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> The maths behind Sports Toto 4D, and other lotteries etc

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TSkelvinlym
post Apr 6 2017, 02:42 PM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Apr 6 2017, 07:38 AM)
i think those Grand, Supreme, Power, is reserved for unique people that required some special services, because the rate is so low, it means, i'm not saying it is, but provides a good opportunity to rig a number to certain client.

for 4D, it's high chance some random guy will also hit the jackpot.

but 6/XX, chances are dunno how many billion in 1.
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More like tens of million to one. Billion to one nobody will play because payouts will be very rare.
SUSadvocado
post Apr 6 2017, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Apr 6 2017, 02:39 PM)
Yes I agree. If value is not a factor and I'm only going big or go bust, I'll definitely buy 1 number and bet my firstborn.
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some people bet every draw, maybe only after 30-40 years hit something really big.

if you bet only rm1, difficult, unless you bet on jackpot, but even jackpot, if you bet system 20, even win jackpot, also not much.
ricstc
post Apr 6 2017, 02:45 PM

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TSkelvinlym
post Apr 6 2017, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Apr 6 2017, 07:43 AM)
some people bet every draw, maybe only after 30-40 years hit something really big.

if you bet only rm1, difficult, unless you bet on jackpot, but even jackpot, if you bet system 20, even win jackpot, also not much.
*
Of course. You can't have both ways. Lower probability, higher payouts, and vice versa.

We use expected return/value to make comparisons between probability and payouts to find what is the best value for money.

Like why some prefer to play slots while others play baccarat in casino.

Slots have lower probability but can one shot win big, whereas table games higher probability but hard to win big with small bet.

That's why number games appeal to the public more. The majority of people prefer to risk a small amount for the miniscule probability to win big.
However, in the end only the casino or house wins, due to the law of large numbers.

In short, more people prefer to have 1% chance to win RM100, than 50% chance to win RM2.
SUSadvocado
post Apr 6 2017, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Apr 6 2017, 02:52 PM)
Of course. You can't have both ways. Lower probability, higher payouts, and vice versa.

We use expected return/value to make comparisons between probability and payouts to find what is the best value for money.

Like why some prefer to play slots while others play baccarat in casino.

Slots have lower probability but can one shot win big, whereas table games higher probability but hard to win big with small bet.

That's why number games appeal to the public more.  The majority of people prefer to risk a small amount for the miniscule probability to win big.
However, in the end only the casino or house wins, due to the law of large numbers.

In short, more people prefer to have 1% chance to win RM100, than 50% chance to win RM2.
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i think most people play slots, because they don't know how to play other games.

just my opinion though.
TSkelvinlym
post Apr 6 2017, 02:54 PM

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Double post

This post has been edited by kelvinlym: Apr 6 2017, 02:55 PM
TSkelvinlym
post Apr 6 2017, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Apr 6 2017, 07:54 AM)
i think most people play slots, because they don't know how to play other games.

just my opinion though.
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Yes, simplicity is also a factor. Like why there are no craps tables in most casinos any more.

Games must balance simplicity, fun, reward and risk. It's an art by itself.
aliesterfiend
post Apr 6 2017, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(youngy @ Apr 6 2017, 01:33 PM)
This Saturday apa number for 1st Prize?
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5548
Shinka
post Apr 6 2017, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(advocado @ Apr 6 2017, 02:38 PM)
i think those Grand, Supreme, Power, is reserved for unique people that required some special services, because the rate is so low, it means, i'm not saying it is, but provides a good opportunity to rig a number to certain client.

for 4D, it's high chance some random guy will also hit the jackpot.

but 6/XX, chances are dunno how many billion in 1.
*
Power Toto = 1 in 28,989,675

Supreme Toto = 1 in 40,475,358

Grand Toto = 1 in 67,945,521
AyamBlend
post Apr 6 2017, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(HongKi @ Apr 6 2017, 02:07 PM)
HOLLY SHIT!!!!
I dont understand any of this but thanks.
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That's why education system problem, suggest one education system only..... etc etc
donfutsal
post Apr 6 2017, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Apr 6 2017, 01:25 PM)
Next we move on the iPerm bets, where things get much more interesting.

user posted image

1. The expected value is -RM0.28 for the BIG bet.  Why the big discrepancy?  This is because of the Starter and Consolation payouts.  TOTO does not want to bother with cent payouts, therefore they pay RM8 and RM3 for those prizes instead of RM7.50 and RM2.50, which is RM180/24 and RM60/24 respectively.

2. For SMALL bets, there are no differences.

Strategy: Buy iPerm 24 BIG bet to maximise your value.  You will see later that other iPerm bets will not match the iPerm 24 BIG bet.

Here are the rest of the iPerm bets.

iPerm 12

user posted image

iPerm 6

user posted image

iPerm 4

user posted image

TLDR: Buy iPerm 24 BIG.

I'll analyse the Jackpot games when I have time.
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all fix by BN & UMNO thumbup.gif




youngy
post Apr 6 2017, 03:11 PM

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QUOTE(aliesterfiend @ Apr 6 2017, 03:59 PM)
5548
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Oh.. thanks... Belanja you minum if kena. LOL
Lyu
post Apr 6 2017, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(GibeDeMuny @ Apr 6 2017, 02:30 PM)
Sat 4D 1st prize is 2374

if win ayem lari bogel and guling2 in suria kk
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This fella pro
He knows the famous number

Less likely First to Third btw
kelvinfixx
post Apr 6 2017, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(Slowpokeking @ Apr 6 2017, 01:45 PM)
Go buy gaming company shares better than betting.
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Name pls
latipbogiba
post Apr 6 2017, 04:05 PM

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BERUSAHA SUNGGUH!
Newsray
post Apr 6 2017, 04:14 PM

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The system will check which numbers and how much bought.

Then generate a different number.

It will still payout to winner or else nobody will bet. Like a gambling machine?
GnomeMage
post Apr 6 2017, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Apr 6 2017, 01:25 PM)
Next we move on the iPerm bets, where things get much more interesting.

user posted image

1. The expected value is -RM0.28 for the BIG bet.  Why the big discrepancy?  This is because of the Starter and Consolation payouts.  TOTO does not want to bother with cent payouts, therefore they pay RM8 and RM3 for those prizes instead of RM7.50 and RM2.50, which is RM180/24 and RM60/24 respectively.

2. For SMALL bets, there are no differences.

Strategy: Buy iPerm 24 BIG bet to maximise your value.  You will see later that other iPerm bets will not match the iPerm 24 BIG bet.

Here are the rest of the iPerm bets.

iPerm 12

user posted image

iPerm 6

user posted image

iPerm 4

user posted image

TLDR: Buy iPerm 24 BIG.

I'll analyse the Jackpot games when I have time.
*
if expected value all negative why play at all lol only play positive expected value games.

btw aren't u in Germany? lots of lottery games there
nearlee
post Apr 6 2017, 04:18 PM

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cool story brah

Nearlee

SUScitacitata
post Apr 6 2017, 04:27 PM

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I play system 6. All 3 companies.

What are my actual odds of winning?
TSkelvinlym
post Apr 6 2017, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(GnomeMage @ Apr 6 2017, 09:17 AM)
if expected value all negative why play at all lol only play positive expected value games.

btw aren't u in Germany? lots of lottery games there
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ALL lottery games are negative value. If positive then there will not be any of these games on offer. People will find out and exploit it.

Take blackjack for example, remember the MIT guys who counted cards. They were working with about 1 or 2% positive value. But they could identify when it's positive, so they bet big when value is positive.

In short, positive value games in lottery are non existent.

That's the reason I rarely play these kinda games. Only once in awhile like the Eurojackpot when the pot goes up to max and trickles down to the lower levels.

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