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TSBoon3
post Oct 26 2020, 01:18 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Oct 24 2020, 03:52 PM)
MI Technovation Berhad 5286

user posted image

Huge volume on QR date.

Seems the market is anticipating good QR result from MI equipment.

The QR released :

user posted image

Will they be disappointed?

Or are they looking forward to MI's expansion?

Chart will tell next week  whistling.gif
*
Corrected a fair bit... sweat.gif

If I was late and only just got interested in the stock, I would have waited and watched out for a breakout play.... wink.gif

( so lucky I did not follow this stock tongue.gif )

user posted image

and the breakout on heavy volume... looked 'okay' for me....

user posted image

the trading data on Friday showed nothing out of the ordinary....

the 15 min time frame....

user posted image

the stock drove higher sharply in the morning and then, in line with the general market, the stock pulled back just a little....


... but overall this stock has done remarkedly well since listing in 2018. I see there's a one for 2 bonus issue last year too...

user posted image

too bad .... I did not follow ......



This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 26 2020, 01:19 PM
TSBoon3
post Oct 27 2020, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Oct 26 2020, 10:32 AM)
So what matters most is the art of speculation?
MR DIY also can goreng up to 1.80
*
No. What matters most is what you are good at. If you are good at trading, then you very well need to understand the art of speculation. Strange you are asking such stuff after all these years.... wink.gif

TSBoon3
post Oct 27 2020, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Oct 24 2020, 03:52 PM)
Here's one you can observe .....

PIE

(observe la... no ask you chiak laugh.gif)


user posted image

looking like ...

left side of the cup... volume driving the stock price higher ... probably based on the article on the star on the same date...

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...revenue-in-2021

the bottom of the cup ..... the stock consolidate.... notice now the volume dries out .... maybe sceptical....

the right side of the cup .... stock got interest again .. and the stock is driven higher again... matching the high of 24 th Aug....

hencing forming the cup.....

and then the stock pulls back again.... nicely forming the handle....

the breakout of the handle...

user posted image

let's observe.... thumbsup.gif
TSBoon3
post Oct 27 2020, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Oct 27 2020, 04:36 PM)
C&H setup eh?  biggrin.gif

Well i think this "cup" is more established.

Pinjam ur chart, the volume showing "cup" too.

user posted image

Stock price pull back on light volume and climb on high volume, bull's commitment more than bear. Smell bullish.

However, still need 1 good earning as catalyst.

PS : If i tangan gatal and optimistic about this counter, i will take position during those days with super low volume .. ie when no body interested to sell / buy.
*
laugh.gif

I knew you would say that.... tongue.gif

Don't really follow this one also ( rolleyes.gif laugh.gif ) ... all I know is that this used to be a mega winner for Icap ( LOL! My fav .... kakakaka)

got hit by C19 but the company looks not too bad... perhaps a turnaround is around the corner ... more so ... the bullish comments by the boss
TSBoon3
post Oct 28 2020, 09:11 AM

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The gogo super tech stocks of 2000 is roaring again ...... some 20 years later .... sweat.gif sweat.gif

user posted image

user posted image


TSBoon3
post Oct 28 2020, 09:17 AM

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the monthly charts gives a much better view of the twins...



user posted image

user posted image
TSBoon3
post Oct 28 2020, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Oct 28 2020, 12:31 PM)
Honestly i didnt expect this kind of drop for JFTECH... What i expect will be some consolidation near 4.4x area..

user posted image

Nevertheless, the stock price has been doing quite well since MCO.

user posted image
*
YES!!! A lot of stocks had been doing well since MCO. smile.gif

JF? This one? Way over rated (over the years, its earnings is really miniscule) .... I could be wrong but looks like its fried and dumped... sweat.gif




and oh yeah... there's another stock which has almost the same pattern like PIE now.... ( errr.... just saying la )





TSBoon3
post Oct 28 2020, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 7 2020, 11:47 AM)
Aiyoooomah ! Hair all stand .....  doh.gif
so really want force me to see meh?........  sweat.gif  sweat.gif

nah.....
user posted image

see ... a busuk one always busuk one.... straight away no like what I see.....

1. see the stock rally from end July to end Aug?

2. the very day LCTitan released its earnings, stock out of the blue, decides to mati kow kow ... on back of heavy volume.... see the arrows...

3. after that day.... see how the stock 'crashed'....


4. now the stock is climbing back up... laugh.gif

which makes me wonder.... is the stock gonna be pump up and then collapse again after its earnings?  devil.gif
ps... you really remember my old postings on LC Titan eh?

for those that don't know....

.... LC Titan chemical IPO price...... what was it? ..... 6.50 tongue.gif

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/lott...below-ipo-price

which is so similar with what happened to Titan Chemicals last time.... IPO at high price... all the good earnings promised....
never materialised.... stock of course ... plunged since listing.... then after few years.... taken private.

LOL!

Well LC Titan ....

1. High IPO ... check
2. Plunge after IPO .... check
3. Lousy earnings after listing .... check

same same

how do you expect me as you say not blacklist this stock?  devil.gif
*
Suicidal Guy

Just saw LCTitan QR.

Once again... it disapppints.


user posted image


and the stock tanks straight away ...............................................................

But the points 1,2 and 3 .... I made in that posting..... same same isn't it if you put it into current prospective?

stock shoots high.... and then come QR .... die cow cow........ shakehead.gif

see? having a blacklist is so, so, so important.

Ignore what others say.... some stocks, you just don't want to touch at all .......
TSBoon3
post Oct 28 2020, 07:09 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Oct 28 2020, 07:01 PM)
Update MI (5286)

The earning indeed disappointing the market...

user posted image

Lower low and lower high with volume confirmation..
*
thumbup.gif


whatever it is .... the stock needs to consolidate .... watch where it does ( most important - do not guess where it will ) ........


TSBoon3
post Oct 29 2020, 07:00 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 28 2020, 07:55 PM)
parent AA is 56 sen, got sabah bank loan... wish them luck.

p/s... too bored with covid-gloves... just wanna kacau u a bit. tongue.gif
*
LOL! AAX...

Totally arrogant and again shows his ugly character which is highlighted with the latest MAHB lawsuit.

Kudos to MAHB. Bravo. It is the right thing to do.

The money is owed to MAHB. Even the courts of law agreed but what was surprising for me is that AAX has not paid (wonder what about AA). Such arrogance from TF. Already proven wrong and yet they still did not pay. Such arrogance!

Now if AAX rescue plan fails due to MAHB lawsuit.... what lovely Karma!
TSBoon3
post Oct 29 2020, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Oct 29 2020, 02:27 PM)
Update SUNREIT :

DPU For FY 2020 = 7.33 sens

SUNREIT Yield : 0.733/ 1.43 = 5.12%
Current eFD promo rate : 2.30 %
Current 10 Yrs MGS yield : 2.63 %

Latest QR result:

user posted image
DPU drop-> REIT price drop. The golden rule.

Let says one invested in SUNREIT during 19th May 2020 ,with price 1.55, one will currently now sitting at loss -9.2 %


Some of the highlight in the latest QR :

user posted image

user posted image

user posted image

Borrowing increased too, for the acquisition of Sunway Pinnacle  :

user posted image

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With current climate of prolonged global low interest rate environment, REIT will be the place for those yield chasing pension funds / institutional funds. Take a look at the largest 30 shareholders of REIT, mostly are those fund houses. A few % in yield different means almost nothing to individual investor, but for large institutional fund houses, we're talking about millions, or hundred of thousands perhaps?

user posted image

user posted image

However as an individual investor, the bet, or should i say investment strategy still remains, is to bet on its recovery. Here are some questions to ask ourself before investing in sunreit.

- Why SUNREIT?
- What is my expectation out of SUNREIT?
- How do I react if the price of SUNREIT drop further?
- Can the properties of SUNREIT earn me more DPU for years to come?
- When will be the recovery?
- What if it never recover?

icon_question.gif
*
Great stuff.


Yup... the declining DPU issue.... really golden rule...


And if one bought around 1.90 before March 2020...the damage is severe.

Where those ppl of previous times who boldly proclaimed that you can never lose money in Reits...



TSBoon3
post Oct 30 2020, 01:28 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Oct 30 2020, 12:50 PM)
well. i have know few older folks prefer reits because of (probable) sustainable payout and gives higher returns compared to bank

however this Covid was not anticipated 5 years back.

Understand your point talking in a trader points of view

but for retirees and pensioner. its a different school of thought
*
This point of view that 'lower DPU leads to lower stock price' is a fact based on market data. wink.gif

That isn't a trader point of view.

Who wants to own a stock which is giving less dividends back each year?
Who wants to own a cow which is giving out less milk each year?

Yeah, retirees might think differently too.
So does many local investors who are poisoned deep deep with the mindset that dividends magic works best for their money in the stock market.

Well? ... you want to make money or not?

rolleyes.gif
TSBoon3
post Oct 30 2020, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Oct 30 2020, 12:50 PM)
well. i have know few older folks prefer reits because of (probable) sustainable payout and gives higher returns compared to bank

however this Covid was not anticipated 5 years back.

Understand your point talking in a trader points of view

but for retirees and pensioner. its a different school of thought
*
Come .... give me MRreits bought... 5 years ago.

Give me the date and the actual buying price.
TSBoon3
post Oct 31 2020, 01:27 PM

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QUOTE(anakMY @ Oct 31 2020, 11:18 AM)
It does look like heavy manipulation to me . The extreme volatility. Right or not sifu boon.
*
Dude

do see inside...

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


All I said was JFTech is way over rated (over the years, its earnings is really miniscule) .... I could be wrong but looks like its fried and dumped...

Do search the info, see JF Tech's annual eps for the last 3 years.....
Can you see how small the eps is?
Add all 3 years eps, eps also don't have 10 sen. doh.gif

Which for me, it should not be worth more than rm1.00.
Look at the price when it collapsed....
If that's not over valued... what is?

and it traded above 5 bucks before it collapsed! laugh.gif laugh.gif

user posted image



I have always maintained that any stocks can be fried ....

Those in 2016 would have remembered the famous 4 stocks (which some dared to call 'fundamental stocks' (that's a farked up definition. so so situpdid to brand stocks as fundamental stocks, cos it makes no sense) that literally just plunged......

Let's see ..... ULI Corp (one very smelly stock) , OFI (oriental food) , SCGM and SLP all collapsed without 'reason' .....



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If one is NOT a good trader, I strongly advise not to touch JF Tech for the time being.....................................

This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 31 2020, 01:28 PM
TSBoon3
post Oct 31 2020, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(Suicidal Guy @ Oct 31 2020, 02:04 PM)
Hi @Boon3

Thanks for asking and thanks for your input.

user posted image
user posted image

On 20th, 15 min chart already showing warning signal. 15min chart making new low with increased volume. Daily close shows bottoming tail but volume is still not alarming. Usually there will be a rebound. So a trader would monitor 15min chart the next day to see if there is a rebound, and see if the rebound is weak or strong (consider to keep if rebound is strong). On 21st the next day, it is making new lows again with higher volume consecutively with no rebound. That would be the signal to exit. Daily chart shows increase in volume. If not monitoring the price on that day itself, the next day on 22nd would be the chance to exit.

Also, the the subsequent rebound seen on daily chart from 26th onward is with low volume showing that it is weak. That would be the second chance to exit.

Most of the time, a stock with public interest have a rebound after a big sell off. That is the chance to exit if things are not right.
*
Hope you understand why Titan is such a blacklist stock.


TSBoon3
post Oct 31 2020, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 25 2020, 09:23 AM)
Note to ownself.... buybacks + ESOS + ED disposal of shares...

Some of the recent ESOS exercised was highlighted post #3122
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


as can be seen the big ones, the ESOS issued at an extremely cheap prices.... below 1.70.....
So following days showed one of the Eexcutive Director, Lim Cheng Guan, disposed 380,000 shares!

and yesterday, it was announced the very same ED, Lim Cheng Guan, exercised some 300,000 shares (no price was disclosed but you can bet the exercise price was extremely cheap!)

Ahem!!!

That was some fast profit by disposing the shares and then exercise back some very cheaply priced ESOS!!

See.... that's fine. Fine by all means. Everyone does it in the corporate world. They get rewarded with cheap ESOS as a reward for the years of hardwork...

but ..... when this is done when the company is actively doing buybacks.... it gets muddied very fast and all sort of accusations will be made....

see why I had said when the company does massive buybacks, it's gotta to be dead certain that none of these shit is going on!

and yeah... huge chunk of convertible bonds were converted to shares during this period too (check the conversion price? tongue.gif ... so nice the buyback had pushed the stock price so high! )....  shakehead.gif
But.... like they say.... the rising share price means all these matters not!

LOL! Share price going up... see nothing, know nothing, do nothing.  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
*
OMG.

Kathy finally picked up on this issue but I wished she had done more homework and she would realise when Lim had also sold the previous month, the company was also actively buying back its own shares.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-...hares-sale-june

QUOTE
Top Glove’s latest filing with Bursa Malaysia shows that its executive director Lim Cheong Guan sold 200,000 shares at RM8.79 on Monday (Oct 26), and 30,000 shares at RM8.98 on the following day.


And then this part...

QUOTE
While Top Glove’s director was selling shares, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) was doing the opposite. The provident fund has bought an additional 51.35 million shares, raising its stake in Top Glove to 5.67% as at Oct 27, compared with 5.05% as at Sept 21.
What is so conflicting is that the big boss sits on the EPF board. A real conflict of interest when EPF is actively buying Top Glove shares.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 31 2020, 03:39 PM
TSBoon3
post Oct 31 2020, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 31 2020, 03:37 PM)
What is so conflicting is that the big boss sits on the EPF board. A real conflict of interest when EPF is actively buying Top Glove shares.
Posted this b4....

QUOTE
But anyway... for this EPF and TG .... I am so disappointed to read EPF buying up shares in TG.

This is a huge NO NO!

It's a situation created because the boss sits on EPF board, which means the conflict of interest issue arises! (this was mentioned casually b4 see post #3024 )

Everything is searchable in the net... really. tongue.gif

Search the phrase 'epf board conflict of interest'

https://newmalaysiatimes.com/2018/12/04/naj...ct-of-interest/

This part... The MSWG released a Message From CEO in the Weekly Newsletter dated November 16, 2018 ( http://www.mswg.org.my/newsletters/mswg-we...er-2018-english )

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


* and of course ... TG related https://newmalaysiatimes.com/2018/11/13/rm8...intees-company/ ***

It is a conflict of interest when directors of Public Listed Companies (PLCs) sit on boards (or committees) of institutional investors, who in turn have shareholdings in the said PLC, from which that director comes from.

That's the issue..... this is simply unacceptable in the investment community, where the conflict of interest is such a huge no-no...


And then the timing of the acquisition ....

Again I am stressing the point... when a listed company do buyback, they need to be absolutely sure nothing coincides with the buybacks....
And here we have TG doing huge buybacks...
and then the conflicts.... large ESOS stake are granted listing during this time, huge chunks of TG convertible bonds are converted into ordinary shares during this period... both which carries a significant low cost, which means ESOS shares or the bond shares could be sold for a nice chunk of profit .... and then you have one of the Executive Director selling 350,000 shares (which is not a lot but the value is more than the 2 million!) ... and now ... coincides with EPF buying TG shares???
and remember the buyback on the 11th Sep, which clearly drove the stock so much higher....

so much conflict...... how la?

IF ..... someone stands up.... and accuses TG of blatantly propping up the shares  ..... do you think the accusation is valid?
TSBoon3
post Oct 31 2020, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(abcn1n @ Oct 31 2020, 04:12 PM)
Am currrently holding Sunreit at a loss. Will continue to hold it as one day the pandemic will be over, then price will rise back, hopefully to at least my BE price. Meanwhile collect dividend.

Most important question to ask is : Will pandemic be over. Answer is yes. Whether Sunreit can manage /grow its DPU will depend on how good its management is.
*
Have you consider the risk in your strategy for Sunreit?

Ok... here's my 3 sen input....

1. Meanwhile collect dividend....

Dividend has been changed from quarterly to semi annually.

And the dividends has shrunk a lot....


user posted image

See how drastic the decline in dividend payout?
Last payout was only 0.9 sen.
And it's only be paid twice a year. Instead of 4 times.

So you have to asked yourself, is the current and the future DPU be enough?
isn't it like small change?
will the dpu cover the drop in share price?

Yes the share price will drop.
You do realise that it is proven that once the DPU declines, the share price will fall.

So adding both together, the big risk question is... how much the dividend can compensate for the drop in share price?

2. Here is the chart.

The chart will be needed. Yeah... one can argue that since it's REITS, them blardy charts is redundant.

But in terms of risk ...... shouldn't ask yourself, how low the stock might fall?
yes, you need to consider the worst case scenario .... so that you can answer the question, how much dividend can compensate the drop in share price?

this is the chart...

user posted image

what do I see?

1. The beautiful long term trend had been clearly broken since March 2020.

* think of the reasoning and logic behind the fall. The MCO was activated. It's a pandemic. What will be the worst hit sectors? Travel, retail and entertainment related. With MCO, the malls will be badly hit. With the pandemic, the travel industry is dead. The hotel industry will be hammered *

2. the bias of the stock is clearly to the downside.....

3. What do I see?

I see acres of real estate in the chart on the downside!!!

ie if the fall continues... it could get real ugly.

Have you consider the risk of the stock falling to 1.30 or even 1 buck in the near future?


**** ah.... not saying it will fall that low. But this is your risk assessment. You got to ask yourself... if it's ok to see the stock fall so low and collect ultra low dividend in the process? ****


This is what I will consider if I am holding Sunreit.



and yeah... I am a trader and I could be very wrong in my thought process.



TSBoon3
post Oct 31 2020, 07:04 PM

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Heard about suggestions that with the mega profit, TopGun will be out hunting for asset.

Well, if that's the case, perhaps one should review what transpired will the Aspion glove purchase.

Let me reproduce what I had written... post #2252

QUOTE
Just recently, there's that Aspion scandal...

So TopGun bought Aspion gloves (they do surgical gloves) from Adventa. Price was 1.3 billion.

After the acquisition, TopGun announced the shocker. They claimed that the inventory, plant and machinery was overstated. In short, TopGun overpaid by 640million.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-...rgical%20gloves.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/turk...-buyers-remorse

so many issues/questions on how a company like TopGun can overpay by so much.

for example ... frm Dali:  http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2018/0...cquisition.html

Quote:
QUOTE
Who were the advisors for Top Glove?
What actually did they advised?
Who did the due diligence?
Was it a limited due diligence, if so, there should be clawback, e.g. staggered payments till full due diligence is done.
Why was full sum paid prior to a full due diligence?
Was it too rushed?
If so, why the rush?
Where was the board's view in the scheme of things?
Were the advisors well versed with billion ringgit acquisitions?
Where was the due diligence?
Who were the accountants for the private company beforehand?
How did they not qualify the financials before?
1.3 billion ACQUISTION hor... directors all tidur meh? Did they overpay? Or did Adventa cheated by overstating the accounts? rolleyes.gif shakehead.gif

So they then sued Adventa for 715 million.
Logical mah...

And apparently Adventa counter sued.... lol... what drama..

What happened next was even mind blowing for me... both parties, TopGun and Adventa settled....

but the amount settled was only 245 million.

Macam mana ni?

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-...pute-settlement

The math somehow doesn't sound right to me... over pay by 640 million. Sued for 715 million. Settle for 245 million.
End of the drama, TopGun still overpayed by a whopping 395 million!!!!

TopGun board of directors all ok with it meh?
Press like theEdge had called it Turkey of the year... and TopGun settled for so little?
... and yeah... got conspiracy rumours lo.....

and they were other comments ... such as ...

https://newmalaysiatimes.com/2020/02/19/top...m-shareholders/

See? Company like TopGun got its multi million issue....
Think about it.... what if Top Gun made another 'Aspion' purchase?


TSBoon3
post Nov 1 2020, 01:22 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Nov 1 2020, 10:18 AM)
Premium Reits biggrin.gif
user posted image
rolleyes.gif

Anyway, let's look at your premium reit, IGBReit.

*** Smurfs do correct me if possible ***

This is IGBReit (your premium Reit) ....

user posted image

Those buying above rm2 since last year... they are now 'losing' money (despite getting their dividends).


user posted image

IGBReit closed on Friday at 1.67... it's recent high was 1.90.

If it's premium, why is there sign that it looks like IGBReit could break down lower?

rolleyes.gif


Now the point we are highlighting is that lower DPU will lead to lower share price.

IGB Reit share is going lower.... so is reflecting the fact that DPU is going lower?


user posted image

user posted image


How?

See how the lower DPU is sending your PREMIUM reit lower?

rolleyes.gif rolleyes.gif rolleyes.gif

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