I would like to suggest something for you.

Try test out this theory first.

So you have those few suggested stocks.

1. Back test.
Look at the 6 months chart. Assuming one bought 6 months ago... how?

2. Paper test based on current prices. Yes, mark down the current prices you would buy these stocks. Wait 6 months then analyse the results.

How? Would this be a sound idea?

ps Blue chips can be steady but they can also fall one...

Hello. I would like to focus on another aspect of your post which is rather interesting, imo...

So the general idea is that if there is a big hand in the stock, then there should be good support for the stock, yes? It's like a no brainer statement but how exactly true is this statement? For me, whenever I read about any idea, I usually check it out myself. Let's have a simple test on that idea. Wouldn't that be logical?

So for my test, I would ASSUME I bought the stock about a year ago and then compared it versus the current price.

Would that be a fair test parameter?

Well I then randomly took 2 of the stocks you mentioned.

1. Maybank, well that's the biggest in the country. So support should be there, yes?

Here's the one year chart.



So assuming one bought at 10.00 a year ago, compare it with current prices now.

2. Next Tenaga. Biggest utility in the country.

Again, the one year chart.



Now assuming one purchased Tenaga at 15.00 a year ago, compare it with current prices now...


How?

I randomly took 2 stocks and back tested it based on a year chart and the chart showed that we cannot simply buy at any price based on the assumption that big funds like EPF will support the stock...

And it also clearly showed one should not buy stocks based on fearing our money will shrink due to inflation. A bad stock choice could result in losses more than what we fear our money would shrink due to inflation...

What say you?




*ps this post is not to say I am right or what not but to share what I will do when I read about ideas about the market*

This post has been edited by Boon3: Apr 26 2019, 09:05 AM

Sorry do not agree. I paper traded for many years and till today, I still find no shortcut. You want it, you got to earn it.

Market conditions just simply varies. So many different types. Their frequency and periods varies too. For example, there are pro longed bear markets, pro longed bull markets, a drifting market, market crashes, super bull runs. They all occur in different periods of time. Some takes years and years to happen.

Now if one trades the market long enough, they should very well be aware that one cannot adopt one or two market strategy all the time. That is, if one is specialists in breakout trading, they probably would have realize that in bearish market conditions, such strategy is more error prone. To just use it bluntly all the time would increase the frequency of trading losses. Now this is something one would probably pick up, if one had traded a long, long time.

6 months? You ain't gonna learn anything much......

This post has been edited by Boon3: Apr 29 2019, 11:57 AM

What do paper trading critics say...

1. Trade paper not same. Trade real market different feel.

2. You wanna learn, you need to pay school fees (market losses from doing point 1)

Well, look around. You should be able to see.....

Don't worry! You can voice out your views.

That you cannot understand my first posting shows that you are not experienced enough in the market. There's no way one can learn within a period like 6 months, for varying market conditions does not exist in such a short period of time. Plus could you ever really discover what you are good at and what you are lousy at in such a short period of time.

But hey, if you think you are good enough to take on the market with just a short learning period go ahead. By all means.

My second post is a sarcasm. Yup.

Paper trading or fake trading. The very unpopular subject in the stock markets and forums. LOL! Oh yeah, let me be the sarcastic bugger and mention it once more.

1. Trade paper not same. Trade real market different feel.

2. You wanna learn, you need to pay school fees man!!!

But then....

Since I am or rather I was extremely serious about stock trading and I wasn't prepared to be the silly pumpkin and lose tons of money (only to be consoled by them others who claims that's just school fees or tuition fees). I decided to find out if I was GOOD ENOUGH to trade the markets and more importantly I needed to find out what I am good at and what I will be lousy at. Learn it properly and without being the silly pumpkin or the stock market water fish. I wasn't going to mati katak just because I wanted to embark on this stock market journey.

And I realize then, this will be a long drawn process of learning. I was WILLING to paper trade for years. I looked at it objectively and considered other professions like Doctors or Lawyers. How many years did they burn the midnight oil and doing nothing but studying? And after that, the years of practice....

So what gives me the divine right that I could ever be a market whiz in a mere couple of months?

Hence I was ever willing to paper trade for years.

take for example, trading with using charts and indicators.

Ah, chart indicators. You have the ABC soup. RSI, MACD, MA, SMA, Stochastic, Fib etc etc etc....

Take the simple RSI indicator. Now the beginner would explore by noting market entries and exits using the buy/sell indicators generated by the indicator. Could I make this work. Hence, the paper trade to test it (of course, I would have had run back testing) . How long would I need? 1 month? 2 months of testing? What's my success rate? Mine was around a 52% success rate. Was I willing to embark on an adventure to trade full time with such success rate? I wasn't. It was like a flip of coin. Sometimes can. Sometimes cannot. Then I moved on by adjusting the period. I thought 14 days was too slow. Then I changed it to 10 days and even 8 days. (do google if this issue is confusing) And next I moved on by incorporating other indicators with the RSI. Indicators such as MACD, Stochastic and the SMAs. Slighty better but I wasn't comfortable with the success rate I had.....

And this took time. Lots of time. I had to make research and I had to make my own testing....

Even then, sometimes I questioned myself. Maybe I was just not good enough....

This learning process was long and it took years. At least for me.

More or less what was discussed much earlier in this thread..

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/who-...s-and-companies

.... and you are basically still asking about the same old stocks like Hevea, Homer..... after all these years....

Gotta say this... man, either are you stuck badly in these stocks or what?

It's not much of a problem for the rather slow reply and yes, if you have work, you have work.

Now this is where and what it's important. You have to take this issue seriously into your consideration, when you make your trade/investments. (ie. talking about work and the stock market)

I highlighted the charts just to show you that it's RISKY to assume that one should be ok if we follow them big institutions. The charts merely highlighted the fact.

And oh yes, you absolutely have the other interesting point. Looking at the 5 year charts, both stocks are still doing well (Tenaga done much better).
Now if I am one who wants to adopt on this 5 year theory, obviously I would find it tricky since the tricky part is how would we know if we buy now the stocks would perform as well as it had for its previous last 5 years? Would I dare risk my money based on this assumption?

'However, this is not a trading ideas yea.' - Do not worry. During my learning process, I questioned all sorts of theory put forward to me. That's just me and basically, I want to risk the least money, while attempting to make the big bucks. That's my philosophy. I detest people making bets in the stock market while attempting to make their 'kopi' money. It's like, don't they have any respect for money? Perhaps they are rich. Can afford to throw big, big money attempting to make the measly few bucks. It just doesn't make sense.

'While you are waiting for your perfect stock to trade' -- There are no such thing as the perfect stock. I am not delusional. All stocks, carries risk. This is the stock market. There's always risk.

Your hedging suggestion - LOL! No way.

The one bigger reason to paper trade a long time - well for me, it held true - is that it gives us the time to discover who were are. Discovering our capabilities and our weakness. Can I be an investor? Do I have all the tools to make it? Or perhaps, can I be a trader? What kind of trader am I? I am good at scalping? Am I good at swinging? etc etc etc etc.....yes, besides learning how to, I need to discover myself. How can I win the stock market war, if I do not understand what kind of a warrior I am?

Yes, people always insist that nothing beats real trading. Of course..... and that's until they lose some real money too.

Anyway, this topic is really like hound dog day for me. I have had always promoted fake trading for years. And yet here I am.

And those that argued and insisted on diving in for the real trading stuff (ie no pain, no gain) guess what? Where are they now?

This post has been edited by Boon3: May 14 2019, 10:31 AM

Don't use metastock anymore. Nowadays I just use the charting software provided with the trading platform provided by the local brokerage.

Hahaha... yes, those self created SECRET formulas.... been there done that.
Done so much testing, just couldn't get the results I wanted. Realised that such trading just wasn't for me.
All my screeners were just so dependent on charts itself, I just coudn't get comfortable with it.
So I stopped using almost a loooong time ago.

GL

I believe there is a misunderstanding. It was more because of me. Such trading wasn't for me and I wasn't saying it doesn't work.

I am one who believes we play the market to the best of our own capabilities. It's like, if I can't trade the shorter time frames, well it's best I acknowledge this fact and not die trying...

Tidur ah?


ps: still looking for my second trade.....

Inari.

That's the 4th consecutive quarter of shitty earnings. Price to earnings still high...

Big lesson isn't it? Don't ever fall in love with past big buggers. What used to be good, well the big key words are USED TO BE. The growth story is long gone... so should the stock still deserve such high valuations?

Wise up yo!

Regarding pe>15. I agree with your point. The market even accepts it. But do remember the situation is slightly different. We are talking about a stock whose earnings and revenue is DECLINING rapidly.

For example, at its peak, just last fiscal year, or 5 quarters ago. Inari had quarterly sales revenue of 370 million. Sales revenue for current reported quarter is just 256 million. Profits then was 68 million. Profits now has slumped to just 38 million. Clearly the growth story is long gone, right?

Now, for me, I would not lump the current earnings and try to find a fair value for it. Why? Because the earnings are declining rapidly. And if the earnings decline again the next quarter, what is cheap now, would be deemed expensive. As they say the markets priced the stock based on future expectations. It's simply too risky to buy when we do not know how bad its earnings can get. What if profits drop to below 30 million per quarter?

I am one who do not like to take unnecessary market risk. I like to risk little but win a lot (if don't have such scenarios, I would wait - yeah, stock market is a waiting game for me).. So until I see some reversal in earnings, I would rather avoid this stock.

Oh yeah. Just sharing my thoughts on it. Me and you are probably different market players....

Anyway... GL and thanks for your views. Peace.

Fakeouts happens a lot and this is why one usually fails when one uses breakouts in their trading setup. The internet is best source of info, Search trading breakouts and fakeouts.

Do the fake trading.... spend 6 months on it. Test it out a lotttt...
If you cannot master it, dump it......

Yeah most earnings are not improving....

LOL. Don't like to play liddis la.
I rather not buy and sit and shake kaki

That bugger like dog bite bone and no let go......