Lol

This from post #1584


Anyway back to point b. Sourcing from another country..

So a US company might move its supply chain from China to a country like Mexico...

Companies like GoPro or Hasboro, they shifted some of their supply chain to Mexico.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/05/business...decoupling.html

Then this happened....

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/surprise-me...nt-chances.html

Key word : How could you trust Duck...

Liz Ann Sonders, CIS Charles Swabb twitted...

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1134413617380675587





Some argued 'These tariffs are about stopping the re-branding of Chinese imports as being from Mexico'

Vietnam? What if ......

Hmmm... rather interesting.

Anyway, if anyone wants to post charts and do some TA, please feel free to do so.

🍻

You asked such a difficult question

If you had to choose only one, which one?

Lol.

You seem to have answered yourself...

But anyway.....pccs first.

In its notes...



China business had slowed down but was countered by better apparel result in Cambodia and labelling business from Malaysia. And then the disposal of assets helped the bottom line.

This doesn't sound like PCCS benefiting from the trade war at all since (1) the total revenue dropped a lot from business year, which indicates business not so good. If it had benefitted from the trade war theory, sales would have increased yes? (2) the bread and butter is the apparel business and the slowdown can be seen.

Given those 2... It doesn't sound like a good bet that pccs super good profits this fiscal would carry forward...

Low pe high nta.
This is badly preached.. so much risk involved if one simply assume and insist that its a holy grail.... Want an example? London Biscuits......

BTW that's my opinion la... don't simply trust me as I could easily be wrong.

This is a very risky theme to bet on la. Already say from long ago.....

Out now. I reply you later...

I just realised you are asking about Naim.

The following is what I can recall on my notes.

Naim, should always be considered as a holding company first and foremost and one should not forget its property development. As such valuation based on earnings tends to be unreliable. Furthermore, earnings from property sector tends to be lumpy....

.... and PCCS earnings came crashing down..

Naim owns a big stake in Dayang.

Perhaps you should do a study on holding companies....

The one chart that I do look at of gold is the weekly chart drawn against the USD.

The bullish ascending triangle break of 1400 happened near end June recently.

I would never use the MYR chart because the need to factor in the USDMYR factor.

One extra risk factor. One extra headache.

If one followed the usd$gold the entry would have been around 1400 or so.

However, you should be aware both the gold and the usd are pretty much 'controlled' items. (Duckie would probably use the manipul... word 🤣)

Regarding Mayban....



The strategy...

First. To have a target of 10... for me... it's right off the charts. Which means ur strategy is dictated by the chart...

If that was the case, the buy is supported by the fact the stock did have a support of around 8.50 recently. However how strong of a support is that? I for one, would be worried of the immediate down channel which is looking rather prominent.. Can u see that channel/trend?

If basing on this I would be asking if the risk/reward justifies the trade. Doesn't look like too much meat there....

** here is the chart **



**addum**

so if one buy at 8.50 with the target set at 10, the potential upside is 1.50 or about 17% ...
and the stop loss? 7%? 7.5%? 10%?
The gain is not that much , yes?

Yeah dividends can help... but then this is a time factor issue where if it was me, I would probably factor in other stuff...
for example, previously at 10, Mayban was trading with a trailing dps of 57 sen or a pretty generous 5.7% yield. Yet here we are, despite that generous 5.7% yield, the stock is now at 8.44 and the yield is 6.75% (higher yield due to the falling stock price). So definitely the dividend doesn't seem to help the 'investor' at all. Of course this could drag on forever, if one starts insisting by holding the stock on a longer time frame, such as more than one year... but then... this would have gone against the initial strategy of betting to win 1.50 from this mayban trade, yes?

The meat in the initial trade isn't really that fat in the first place. Now if I have to hold it longer, then my compounded returns would be down for this stock play....
and then what about the DRP factor if I were to hold it on a longer time frame? Would earnings dilutions be a factor (I have yet to look see into this...so... )

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stocks are priced to its future prospects... right now, the banking sector is not looking too good as global banks are cutting its rates. A lower Opr from Bank N would cause lower loan interest rates which means the risk is that Bank earnings would decline in the near future. Less earnings would means the possibly of lesser dividends. Adding to its problems, its already been reported that loan growths are already declining...

So.. atm.. I would not jump in.

Just sharing la... I could always be wrong by being too conservative....

And this ain't an attack.

Lol.

Me cannot make such trades.

Move is better lo. Else ppl complain lots, how?

Here is one extra thing to note... that 7.50 thingy..

Open your historical chart ..look at the 10 year chart... From 2013 the stock had a multi year correction...a slow multi year correction to your 7.50...

And guess what... during this period...dividends declined...

Like I say b4, dividends a good bonus but.. if and when dividends decline... the stock can have a huge decline...

So jaga lo

This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 6 2019, 06:18 PM

The last 2 paragraphs... This is where we defer.
I am like win big or don't bother....

just fyi .....

I did write on Maybank several times before. post #1878 That post highlighted the severe stock down trend back then. The classical decline in earnings and also the declining dividends.... the issues on Maybank before OCT 2016.

the chart posted then....



and then .... post #1911 ... where I did give a hint .... that the down trend has changed..... (also do read the comments Smurf made (my hint was given in a reply to him) (post was made on 11 Oct 2016 )

quote:



you can refer to this other chart ... see how the trend changed in Oct 2016?



Notice how the earnings improved in Nov. There was no longer the double digit declines in profits.
Then notice the huge turnaround, the huge improvement in earnings in Feb 2017..




So for me, I think it's not necessary to jump into the stock which is in a clear downtrend.... instead, perhaps it's better to kiv the stock, put it in the stock watchlist, and patiently wait for the change in stock trend.

Well here's a chart of a stock .....






well? Is a yes? or a no?