Jaks coal fired power plant in Vietnam not promising?

Ow...festive season syndrome huh

Well what's your estimated earnings projections for the coal plant?

Probably
RM 400 million profit during the up coming 3 years construction periods.
and
a few hundred million RM a year for the next 25 years after the completion of the plants

Your figures clearly are way too overly optimistic.

There's such a four letter word called ...... risk.

Haha, maybe and maybe not.

I base on the following estimation to come out for the figures

1) RM 400 million over the construction period.
Base on about 5% profit margin of the awarded contract sum of about RM 8 billions

2) A few hundred millions a year
Assume 1 MW can earn RM 150. Say produce 12 hours a day for 30 days.
RM 150/MW x 1200 MW x 12 hours x 30 days x 12 months = RM 777.6 Millions a year.
Then put in a risk factor of 50%
RM 777.6 Millions a year x 50 % = RM 388.8 millions earning per year.
Even 70% risk factor also give a RM 200 millions earning per year.


Of course this is with an assumption of no big impact from other factors like change of law, political issues, wars and etc.

Like I said ...way too optimistic.

Never mind.

Keep this post in your 555 book.
Visit it in a couple years time and see what happened.

Got some time now.

Here's from a different perspective...

1. Just in case anyone not know, this JAKS power plant thing is not new.

News in 2010: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...-plant-project/

( I believe JAKS then was a penny stock. Around 70 sen or so.)


Clearly this is an Old cerita.


2. Things was never smooth for JAKS and its power plant. For example: http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1004604

JAKS at one time traded around 30 sen plus.



3. Now very important... how's JAKS track record as a company. let's skip the earlier years. Focus on the last three years.
Yes, look at the track record. Let's have a rough gauge of JAKS as a company. (you need to search the numbers yourself)
Do you like what you see?

If I minus all news and just based on the numbers alone... man, I just have to say that this looks like a pretty below average company.



... so here's how I draw up my perception of the company.... my way *maybe the borak way. *

I see a below average, venturing big time into Vietnam. Since 2010. And so far, nothing, absolutely nothing has come off it. So all these big earnings projections.... how do I have the faith that JAKS can deliver?

And JAKS used to be below 40 sen. Price today is now 1.50. (Won't you say that whatever good news for the stock HAS ALREADY been priced in? But the problem now is that JAKS has yet to deliver anything ! )

Tell me, if I am smart in managing my investment risk, how could I justify myself in risking my money in a stock like JAKS, which is trading at a 100x PE !?!


See my point?

Ya, I agree, JAKS FA memang look shitty for now.
They had struggled for a long period for the Vietnam deal.
If minus all the news and just look at the numbers alone, I see a good starting point there. Compare Q1 2016 and Q1 2017 the profit grow 7 times.
It looks like the rainy days has finally passed, sunny days will arrive soon.

Why I believe so?

Reason being (From what I see)

Rainy days has passed
1) They finally manage to get a JV partner for the Vietnam gigantic project. http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...il-power-plant/
2) Financial support wise they found the 3 China Banks. http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/jaks...nam-power-plant
3) 1 of their main loss is Liquidated damages which they kena impose due to late delivery of project. This shall not be a long term losses
4) The only concern which might be worried is how are they gonna cut lose on their Evolve Concept Mall. But the amount is relatively small if compare to the "Optimistic" profit forecast.

Arrival of sunny days
1) They start to diversify to power plant business and leave the construction industry which I think is hard to cari makan industry.
2) Electricity is something that everyone need to use and mostly it is a monopoly business. Good example of successful company is YTL.
3) If JAKS can get power plant project in Vietnam, they probably can get more similar project from other developing countries who are lack of electricity supply.

There is 1 big concern which need to be monitored is how well their JV partner, China Power Engineering Consulting Group Co Ltd can manage the power plant project at Vietnam. As long as they do not screw up, I think JAKS should have a bright future.

Dude... I wish you all the best.

Wish all of here all the best

Key takeaways from JAKS Resources AGM today:

Koon Yew Yin: the largest shareholder of Jaks Resources had repeatedly asked for board seats from the management via friendly manner. Apparently, Koon's request was not entertained. He also lashed out the management for recent placement share at RM1.35 without placing to him.

source not sure want

Source not sure one?



KYY ah? Lol !

That explains a lot .....

aiya..source come from telegram group lo..but source not verify yet..

if not wrong kyy and his wife become top 10 JAKS shareholder right

You do know I am 110% not a fansi of him

sure bo.....

Huh. Mudajaya. Xingquan....

Check my old postings on YOU and Xingquan.
Xingquan then was 1.60+...

malas la...holiday mode kick in

... malas but want to ask sure bo....
ppl like KYY etc etc.... stay away la (ie avoid by all means la) ...




I don't believe in following others....
that's what I always believe in....
which is why...
you will never see me in any groupie....

see... I also believe that...
if anyone wants to be in the stock market long term..... AND be good in the market...
best is to learn own self....
no follow tips, no follow sifu...

i follow trend je..hahaha..tips ar..tipu ada la