Affected countries cannot counter-reciprocate, otherwise.....

that sounds stupid... japan and korea already joining china.
wonder how long we can stay neutral

and how will this effect crypto

While I don't support Trumps crazy ideas, other countries have been doing this to the USA and now that the tables have turned, they go and cry unfair. China's been doing this for so many years to every country in the world. At the end of the day, everyone is likely to just soak in the tariff and start looking for ways to reduce it by setting up in USA. It will cost more for the US citizen in the long run but Trump doesn't care if this works out.

I guess crypto will follow stock futures and dip a little.

By right, it's their country. They do what they want to do, not to be told by the world what to do. Some countries may has resentment because they no longer have advantage selling to the American market.

Btw, how was portfolio? Still holding or just trading nowadays?

This cycle bitcoin(not altcoin) has been holding up VERY WELL against stocks or SP500 index.

In the past, news headline like "China ban crypto" is bear market trigger news in 2017. Tariff war is 10x uglier news than china ban crypto. So bitcoin really holding up very very solid.

For example, Microstrategy stock is down almost -50% compare to bitcoin only down -23%.

We will know the market reaction once US market open tomorrow

for me, theres nothing to trade. everything is slowly bleeding.
all the alts look like shit
just hold bitcoin, if you bought before trump is in office, still in green.

yeah its true he is free to decide what for his country. but seeing stocks and everything goes down isn't really assuring haha

well i have no idea on what are we exporting to america and what is even our tariff on america so thats why wondering on what basis the 47% number comes from.

It did a post market crash and the futures are still down but the rest of the world seems to have taken the punch to the face and just accepted that there was even a 'discount' on the tariff. It's as good as it gets. Could have been worse.

Unfortunately i have also diversified into other alt in anticipating alt season that is currently at lost.
If the stock market continue its sell off tomorrow there is a chance it will drag down btc with it. Let's hope for the best

This post has been edited by Vrese: Apr 3 2025, 01:45 PM

What leads you to believe BTC can shake off this FUD?

I want to share something which you guys can help backtesting.

CME GAP. CME gap is the hole left by btc pumping/dumping when the market is closed.

I noticed, almost 97% gaps are filled with proper candle's body. Dont count the wicks. For example, last night there is new CME gap at 85100-86000.

Maybe you guys can help me to find the missing gaps that hast been fill. CME Gap that I found.
1. 85100-86000 (latest one)
2. 77370 - 84485 (8-11 November 2024)
3. 9615 - 9935 (24 July -27 July 2020)
4. 20280 -21295 (10 March 2023)

If 1 & 2 were to fill, I believe it will fill others as well. Timeframe I dont know.

Tradingview tracker is BTC1! (Bitcoin Futures CME).

Edited: Found another (4) 20280 -21295 10 March 2023.

This post has been edited by mois: Apr 3 2025, 03:54 PM

I believe you already know that all gaps will eventually be filled. Most traders believe this but is usually used on a lower timeframe, within the day it is formed. I see this every few weeks in my forex trading and gaps formed on Mondays are usually filled by London session on the same day. However once it is not filled on Monday, the gap filling idea will be invalided and we forget about it. However, the previous close before the gap will be used as a weekly high/low (depending whether we gap up or down) that will be a target for liquidity to be filled in the future.

I used Daily chart for btc. I guess daily chart for btc can consider big time frame in crypto world.
This one is interesting one. December 2020 gaps filled in June 2022. Today is the first time I analyze CME gap and it look really interesting. Back then I just ignored it.

Reason for it to be on small timeframe is because on longer time frame it is no longer a viable strategy. 2 years to fill a gap is not a strategy. It's just an eventuality. A gap is usually a reaction over a weekend event that is reflected on Monday when the market opens. The gap is a short term reaction and should not be used for a long term strategy. Like I said, once the gap is not filled, it is considered as failed and the previous week's level becomes the next high/low to be targeted but no longer have a fix timeframe to do so.

There should be a target within an achievable timeframe which is why gap filling is usually looked at on how the market reacts on Monday. Your gap wasn't filled in 2022. The gap fill was considered failed on the day after it was formed in 2020. You don't hold a gap for 2 years and call it something to look at.

I think you got my message wrong about CME gap. I am not talking about the trading strategy based on CME gap. More like toward eventuality like you said. Yeah recently the gaps acts like magnet reaction. Over the last 2 months, selling gaps eventually filled. Do you personally form a strategy based on short term gap? Or just ignore it?

To me the gap is just the next target level to be filled. For example, if a gap forms downwards and it does not gets filled then the lower high formed under the gap will be the next target that price will gravitate towards hence invalidating the price level at the gap. The gap is then considered failed and ignored.

If a lower high is not formed and the price is still gravitating towards the gap then it is still valid and waiting to be filled. Again, the gap is nothing more than just the next price level waiting to be filled.

That is how I use the gap on every Monday morning during the Asian sessions. Most selling gaps that I trade are filled because the news that made the gap over the weekend turns out to be 'meh'. Once the gap is filled then I'd look towards liquidity pushing the price back down or a break of structure and continuing up. A strong valid news will likely to continue pushing the price down and the gap will not be filled.

dun pay too much attention to gaps... price actions/movements are more important... this determines if a gap will be filled or not within a reasonable time frame say within a week or so... anything more than that ppl are just making up stories to fill their content...

a gap will always attract attention... this is herd mentality...

Alright. Only little attention should be suffice since it cannot provide any trading strategy. Imagine it created a gap to be filled 2-5 years later.

But still, the gaps are really interesting. Before today, I totally ignored it.

Anyways, lets see 10pm later. SPX Futures is down -3%.