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> Malaysian Estimated Monthly RON97 Price, RON97 ▼ on 1/12 (Calculation)

isr25
post Feb 22 2017, 09:47 AM, updated 2w ago

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My prediction/calculation for the new RON97 price that will come on Saturday 1/12:

RON95 estimated average price for the upcoming December is RM2.16 (average price for November 1-28) and RON97 is estimated to be RM2.30 (an average difference of 14 sen from RON95). If it's higher than this prices for December 1, it means that the government is taxing its citizens more. Fuel up on Saturday onward people.

user posted image

Insider Info:
None yet

Fuel up after Thursday to be safe.

AIP MOPS95 & GASOIL
user posted image

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018...main-unchanged/

Thx for the support guys!

Frequently Asked Questions:
1. Why are we using MOPS/MOGAS to calculate the fuel prices? Why not use Brent/Crude oil prices? (Credit to Lone Wolf X)
Most probably the same reason why Australia & Singapore uses it.

"The petrol companies use Mean of Platts Singapore (“MOPS”) prices, not crude oil prices in their cost accounting and pricing decisions for retail petrol. Crude oil price is the price of unrefined oil while MOPS price is the price at which petrol companies purchase the refined wholesale petrol from the refineries. MOPS price tends to be higher than crude oil price as it includes the cost of refining the crude oil into wholesale petrol." - quoted from the www.ccs.gov.sg below

FYI - MOGAS is one of the product listed under MOPS

Layman term:
You don't eat Paddy, you eat cooked Rice. Same for your car, it doesn't take crude oil, it takes refined fuel - priced using MOPS for our region.
Paddy = Crude Oil Price
Cooked Rice = MOPS Price

REF
Facts About the Australian Retail Fuels Market and Prices
UNDERSTANDING PETROL PRICES IN SINGAPORE.
Interim Findings From CCS's Retail Petrol Study

Symbol reference:
▲◆▼

This post has been edited by isr25: Nov 29 2018, 08:43 AM
adamhzm90
post Feb 22 2017, 10:03 AM

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thumbs up
IpohLad
post Feb 22 2017, 11:02 AM

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RM2.5 per litre from 1st March.
isr25
post Feb 22 2017, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(adamhzm90 @ Feb 22 2017, 10:03 AM)
thumbs up
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Thanks! Hope the spreadsheet helps you!

QUOTE(IpohLad @ Feb 22 2017, 11:02 AM)
RM2.5 per litre from 1st March.
*
Seriously bro... Don't just quote figures... Do you have a source where you're getting the RM2.5/l? This is F&F and not /k. Hopefully you will learn something on how the fuel price is calculated using the link above smile.gif

This post has been edited by isr25: Feb 22 2017, 11:11 AM
lsm1991
post Feb 22 2017, 11:24 AM

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tenkyu abang!!! do update if there are any changes!!!
theanswer
post Feb 22 2017, 11:41 AM

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useful thread. hahah jangan buat betting pulak
theanswer
post Feb 22 2017, 11:41 AM

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useful thread. hahah jangan buat betting pulak
isr25
post Feb 22 2017, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(lsm1991 @ Feb 22 2017, 11:24 AM)
tenkyu abang!!! do update if there are any changes!!!
*
I'm updating it on a daily basis (or 2 days at the latest smile.gif) so you can check whenever.

But really, you only need to check it at the end of the month - or the last few days of the month, just to get a feel of next month's price.

I'll update the first post if there are any changes thumbsup.gif

This post has been edited by isr25: Feb 22 2017, 11:44 AM
lsm1991
post Feb 22 2017, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(isr25 @ Feb 22 2017, 11:41 AM)
I'm updating it on a daily basis (or 2 days at the latest smile.gif) so you can check whenever.

But really, you only need to check it at the end of the month - or the last few days of the month, just to get a feel of next month's price.

I'll update the first post if there are any changes thumbsup.gif
*
bagus bagus.... this way i can decide if i can tekan or if i should abandon my car somewhere and walk home.
TamashiiHeroes
post Feb 22 2017, 11:55 AM

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abang ,mana u find out the genius make top confidential formula ? lol
rcracer
post Feb 22 2017, 11:59 AM

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Up 10 cents
dirtrun
post Feb 22 2017, 12:03 PM

Look at all my stars!!
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QUOTE(isr25 @ Feb 22 2017, 11:41 AM)
I'm updating it on a daily basis (or 2 days at the latest smile.gif) so you can check whenever.

But really, you only need to check it at the end of the month - or the last few days of the month, just to get a feel of next month's price.

I'll update the first post if there are any changes thumbsup.gif
*
Bros,

This is a calculated estimation of the future price of fuel..
Its not to 'guess' the next price increase.. smile.gif
isr25
post Feb 22 2017, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(TamashiiHeroes @ Feb 22 2017, 11:55 AM)
abang ,mana u find out the genius make top confidential formula ? lol
*
It's not confidential, just that the sources is hard to find. I credit 2 sources for me to find out how they actually calculate

http://etp.pemandu.gov.my/Related_Stories-...oil_prices.aspx
https://taizeekin.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/...price-yourself/

A fight with an idiot on FB early this month, made me calculate the fuel price myself to shut the idiot up rolleyes.gif Now I'm doing it just for fun, and for my own info since I pump RON97 (MOGAS97 is harder to find - last update was end of last year... sad.gif)

Take the historical values with a pinch of salt, as I didn't start to keep track the daily MOGAS95 prices until Feb 2017.

QUOTE(dirtrun @ Feb 22 2017, 12:03 PM)
Bros,

This is a calculated estimation of the future price of fuel..
Its not to 'guess' the next price increase.. smile.gif
*
Yes, this is not a guesstimate. It's a calculated estimation - but the government may still price it higher or lower depending on whether they want to give some subsidy, or get some more money tongue.gif
lsm1991
post Feb 22 2017, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(isr25 @ Feb 22 2017, 12:15 PM)
It's not confidential, just that the sources is hard to find. I credit 2 sources for me to find out how they actually calculate

http://etp.pemandu.gov.my/Related_Stories-...oil_prices.aspx
https://taizeekin.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/...price-yourself/

A fight with an idiot on FB early this month, made me calculate the fuel price myself to shut the idiot up rolleyes.gif Now I'm doing it just for fun, and for my own info since I pump RON97 (MOGAS97 is harder to find - last update was end of last year... sad.gif)

Take the historical values with a pinch of salt, as I didn't start to keep track the daily MOGAS95 prices until Feb 2017.
Yes, this is not a guesstimate. It's a calculated estimation - but the government may still price it higher or lower depending on whether they want to give some subsidy, or get some more money tongue.gif
*
ehh.. if you are already calculating 97, might as well and include it!!!
isr25
post Feb 22 2017, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(lsm1991 @ Feb 22 2017, 12:27 PM)
ehh.. if you are already calculating 97, might as well and include it!!!
*
The chart is RON95. I am using RON97, but couldn't find a free source to calculate it like RON95. The free source only provided the MOGAS97 information until 15 Dec 2016, and it suddenly stopped... Unless I pay for the updated daily figures (which I find silly for a personal hobby) I can't find any (free) source at the moment...

Anyway, the RON95 price is already a good indicator whether RON97 goes up or down or thereabouts.
lsm1991
post Feb 22 2017, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(isr25 @ Feb 22 2017, 12:31 PM)
The chart is RON95. I am using RON97, but couldn't find a free source to calculate it like RON95. The free source only provided the MOGAS97 information until 15 Dec 2016, and it suddenly stopped... Unless I pay for the updated daily figures (which I find silly for a personal hobby) I can't find any (free) source at the moment...

Anyway, the RON95 price is already a good indicator whether RON97 goes up or down or thereabouts.
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thats true... alright, thx again!!! laugh.gif rclxm9.gif rclxms.gif
mytaffeta
post Feb 22 2017, 12:56 PM

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thanks abang civic..
SKY233
post Feb 22 2017, 01:41 PM

u x sukak u keluar
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thanks.. good thread.... will visit it everytime laugh.gif
19 Degree South
post Feb 22 2017, 03:14 PM

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Forsee up another 15 cents! Lots of 'goodies' ' were handed out by bee end in the Sarawak by election!
BuncitPesonawan
post Feb 22 2017, 03:18 PM

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sempoi lah abang, thanks thumbsup.gif

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