Err....yes... but honestly speaking.... the market will ignore all my points....

Is true....
That's the market la...
they cannot and will not allow a small futt like me kacau la

see Harta...
see how they nicely twist and turn ... and even give a new higher TP despite admitting Harta numbers came in sharply below their estimates...

market now very bull now...
sing what song ....
people will just sing and dance along ....

This post has been edited by Boon3: Aug 5 2020, 04:26 PM

this further proves market sentiment is a very determinant factor in the share market.

well of course.

Your trading strategies all also different lo...

Now.. if you whack on breakouts... most of the time, you get good end results.
when the market is drifting like last year.... lol .... breakouts? you be water fish

Everybody is just whacking at stuff without even checking ....

for example... GOLD is flying...



Now... what I will do .... look at the last previous gold run... when?

2008 or 2009 it went flying yes?

see if want to profit...
we can buy some Bank Negara gold coins or we can whack some gold related shares (here... adui ... jewelry shares...
so got 3 choices... i think...
poh kong or tomei ... I choose Poh Kong (but Poh Kong last qr koyak )
and then the fake fella .... Zhulian.

what I will do is look at Poh Kong trading during 2008 ...



Err.... poh kong like no jalan kereta then wo....

But look at Poh Kong today .... up how many %% ??

Then look at Zhulian (was this lulian spelt wrongly? )





isn't this the bigger winner during the last gold run?

today.... err.... better put into spoiler ...



Interesting eh?


I spam messages like this better than the .... u know what .... yes?

ok bo?

Thanks to the syndicates playing different themes in rotation.

... and then got the Bahvest .... and oh .... the miner to be Orion


macam macam also got...

Mah Sing...




but yeah.....dun care la.....

it's a bloody bull market la.............


at least one good thing for us Msians lo

ANCOMLB [S] 0.59

calling boon taikor!

i like to ask u a favor... to take a fresh look at superman.

my read:

daily candles... do u call today's candle a hanging man? it closed on a high note.

the rsi is high but not excessive.

there is still 2 more days b4 the QR results are out.

i have to make a decision tmr morning... to keep it until QR out or sell some/all of it.

i am betting on their PAT at circa rm200mil.

so, i am not expecting rm30, 35 in price.

but wud not like to miss out if it can get to 26, 28.

after that, it can sink to 20, 15... never mind.


what do u think?

TQVM, i owe u one.

Hehe. Yes gold run. See a good story, camp on it and sell it once its hype.


Jewelry counter Positive Spin:
Many gold inventories. Due to low sales during MCO. So old stock = low raw material cost, so with rising gold price you can profit from the difference between cheap raw material and high price finish goods.

Tomei vs Poh Kong
Poh kong 500+m inventories. Tomei 300+m inventories (as per last QR report) (We assume all their inventories are gold ) (i feel abit scientist like now).

This would mean if all their inventory holdings never sold since pre MCO. Tomei and Poh Kong inventory would now be value at increase 20% = (600m - Poh Kong), (360m - Tomei)

Assuming cost structure the same, this would mean next QR, we are expecting Net Profit to increase exponentially. As commodity trading, any small uptick in margin, would translate to big net profit difference. This is the nature of trading business, wont go too deep into this.

OK if you read until here, you would think. Wah all good, lets whack jewelry counters. But but but, what "analyst" wont mentioned is:

Valuation
Assuming today due to rising gold price poh kong earn 100m windfall profit and Tomei earn 60m windfall profit due to the rising gold price. How would it impact their valuation if everything remain the same ?

Poh Kong original market cap 200m+. So a 100m windfall profit, would justify a new 300m market cap = 50% increase from RM0.48 to RM0.72 +- share price

Tomei original market cap 70m+. So a 60m windfall profit would justify a new 130m market cap = 90% increase from RM0.45 to RM0.85 +- share price

But you see how much market value them now.

Jewelry counter Risk:
Last run on Tomei / Poh Kong was circa 2017, shot up in expectation of rising gold price. Puncture after a few months, trap many bag holders.

What people don't realized is Tomei / Poh Kongs are essentially jeweler. They buy gold and manufactured jewelry. So rising gold price is a one time inventory gain effect. As their future buy in raw material price had increased, so essentially if gold were to go down, they would suffer a big one-off as well due to high raw material price and low sell price to customer.

Also rising gold price, would mean their future jewelry become expensive, hence with expensive jewelry pieces, this would mean lower sales. So actually a rising gold price is a one off effect and a negative long run effect for business.


TLDR: Can trade jewelers counters on sentiment and a good story to spin, but don't invest for long term. It's a shitty business with low margins and cyclical due to gold price.

Hangman candle but the shadow is a little short and without the volume it's usually not conclusive ....

However .... the point you should 'consider' is the past 3 days trading ....

1. stock rammed up on the 4th ... just b4 the earnings...
2. but the next 2 days.... the declining volume is a worry...
3. that it finished closed to its highest price on much lower volume ..... this one is the worry... where all the kaki? some traders do take this as a cue to sell for a profit. It's one old classical sell signal.




having said all these ....
take my comments with huge dose of garam...
cos end of the day, my style of trading totally different from yours.... (as it is, I know I definitely cannot trade like you do ... )
and the other most important thing (if you do like Reminiscences book) you should realise you should always trust your own .....

anyway... good luck la....

If you look back at my chart .... during the 2008-2010 gold bull .... poh kong did not go crazy as it did today.
But back then... the market crashed and it certainly isn't driven to a frenzy like the current glove driven bull market...
it might be different.... perhaps one could dig back and examine Poh Kong's earnings as a reference... (just like what I did for gloves.. remember that postng) ..
and yea... the posting yesterday... was really half...
i already drawn a picture but I certainly wasn't gonna color it....

the run up by Nice is crazy and err '*******' .....
cos the one which is a better alternative was Zhulian, which pays a decent dividend (lol) and a better track record
The problem with AH Lian is that it's business is a mixture of mlm with their jewelry (fake la) business...
the last time... many folks did buy tons of fake stuff... no money nvm, gaya mesti ada... :lol
and needless to say... the concern is the impact of C19 on the mlm business...

and then the so called miners...

macam macam got ...

but yes... jewelry business is not as simple as suggested.
you need the old stock...
but you still need to order in new stock...
you need skill here...

and the marketing .... very important also ....

it's not so simple like you have gold inventory in your jewelry store, you would untung straight away....
cos your product (your finished jewelery) still needs to be seductive...

yeah Pok Kong rally is really .....

casino de bursa, ppl dont care nowadays.

ok, thanks for comments.

does me give something to chew on.

will see how it goes tmr morning.

TQ again!

I felt the same when I hold Harta before QR release two days ago.
When I monitored volume and movement on the day before it release, it's give me a signal to sell it before it dive on next day.

Nice stands for NiCHE Capital ... just hit 0.435 just now...

last week it was only 8 sen.

and its earnings not very NICE ... pun intended



but yeah.... goreng pisang sama dia!

Hmm.... interesting ....

This is Harta b4 the release of the QR



This is after ....

Nice



vs

Ah Lian



LOL! No fight

100m windfall for Poh Kong? err... who count ah? ( sorry half asleep when I first read ... so I missed this juicy part... )

First GOLD again ...



i think comparison should be made during the 2009 era la...

Ok, price of GOLD then and now ... different now ....

This is Ah Kong numbers during that period



This is Ah Mei's numbers



This is Ah Lian's numbers ...



(so pixelated so fake ... macam I kedai kopi .... better give link ...lol

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=1267116

This is Ah Boon's comments.... (must keep up to the Ah standard)

The jewelry players got enjoy profit la...
but definitely don't think can reach 100m windfall for players like Ah Kong la...

100m windfall is max already. Assuming all inventory since last quarter nvr sold and now only liquidate at current gold price.

Also this windfall of 100m is one off not like a continuous profit machine. So max also give it an increase share valuation of 50% from base only, not the now 300% share price increase poh kong is enjoying.

Ah.. the most optimistic number