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Taikor.Taikun
post Sep 21 2020, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(babygrand123 @ Sep 21 2020, 10:18 AM)
TG still worth to hold ?
*
Its factories r all on full swing to meet impossible demands. Raw mat prices dropped. And they r on course to become Fortune 500 companies by 2035, 5 years earlier than initial target.

U judge

This post has been edited by Taikor.Taikun: Sep 21 2020, 11:11 AM
iwubpreve
post Sep 21 2020, 09:48 PM

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today share buyback. hmm.gif another 99m plus
hybr1d3d
post Sep 21 2020, 10:46 PM

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dear guys, sorry to ask, anyone know how to use ectrade technical indicator to show institutional bias? (see the ratio of local / foreign institution and retailer)
mitodna
post Sep 22 2020, 11:55 PM

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How much macq set to pay if TG still RM8 at least for C67 last day 14 October? Strike price rm5 laugh.gif

I don't understand call warrant at all

This post has been edited by mitodna: Sep 22 2020, 11:56 PM
iwubpreve
post Sep 23 2020, 08:43 AM

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QUOTE(mitodna @ Sep 22 2020, 11:55 PM)
How much macq set to pay if TG still RM8 at least for C67 last day 14 October? Strike price rm5 laugh.gif

I don't understand call warrant at all
*
they surely hedge this fund also when it rise
TSBoon3
post Sep 23 2020, 09:12 AM

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QUOTE(mitodna @ Sep 22 2020, 11:55 PM)
How much macq set to pay if TG still RM8 at least for C67 last day 14 October? Strike price rm5 laugh.gif

I don't understand call warrant at all
*
1. M is one of the big call warrants issuer in Malaysia.

In 2018, it issued 1,000 structures. That's how big they are as a banker.

source: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...nts-in-malaysia

2. Think of it as simple as what you are saying... so they lose 'big' ..... but how many other time have you heard M losing?

Think percentage wise.... think of 2018 numbers (i can't search the 2019 or 2020 numbers) if lose say 10 lah.... 10 out 1000 .... u think M gonna cry or close shop because of one loss?

3. Issuers hedge their bet.... for example....

https://www.malaysiawarrants.com.my/education/faq

No, warrants are not a ‘zero sum game’. The aim of the issuer is to make a profit on the risk management of the warrants sold, in doing so they also take on risk. When issuers sell warrants, they will normally buy shares or other derivatives to ‘hedge’ their positions and attempt to capture a margin whether the share price goes up or down.

For example, when an issuer sells a call warrant they will usually go into the underlying market and buy the shares to hedge themselves. Thus, if the share price increases, and investors profit on their call warrants, the issuer will also gain on their shareholding.

It is a common misunderstanding that issuers want investors to lose money. In fact, it is quite the opposite. If investors lose money, they will likely not trade warrants again, whereas if they profit from trading warrants they are more likely to continue trading and the market will grow.

4. Have you seen the past 30 days prices and TRANSACTIONS DONE for the stock...
here...

user posted image

How to lose big money when the warrant is hardly traded?


5. LOL! Yes! M is in the focus because it was the first to downgrade TopGlove currently. But as shown clearly, other banks had the same set of data which shows contraction in profits come 2020... so why blame M for the sharp correction earlier on? I could give many other logical reasons why the correction happen.... so need to do the blame game?

Seriously.... we cannot be so narrow minded la.... the stock was due for that correction and if you want to be a great trader, you should not lose focus .


6. I saw the CS writeup... it gave the same set of warning... post later...



This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 23 2020, 09:15 AM
TSBoon3
post Sep 23 2020, 09:34 AM

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user posted image

The arrows..... Credit Suisse is basically saying the same exact thing as many others.... which is fy22 profits is estimated to show a huge decline.... here CS is suggesting a 55% plunge.

All saying the same thing.

M had the balls to call out the SELL.

UBS has since followed suit......

so again from this perspective, I find it so narrow minded to connect M to its structured warrants and then blame M for the fall.

Totally childish... which is extremely typical of i3.

If you wanna be a better trader, stay away from that forum. You will only end up losing focus.




BTW .... in June .... when Credit Suisse gave the ultra high (June standard lo) of rm23, TG was below 15.... every 1 loved that article. Stock soon burst out to new highs.... but do you know that in that very same report, Credit Suisse had already forewarned the risk of fy22 earnings to be drastically lower. The risk was there since June. Nobody cared. They only forecast on the high TP prices. Now? Got problem... all started blaming this and that....
TSBoon3
post Sep 23 2020, 09:39 AM

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QUOTE(mitodna @ Sep 22 2020, 11:55 PM)
How much macq set to pay if TG still RM8 at least for C67 last day 14 October? Strike price rm5 laugh.gif

I don't understand call warrant at all
*
btw... in a call warrant....

the issuer loses money only if the call warrant is 'in the money'....

the player? loses everything (ie whatever price he/she pays for the structured warrant) ...

see how lopsided the game is?

and the issuer always have ways to hedge its bets....


I seriously doubt they will rely on a downgrade to profit.

icon_rolleyes.gif


TSBoon3
post Sep 23 2020, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(babygrand123 @ Sep 21 2020, 10:18 AM)
TG still worth to hold ?
*
user posted image

Look at what the chart is saying.... all prices are adjusted for the bonus issue in Sep

1. The stock is trading below it's uptrend or shall I say the uptrend was broken a while back and the stock is still trading below the trend line? (both same meaning .. lol)

2. The clear sign to sell the stock WAS there.

3. We are where we are NOW.....

reverse question... if you never had any position b4 in the stock, would you buy now?

4. The stock is trying to consolidate at around 8.

would the bear or the bull win?
of course with the company desperately dumping millions and millions defending the share price, there is argument that the share should hold at 8.....

5. Volume. Volume. Volume.... is this the biggest issue?

the blue bell in the bottom in Sep indicates the bonus issue.
TG is now 3 times bigger. If one wants to put that 3 times bigger into perspective, ie compare the volume now versus pre bonus issue volume....
one need to divide by 3....
which means.... after the bonus issue.... the volume has shrunk considerably.....

which begs the question....
With so many scientists still insisting on focusing only on fy21 numbers and still giving TG a buy call recommendation, why is the volume so dismal?
TG 1.3 billion in net profit woh.... why no big funds buying?

And remember during this period, TG bought back some 300 million worth of shares....
so where are the other buyers? why aren't the big buyers buying?
where? If the stock is worth 10 or more, why does the stock chart showing the NOT LAKU sign?


which leads back to the question on the buybacks.....
if the company stops buybacks.... how?

I have said this before....

Quote: When you do share buybacks, you do not want anything like share disposal or even ESOS to be happening the same time....

Reason rather obvious ya....


Now I have pointed out the LARGE ESOS happening during this period the other day...

And yesterday posting.... had a pungent smell... one of the ED, Lim Cheng Guan, disposed 380,000 shares! see announcement dated yesterday!






So is it worth to HOLD? I have no idea..... icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 23 2020, 11:11 AM
babygrand123
post Sep 23 2020, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 23 2020, 11:09 AM)
user posted image

Look at what the chart is saying.... all prices are adjusted for the bonus issue in Sep

1. The stock is trading below it's uptrend or shall I say the uptrend was broken a while back and the stock is still trading below the trend line? (both same meaning .. lol)

2. The clear sign to sell the stock WAS there.

3. We are where we are NOW.....

reverse question... if you never had any position b4 in the stock, would you buy now?

4. The stock is trying to consolidate at around 8.

would the bear or the bull win?
of course with the company desperately dumping millions and millions defending the share price, there is argument that the share should hold at 8.....

5. Volume. Volume. Volume.... is this the biggest issue?

the blue bell in the bottom in Sep indicates the bonus issue.
TG is now 3 times bigger. If one wants to put that 3 times bigger into perspective, ie compare the volume now versus pre bonus issue volume....
one need to divide by 3....
which means.... after the bonus issue.... the volume has shrunk considerably.....

which begs the question....
With so many scientists still insisting on focusing only on fy21 numbers and still giving TG a buy call recommendation, why is the volume so dismal?
TG 1.3 billion in net profit woh.... why no big funds buying?

And remember during this period, TG bought back some 300 million worth of shares....
so where are the other buyers? why aren't the big buyers buying?
where? If the stock is worth 10 or more, why does the stock chart showing the NOT LAKU sign?
which leads back to the question on the buybacks.....
if the company stops buybacks.... how?

I have said this before....

Quote: When you do share buybacks, you do not want anything like share disposal or even ESOS to be happening the same time....

Reason rather obvious ya....


Now I have pointed out the LARGE ESOS happening during this period the other day...

And yesterday posting.... had a pungent smell... one of the ED, Lim Cheng Guan, disposed 380,000 shares! see announcement dated yesterday!
So is it worth to HOLD? I have no idea..... icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Bro appreciated your deep technical review but i have a question to you

1) Do you trade based on the chart or tools available in this market ?
2) Please share the accuracy in percentage
3) Chart or tools only for reference right ? I noticed many persons around me also make use the tools and talk like God trader to foreseen future market!!!

why i asking these question because i never use any tool yet for this moment since 2001

TSBoon3
post Sep 23 2020, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(babygrand123 @ Sep 23 2020, 11:28 AM)
Bro appreciated your deep technical review but i have a question to you

1) Do you trade based on the chart or tools available in this market ?
2) Please share the accuracy in percentage
3) Chart or tools only for reference right ? I noticed many persons around me also make use the tools and talk like God trader to foreseen future market!!!

why i asking these question because i never use any tool yet for this moment since 2001
*
There are so many different type of traders around. Some based their trades solely on what the chart say. Some uses a combo of fundamentals+charting. Some speculates based on new events etc etc...

1. Me? My style? That should never be the issue. The issue should be you. You should trade/invest based on what you are good at.

Yes, what's important is always you.

2. The accuracy level is not important. Read up about Expectancy.

3. Yup. Many talk god like... it's always the case. But again, that's not important. What's important is you and your trade. Know what kind of setup you are good at and more important, know what you are NOT good at. And of course, managing the RISK is so important.

icon_rolleyes.gif
mitodna
post Sep 23 2020, 03:49 PM

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tomorrow topglov issue ESOS, is it immediate? continue SBB as business as usual?

Boon3 appreciate your analysis and now I have clarity that warrants issuer is the banker (casino), you can never win the bank

This post has been edited by mitodna: Sep 23 2020, 03:50 PM
TSBoon3
post Sep 23 2020, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(mitodna @ Sep 23 2020, 03:49 PM)
tomorrow topglov issue ESOS, is it immediate? continue SBB as business as usual?

Boon3 appreciate your analysis and now I have clarity that warrants issuer is the banker (casino), you can never win the bank
*
I was just sharing my opinions. Feel free to point out if I am wrong. Anyway, in a lucrative business, where you get to be the banker (like MacQuarie), they really have no reason to manipulate the stock lower by issuing baseless sell calls. I doubt if they are so reckless and silly when they are the main issuer in our local market. Why jeopardize that position?

This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 24 2020, 09:02 AM
hybr1d3d
post Sep 24 2020, 01:23 AM

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Brother Boon3, even EPF is buying TG share now, what's your view about this?
TSBoon3
post Sep 24 2020, 08:55 AM

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QUOTE(hybr1d3d @ Sep 24 2020, 01:23 AM)
Brother Boon3, even EPF is buying TG share now, what's your view about this?
*
What I strongly believes in was posted several times before. For example on May 28 see post #2184

QUOTE
In theory, share buybacks are good but then... stock market is full of sharks... as it is a known fact that these sharks abuse buybacks for their own benefits. Hence, it is a risky guide/indicator.

Same as trying to use epf purchases/disposals as an indicator.

Best you develop your own person setups.
That is where I stand...

But anyway... for this EPF and TG .... I am so disappointed to read EPF buying up shares in TG.

This is a huge NO NO!

It's a situation created because the boss sits on EPF board, which means the conflict of interest issue arises! (this was mentioned casually b4 see post #3024 )

Everything is searchable in the net... really. tongue.gif

Search the phrase 'epf board conflict of interest'

https://newmalaysiatimes.com/2018/12/04/naj...ct-of-interest/

This part... The MSWG released a Message From CEO in the Weekly Newsletter dated November 16, 2018 ( http://www.mswg.org.my/newsletters/mswg-we...er-2018-english )

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


* and of course ... TG related https://newmalaysiatimes.com/2018/11/13/rm8...intees-company/ ***

It is a conflict of interest when directors of Public Listed Companies (PLCs) sit on boards (or committees) of institutional investors, who in turn have shareholdings in the said PLC, from which that director comes from.

That's the issue..... this is simply unacceptable in the investment community, where the conflict of interest is such a huge no-no...


And then the timing of the acquisition ....

Again I am stressing the point... when a listed company do buyback, they need to be absolutely sure nothing coincides with the buybacks....
And here we have TG doing huge buybacks...
and then the conflicts.... large ESOS stake are granted listing during this time, huge chunks of TG convertible bonds are converted into ordinary shares during this period... both which carries a significant low cost, which means ESOS shares or the bond shares could be sold for a nice chunk of profit .... and then you have one of the Executive Director selling 350,000 shares (which is not a lot but the value is more than the 2 million!) ... and now ... coincides with EPF buying TG shares???
and remember the buyback on the 11th Sep, which clearly drove the stock so much higher....

so much conflict...... how la?

IF ..... someone stands up.... and accuses TG of blatantly propping up the shares ..... do you think the accusation is valid?


Here is TG chart once more... I added the red arrow to indicate 18th Sep... the day EPF bought 13,695,800 shares, which pushes EPF stake to be above the 5% threshold (thus forcing EPF to make the announcement)

user posted image

Now this brings back the question of Volume posted yesterday....

QUOTE
5. Volume. Volume. Volume.... is this the biggest issue?

the blue bell in the bottom in Sep indicates the bonus issue.
TG is now 3 times bigger. If one wants to put that 3 times bigger into perspective, ie compare the volume now versus pre bonus issue volume....
one need to divide by 3....
which means.... after the bonus issue.... the volume has shrunk considerably.....

which begs the question....
With so many scientists still insisting on focusing only on fy21 numbers and still giving TG a buy call recommendation, why is the volume so dismal?
TG 1.3 billion in net profit woh.... why no big funds buying?

And remember during this period, TG bought back some 300 million worth of shares....
so where are the other buyers? why aren't the big buyers buying?
where? If the stock is worth 10 or more, why does the stock chart showing the NOT LAKU sign?
which leads back to the question on the buybacks.....
if the company stops buybacks.... how?


So if you add in this new info ... that EPF bought 13,695,800 more shares in TG ..... the question becomes much louder.... why is the volume so dismal?

rolleyes.gif

EPF sapu-ed.....
TG ownself sapu-ed ....

Scientists all still give high TP....

yet.... volume is low in comparison.... and the the stock seems stuck at 8? why cannot go higher?

TSBoon3
post Sep 25 2020, 09:23 AM

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Note to ownself.... buybacks + ESOS + ED disposal of shares...

Some of the recent ESOS exercised was highlighted post #3122
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


as can be seen the big ones, the ESOS issued at an extremely cheap prices.... below 1.70.....


So following days showed one of the Eexcutive Director, Lim Cheng Guan, disposed 380,000 shares!

and yesterday, it was announced the very same ED, Lim Cheng Guan, exercised some 300,000 shares (no price was disclosed but you can bet the exercise price was extremely cheap!)

Ahem!!!

That was some fast profit by disposing the shares and then exercise back some very cheaply priced ESOS!!



See.... that's fine. Fine by all means. Everyone does it in the corporate world. They get rewarded with cheap ESOS as a reward for the years of hardwork...

but ..... when this is done when the company is actively doing buybacks.... it gets muddied very fast and all sort of accusations will be made....

see why I had said when the company does massive buybacks, it's gotta to be dead certain that none of these shit is going on!

and yeah... huge chunk of convertible bonds were converted to shares during this period too (check the conversion price? tongue.gif ... so nice the buyback had pushed the stock price so high! ).... shakehead.gif



But.... like they say.... the rising share price means all these matters not!

LOL! Share price going up... see nothing, know nothing, do nothing. laugh.gif laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 25 2020, 09:24 AM
TSBoon3
post Sep 25 2020, 09:28 AM

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This is Comfort chart...

user posted image

there's nothing much I can add .....





p/s pls don't pm la... I am extremely bad at replying... what to do ... social distance singh ! icon_rolleyes.gif


TSBoon3
post Sep 25 2020, 09:31 AM

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UWC.... it's a meh..... rolleyes.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif



user posted image


Got see la..... but as can be seen.... I see nothing... tongue.gif

laugh.gif
howyoulikethat
post Sep 25 2020, 11:53 AM

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» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


But seeing the volume gradually increasing towards the end, wouldn't it show that the sharks are back collecting Comfort glove? hmm.gif
TSBoon3
post Sep 25 2020, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Sep 25 2020, 11:53 AM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


But seeing the volume gradually increasing towards the end, wouldn't it show that the sharks are back collecting Comfort glove?  hmm.gif
*
yes, the gradual volume pick up is positive for the stock and IF volume picks up, as can be seen clearly in the chart, there is acres of space for the stock to run up.....




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