It's now always rain and storm in IGB reits. when Covid issues is resolved, it will go back to it's glorious day
well unless they inject mid valley JB into IGB reits, that will create another different story

so.. assuming we as trader, we look at support.

what support does IGB Reits have
psychological support - checked
share price is at support level

fanboy support - checked
Do you think uncle aunty, UT fund and their mother (IGBB) reduce stake in IGB? yes but not much

On the reason why i do support elderly opinion of investing in Reits
- FD gives much lower returns than Reits
- Reits have income payout policy
- Reits are inflation best friend

then comes to trading Reits, advisable? good to go?
No

but if you ask me where do i put my spare money for retirement? keep in it bank? No. Reits is a better option
trade my retirement money in growth stocks? No. It's too risky until i master some of sure win technique in trading

but that's just me. I was once a very passive investor (buy KLCI Component stocks). but i'm venturing into mid to long term trading. and while i'm learning it. might as well park some money in Reits?

   

1 year too short for this kind of investment. if you ask me, 3-5 years is about right. Reits are slow...

1 year time frame, do trading better lah
Me too also starting something on trading... pick up some skill first

i'm not sure whether it's just me or many who do like this too

If i have 100k of cash equivalent asset. I will segregate only 30% max on trading, while 70% is on more stable investment like FD, Reits, Infra.

i can't comprehend on how would one put 100% into trading without considering safety factor

Just becareful of "endowment effect"..

Sometime traders/ investor are not aware of this "endowment effect" is actually steering their thoughts unconsciously...

The gogo super tech stocks of 2000 is roaring again ...... some 20 years later ....   

That was perhaps a bit too late when I made that posting....

1. On the same link, I do have another reference posting on Maybank on Oct 2019, when I questioned the justification on it, as I see no meat in the trade/investment. No meat means taking big money to make small money. (post #2250) And when you add in the inherent market risk issue, why insist on a stock like Maybank? My opinion still remains. Interest rates are going down. (not a desirable environment for banks). Risks of businesses closing down and the impact on the bankers. etc etc .....

2. Coincidentally, on the same page link, post #2253 ,I left my BAT posting there. BAT gave out huge dividends in its history but the stock still plunged the last 5 years. In short, dividend investing has its risk. One can get good dividends but yet, the stock can still fall sharply.

3. Company like BAT or even Public Bank. Aren't their stock fundamentals good? Yet, their stock price has declined greatly since their last high. What I am saying here is that fundamentally good company stock can go down badly during the companies bad times. Last time, SapuraKencana was one of the biggest Oil and Gas player. How many dared to call it fundamentally no good during its glory years? Oil then plunged. The stock was 5.00+ then. Rest is history. It did a rights issue around  30 or 40 sen. Now SAPNRG (new name) is below 10 sen. Now I am not implying Maybank would plunge that low but I feel at the current moment, this is one stock, one is taking big money to make small money.

4. Average down, as shown in your own example, technically require a much substantial capital to rescue a bad initial stock purchase decision. In your Maybank situation (you can call it fundamentally good (ok, I might agree)), your example showed that one started with a 17k investment/trade.  But due to the stock falling,  the 17k investment 'suddenly' turned to 53.3k investment.

5. There is a limit on how much one can average down. Why? We see how the average down process required a huge increase in capital outlay. The capital outlay grew exponentially. Sadly, sooner rather later, one MIGHT run out of money IF the stock doesn't recover soon. (if you refer the maybank chart posted on post #2250, the stock is trading in a clear downtrend channel. If Maybank stock doesn't break out of its downtrend channel, the possibility that the stock could trade much lower again... in which we have to address the issue next, if Maybank falls back lower, how much more money will one put in again? How long can one repeat to average down?

Current Maybank chart below...



6. Based on the Maybank dividend examples, I cherry picked the lowest point to buy the stock. And the result was dismal. Just imagined if I did not cherry picked. The result would have yielded losses despite Maybank's dividends.

7. Oh currently, I failed to consider the 39 sen dividend received from your example.

which means, dividends = 0.39x7 = 2730.00. Holding gain = 1540.00
Therefore, current gains = 4270.
Outlay = 53,300

So currently gain shows a 8% returns.

Which means... your average down in this instance is not bad.
8. Opportunity cost. In the midst of averaging down the price and pumping in so much more money in the stock, one needs to address if this is the best option? What if there was a clearly better opportunity elsewhere? But since one is financially committed and stuck in the current process of averaging down the stock, one might perhaps forgo that opportunity.
Ok. Done my long winded posting for the day... just sharing my view points on the issue of averaging down. Like I said before, well if you think t can work for you, good lo. Stick to it.

Well anything can happen , even to the so called "safe heaven", REIT...

America's malls under pressure : CBL, Pennsylvania REIT, file for bankruptcy

1) Come the next quarter, company like TG will be reporting FY 21 Q1 so will Superman.

So logically speaking, these scientists can no longer based their TP on FY 21 numbers. It HAS TO BASE THEIR TP ON FY22 numbers....

2) ASP, ASP, ASP .....

this is the VERY ESSSENCE of the profit growth. The MULTIPLIER effect on the profit.

2 b) Just yesterday....
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/asp-...-says-top-glove

Quote: Top Glove Corp Bhd has guided that the average selling price (ASP) for its nitrile gloves will increase by 30% in October, 15% in November and perhaps another 10% after November, as outlook for the group and the glove industry remains promising.

As of this month, the group's ASP for nitrile gloves stands at US$70 per 1,000 pieces. Nitrile gloves production occupied almost 60% of the total group's production, while the remainder comprised latex and vinyl gloves.


TG own guidance hor.... 70 X 1.3 x 1.15 ~ US104.65 per 1000 pcs.

and from this Edge article... we can make comparison....

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/sell...w-signs-peaking

Quote: On average, the current ASPs of nitrile and rubber gloves are US$50, and US$30 to US$40 per 1,000 gloves — more than double the pre-Covid-19 levels of US$21 and US$17 respectively.

ASP will be more than triple come end of the year....

This is the boom boom boom factor in my opinion.

Which clearly in business, such ASP can not be sustained.. the prices are absolutely insane....

Profiteering in times of crisis?

3) So without this multiplier effect... ie... when the ASP normalises back .... the decline in profits will be drastic......

That is LOGICALLY the risk.

4) So how long do you think glove makers customers will be held to this exorbitant rise in prices?

As I said b4... in the business world... buyers are not that water fish .... if the the glove makers do not show restrain in controlling the spiraling ASP,  buyers will.
and the consequences will be ugly in the future.

5) Good reference is the MPI case of the glory semicond bull days.... I do not have the data but from what I was told... MPI run, which was so much more glorious than the current glove makers, ended despite it reporting profit growth... yup... the stock declined before MPI's earnings started to decline... again not saying this will be the case for the glove makers... but an understanding of past rise and fall of the glory stocks would not hurt one's awareness.
take care.....
these glove comments are getting too tedious for me.... I just wanna shake my legs....     

and oh yeah... there's another stock which has almost the same pattern like PIE now.... ( errr.... just saying la )

Good stuff 

Homeritz and friends, Latitude has been trending up recently.

Hi, Boon3. Do you think Krono would be able to move further upwards as it has broken its resistance with some volume? DOes it really qualify as a breakout? It doesnt seem very convincing to me as its catalyst was the China contract.

Thanks a lot for the detailed comments, Boon3!  I guess if I were to trade Krono, it be difficult to reach the Aug volume now, unless more contracts are awarded and better QR ahead. Personally, I prefer to buy on dips but it is always interesting to learn about technical analysis. 

I thought Krono would earn more & my gut feeling is Krono may fall, but I'm often wrong on market perception.

remember this one ?


CMMT price is now 81 sen vs those posting price of 1.04 (posting made Sep 2019!) 

DPU for the period is 0.98 vs 1.71 a year ago.      Massive drop!

Hi Boon,

how about industrial Reits like Axis (KLSE) and Mapletree Industrial/Sabana (SGX) that doesnt rely on retail?

It goes up because of speculation?

That volume on 10 Nov, is due to the news of 90% effective coronavirus vaccine. Since then, recovery theme can be seen across bursa..

Probably euphoria is starting for Covid19 beaten stocks.. next stage is realisation stage which will bring stocks down.. and then there will be real recovery..

That's what I think la..