Algozen version four speaketh; listen well...(The values are now in MYR correlation).
I tried putting in various UTF(s) into Algozen and letting her run the numbers. Maximum per simulation run is ten UTFs. Anything more, is limited by the correlation coefficient parameters.
The criteria for selecting UTFs for simulations are:
1) Good risk to reward ratio among peers.
2) They must have poor correlation among each other (meaning must be well diversified)
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The UTFs I used to run the simulation are:
1) KGF representing home ground
2) TA GTF
3) CIMB Titan
4) Eastspring Dinasti representing Greater China
5) Esther Bond
6) RHB EMB representing bonds
7) Manulife India
8) TA Europe
9) AMReits
10) RHB AIF representing Asia Pac ex Japan broad market
If I do not put those into the simulation it means those UTFs do not satisfy the above three criteria.
Next step, after running twelve simulated portfolios, ranging from port that generate 8% to 20% p.a. , out of 12 ports,
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KGF consistently appears in all twelve simulated ports
India appears in 4 out of 12 simulated ports
Reits appears in 11 out of 12 simulated ports
TA GTF appears in 12 out of 12 simulated ports
Esther Bond appears in 7 out of 12 simulated ports
RHB EMB appears in 10 out of 12 simulated ports
Those not mention means they do not appear even once in the simulated portfolios, meaning I can take away them to narrow down my port selection even further.
To be continued...
The ports that I have run simulation gave the highest possible return to be 21% (100% TA-GTF) and the lowest possible return is 7% (100% Esther Bond). Hence the whole spectrum of return is from 7 to 21%. As expected the higher the return the higher the risk aka std - deviation. After running 12 times with various composition of portfolios, I find that the most risk optimal point is around the 10, 11, 12 and 13% point.
Let's take 13% as the expected return. In order to get 13% the composition of UTFs are as below.
KGF @ 15%
REITs @ 10%
TA-GTF @ 25%
Esther Bond @ 30%
RHB EMB @ 20%.
Std - deviation of this portfolio is 4.41% and the risk to reward ratio is 13/4.41 = 2.95.
Xuzen
I guess I will be buying into TA GTF now..