Hence the recovery play strategy have to wait for 1 year +

Almost 2 years laaa.... hehe

This was our chart then....



and this is the IGBR now...



yeah.... price recovered...

so I guess untung is the dividends received.... (hey it works )

Don't ever do that again la....

Don't destroy/hide/remove research report links.....

Bad boy!

So I was reading the report on Harta. Was surprised to read 'TP downgraded from 2.90 to 2.80'.... I was like 'wait a min...

Cause I remembered.... in Feb, Harta was still having a crazied TP of 7 (Harta was trading at 5+) then...

then in May... the big tax caused Harta to lose money... Harta was 4++... TP was still crazy high despite a HUGE cut From 7.00 to 5.60.

was searching for that May report.... somehow.... not there.



see no May...

this was the screenshot (I saved...hehe)




anyway.... so in May it was 5.60....

where the other report to show the BIGGEST CUT? from 5.60 to 2.90? Found it in their Sector Update... lol



big cut... only mentioned in their Sector Update.... LOL! How snakey.



this is like 'u snooze u lose' ..... LOL!

Feb it was 7. May it was 5.60.. June it was 2.90... now Aug it's 2.80.

Hahahahahahahahahaha

latest one....



...... it's like why don't they just potong the TP to 1.50.

one time kowtim la.....

This post has been edited by Boon3: Aug 11 2022, 01:36 PM

pkchoo@kenanga.com.my

Send a note asking for an IG friend request? Or maybe Tiktok?

TOK his head! Ask him whether TP is RM5.60 or RM1.50??????

LOL!!! His latest is 2.80. Mine is 1.50.

And make a claim against his TP of RM5.60 now.

statikinetic

wakeup! something interesting for u.....






That's the boss buying of shares... since Dec 2000

Circle marks the spot on the chart below.....



Barring any mistakes from me... that's about 105,417,700 shares bought. (some ESOS were exercised. I left those out)
Total cost spend on buying shares 360,831,950.33
Average cost ~ 3.422

Marked to market value as this morning opening price of 0.835, these shares are only worth 88,023,779.50

only some 272,808.170.83 went to share heaven.....



Learning from other people's mistakes is the way, yes?


1. Such buying does not work. That is AVERAGE DOWN or the fancy pansy name such as DCA or TOP UP or COLLECTION does not work!

2. Even the big boss can make mistake. So if big boss buy, it doesn't mean one should die die follow...... (in this case, unfortunately, the follower followed die, die....)

I actually saw the buys in my market feed and felt like it was more to try create some tailwinds to arrest the price slide. May have helped in the short term.

But Harta is the intriguing case for me so I just noted the Top Glove news and moved on. I'm looking at how far Harta is going to slide.

Folks always get overly excited seeing insiders buy... but when they sell... they tend to find reason to justify the boss selling. (Example Musk and Tesla)

But do they see the bigger picture? 270 million ringgit.... gone....


Harta? LOL! The best manage stock, the best profitable stock etc etc in a sunset industry is still a sunset stock. That's my firm believe. Hence, it always amuse and tickle me to death when I see them research analyst giving 30x Pe on a company whose growth is rapidly declining is utterly bullocks. Yeah, I stand by how I rate it... 1.50.

Earnings now is so bad. A quarterly profit below 90 million brings it right back, back to the dark years...I can't even remember when it earned so little.

The downtrend was still very clear.

my July post on the previous page...



the current COLLAPSE in share price...




it's not surprising for me... the 10th Aug was the huge get the hell out when it slid on huge volume... more so with EPF disposing aggressively.

Yup.... shit results + insider dumping = recipe for doom!!





Even after all these selling has subsided, the 'buyer'/punter has gotta ask ...'What's next?'....

in which I dun see anything changing for the better.... ASP still falling, SUPPLY is still in abundance, and DEMAND isn't picking up..... the same old, same old story during its sunset years......

The previous time revenue posted such numbers were back in 2017, so that's where I started for my valuation exercise. The balance sheet looks pretty intact for a company whose shares is tanking this hard. Based on the fundamentals, it looks like some event is impacting its future revenue runway, more so than other companies.

Valuation wise, we are close. I've been thinking, and realize that thinking is where trouble starts for me.

I missed it completely when price crash started and only saw it a day or two late. What was the piece of news that started the fall?

Harta closed at 2.80 the day it released its quarterlies on the 9th. (lunch time release iinm)

the next day, the 10th, the stock collapsed on heavy volume to 2.45....


the problem, I strongly felt was that community gave Harta an utterly undeserved 30x pe (and based on crappy CY forecasts too ).

Earnings estimates were on the higher side, the earnings multiple was crazy high...
with the whole industry/sector facing massive decline in earnings...
Harta was simply way over valued at around 2.80-3.00

Coupled with a measly qr eps of around 2.5 sen.... just based on simple fundamental valuations, the stock should have crashed long ago.


now the EPF dumped...
who is gonna be the strong hand holding this stock?

what's the catalyst for the stock to move higher?


yeah... some would quick hand say...'over sold'.... but you and I know that should price recovery never really last when it happens...

A 30x PE is indeed nuts. Unless Harta had pivoted to become a Tech company instead.

Being oversold is a convenient excuse to jump in to buy, but that is all sentiment. Like you said, there is no catalyst on the horizon. Gloves as a whole seems flat. Not sure about Harta's other revenue lines or products they have that can reinforce the bottom line. That's probably homework for this weekend.

Harta is not in my watch list so I don't have any notes against it for now. Focus on the "dark ages" from 2013 - 2017 and how they did would be the lens of which I view their current fall.

In their latest... folks like kenanga did readjust... from 30x to 25x ...

25x is also crazy for the industry.
Like already decided want to put a certain sticker price on it but no justification, so end up pulling the PE as the only way.

Boon3, looks like Harta bounced already.

I saw.

I might be a trader but I such trades ain't to my liking