UT funds are bought based on their Master Prospectus... which states what the fund is about, how it is invested and how it is managed. So now, because of a market crash, you expect the fund manager to pandai-pandai ignore the prospectus and do as he likes?

Obviously it is silly to sell "in the event of a market crash"... as it would be too late to exit - even for the professional fund manager watching the markets every moves.

The question is can you trust any fund manager who pandai-pandai pull out and move a large chunk of the money to cash because he thinks a market crash or pullback will likely to happen in the near future, maybe next week or next month - while most of the UT investors are at the moment purchasing equity funds and jumping onto the bandwagon due to FOMO (fear of losing out) that the rally will push prices higher and higher, and they have to get in now before it is too late.

"Subsequently, what will happen if they do so?" Not going to happen... the fund manager has to stick to the fund's policy.

Lastly, there are dynamic funds that can go 2% to 98% in equities... select these funds if you want to... but bear in mind, the fund manager is no superman or has a crystal ball, hence most UT investors woud prefer to hold as much of equity funds as they like to instead of handling the control over to the fund manager.

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P.S. "... the fund manager has to stick to the fund's policy"... if there is any massive sell-off, it happens because it is the UT investors who are selling and forcing the fund manager to liquidate the equities.




This post has been edited by j.passing.by: Feb 26 2018, 02:06 PM

There are 2 types of returns - fund's return and investor's return.

Funds' performances are usually reported for the whole month or quarter or year; ie. Jan, Feb, etc.

An investor gets a slightly different performance from the fund's performance if he buys into the fund at various times, or he buys into the fund mid of the month... thus having his own statistic from mid-of-the-month to mid-of-the-month. Plus he might also includes the service/sales charges into the ROI.

To add on...

Got to be aware that some are not 'peers' and in the same focus on the same market... IDS seems to be in the ACE market, not small cap... ACE and KLTECh index is not the same as small cap index... at the moment, KLTE -2.09%, ACE -1.34%. smallcap -1.22%, KLCI +0.02%.

Talking about 'montioring' is easy talk... the newbie investor could be looking at a Formula1 race, and thinks that there are many faster cars passing the car coming out of the pitstop.

Just like looking at the indices at this hour, smallcap so volatile at -1% while KLCI is 0.02% and positive.... so we should only consider large cap funds.

Seem to me, there are several short term traders looking for fast money and fast returns... and sharing their experinces here... all the advices on long term regular investments whether DCA or VA will be lost on them.

To them, more info and advices in this thread on when to buy and when to sell, and what funds to buy will be more appropriate and welcome.

Just get to the chase... it is time to load on small-caps and IDS. YTD, it is already down more than 6%...



=========

KLCI just shot up to 0.46%...

Those long (and windy) posts are more for other silent readers. They are posted in the other thread by design… chatty posts in this thread.

The ‘noobs’ you could be referring to are not really newbies but ‘veterans’… open forum, open to everyone to voice whatever they want to say.

Some want to do it fast and furious in several months… some do it slow and steady.

Hey, seeking fast returns of 6-7% in 6 months can be more satisfying than getting 7-8% in 12 months.

That's why must have ample "unlimited" money to do casino way of double-down after each fail bet.

Let's see... 4 corrections in recent months... 2x.. 4x... 8x.. 16 times!

If the initial bet is 1k, 30k is needed to standby and cover the bet!

No wonder rich folks like you are getting richer and richer!

You could try looking at the moving average of the related indices to the fund... currently, HSI is below its MA 20 and MA 50, and had just bounce off MA 100 last friday...

But anything can happen too... past performance has no bearing on future performance...but then again, the safest method is still 'buying the dip' and holding off at the peak since the markets are more volatile than usual in recent weeks... sort of a very rough ball park style VA.

That is if you are still in the accumulation stage of building up to your portfolio's targeted amount.

It is also advisable to be cautious and don’t be too impatient and greedy… just continue with whatever DCA or VA regular purchases as planned.

(MA100 is a support level… if it is breached, the index could drop very sharply…)

To be on a moderate side during period of high volatility, balanced funds could be considered. Also local large cap funds.

Be aware that some funds, though having KLCI as their benchmarks in their prospectus, are not truly large cap funds. They could be mostly in small-cap equities if they are very volatile with high gains and losses.

If not mistaken, some small cap funds dropped more than 15% in mid 2016 before gaining back some ground and ending the year about -7%.

There is also this opinion piece that it is already a bear market with the peak in January and it will continue sliding till March 2019, losing all the gains made last year.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-m...018-03-27/print

If it is true, it would be good for those still in the accumulation stage of building their nest egg.

Hey
Oh take it
Bite the dust
Bite the dust
Hey
Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust oww
Another one bites the dust hey hey
Another one bites the dust eh eh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY0WxgSXdEE

Plus EPF has tax relief too... which is double the amount of PRS?

In comparing PRS to a normal UT fund... if normal UT fund is not found satisfactory in the returns for the risk taken, then PRS is found wanting too. The tax relief and the 1k incentive is just one time upfront benefits - which is just gains on paper since we can't hold and rub it between our fingers; similar to the shiok feeling of buying UT funds during promotions on service charge discounts.

During a market downturn, if people are stress out on holding UT funds, it would be more stressful for those holding PRS and don't fully understood their initial objective of putting their money/savings into these financial vehicles except to gain the tax relief.

There is a possiblity that PRS is dying a slow death if majority of those who are into PRS are solely for the tax relief, and if and when there is no more incentives or tax relief...

Just my 2 cents.

Well, it could be of some importance because the max and min nav are stated too. Otherwise why bother to state them in the fact sheets if not important?

=======

Seriously, yes... the nav can be kept in a tight range if income distributions are done more frequently.

It is bad to use it to gauge volatility. It is meaningless data. To the uninitiated, it could leads to thinking that it is a buying opportunity when the nav is at the lower end of the min/max range.

There is tax relief if you continue to purchase PRS every year. It is a one time benefit for the same invested money... since you don't get tax relief on the same invested money every year.

Conservative funds... that gives lower return than EPF? Please la, read through the previous posts.

"passed on to your kids" has various meanings and implications. AFAIK, you can't transfer EPF to another person. Highly likely it is the same with PRS and those fixed-priced funds. This is the reason why I still advocate holding a portfolio of normal UT funds over PRS.

Semua pun mau!

(If one have the money.)

Yes, it is tough reading those posts comparing this and that... as if they are exclusive to each other. If you hold UT, you must exclusively put all your money into UT!

well, in my recent reply a few pages (or more than a few?) back, the market could be on a slippery slop till April 2019.

Continue on if you are still in the initial phase of building up a retirement nest egg. as it is mostly those who are in the next phase with a sizeable nest egg who are bull-shittiing here with their/our spiels on moving from one fund to another... doing last minute "timings" to preserve their/our wealth when feeling kiasi, and chasing growth and outperformance when feeling kiasu.

Just telling you the option available la... that's the difference between normal UT funds and others.

missed this movement yesterday as was not monitoring the index... the small cap I'm holding dropped nearly 4%. YTD nearly -16%.

I think the index will more or less go sideways till well after the general election after everything got settle down, maybe till Aug or Sept or later... then will go dramatically up or down depending on whatever global events are happening at that time.

Small cap index hit new low last week... swing 5% into a small-midcap fund yesterday after noting the index stopped falling... maybe due to all the election pledges.

The index really jumps today, up 2.67% at the moment... KLTech +4.71%, ACE +3.87%.

Since the sharp fall on Wednesday last week, the fund had gained back 6%. And small cap index is +1% today.

There was a recent post on missing out the best 10 days... well, it don't have to be 10 days, missing out the best 3 days would make a big difference. It could mean pushing the overall annual growth of a so-so 7% to 12%, or 10% to a greater 15%.

When kena hit and did not escape the downfall, better to stay put and wait and ride out the volatility.

Jumping out to jump in again could miss out the best days.

Stay invested.

That's quite an aggressive portolio. You might have also put in lots of fresh investments at the end of last year and in January, at the peak.

My port was positive in Jan and April. YTD is about -2%.

Funds having positive YTDs are those in the Asean region (pulled up by STI) and those in KLCI. The index in major downtrend to watch at the moment is Indonesia. Rupiah also going weak compare to ringgit...

Good that you know that it is not easy to time the investments like a pro... so we do the next best thing: spread out the investments as long as possible, in as many times as possible. Chances are that 50% will be well timed, 50% not.

Say if the total amount to invest or to save is 100k... then spread the 100k into 100 months or many more months with 1k or less every month.

Then you will also see the reason to hold and not sell... since you are going to increase the investment every month and will be buying more nest month.

It will then be very fickle to sell this month, when there is a plan to buy more next month.

Unless of course, you know for sure what will happen next week or month... so you sell first then buy back again. Which bring us back to the start of this post...

This post has been edited by j.passing.by: May 3 2018, 04:16 PM

"... in the end, I might even making loses?"

Unit trust funds are long term investments... you are investing for the future, the next 10 or 20 or 30 years... if you believe the future is bright and the world is growing and developing at a steady pace, and people and society will be more civilise and richer in life and financially ... it is difficult to imagine that the equities of the best run companies and corporations of the world will not expand, and the value of their stocks will not grow.

In the end, chances are very likely that there won't be any losses. The only matter of concern is how profitable is the investment. What will be the effective rate of returns?

================

About effective rate of returns or IRR... most tend to forget that the IRR of any investment begins the moment you received any money and holding it in your hand.

If you are holding it in cash for donkey years, the IRR is zero for donkey years...

If you put it in FD or an savings account in the bank, the rate of interest you receive is the IRR... for donkey years.

Say, you have waited and waited for the right time or year to invest into UT... guess what is the IRR after donkey years in cash or FD, and after transferring the cash or FD to an UT investment in the first year?

Not to mention the lost of opportunity in the donkey years of minor growth, although minor but still higher than FD interest...

Another thing about IRR is that it gets more and more stable after each passing year... after many, many moons, and if the fund gets hit by a big drop of several percentages... the IRR hardly moves.


(And in each dip and crash, the long time investor will be unfazed by the dip when he looks at the overall ROI and its IRR. He might even be thinking of taking advantage of the dip and investing more... )

You can try putting it into a conservative fund first, like a local large caps fund, or a money market fund. (Bond funds seem like going down in the near term.) Then switch into the target fund on selected days when its benchmark index is in the red... divide the switches into 3 separate months unless you know for certain that the fund and its benchmark index is on the uptrend for the next 3 months.

- Don't hold the conservative fund more than 3 months. It would be better to draw less than the permitted amount from Account 1 and withdraw again in 3 months time.

- The target fund should be a foreign fund and an aggressive growth fund. Since the aim of withdrawing out of EPF is to have this batch of money to perform better than EPF. Take the risk.

This post has been edited by j.passing.by: May 16 2018, 02:22 PM