This post is to shed light on the odds, risks and strategy of these games, for better understanding to punters.

I will try to explain the mathematics, hopefully in simple English. I'm by no means a mathematician, so if my mathematics are wrong, please point it out. Constructive criticism will be accepted, useless comments ignored.

First things first.

1. It is assumed that the numbers being picked are random and not pseudo random.

2. I do not condone nor condemn gambling. This is purely from a mathematics perspective and to give punters a well-informed decision to improve their strategy and money management.

**I'll start with the normal 4D games.**

1. Rules and payout/prizes please refer to https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/4231708

2. There are 10000 possible combinations, therefore the odds to hit straight up is 1 in 10000 or 0.0001 or 0.01%. But there are numerous prize levels and payouts based on the prizes, therefore it's not 0.01% to win something (with these odds, no one would be playing).

3. Let's go with the calculation. We normalise the bets to RM1, which is the smallest denominator we can play (and for easier calculation).

4. We look at expected return for each RM1 bet, then when we compare what we expect to get, we'll know which strategy to go for (or rather which strategy has more value.

5. If you buy the BIG bet, your odds to win something, anything is 0.23% (cell E8). But because there are varying prizes, your expected return is

**-RM0.36**. In layman terms, every time you bet RM1, you expect to lose RM0.36 to TOTO. This is also the profit that TOTO makes per bet (before expenses, taxes etc).

6. For SMALL bet, the odds are smaller to win something, which is 0.03%, and expected return is about the same

**-RM0.35**

7. For better value for money, the SMALL bet is the choice, but you will see less chances to win something, but when you win, you win more. The RM0.01 difference is for TOTO to offset the higher cost of more people claiming prizes for the BIG bet.

Calculation (Google Sheets)