Mkt rates traders and bond prices are estimating a highest cut of only 50 basis points, or 0.5% cut,... 100 bps cut will surely kena lots of loan defaults in 1 year from now,.... but, well,... I'm speaking only from basic economic theory,...


Emm,... yeah... Unemployment Data and Jobs Added Numbers are continuing to beat expectations,.. BUT,.. who knows, maybe they're fiddling with the expected numbers,... HOwever,.. why is the Inflation Number not going up ? Again, speaking from basic economic theory....

He said : Insurance Cut. Good job numbers BUT still cut,... first in history,...


He learnt from his 'tactic' two years ago when he lowered the income tax rates for the corporations, and that got some good earnings numbers coming out from the corporates. Consumer Confidence Number rose, The Michigan Institute said a lot of good things. But that euphoria has died down,.. Now he wants to employ the same tactic again.

Anyway, Mr Kudlow said White Hse said no payroll tax cut anymore....

Then blondie said maybe implement no capital gains tax,....

Might as well say no 30% dividend tax for NRA investors,....


7% ? High chance of default when FTSE Russell pulls out Msian Sovereign Bonds from its index,...

So,... who is to say China is not developing their GPS further ???

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech...han-US-original

Utico (an infrastructure asset company based in The UAE) has taken an 88% stake (if my memory serves me correctly),... let's see how much this will help the Preference Shares and Perp Securities holders,... let's see if Hyflux is able to pull itself out of this mess,.... and how much it can salvage back for these holders,..

This gauging is important to observe, with this, we will now what happens when such a company like this fail again in future,.. which is, quite rare for this to happen.

Yeah bro,... there has been many changes and many news regarding initiatives at Hyflux. LOts of numbers and calculations here and there. Even inveortors in SG who attended the town hall mtgs are also confused - they are just eaoting to see how much they will get back.

A few years ago, when I saw the 6% being offered by the Hyflux Preps, I was tempted too. But,... gut feel told me not to touch this, don;t know why,... hence, did not buy,...fortunately,...

Today, I am watching this to see how this would turn out. With this experience, we will be able to 'guesstimate' how an event like this will turn out in future. This is important. SG does not fail much in this way,.. but things still do happen,... it's okay, just one GLC failing like this,..

Unlike in neighbouring Kangkong Land,... But Kangkong Land has gov't bailout - still okay, I guessed,... but then not fair to taxpayers-lar,...

Yes - in terms of seniority of loans, these holders would be quite low at the hierarchy ! Let's see,... I can't comment too much,... BUT,... I hoped the mgmt will do something for these holders,... then we will understand the governance there,....

There is one precedence - everytime a recession hits, central banks would start to initiate a low interest rate environment in their jurisdiction to counter the recession. And everytime a low interest rate environment creeps in slowly, the economy would improve gradually.

So,... today, the US Feds start to put in insurance cuts !,... which means starting to initiate the low interest rate environment BEFORE an actual recession hits. Many other central banks in the world are starting to follow this cut, and hence, starting to cut their own policy rates.

We are now in front of the curve !

Actually, bro,... for this person in the following, a recession is really a godsend for him to enter more into the mkt :-

1) he has personal funds 'WAITING' in FD or low-risk instruments waiting to be deployed, AND/OR....

2) he has entered into the mkt earlier at large margins-of-safety, ie with very low holding prices and is looking to average-up for more returns.

Without a recession, at today's prices, there is just no way to go in safely anymore,...

The US Manufacturing Data shrinking shown last night is A Start ! Whatever tariffs put in place last year and this year needed time to trickle down into the rest of the economy,...

When I woke up this morning and saw this piece of data,... this alerted me to the fact that finally, the data has arrived. Everything has been great and better for so many months and years,...

Somehow, in today's environment, I wouldn't depend on this 2y10y yield inversion reading anymore,... MOre people are buying into 10y bonds and Tresuries because there is just too much low-cost money around, and there is nowhere deemed safe to put them.

Hence, park into the longest yield instruments, which are deemed as the SAFEST instruments of today.

In the earlier days, when bank interest rates were not this low, then acceptance rates of 2y and 10y instruments may be a good indicator because people needed to think carefully where to put their non-infinite funds for acceptable returns. Even then, the recession prediction may only come true after years,.. it could be a fluke,..

Anyway, things are much different today,... there are too much funds around.

BBerg reported this morning POTUS said if he gets re-elected for the second term next year, negotiations will be even tougher for China,... so how ? Looks like he thinks the Americans still preferred to have the trade war, right ? ... since he dared to declare this,....

Maybe US POTUS and Chinese Premier 'pakat' to make money,... hehehe,...

Sorry to hear this, bro,...

Emm,... I look at it this way, bros,...

Using the top eg,... and staying with a fixed rate bond as eg,... not floating rate bond,...

Bond X, when first launched, declares RM6 as the coupon amt for every year till maturity. The par value is RM100.

When times are good, people sell bonds to buy equities, hence demand drops, price drops to, say RM101, coupon amt of RM6 remains, yield goes up to 6/101 = 5.94%.

When times are bad, people sell equities to buy bonds, hence demand rises, price increases to, say RM103, coupon amt remains at RM6, yield then goes down to 6/103 = 5.83%.

Times are good, bond yield goes up.

Times are bad, bond yield goes down.

I have been watching India too since the elections and Mr Modi's win. The policy rate was lowered and corp tax rates were cut,... looks like a lot of stimulus in Mr Modi's gov't,...

My proxy to the India mkt is from the ctr, Ascendas India Trust in the SGX,... AND,...the price has been rising,...

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/CY6U.SI#eyJ...nQifX19fQ%3D%3D

Ok,... sure,.. I was comparing the RM101 against the RM103. We can use the bond price being sold even BELOW the par value too,... sure.

But,... unfortunately,... for the bonds I have been watching to go in to,... I really have no chance to buy-in below par value. THe most, is the bond price drops back very near to the par value.

Hence, I will never be able to enjoy the security of a safe (and slightly profitable) redemption without risks of default and extension,...

No luck in bonds for myself,... I guessed,... just sharing here,...

But I did not hear any incentives announced, unlike last year,... did anybody hear any incentives at all please ?

Ok,... That lowering of threshold is for residential property only, right ?

He can always say that China has again 'reneged' on this agreement and is unwilling to sign now. He can do this anytime, between now and November.

Yeah, the Dow hitting past 27k points again - due to good results from US Banks and United Health reported early this morning. Start of US Earnings season now.

Yes, many fund mgrs are advising this now,... take some profits every now and then in these times.