LOL. You guys with the damn coconuts.

Range bound trading, although works like a charm, it's actually very limiting. But then I am spoilt. I only like to whack brigand eat big. Lol.

The REITS... not surprising. Check the dividends. They are declining rapidly.

Sunreit, igbreit, KLCC all hit badly...
smurfs how?

A fansi!!! 
Yeah... I posted that since Sep.

A possible buy price was at around 14 .... 

Posted the chart on Sat.... post#3434


Current live chart... ya... it broke out


the triangle drawn in Sep is still there....

ya... got other stocks in Bursa besides gloves....   

yesterday was a good day to add position ...... 

Here is my end of the bargain. I've finished my prelimenary research which covers the past couple of annual reports, financial statements for trailing 8 years, news portals and that 1 hour vid from CGS CIMB with Alvin which was more interesting than I had expected. Here is my basic checklist.

Fundamentals
Year on year revenue increase is clear. Balance sheet is solid, though not flawless.
I like that the Cash From Op is rising to layer the bottom line. Though the free cash flow is considered high right now, I have concerns on the historical dips. Business expansion would likely be the cause here so I'll give it a pass. Higher profit margins we see are good, but keep in mind some part of it seems driven from lower material costs so I don't think it is sustainable.
Balance sheet wise, the debt to equity ratio is acceptable. Debt is 95% covered by the operating cash flow which is good.
The company also earns more interest than it pays so interest coverage gets a pass.
Overall debt has been growing which I dislike. Considering the expansion, I will pass this for now but I really hope it goes down post.

Growth Potential
I think for the industry, the word should be slow and steady growth.
The company has demonstrated good growth in the past and there are plans to continue with the strategic expansion plan which is already in execution phase. I like this as compared to one still residing on a powerpoint deck. One question mark I have are how new sales are being sourced.

Management
I gauge this by measuring how management has run the business on a day to day basis as well as strategic plans.
Overall goal to double revenue from a couple of years back is still on track. The expansion for the local facility and Myanmar gives them space to grow and scale. This expansion is somewhat delayed because of the MCO and I think they are still struggling to fly specialists in to work on it. Definitely a pass here for overall management. From the plan and past results, looks to be a group of people I'd give money to.

Alternatives
Tguan has a higher annual growth rate to some of it's peers like SLP and BPLAS.
BPLAS looks undervalued too with good fundamentals but probably suffers from the small market cap. Even with a good QR, the share price barely budged. They are sitting on lots of cash though. Anyhow, when in doubt for capital appreciation, go for the bigger players.

Industry Concerns
If this industry experiences a boom, ESG considerations might start to weigh in. Especially the 'E' part. Plastic gets a bad red. For now, not an area of concern.
I think the price is about fair and usually I would buy in with a small entry position to start with as part of an entry strategy.
However, there is an additional listing of 185k shares as an ESOS exercise announced today. I think the price might trace south tomorrow in response.

I'm onboard, most likely to pull the trigger sometime tomorrow.

Yeah the yield is about that..

Another way to comprehend the 4.4% yield is "double of 12month FD's interest rate !"
Generally for REIT price to go up :

1. DPU increase
By means of acquiring more property. More property, more rental income. More rental income, more distribution to shareholders. AXREIT in the past has been doing quite well in terms of improving their earning and portfolio size. Even better is not doing any right issue (IIRC), but still manage to raise fund for new property acquisition via private placement.

2. Rental Revision

3. Macro economics factors :
    a. Bond yield drop
    b. Interest rate going down

Reit yield should be always around 200~300 basis point above FD rate offering, to justify the risk taken. But with current global low yield environment, some are ok with REIT yield about 100-150 basis point above FD rate.

But again, if portfolio size is tiny, individual investor usually didnt see much "meat" for the few % different in yields.

below 10 before the year end?

It's not gonna end well.....

.... a serious question ....   

Good for you. 
I cannot do trades with such low profits margins.

Based on my paper trades, in the long run, such trading yielded a below par results for me.
Perhaps it's me. I am not good enough making such trades.
Hence, I avoid such trades.
But hey, if you can achieve such results consistently in the long run, well......

prophetjul

the math behind it also explains why I avoid such trading in the long run....

Each trade valued at 10k. Each win equals 700.
Out of 100 trades, if I win half of them, ie 50 win trades. All at 7%.
50 trades each win 7%.
Total wins = 35k.

Out of 50 losses.
If manage to cap 25 losses capped at 5%. ie 500 loss per trade.
Total losses = 12.5k.

Cap 15 losses at 10%. ie 1k loss per trade.
Total losses = 15k

And unfortunately 10 losses at 15%. ie 1.5k per trade
Total losses = 15k

.... so out of 100 ... i will end up losing money. cos total losses = 42.5k vs total profit of 35k.
Capping the losses.... ok, if can better it, eliminate those 15% losses....

Out of 50 losses, 25 losses capped at 5%. Total losses = 12.5k.
25 losses capped at 10%. Total losses = 25k.

total losses = 37.5k....
** Getting a win rate of more than 50% is not easy....
** Capping losses. Not easy. We can say up front, we want 5% cut loss or 6% cut loss but it's not easy to execute... there will always exist slippage (ie that 5% easily becomes 10%), it happens.
but that's me...
I tried....
based on my paper trade records, I can NOT survive on such trading.

I believe trading doesn't need to be wild punting.

Not unexpected. Not getting excited?

SGT Reits ah?