I would look at it like this : this time, the Feds are more attentive to world events, and more sensitive to whatever that is happening in the world, however big or small. Hence, quick actions have been put in place before it's too late. Yes - Feds holding rates also points to weaker economic growth today compared to earlier. But isn't it good that the Feds stops in time ?

In 2008, what happened back then was not something that the Feds could see coming. The subprime crisis happened overnight, and Bear Stearns was the first to start giving bad signals. That was a totally different scenario compared to what we have today. Of course, Feds had the 5% ammo back then - this 5% contributed to the crisis too, besides easy-lending practices and no control over loans back then.

NK contributes sentiment to the financial world - this has been proven many times.

Brexit contributes to problems in The Eurozone, and The Eurozone, as a big economic bloc, influences world financial mkts. This was proven back in 2016 when world mkts drop after the Referendum results, after that victory speech by Nigel (something),.... When the votes were being counted and as we see more and more voters leaning towards separation, world indices dropped lower and lower,...

Tq bro,.. For my SG holdings, I think I'm going to continue holding-on to my SG REITs, UMS and Astrea IV - wi;; not sell this month. I will even subscribe to the Rights Issue of Frasers Centrepoint Trust, but I will not apply for too many Excesses.

If we continue to hold,.. and are not affected by margin calls, the mkt will always bounce back !

1) I guessed we are always talking abt good fundamentals,... and that having good fundamentals is ALL it takes for a 'good' company to survive,... have we not thought of the fact that in today's disruptive world, good fundamentals may turn into poor fundamentals in varying mkt conditions ?

2) We are all waiting for stocks to drop so that we can buy-in, and ride the tide up when mkt conditions improve,... how abt good stocks not dropping, and we buy in NOW, then ride the tide up from this level when mkt conditions improve ?

I'm aware of the buyer and seller sides - hence, my opinions above in 1) and 2) as mind-triggers...

Debt bubbles of households, corporates, and even individuals all start from here,... When any of these debts are called back, one entity falls and the rest tumbles like dominoes...

Hehe,... I am strategizing now to go into share margin financing - wanting to play a 'higher game' now.

Perhaps I'll contribute a point w/ regards to currency here, for myself, I regard the MYR as my base currency since most of my expenses are in the MYR. But my investments are in foreign currencies. Everytime the MYR weakens vs any of my investment currency, I feel safe.

My measurement is how much MYR I will get to support my lifestyle due to my investments.

I measure my portfolio outside of the ctry based on each portfolio in each ctry. I don't lump up all my assets and try using one currency to measure.

Using SARS (16.11.2002 till 31.5.2003) as a model today, the STI will drop by 5% to 7% upon any material news being released.

The STI dropped by 15% from the first material news being released to the lowest point before the index starts to turn-up.

If we believe the same model will hold this time round,... we will have to decide :-
1) when as the first material news released ?
2) what was the STI level then ?
3) what are the following material news to be released ?

But today, we also have the trade war in our midst, hence, we need to double the volatility factor.

I must say it's more towards recovery in asset prices in stock exchanges,... but economic recovery in numbers, egs GDP, unemployment, etc, still hav rooms to fall. Nowadays, I noticed,.... mkts keep trying to move up or if numbers are not good, will either stay still or fall a bit only,....

Truely,... the saying,... THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT.

Hi bro,....

Well,... I have done the following :-

1) Took profit on Frasers Centrepoint Trust when I started becoming suspicious,... I held this counter for a few years.

2) Took profit on Netlink NBN Trust, held for a few years too.

3) Cutloss on Lendlease GCR yesterday when it rose to 0.64,...

4) Over many buys, bought more of and averaged-down the US-, European- and UK-based SG REITs.

5) Averaged-down Sasseur REIT.

6) Averaged-down Capital Mall Trust.

Thinks that abt covered it all,... don't know if I have made money,.. because I poured back everything into the mkt,... and still holding cash now,...

Bought too slowly,...

Ok bro,... you sold 3/4 REITs,... what are the ctrs that you did not sell, that makes up the remaining 1/4 ?

There are just so many theories,... you are right,... I have one theory that I am subscribing to for now : the STI will not touch 2200 points again due to the current pandemic and due to the current low oil price. Hence, if the STI reverses again,.. as it goes near to 2200, I will buy again.

Wow,... you guys are REIT traders,... yes, this would be another avenue for earning returns,...



Bro,.. just wondering,... why do you still keep iREIT and EC World REIT - their gearing are very high,... but I know, the gearing limit has been increased by the MAS from 45% to 50% now. Still,... among the SG REITs, these two would pose higher failure rates, right ?

Furthermore,...

1) iREIT has tenant concentration and mkt cap risks - too small.
2) EC World REIT has a tenant that is not renewing soon,...

For European assets denominated in the Euro exposure, I would go with Cromwell EU REIT. For standard European assets exposure, I go with Cromwell and Frasers Logistics Turst (denominated in the SGD).

Lippo Mall is a gamble now,.. but First REIT is looking attractive ? If any further negative development shld happen to any of these two REITs, I opine that Lippo Karawaci would save First REIT instead of LMIRT.

We can't sell everything too,... even if most REITs are going to cut dpus this year, having something is still better than having nothing, right ?

Edited to correct my explanations of European assets in the above to make it more precise !

This post has been edited by Hansel: Apr 19 2020, 12:59 PM

Tq for your opinions, bro,... I'll comment that with my foreign assets mostly denominated in the SGD, I remain very cautious abt investing into foreign mkts, incl The USA. The withholding tax is definitely one put-off, since I am more into income investing.

The SGD tends to strengthen vs any currency the moment it is given a chance to do so. For income-investing into the USA, I'll stick to the SG REITs with assets in The USA for now.

Yeah,... I still have the minimum number for HSBC,... I collected only one round of dpu and this dpu payouts got frozen,....

Leaving the shares there for now. 20+% red position.

Yeah,.... I'm doing the same as your comment in the above too, bro,... and kena 'falling knives' too back in March.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Apr 21 2020, 12:41 PM

Yeah,... somehow, my gut feel told me not to buy too many. Hence I JUST BOUGHT THE MINIMUM 400 UNITS UNITS lot size only,.... Very fortunate here myself,...

Capitaland Mall Trust (CMT) will be merging with Capital Commercial Trust soon. The strength here will be in the size of this REIT after this, which will allow this REIT to be included into REIT indices everywhere.

But CMT's malls and retails will definitely be affected by the pandemic. No doubt abt that. Thing is how bad will the effect be,... but the offices in its portfolio later will mitigate some of the impact.

Pays dividend four times a year, has not changed this payout frequency.... yet,...

You are welcome, bro,....

I continue to be cautiously optimistic over the decisions that will be made by the SG govt...

Yeah, I think some offices will be impacetd by the new WFH behaviour being encouraged in these times.

Observe closely as many reports as you can during this earnings season, bro,... some positive egs :-
1) PLife REIT will be setting aside 1.7Mil in case this fund is needed to help tenants during these times. For the most recent reporting yesterday morning, 850K has been 'held back', BUT its dpu payout increased nevertheless compared to the previous corresponding period.
2) Keppel DC REIT's business update did not mention of any amt being held back.
3) Keppel Infra Trust's business update remains steady and the same dpu payout of 0.93c is given out.
4) Keppel Pacific Oak may have some small provisions reported next quarter, but the amt will be small,...

Without doubt, the environment today remains very fluid and things can change very quickly, but we still need to invest. I will bank on our years of studying and exposure to the mkt to be able to help us in these trying times today.

My total portfolio position is +14.99% at close today.

Mapletree Logistics Trust's recent quarter results has just been released. Very good results,... no provision has been held back,.....

Have a look, bro,....

Ok bros,...

If we include potential divvy payouts into our measurement, then I would think the SG non-retail REITs will do better then the S&P Index. The think abt the SG retail EITs is not so much as not being able to bounce back (which I still carry the belief that they will bounce back), but the problem is with the Temporary Measures, the tenants do not have to pay rental for 6 months and are obligated to pay ALL 6 months after that.

If the pandemic situation does not improve after 6 mths, the SG govt may extend this Temporary Measures for another 6 mths up to one year. I really can't see how a tenant is able to pay accumulated rent after one year. The security deposit will not be able to cover much.

Chances are as good as zero dpu payout for retail REITs this year because this pandemic is the main reason affecting their business.

For the financial assets segment of my investments, I hold mostly REITs and stocks, bros,...

Timeframe-wise,.. I see everywhere,... people are mentioning 6 mths to one year for recovery.

I continue to scour the landscape to invest into REITs and stocks that can continue to pay out divdiends to us,... in sectors that will not be impacted badly. I continue to carry the belief that I can be paid to wait for the recovery.

REITs will give me capital gain too as the economic ecosystem continues to improve, and as I wait fro more capital gain, I will be able to reap dividends along the way. Of course, I must have the analytical skills, the experience and the wisdom to choose the right REITs.