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> Malaysian Estimated Weekly RON95/RON97 Price, RON95 ◆, RON97 ▲ on 13/7 (Calculation)

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TSisr25
post Feb 22 2017, 09:47 AM, updated 2d ago

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My prediction/calculation for the new RON95/97 price that will come on Saturday 13/7:

Just to share the daily estimated fuel prices for Week 2 July 2019

The current RON95 price is RM2.08 and RON97 is RM2.53 which was announced on Friday 5/7.

Calculation and table of estimated price can be found at this link: https://goo.gl/cpYiBN

If calculating 4/7 to 10/7 cycle (Thursday to Wednesday - weekends are using Friday prices), RON95 should be around RM2.26, and RON97 should be around RM2.56.

However, since they announced that RON95 will be capped at RM2.08/l, my estimate is RON95 will maintain at RM2.08 and RON97 price go up by 3 sen to RM2.56 (±1 sen).

user posted image

Insider Info:
None yet

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018...main-unchanged/

Thx for the support guys!

Frequently Asked Questions:
1. Why are we using MOPS/MOGAS to calculate the fuel prices? Why not use Brent/Crude oil prices? (Credit to Lone Wolf X)
Most probably the same reason why Australia & Singapore uses it.

"The petrol companies use Mean of Platts Singapore (“MOPS”) prices, not crude oil prices in their cost accounting and pricing decisions for retail petrol. Crude oil price is the price of unrefined oil while MOPS price is the price at which petrol companies purchase the refined wholesale petrol from the refineries. MOPS price tends to be higher than crude oil price as it includes the cost of refining the crude oil into wholesale petrol." - quoted from the www.ccs.gov.sg below

FYI - MOGAS is one of the product listed under MOPS

Layman term:
You don't eat Paddy, you eat cooked Rice. Same for your car, it doesn't take crude oil, it takes refined fuel - priced using MOPS for our region.
Paddy = Crude Oil Price
Cooked Rice = MOPS Price

REF
Facts About the Australian Retail Fuels Market and Prices
UNDERSTANDING PETROL PRICES IN SINGAPORE.
Interim Findings From CCS's Retail Petrol Study

Symbol reference:
▲◆▼

This post has been edited by isr25: Jul 11 2019, 08:19 AM
TSisr25
post Feb 22 2017, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(adamhzm90 @ Feb 22 2017, 10:03 AM)
thumbs up
*
Thanks! Hope the spreadsheet helps you!

QUOTE(IpohLad @ Feb 22 2017, 11:02 AM)
RM2.5 per litre from 1st March.
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Seriously bro... Don't just quote figures... Do you have a source where you're getting the RM2.5/l? This is F&F and not /k. Hopefully you will learn something on how the fuel price is calculated using the link above smile.gif

This post has been edited by isr25: Feb 22 2017, 11:11 AM
TSisr25
post Feb 22 2017, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(lsm1991 @ Feb 22 2017, 11:24 AM)
tenkyu abang!!! do update if there are any changes!!!
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I'm updating it on a daily basis (or 2 days at the latest smile.gif) so you can check whenever.

But really, you only need to check it at the end of the month - or the last few days of the month, just to get a feel of next month's price.

I'll update the first post if there are any changes thumbsup.gif

This post has been edited by isr25: Feb 22 2017, 11:44 AM
TSisr25
post Feb 22 2017, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(TamashiiHeroes @ Feb 22 2017, 11:55 AM)
abang ,mana u find out the genius make top confidential formula ? lol
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It's not confidential, just that the sources is hard to find. I credit 2 sources for me to find out how they actually calculate

http://etp.pemandu.gov.my/Related_Stories-...oil_prices.aspx
https://taizeekin.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/...price-yourself/

A fight with an idiot on FB early this month, made me calculate the fuel price myself to shut the idiot up rolleyes.gif Now I'm doing it just for fun, and for my own info since I pump RON97 (MOGAS97 is harder to find - last update was end of last year... sad.gif)

Take the historical values with a pinch of salt, as I didn't start to keep track the daily MOGAS95 prices until Feb 2017.

QUOTE(dirtrun @ Feb 22 2017, 12:03 PM)
Bros,

This is a calculated estimation of the future price of fuel..
Its not to 'guess' the next price increase.. smile.gif
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Yes, this is not a guesstimate. It's a calculated estimation - but the government may still price it higher or lower depending on whether they want to give some subsidy, or get some more money tongue.gif
TSisr25
post Feb 22 2017, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(lsm1991 @ Feb 22 2017, 12:27 PM)
ehh.. if you are already calculating 97, might as well and include it!!!
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The chart is RON95. I am using RON97, but couldn't find a free source to calculate it like RON95. The free source only provided the MOGAS97 information until 15 Dec 2016, and it suddenly stopped... Unless I pay for the updated daily figures (which I find silly for a personal hobby) I can't find any (free) source at the moment...

Anyway, the RON95 price is already a good indicator whether RON97 goes up or down or thereabouts.
TSisr25
post Feb 24 2017, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(ic3rock @ Feb 24 2017, 10:44 PM)
[attachmentid=8523581]

For reference...  puke.gif
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Nah... I would call this malicious speculation. No basis whatsoever with no named sources - it might just be a figment of their imagination to drive hits to their website.

Our ringgit is getting slightly stronger and the price of refined oil price is getting lower toward the end of the month. As of yesterday, the price of RON95 for March 2017 is at an estimated RM2.2898/liter at the pump on average.

This post has been edited by isr25: Feb 24 2017, 11:19 PM
TSisr25
post Feb 25 2017, 07:55 AM

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QUOTE(Lone Wolf X @ Feb 25 2017, 07:12 AM)
Bro, can share your source for MOGAS95 been trying to find one reliable & accurate but no luck
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It's inside the google doc spreadsheet. I'm using cmegroup and bank negara closing figures
TSisr25
post Feb 25 2017, 08:20 AM

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QUOTE(Lone Wolf X @ Feb 25 2017, 07:58 AM)
Those are futures prices not daily price, hence the slight inaccuracy. I was hoping for something more reliable source
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Futures is good enough and slight inaccuracies - including last month and previous month is actually off by 1 sen is a-ok. You need to pay to track the actual daily figures - and it's not cheap

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...-sen-fuel-hike/
http://www.therakyatpost.com/news/2017/02/...t-for-february/

1. They mentioned RM2.262 per liter for Feb, I got RM2.2464 - a difference of 1.6 sen tongue.gif
2. They mentioned RM0.09 undercharging for Jan, and I got the same figure.

This post has been edited by isr25: Feb 25 2017, 08:36 AM
TSisr25
post Feb 25 2017, 12:20 PM

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QUOTE(EnergyAnalyst @ Feb 25 2017, 10:20 AM)
Good thread. Just curious, what do you do for living?
*
IT guy smile.gif
TSisr25
post Feb 25 2017, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(lucifah @ Feb 25 2017, 06:44 PM)
good share. thread pinned
*
Thanks! thumbup.gif
TSisr25
post Feb 28 2017, 06:55 PM

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QUOTE(19 Degree South @ Feb 28 2017, 06:24 PM)
So,any latest since this is the last day of the month?
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Don't know 28/2 MOGAS95 closing figures, but unless it goes up to like USD80 (impossible), estimated March 2017 fuel price will remain at RM2.30/liter, with a small chance to go down to RM2.35/liter.

My money is at 2.30.
TSisr25
post Feb 28 2017, 07:12 PM

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Feb 28 2017, 07:11 PM)
should see 27/2 i jus check back CME website..
if want see 28/2 need wait tomorrow morning only know.
*
Yup. It updates at 6am tongue.gif

Anyway, just for reference, I am using BNM 5pm (closing time) and middle rate for my USD/MYR calculation.
TSisr25
post Feb 28 2017, 07:22 PM

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QUOTE(hihihehe @ Feb 28 2017, 07:18 PM)
you got it right
remain unchanged except diesel(up 5 cent)
*
Great! On to April estimation laugh.gif

I won't start tracking diesel, but I'll try to track RON97. I won't know how accurate that is until April's figure is released.
TSisr25
post Mar 6 2017, 08:41 AM

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QUOTE(rcracer @ Mar 4 2017, 08:32 PM)
This thread is dead

Fuel prices deregulated from next month , maximum set by gomen, retailers free to follow or set lower

TS should start developing smartphone app to display lowest pump price in vicinity

Instant millionaire
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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Mar 4 2017, 09:01 PM)
lol..this thread only alive if almost reach fuel price announcement..
next month sure very active due to weekly fuel price changes..
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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Mar 5 2017, 12:27 PM)
Now  is weekly adddd
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My take on it is that - the weekly fuel announcement mechanism, and subsequent "petrol price war" that they intend, we will need to see how it goes. This thread might be of use, or might not be useful at all. I'll keep tracking and updating it - as I said, for my hobby. Feel free to check it out, if not, then don't check it biggrin.gif

Anyway, did a scenario what will happen if we did a weekly petrol pricing:

Week 1 (30/1-3/2) - RM2.27 (RM2.25?)
Week 2 (6/2-10/2) - RM2.29 (RM2.30?)
Week 3 (13/2-17/2) - RM2.30
Week 4 (21/2-24/2) - RM2.28 (RM2.30?)
Week 5 (27/2-3/3) - RM2.20

So it's better for the consumer. I'm not sure how the mechanism will announce - every Friday? Every Saturday/Sunday? Every Monday? Will need to see how the system works definitely...

Anyway, I highly doubt that petrol stations will offer lower than the "ceiling" price... But we shall see.

This post has been edited by isr25: Mar 6 2017, 08:45 AM
TSisr25
post Mar 19 2017, 08:43 AM

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QUOTE(rcracer @ Mar 17 2017, 02:37 PM)
So what price in two weeks ?
*
I thought you said the thread was dead? laugh.gif

Anyway, click the link to find out. Don't expect to be spoon fed all the time Malaysian Estimated RON95 & Diesel Fuel Price Calculation Spreadsheet
TSisr25
post Mar 22 2017, 06:44 PM

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Mar 22 2017, 06:03 PM)
correct la..for the cost
*
Yup, thanks for the tag, will update the spreadsheet to take into account 23 March - 29 March (7 days) for the first weekly oil price announcement.

It's kind of good though coz the current market rate of fuel is about RM2.10 at the moment biggrin.gif
TSisr25
post Mar 22 2017, 07:55 PM

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Mar 22 2017, 07:32 PM)
if RM2.00 or below i happy liao
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Highly unlikely liao, unless oil price goes down or our ringgit grows stronger. RM2.10 now, or RM2.05 lowest next week looking at the trend

QUOTE(alextan99 @ Mar 22 2017, 07:34 PM)
I doubt any retailers will sell it lower than the ceiling price.
*
Me too bro. I doubt they wanna take a hit on their margins, unless it's like 1-3 sen discount laugh.gif let's see next week
TSisr25
post Mar 26 2017, 09:04 AM

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Ok guys, I had updated the spreadsheet to match the government's announced pricing - Announce on Wednesday evening, but effective on Thursday. I can only do an estimate on Thursday - Tuesday petrol pricing, as I do not have real time information access on Wednesday's price, but it should be close enough.

as of 24/3, the price would be RM2.10 for RON95 and RM1.95-RM2.00 for diesel. Petrol price is stabilising these past few weeks, and our ringgit is growing stronger.

This post has been edited by isr25: Mar 26 2017, 09:05 AM
TSisr25
post Mar 30 2017, 08:21 AM

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QUOTE(rcracer @ Mar 29 2017, 08:21 PM)
95 is accurate , diesel is way off , 11 cents more expensive
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QUOTE(zeng @ Mar 29 2017, 08:48 PM)
TS is quite spot on.
RON95 is RM2.13/L, drops RM0.17/L.
Diesel is RM2.11/L, drops RM0.09/L
*
The RON95 source is quite close to what the government is doing. Diesel price is way off - not sure because of the source is different? But in the beginning of the month, it was looking very similar to current prices.

In any case, it's quite interesting to see this price difference. May need a couple of weeks of monitoring to see what was causing the difference. It can be either the government is pricing it higher to get more tax from it (profit from higher price of RON95/Diesel) or it's to allow the petrol companies to offer discounts - hence why they need to get approval from the government to offer discounts/promotions since they are taking the government's profits away... hmm.gif
TSisr25
post Apr 4 2017, 08:50 AM

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I am going to Bangkok tomorrow, so may not be able to update the figures tomorrow, but in any case, fuel price will be going up when they announce tomorrow. Fuel up by tomorrow guys.

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