The market is simply bubbly. Lots of millennials playing. Lots of returning players. You can see stocks played up based on ridiculous reasons. Bubbly.

So yeah it could worth a shot.

Me? Not doing anything. Just relaxing. Good luck though.

I am no Livermore lo. Never will.

On shorting. Paper shorted on several occasions. Results were never good. Roughly about 48% success rate or rather 52% failure.

So nah... I won't be shorting. Not my cuppa.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/the-us-ente...2xMl0lue8gbGCjo


That is why you never ever want to do silly things like selling your stocks before recession. Such confirmation (economic figures) are so lagging that it makes no sense to make your trading decision based on such indicators.

You watch and pay attention to the tree and not the forest.

Same with selling just because you think the market would crash.

Ah Billy, I am a picky trader. I trade only when I see a big killing is possible, if don't have, I just sit and do nothing. Yup, ask yourself, is there meat in the trade? What are you trading for? KFC? Aiyoyo.. that's the sure way to die. The profit potential must always, always be bigger than the potential money you will lose when you screw up your trade. Win big or do nothing la. So when I swing, I really swing for the fences with a big fat bat. I do not mean to simply trade anything. IF THERE IS NO MEAT, DON'T TRADE. Many, many will fall here cos they try to trade as often as possible. I don't. I wait. And if it comes, I go big. Get the difference? If you bet big just trying to win a KFC or iphone, this is one successful way to lose money la. So don't simply simply big, ok?


Trading setups? Aiyoyo. This is a must mah. The very basic thing. You need to define your strategy. Like going to a war. If you don't have your strategy, how to win the battles? And if you keep losing battles, sure you die la.

Your trading entries.... do you have one?

When to sell the stock for a profit? When to sell and take the loss?

Do you or better put ...can you stick to your trading plan?

If you don't plan, how to win a battle? If you don't win the battles, how to win the war?

personal update.... the blue line indicated when I last posted the chart..... ( ref post #2200 )


vs





vs





vs





vs

The whole concept of paper trading is discovering what is good but most important what is not good. Stay away from the things that we sucked at. Bottom line is making money and not trying to win every single trade, every single swing.

If buy and hold suits you, stick to it. Understand your reason why you are buying the stock and understand when you should sell the stock for a loss and when you should sell the stock for a profit too. Know when you should sell. Buy and hold is ok la. It's still like trading but on a longer time frame.

ps: I am still trying to learn more everyday.

LOL. It's over for me La.

See in a sector, which one to play? The answer is always to choose either the top 2 la. Harta and Comfort was merely included to gauge the sector only.

Ps. It was a pure speculation play. Glove stocks have so much yucky issues.

Gave it another thought this morning.

Betting on dark horses, the second or the third liner, on the average it really, really never pays as well as the top players.
Top stocks in any given sector is top is given the top rating because it outperforms, in terms of share price movement.
Firstly, now we are in this to WIN money right?
right?
Yes, I know, this is a TRADER thread and I am a trader ....
BUT..................
does it really matter? We are IN the market to win money and for me, it doesn't matter if one is investing or trading, most important for me, is that we can adapt the best strategy that helps me win money consistently in the long run.

Now the reason to be in the glove sector was mentioned CASUALLY in the following posting #2123..
please do READ that....
now if one is ok and assessed all the necessary RISKS that the SPECULATION that glove markers will once again soar, like it did during the SARS and one had realised that the top stock in the sector SOARED, then what's left is to choose which stock.

My principle, one sector, only one stock. That's what suits me. Whack it all. Doesn't matter if one says I'm putting all the eggs in one basket. YES, normally that's not the wise thing to do BUT if one had assess the risk properly, why not? All I need to know is when to know I am bloody WRONG, admit it, and cut my loss. Most important, I must know where and when my exit strategy. The risk is all the same.

So choosing the stock. I must not be lazy. Open the situpid charts and check. Exercise my fingers. Which one outperform the most during the SARS era?

Again it points out to TOP GLOVE and SUPERMAX.

One of these two..... easy pick. I asked myself which one did I dislike the least... lol...


Now looking at the current result...
TOP GLOVE how many baggers?
SUPERMAX how many baggers?
aren't they big, big winners?

Look at Kossan... yes, it has performed well but has it even doubled its price yet?

So once again, the results show.....




ps...in the next few years, if another pandemic strikes, would I consider Kossan? Sorry answer is no. It's a second liner... and second liner usually comes in second.
Just applying the basic law of average.....

That day the posted chart was like this macam....



today the chart is like this macam...



macam macam update la.....

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jun 17 2020, 03:19 PM

Just making sure you are awake......

This other share is also interesting... slightly the same as ARBB but not quite the same...

AT and AT-W

AT price 12.5 sen.
AT-W price 5 sen.

conversion is 1:1 priced at 0.035 each.....

huge premium and it's fairly 'newly' listed warrant....
yeah... AT is losing money financially atm.... LOL.... but given the huge premium percentage ... there is yet a conversion to ordinary share...
so either AT is grossly overvalued (lol... how many really care valuation for such low price penny stock) or the warrant is grossly under priced



just notes only and is not a fluckin' stock tipsy...
so if mabuk dun point and blame....

Do realise what I mentioned is based on the assumption that one goes in 'early' at the start of a sector play and at the moment, risks are so much higher playing these glove stocks.

Well... you got your profit.

You seem anxious to sell. Scared to lose your profit?

Look back at the TG post. I sold my glove stock only because the collective charts flashed clear sign to me that I should sell for my profit. It matched my setup to sell for a profit because we witnessed the classical trader sign of what they called rally climax. I was lucky because the very next day, the stock retreated substantially for the very first time. What's interesting in the following is this.....

say you have zero idea wtf a rally climax is or you could tell....but you actually could use the very first day the stock corrects substantially as your sell indicator... look what happened on that day or more precisely where your sell price would have been? see? you could always sell for a much better price....

in the very same perspective... this is very much like selling before the market crashes... compare if one had simply sell in 2018 vs if one sell only in March 2020... see the very much difference in stock price? (assumption always is that the stock selection is so, so important... )

so again.... my saying to you is the same... wait.

But you sold.... LOL! Doesn't matter, does it?

Anyway, let me post up some selected tech stock charts in a few mins time...

Here are some selected stock charts.... the blue vertical line indicated 4th June... the day you asked me...











here are my 3sen opinions...

1. most of the tech stocks have done pretty well since early March...

2. now this for me was the matter of preference. If I had not chosen the glove stocks, for sure the tech sector 'might' have been a choice for me... but then it's June and frankly, these stocks in June was not in my buy setup. Not that cannot buy ( and if you would recall my earnest reply to you was that it was worth a shot) but most of the tech stocks simply had been trending nicely and imo the trend could still have legs to go very much further....

yeah, it's complicated. lol. I see them going up much higher but I would not trade it.... LOL. Make sense?

3. If I had chosen the tech sector instead of glove stock, clearly I would have just sit on my fat SSSS and not do twiddly... there is no sell indicator, so why la sell?

LOL! You bought much earlier than June 4th .....

I don't follow this stock. Hahaha.... Dunno what UWC stands for.. dunno what it does.. lol...

Considering your purchase price... LOL..... why sell? Seriously la..... I don't see the weakness la... in fact it does looks interesting...cos we could even have a pennant play here....




Anyway, do a paper trade yourself here...
assume you DID not sell...
assume you will hold the stock till the day the stock actually corrects (more than 5%) ....
mark that price vs your sell price today...

why?

it seems you are selling AHEAD.....

... see ... you do realise that when a stock PE is HIGH... it means the price is high ie the stock is in demand... so lemme say again... dun be so afraid la....
hold it... your risk is still based on your cost price ma.... and if you have to give back some profit, lol, don't be stingy la...give back 10 or 20 sen is ok one....


ps.... 'when people do buy call'.... err.... I have been pretty much avoiding these statements for last few years already...in fact, I see my trading improving a lot since then... these buy/sell call are noises one is much better off avoiding.

ps/ps .... if you do use TA to sell... do not predict lo...

Time to evaluate my posting on Mayban...

Meat... meat.... meat.... where is the meat?!

this question always, always needed to be asked. If there is no meat, what's the justification in betting?

Here is an updated chart of Mayban



this was the chart posted in Oct 2019...



ok, a dividend of 0.39 has been paid since Oct 2019...

but what's most interesting is the down channel..... yes?

1. Ask.. ask... Where's the meat??????

Tell me. What kind of profit do you see? 10%? Surely not 20%..

2. In it just for the dividend??

??

Simpan BAT posting here.....


Since 2015, BAT dividends totals...



2015 -- 312.00
2016 -- 278.00
2017 -- 169.00
2018 -- 155.00
2019 -- 118.00
2020 -- 50.00 **

** BAT dividend for 2020 so far is half year. Assuming same rate of payout, we are looking at total dividend of only 100.00 **
** clearly the dividends is declining like hell! **

from 2015 to currently, BAT has paid 1082.00 in dividend (ie rm10,820.00 per 1,000 shares)

.....
Price of BAT today is 10.76.

if one purchase or invested in BAT for its dividends about 5 years ago, the price of BAT on 23rd June 2015 is 60.80.

dividends collected is 1082
price today is 10.76

which means one is looking at a holding a loss of 39.22 (60.82-10.82-10.76) !!!!!

** if one purchase on 23rd June 2015, one collected less 176.00 in dividends, since these dividends were paid before June 2015!! **


so do be careful, do not simply invest just because of dividends !!! Dividend investing has its fair share of risk!!!!



invested ~ 60k... for dividends... now losing 39k cos the share price has collapsed!!!

Ok. Got time now.

Let's ASSUME that this is a DIVIDEND play.

Say I tell you, Billy oh Billy, you should go invest la, Maybank. Based on the trailing dividends of 0,64 sen (Maybank dividend is actually INCREASING, ok!!) and a price of 7.62, we are talking of a yield of 6.98%.

Now before you fly to your computer and press buy Maybank shares... perhaps you should do a 5 year study and see what kind of return one is looking at, yes?

brb... let me dig up chart.. and the divs history.... let's see what kind of profit we are looking at..... yes? brb... let's see how long it takes.... org posting was 10.26am...




The first chart, I have DISABLED all price adjustments. That is the chart shows the price as it is during a particular time a few years back. On the chart I have written some pricing. Those pricing should be roughly the low of the year. See in this exercise, I gave the benefit of a doubt that the super kampung bomoh dividend raja is able to spot out the best (lowest) price each year to invest in Maybank.

The second one is dividend paid out. Sreenshot taken from that other website. (I assume it should be accurate). Ok so far?

**** please verify numbers and calculations. I might fark up the numbers.... **

Current price used = today opening price of 7.62

EXERCISE NO. 1

Buy Maybank in 2015 at the lowest possible price and hold until now!

Purchase Aug 2015. Price RM8.10

Dividend received since = 0.54 + 0.52 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 2.82

Current price = 7.62.
Purchase price = 8.10

*Current holding loss = 0.48 (I despise the phrase paper loss. LOL!)

Total dividend received = 2.82
Total gain since buying = 2.82 - 0.48 = 2.34

CAGR gain for 5 years = 5.21%


*** CAGR for holding 5 years = 5.21% only. Where the meat?? Put money in EPF better isn't it? !! ***

==========================================================================

EXERCISE NO. 2

Purchase Oct 2016. Price 7.70

Dividend received since = 0.32 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 2.08

Current price = 7.62
Purchase price = 7.70

* Current holding loss = 0.08

Total dividend received = 2.08
Total gain since buying = 2.08 - 0.08 = 2.00

CAGR gain for 4 years = 5.94%


**** 5.94% only ...... where the meat? Again kalah to EPF!! ****


==========================================================================

EXERCISE NO. 3

Purchase Nov 2017. Price 9.20

Dividend received since = 0.32 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 1.53

Current price = 7.62
Purchase price = 9.20

Oh oh!!!!!

* Current holding loss = 7.62 - 9.20 = 1.58

Total dividend since buying = 1.53

Total LOSS since buying 2017 = 0.05

==========================================================================

EXERCISE NO.4

Purchase Oct 2019. Price 8.37

Dividend received since = 0.64

Current price = 7.62
Purchase price = 8.37

Current holding loss = 7.62 - 8.37 = 0.75

Total dividend since buying = 0.64

Losing money also.......



This post has been edited by Boon3: Jun 29 2020, 11:03 AM