND THE BOTTOM!!  laugh.gif
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Be careful, you may run out of bullets too soon.
I expect deflation to happen. When deflation happens, money becomes more valuable.

QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 22 2020, 05:07 PM)
so despite warren buffett getting grilled for years at AGMs for sitting at 60% cash, he is now the smartest?  brows.gif
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No one predicted the virus is so bad. Nobody even Warren Buffett could have predicted it.
It was luck he was sitting on cash. If I sit on cash forever, eventually one day the market will crash and I will become the wisest man in the room biggrin.gif
Yggdrasil
post Mar 22 2020, 06:27 PM

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QUOTE(sjteh @ Mar 22 2020, 06:21 PM)
Be careful, you may run out of bullets too soon.
I expect deflation to happen. When deflation happens, money becomes more valuable.

With US interest near zero, QE kicked off and money flood the market with helicopter spinning, how can it be deflation?
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When there is credit crunch (lack of liquidity), prices will fall.
Impossible the government can keep things afloat for long.
Just imagine if you cannot buy a house because the bank has no money to lend you.

This post has been edited by Yggdrasil: Mar 22 2020, 06:28 PM
Yggdrasil
post Mar 22 2020, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 22 2020, 07:52 PM)
this is interesting... deflation.

i dun know if we have ever seen real deflation in malaysia since 1957... i can't recall it.
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Already happening.
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/4928691
FYI, sales agents can't even meet clients to sell properties.
Might last a short while, might stick for few months.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 22 2020, 07:58 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Mar 22 2020, 07:55 PM)
Warren Buffett cash is only 25% I think. He is heavily invested all the time. 25% cash is not really sitting on cash although his absolute amount is gigantic ...
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60% cash according to Google.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 22 2020, 08:10 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Mar 22 2020, 08:02 PM)
25% of Berkshire in cash
It is not his style to time the market with 60% cash...
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This is 2019 data. He will probably have higher cash now.
user posted image

He doesn't store all his cash in Berkshire.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 23 2020, 11:22 AM

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Time to raid companies. biggrin.gif
user posted image
Yggdrasil
post Mar 23 2020, 12:30 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Mar 23 2020, 12:28 PM)
Show us the same screen but orders filled later? biggrin.gif
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It's already filled.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 23 2020, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Mar 23 2020, 02:13 PM)
What if by next month we see decreases in infections in all countries or at least the majority of the earlier infected countries? Possible? How will market react?
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REITs, insurance, banks, etc will fall.
Cash rich, low debt companies survive.
Deflation is possible and cash is king.
Yggdrasil
post Mar 23 2020, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 23 2020, 02:34 PM)
Im less worried about deflation. I'm more worried about stagflation. Cash also no use.
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I think deflation not stagflation. Stagflation means high inflation, high unemployment. Deflation makes more sense to me especially property sector.
Yggdrasil
post Apr 4 2020, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Apr 4 2020, 10:00 PM)
I tend to stay away from DCA as I feel it is not always what it claims to be.

My preference is to buy on recovery. Not aiming for the exact bottom, maybe 10, 20% away from the bottom after I have positive signals on market recovery. Yes, markets can still go haywire after that. Tough luck if that is the case.

If I buy on the downward phase,
a. I will be worried, how much lower will it drop? SWAN if I buy on the uptrend phase.
b. Better use of my money at overall lower price than with DCA price (spreaded over a bigger price range).

Feel free to jump in if you see flaws in my thinking so that I can assess and modify, etc  (besides saying market timing does not work in most cases). Ha.

Cheerio.
[attachmentid=10463773]
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I bought some Malaysian stocks at the dip and already made some money.
Sold and waiting for second round rclxm9.gif
Yggdrasil
post Apr 5 2020, 12:39 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 5 2020, 12:36 AM)
Are these the secret low liquidity stocks?. 😆
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Got few good stocks whereby the spread between bid/ask is wide because people not interested. You can potentially make money when people desperately throw to you when you queue.

Once the stock gains attention, very fast the spread reduces and the stock price goes up. That's when you let go.

Note: the stock must be good otherwise you're the bagholder laugh.gif
Yggdrasil
post Apr 7 2020, 04:15 PM

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Time to switch to bull gang?
Yggdrasil
post Apr 7 2020, 07:17 PM

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QUOTE(zulfadzlis @ Apr 7 2020, 07:03 PM)
This is a bull trap . Alot of greedy investor will buy in & then the market will collapse. I think the market will bottom on mid may
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Hmm stocks may fall in may but I'm sure nobody will catch the bottom laugh.gif

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