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Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?
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Showtime747
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 Jul 10 2019, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Jul 10 2019, 02:33 PM) I am not too convinced yet about the bolded above. Goldman S learned the lesson with its involvement in the 1MDB post 2008? Nonetheless just to clarify in this context I am just point the coincidental parallel between Lehman Bro and Deutsche Bank and the catalysts to recession could be multifaceted. Goldman Sachs’s sold the 1MDB loan guaranteed by a sovereign government (almost risk free) at 6% to investor. In the process they pocketed 10% of fees $600m ! If sub-prime loans is used to compare to 1MDB loan, 1MDB loan deal is the best deal ever packaged by a bank for lender. Comparing hell vs heaven Too bad malaysia is on the wrong end |
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Showtime747
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Jul 12 2019, 12:05 AM
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jul 11 2019, 04:42 PM) Actually we got crash in 2016~2017, (oil price) and many oil related stocks crashed massively and not recovering until now, and some went burst as well. That one is sectoral crash, not as widespread as whole market crash. If sectoral crash is included, then we don’t have “trend” already. The 1987, 1998, 2008 are major and “memorable” crashes  |
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Showtime747
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Jul 12 2019, 12:09 AM
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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 11 2019, 08:10 PM) i used Enron to indicate a GIANT company. Yes, it is not a bank. Since you sold your holdings in Oct 2018, how much opportunity cost (ie. gain you would have made) if you didn’t sell and hold it until now ? |
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Showtime747
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Jul 12 2019, 07:55 AM
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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 12 2019, 01:38 AM) The whole Malaysian market crashed from 2q2014-2015. Not just OnG counters. It didn't look so bad from a Ringgit perspective coz Ringgit crashed too.. But if u look at our market from a USD perspective, it was quite horrible. Look at the price chart of EWM etf in that period for proof. Putting forex into equation will complicate matters. I would look at a stock market from the home currency perspective. KLCI dropped from 1800+ to below 1600 in 2015. That’s just around -15%. It doesn’t look like a crash to me. Easy to recover. If a dividend chaser, a 6% stock can recoup in 3 years even if the market never recovers. On the other hand, DJIA in 2008 dropped from high of 14000 to 6500, around 50%. That is a number that will make jaws drop. I am sure these type of numbers will interest people who time the market If 1800+ to 1600 is a crash, then KLCI also experience crash last year when we changed the government. +-10% fluctuation is a lot more common. I am sure many market are having +10% just 2019 alone |
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Showtime747
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Jul 12 2019, 11:36 AM
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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 12 2019, 09:35 AM) Knew someone will be asking me that again. Ha. Like I said before, it depends on the day I compare with, the price and currency are going up and down every week. So cannot say with one answer that I have gained or lost. I sold mine in Dec, not in Oct. Started this thread in Oct seeking views on the things I might have left out in my analysis. Will do a numeric comparison on the anniversary of my "dump day" later this year. Will also do a comparison days after the crash and also 2-3 years later on its recovery. To see how far off I am on my assumptions. No one can make perfect predictions. That is not what I am after. I assumed 50% drop in price in the crash and take 5 years for the price to recover. Even if the drop is only 40%, takes 3 years to recover, I will still be laughing though the overall gain vs doing nothing is smaller. Look ahead and take action where necessary on big items is my advice. Actually your willingness to share what your strategy and belief is commendable  Give the readers here a real life example. Not like Ramjade I have to keep track of his strategy for him, and he keeps on shifting goal post Looking forward for your anniversary review of your strategy. Hope you will show your numbers in December so readers have a better grasp of gain/loss |
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Showtime747
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Jul 12 2019, 03:00 PM
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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 12 2019, 12:28 PM) Forex is not complicated to calculate at all. When it comes to my financial well being and security I will take forex into account. I just don't wory abt short term fluctuations. This is because debasement of currency is a real risk to financial long term health. U can take Venuzela as one example..Venuzelans who didnt take Forex into account (vast majority of them) are dirt poor now. Extreme case yah.. Malaysia not close to tht by large margin.. but well.. In the 90s it was USD1: 2.5 thereabouts. Now is 1USD:4+. Long term decline... In USD terms our market is actually cheaper now than it was in the peak of 90s. When it comes to the big global crisis, usually people will run to the dollar n emerging currencies will fall. But dollar itself will also be de-based because Fed will lower interest rate to zero or negative. To protect against debasement of RM and fiat currencies in general, I make sure I hv USD n gold as insurance. However, in the short term, RM has been gaining vs the USD. But my nightmare scenario is 2021-2022, global recession. 2023, Umno-PAS coalition wins GE... You have to decide which currency is your base currency. Looks like you use USD as your base currency ? So when USD is down to 2.90+ during QE, your returns are no good at all in terms of RM. How about when JPY and GBP devaluation ? Does the stock market “crashed” in USD term ? That is what I mean by “complication”.... |
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Showtime747
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Jul 13 2019, 08:33 AM
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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 12 2019, 05:24 PM) Since most of my assets and expenses are currently in MYR, base currency is MYR. So when I track investment value n performance, I convert foreign currency assets to prevailing MYR. It's not something I do everyday one.. Once a month or maybe two months. That's usually when my foreign currency FD matures... .I also look at trends to decide Top up, maintain or reduce.. But I don't trade US market... I support Bursa Malaysia.. 😆 The way I look at things is from the source of funds. If original salary/business income is in RM, then the RM used to invest is the base currency. If salary/business income is i not USD, then USD is the base currency. |
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Showtime747
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Jul 13 2019, 08:38 AM
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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jul 12 2019, 10:55 PM) Yes, people only consider 1987, 1998 and 2008 as stock market crashes... the real crashes when there is no doubt people are shitting bricks .... By far the worst of course is 1998... the mother of all crashes ... So, are we due for one ? In fact, overdue already ... Surely one day will come. But nobody knows when. It is impossible to time the market. The odds is the same as lottery tickets. Purely luck, no known technics. Best is based on gut feeling. Because God control everybody  If God is on the bad mood that day, then you kena. If God wakes up on the right side of the bed that day, then you huat liao.... |
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Showtime747
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Jul 16 2019, 05:20 PM
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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 16 2019, 01:48 PM) Malaysia n China (HK) equity market, this work for me, so far "so far..." is how long ? Curious... |
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Showtime747
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Jul 16 2019, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 16 2019, 06:02 PM) I started DIY investing in 2012.. Still a young investor....enjoy your journey ! |
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Showtime747
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Jul 16 2019, 10:29 PM
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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 16 2019, 06:32 PM) Belief and value are the main drivers of one's decision and action. We all have different beliefs and values. So suggest to agree to disagree, and not argue on who is right or wrong.   Cheerio. Actually we can quantify you are right or wrong, if you reveal what you sold. Just like how we track Ramjade's targeted stocks. It is not an argument to agree or disagree. It is all numbers and numbers don't lie. However, I asked twice and apparently you refused to reveal |
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Showtime747
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Jul 17 2019, 04:29 PM
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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jul 16 2019, 11:35 PM) +1 he did mentioned few posts ago that he only lost out on 2% ... If only 2%, that means the stock he held were lousy stock. In general, most stock increased in the 10% range since Dec 2018 ? Only lousy stock failed to increase when others flew. It is actually a great move to sell those stocks ! And use the money to buy value stocks when the market dips |
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Showtime747
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Jul 17 2019, 04:35 PM
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 17 2019, 07:38 AM) » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Sorry I do not quite agree.  Here's why.... a bit long winded la. Sorry. post # 1. A constructive feedback/discussion was asked. For the record, I entered this discussion and made the following comment. post # 291Yeah, so for me, what's the point really in gauging the performance of the stock that was sold? Constructive feedback/discussion based on the strategy of clearing stocks before the crash. I ASSUMED it's a worthwhile discussion to blow some water. Talk about the risks of such a strategy. However the TS since then had stubbornly acknowledged that such a strategy is not Market Timing. Kept on insisting on things such as "agree to disagree" but what's there to agree or disagree about the simple definition of Market Timing? I am guessing now. Perhaps the phrase Market Timing is too sensitive or maybe even taboo since the term Market Timing is commonly associated with traders and perhaps there's a phobia of being known as a trader. I don't know la. Anyway, all this is getting too repetitive for me. I shall take a leave of absence for the time being and not wanting to know and gauge the performance of the stock sold. This is my preference la. I am not bothered to know la because it's so pointless for me. Anyway do carry on if you are interested. I wonder if the TS will ever reveal. Peace.  Oh....my response was purely to his "no right or wrong..." comment. We can actually rate his disposal in December 2018 is a "right or wrong" move, if he is willing to disclose the stocks he sold. "Right or wrong" here means "profit or loss"/"opportunity cost" We can monitor his 1 months, quarterly, half-yearly, yearly, 2, 5, 10 years. That is what I mean by "can find out whether it is right or wrong" |
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Showtime747
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Jul 17 2019, 04:43 PM
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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 17 2019, 12:43 PM) TS sold all in December last year r. There is still more than 5 months to end of the year. Could still big crash coming this year, SnP500 and KLCI start falling down to 1200 levels... . Owai.. World will shake n TS will say I told u so...😅 Exactly ! I can see TS is not confident with his own strategy. Why scared to reveal which stocks he sold now ? When crash really come, he could have been so "right" ! I would give him 3 claps because his strategy works If crash never come, I wouldn't laugh at him also. I don't earn a single cent from him....And I am out of stock market since mid-2017 and is not planning to return But by giving out a number, it will give the readers here something tangible to gauge the strategy. It is a real case study ! This post has been edited by Showtime747: Jul 17 2019, 04:44 PM |
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Showtime747
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Jul 17 2019, 05:35 PM
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 17 2019, 05:24 PM) Well, I for one, did seriously think that perhaps this was interesting topic on market strategy. Blow some water mah.... share some opinions..and maybe thought I might pick up a thing or two.... Yea very interesting topic... I am kind of a result guy....just an analogy below.... TS is like opening a thread asking whether it is better to doggy or missionary. In Dec 2018, he chose missionary position. TS and you guys continue to talk about the advantages and disadvantages of both positions and give all the theories about the different positions and what not.... To me (and I believe to most readers too), it matters more whether TS can make the girl cum with his chosen position That is what I mean by result oriented |
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Showtime747
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Jul 17 2019, 08:19 PM
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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 17 2019, 07:22 PM) Take your time, don’t rush, you should be able to make her cum In your case, she cum 1 time and you already huat.... |
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