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Malaysian Estimated Weekly RON95/RON97 Price, RON95 ◆, RON97 ◆ on 7/3 (Estimation)
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djhenry91
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Apr 19 2017, 08:04 PM
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QUOTE(isr25 @ Apr 19 2017, 06:31 PM) Yes, they told the formula and how to calculate it numerous times, but since the weekly announcement, not as accurate prediction as before. Really fishy man... now I wonder if they also used mean of platts NY or Singapore for Saturday and Sunday NY platts? impossible wat..but weekend where got trading for MOGAS 95??
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TSisr25
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Apr 19 2017, 08:11 PM
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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Apr 19 2017, 08:04 PM) NY platts? impossible wat..but weekend where got trading for MOGAS 95?? Our Saturday is their Friday  But the Ringgit does not trade over the weekend though... hmmm... let me run a couple of scenarios to see how they derive that 3 cents increase. E.g Maybe they used all 3 ringgit values through the day i.e opening, mid-day and closing time?
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djhenry91
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Apr 19 2017, 08:16 PM
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QUOTE(isr25 @ Apr 19 2017, 08:11 PM) Our Saturday is their Friday  But the Ringgit does not trade over the weekend though... hmmm... let me run a couple of scenarios to see how they derive that 3 cents increase. E.g Maybe they used all 3 ringgit values through the day i.e opening, mid-day and closing time? hmm..i using close settlement price.. but MOGAS follow SG day ma..is jus tht slow nia.. maybe monday exchange rate use Monday wan? Monday wan use Tuesday? if u use different session which is 0900,1130,1200 and 1700 thn average it and count it per day? thn wednesday to calculate estimate final price thn average 5 day exchange rate?
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TSisr25
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Apr 19 2017, 08:24 PM
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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Apr 19 2017, 08:16 PM) hmm..i using close settlement price.. but MOGAS follow SG day ma..is jus tht slow nia.. maybe monday exchange rate use Monday wan? Monday wan use Tuesday? if u use different session which is 0900,1130,1200 and 1700 thn average it and count it per day? thn wednesday to calculate estimate final price thn average 5 day exchange rate? Hmm... nvm, will run a few scenarios tomorrow to see how we can try to calculate the price, since we have 4 weeks of outcomes to try out.
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djhenry91
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Apr 19 2017, 08:26 PM
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i try and result same je lol..
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TSisr25
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Apr 19 2017, 08:32 PM
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 so something really fishy going on... noticed all the cybertroopers who normally post about fuel prices also quite silent since the change to weekly pricing... maybe coz couldn't justify these price increases? Anyway - 14/4 no MOGAS95 trade coz Good Friday holiday in Singapore This post has been edited by isr25: Apr 19 2017, 08:33 PM
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djhenry91
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Apr 19 2017, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(isr25 @ Apr 19 2017, 08:32 PM)  so something really fishy going on... noticed all the cybertroopers who normally post about fuel prices also quite silent since the change to weekly pricing... maybe coz couldn't justify these price increases? Anyway - 14/4 no MOGAS95 trade coz Good Friday holiday in Singapore ya..even i delete 14/4 still show same hahaha
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sendohz
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Apr 20 2017, 08:59 AM
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keep up the good work TS nevertheless.
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nicodemus
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Apr 20 2017, 11:17 AM
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Getting Started

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Keep it up the good work, at least we know the movement of the price and estimation.
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xcoselete
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Apr 22 2017, 06:27 AM
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Getting Started

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How accurate is the RON95 data from CME website?
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mchambs67
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Apr 22 2017, 08:53 PM
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Getting Started

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QUOTE(isr25 @ Apr 19 2017, 08:32 PM)  so something really fishy going on... noticed all the cybertroopers who normally post about fuel prices also quite silent since the change to weekly pricing... maybe coz couldn't justify these price increases? Anyway - 14/4 no MOGAS95 trade coz Good Friday holiday in Singapore Thks guys for the tracking n can treat this as an outlier. Hopefully next week prices will be lower now tht Petronas dealers are allowed to give discounts - according to Paultan website. Now need some genius to come up with an app/website to check discounts or prices ☺ This post has been edited by mchambs67: Apr 22 2017, 08:55 PM
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djhenry91
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Apr 22 2017, 09:06 PM
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QUOTE(xcoselete @ Apr 22 2017, 06:27 AM) How accurate is the RON95 data from CME website? i can say 99% of coz is delayed.. why i say 99% because other 1% is this week petrol price is way different what TS and I calculate
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xcoselete
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Apr 23 2017, 05:47 AM
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Getting Started

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Apr 22 2017, 09:06 PM) i can say 99% of coz is delayed.. why i say 99% because other 1% is this week petrol price is way different what TS and I calculate How accurate is MOPS95 prices from CME website as compared to the official MOPS95 prices published by Platts?
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Lone Wolf X
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Apr 23 2017, 06:07 AM
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QUOTE(xcoselete @ Apr 23 2017, 05:47 AM) How accurate is MOPS95 prices from CME website as compared to the official MOPS95 prices published by Platts? The CME website used by TS is referencing futures prices, there are other types of prices which are spot and contract prices. As to your question the only way to know if you have subscription to MOPS. Also the CME website does not mention the grade of the fuel, is it EURO2, EURO4, EURO5, BIODIESEL5, BIODIESEL7 standard. So I believe (haven't found concrete proof) that this is causing the difference in the calculation.
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TSisr25
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Apr 23 2017, 06:53 AM
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QUOTE(xcoselete @ Apr 23 2017, 05:47 AM) How accurate is MOPS95 prices from CME website as compared to the official MOPS95 prices published by Platts? It's the only one available free of charge QUOTE(Lone Wolf X @ Apr 23 2017, 06:07 AM) The CME website used by TS is referencing futures prices, there are other types of prices which are spot and contract prices. As to your question the only way to know if you have subscription to MOPS. Also the CME website does not mention the grade of the fuel, is it EURO2, EURO4, EURO5, BIODIESEL5, BIODIESEL7 standard. So I believe (haven't found concrete proof) that this is causing the difference in the calculation. Hmmm... You may be right, but during the monthly average pricing, it was quite accurate... It's during this weekly pricing it is out of whack...
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xcoselete
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Apr 23 2017, 03:11 PM
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Getting Started

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QUOTE(Lone Wolf X @ Apr 23 2017, 06:07 AM) The CME website used by TS is referencing futures prices, there are other types of prices which are spot and contract prices. As to your question the only way to know if you have subscription to MOPS. Also the CME website does not mention the grade of the fuel, is it EURO2, EURO4, EURO5, BIODIESEL5, BIODIESEL7 standard. So I believe (haven't found concrete proof) that this is causing the difference in the calculation. Actually you can find MOGAS95 on the CME website
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djhenry91
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Apr 23 2017, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(xcoselete @ Apr 23 2017, 03:11 PM) Actually you can find MOGAS95 on the CME website he talkin about tht mogas95 from CME website no tell euro5 euro4
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xcoselete
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Apr 23 2017, 10:52 PM
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Getting Started

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Apr 23 2017, 06:27 PM) he talkin about tht mogas95 from CME website no tell euro5 euro4 oohh my bad. MOGAS95 is the grade of fuel. Euro 4/5 is the emission standard.
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djhenry91
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Apr 23 2017, 11:12 PM
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QUOTE(xcoselete @ Apr 23 2017, 10:52 PM) oohh my bad. MOGAS95 is the grade of fuel. Euro 4/5 is the emission standard. i not sure how to calculate on the euro4/5 like diesel..we got diesel euro 5 problem is add how much cost on it
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SUSjasonhanjk
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Apr 25 2017, 12:10 PM
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Expected will be reduce between 0.03-0.04 cents per liter.
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