Harloo.....so ini apa la.

I cannot play such trades la.
I don't have such skills.

Err...this stock is showing weakness since hitting its high in early May. If not wrong, it appears that this stock could be due for a more meanungful consolidation.

Hahaha....
You buy many lorry loads ah?

On 2/5 it hit its highest closing price of 0.665.
Look at the trading days since then.
There are more down days than up days.
It looks weakening....
And if you then add in today's trading...
Scary leh...
Esp when you factor in how much it has surged this year.

This one I long tried before....

I always say before I cannot do such trading.... no?

so like this also want to ask back for tipsy?

Ekovest trying to close its gap.

This should havr been your risk assessment for these type of stocks ma....

Cast in stone?

casted in the stone... that it is 'mostly so' ?


LOL! Ini macam also cast in stone meh?
macam yes tapi macam no ....

Gaps ara are gaps.
Most will be closed....
But there are some which are never closed....

Ya...macam yes tapi macam no.



This post has been edited by Boon3: May 16 2017, 09:18 AM

.... and BDB tanks after a poor set of quarterlies...

Please Q up!

It's adjusted for a 1:1 bonus issue in Jan.

This is WHY sometimes you need to NOT look at the EPS.

Instead, look at the net profit figures. In this instance compare 51 million net profit versus 39 million the same quarter a year ago. This way you would not get a distorted view on the stock.

WOW! Profit jumped a lot. Did you check for any one off items?

Actually no.
I do NOT agree that now is the time to go in.

If it was me....
I MIGHT do the following.

BDB's quarterlies earnings seems to be lumpier (ie. much more) on the Q4.
This is based on the last 2 fiscal year observation,
( Yes, the risk is that such assumption is based too loosely on too few data. 2 fiscal year data means nothing.... )
And considering the fact that the last couple of years dividends was announced after the Q4 earnings in Feb/Mar....
perhaps I would wait until Dec-Jan and see if I could catch a good entry.

*** such strategy has plenty of risks ***


of course... i would reconsider this strategy after the review of the next quarterly.

Ok, that's just a rough idea on what I might do.

Work out your own strategy.
And oh.... do not get totally hung up on JUST THIS ONE STOCK.

Why?
Liquidity isn't fantastic.
It's really a smallish property player ....

or simply put.... there are always a much better fish in the pond......

No wor.

Like I said, I do pay attention to a companies funnies.

This stock is doing shitty la.
If not mistaken, when I looked at it the last time, the profits was around 6 million per quarter.
Then there were some boom. Profits jumped to more than 12 million.

See Gark's explanation here post #2033, in fact, you can read that whole page.



my comments were there ....somewhere....

**stock did a split since then **


If you follow those comments and what has happened since then....

and focus on the EARNINGS.....

you would see that since then... the COMPANY has done shitty.... earning around 3 million plus the most recent couple quarters.

So why would I consider this as a stock to trade?

Or should I just trade the stock just cos the chart says so?

Ok... say I think more about the chart...

the stock is recovering...

the uptrend is so damn clear.



but you look at funny numbers...



Current half year, profits only 6+ million or an eps of 2.8 sen ONLY... based on current pace... maybe lucky we see 6 sen eps.
6 sen estimated eps wo...
Stock? 1.00++ meh?

Yeah... as mentioned by Suicidal, TA simply taruh in their report and gave it a projected profit of 22 million for the year. LOL! LOL! LOL!

You understand why market always taruh these research reports ke?

But then.... life in the markets is strange...
for the punters, most important, when research report give bull report and the stock goes bull.... damn right the research report is correct.

..... of course.... until the stock tanks.

then all the curses come out......



sure you want to play this TYPE of STOCK MARKET game ah?

research house say good... you buy?

If you do not understand this simple point, then perhaps there is no difference in punting in pure char kwey teu stocks and these so-called funnie stocks.

Waaaaa

I guess you like me to be long winded and make me say the obvious?



The last 2 quarters, the earnings declined 32% and 41% respectively. But the stock?
The stock was at 0.805 on 22nd Nov (the day after Q1 earnings)
The stock today closed today 1.03.

Which means the stock is up 22.5 sen despite posting two set of shitty results. To be more obvious, it's up a massive 28%.
Normal?
If you just have all these data, and you have NOT yet look at the actual chart, would you consider that this is a good/sensible/logical trade?

Think about it.
Goreng.
Fried.
You think ONLY stocks without fundamentals are fried? Is it cast in stone?
What's there to stop stocks with poor fundamentals from being fried? Is this not possible?


See the simple obvious point here?

Do you understand the obvious risk in trading such a stock at this moment of time?

Missed this....

What does the future holds for Inari? I dunno lah.

It release good numbers but closed lower with higher vol?

Here are two charts of Inari.




1. Inari, as a stock, had done rather well the past one year.

2. Volume. Volume. Volume. Yes, volume is important but we cannot look and try to decipher every single peaks/troughs lah. So yesterday's volume... I have no idea.

3. Has the results being priced in ? Well.. based on the charts, there's a chance and you should put into consideration that after these set of results, you might say that perhaps Inari is fairly valued atm.

4. regarding the company's notes.... err..... not sure.

Sometimes we can never know exactly what's happening but we can always do our best estimation.

On a six month time frame, the stock is so happening. It appears to be a strong uptrending stock. Very seductive.

However, as we zoom out, the picture isn't quite the same.

Take a look at the 5 year time frame.

It's a deep downtrending stock !!!!

If we relate to the company's profit track record, we CAN CLEARLY AGREE why the stock is so BORAK.

And the recent quarterlies agrees. Huge losses.

And so we have yet another case, where the stock is ABSOLUTELY DEFYING IT'S FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES.

How?

Whack the stock just cause the stock chart shows it might fly higher?



ps: it recently traded as low as 0.725.

You need to focus on the bare facts lah.

Nov 2016 results in comparison of its net profits.

Nov 2016 (3.33 million) vs Nov 2015 (4.89 million) vs Nov 2014 (9.28 million)

What's the above line saying? 2016 < 2015 < 2014. Check the RATE OF DECLINE.

Maybe one bad quarter. Maybe Nov period not ONG. Maybe Q1s is not good.

Check another one. ie the latest one. Checkout the Q2s.

Feb 2017 (3.35 million) vs Feb 2016 (5.64 million) vs Feb 2015 (12.17 million)

What's the above line saying again? 2017 < 2016 < 2015 and the RATE OF DECLINE is alarming too!

numbers taken from the table below again.



Either how you compare, the numbers are SHOWING VERY CLEARLY that this is a company whose EARNINGS HAVE BEEN DECLINING RAPIDLY.



Yes?



-------

ok.... some times... it does happen... that turnarounds might happen.

YES, this is a VALID TRADING STRATEGY.

But as valid as it is... you need to bet it on actual numbers.

How can you bet on a stock WHOSE TURNAROUND has YET TO HAPPEN but the stock price has already APPRECIATED some 28%?

make sense?

--------------


rite now...



which means you are betting on a stock trade just cause of its trend DESPITE it's shitty results, which basically is more the same as what the punters in MUDAJAYA is doing right now. Think logic lor. Where got investors chase a stock when the stock earnings is declining more and more. Make sense meh?

or simply put ... a thousand times again... you are trading just because of the chart.

OH YES, there are many who says that this is what they have been doing all their lives. The chart. The chart. The chart.

The chart becomes more important than the stock. WHY IS WHY I SAID SO obviously THAT IN SUCH STRATEGY THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE IN TRADING IN GORENG STOCKS. Yup, no difference. TIGER or SIGN, it doesn't matter. The chart says nice, I will trade.

This is reality.

If such trading strategy is OK with you, stick with it lah....

Your trade, your choice.