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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V20

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wild_card_my
post Jul 23 2018, 06:19 PM

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QUOTE(scorptim @ Jul 23 2018, 05:54 PM)
If only this was 2 months earlier...damn la. Already bought another unit in nearby area and out of funds now 😭
Depends on how many units on lelong for that particular development. Most of the time it won’t impact much because you don’t get that many lelong units for the same development. I love buying these type of units coz the market price usually still maintains.

Of course there are exceptions when a development got too many lelong units like M city *cough**cough* too many lelong units confirm market price will come down.
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Thanks for the input thumbsup.gif

QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Jul 23 2018, 05:55 PM)
NAPIC and Brickz not taking lelong transaction into their data. Or developer units also not recorded.
Valuer if need to place a unit will not be able to access the data of the sold transaction via lelong.
Still will be benchmark to actual subsale transaction.

Certain area yes lelong coz not able to sell or rent out such as:
- Cyberjaya especially studio unit.
- Buying overprice highrise property such as M City, Icon City, Central Residence. Even able to rent out at market price also will not be able to help the owner much.
- Landed property at ulu places such as M Residence 2, Ceri Hillpark Puncak Alam, Bandar Tasik Puteri (Garden Heights/Acacia Park), Saujana Rawang, Semenyih or Sendayan. Here need big holding power.
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I stand corrected, thanks for the input.

Where can I get these lelong units transaction prices though?

So much to learn from you property sifus.
wild_card_my
post Jul 27 2018, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jul 27 2018, 12:14 AM)
So is it a good time to buy now? When should be a good time to buy?
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Just buy anytime you are ready, with the right "boosters" you will never go wrong. The problem with people that bought properties "wrongly" was that they bought because of other factors such as peer-pressure and deceitful marketing. If you can pass through all that, then you are good to go.
wild_card_my
post Sep 1 2018, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 1 2018, 11:35 PM)
Due to national land code, landed (with tiltle issued) need high court permission for every round of auction. Hence, price takes longer to drop and sold. Also mean until it is sold, borrower is incurring loan interest at penalty rate.
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How do we keep track of the number of rounds a property has gone through auctions?
wild_card_my
post Sep 8 2018, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(Timespace @ Sep 8 2018, 03:33 AM)
I think and hope new Malaysia would be more strict, some flippers might not be able jaggle eventually...
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From what I noticed flippers are already having a hard time. Due to government initiatives like PRIMA, RumaWIP, and SelangorKu, lower-middle end buyers are having an easier time to secure a roof on their head.

As it is, they may be contend with what they have (800 sq ft close to the city with good access), and may spend their money else where.

QUOTE(azmanadnan @ Sep 8 2018, 06:20 AM)
By right when economy recovers house prices will be uptrend right
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Not necessarily. Demand and supply plays a role. A house is a necessity, but in people's opinion, an 800sq ft. may be sufficient - and there are plenty of supplies for these types of houses now. Despite economic recoveries, people may turn to other things to spend their money on, like children's education, retirement, insurances; and other lifestyle choices like travelling, food/dining. Those with excess cash may invest in properties but it has such a high entry-cost (10% deposit, legal fees) as well as hidden-costs (agent fees, insurances, maintenance, bad tenant) that they may turn many away

Can you believe it? I myself prefer to put my money into more liquid funds like UT and stocks.

I am sure there are gems out there, but it isn't as easy and sure-fire as it was in pre-2010 where you can just throw any stone and buy that property the stone hits and it would have appreciated a few tens percentage points.
wild_card_my
post Sep 11 2018, 12:21 PM

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QUOTE(azmanadnan @ Sep 8 2018, 01:29 PM)
True that  for now I do have cash in Asnb. Probably keep it in first? But I prefer new landed rather than sub sales. Scared landed new launches will be further n further away from kl
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For those who are not sure about the property market going forward, of have done very little studies, and if the are able to, to invest in ASB and holding out for the time being, this is because ASB and/or ASB-financing can be redeemed at a moment's notice (well, takes about a month for the ASB-financed units to be redeemed). But it is liquid in that sense, better than your money sitting and not doing anything.

Since, you have bought properties and I am sure that you are aware of the hidden fees, upfront charges, and lack of liquidity of these properties. I know people who are in a limbo, whereby their property MV is now lower than their O/S, meaning they cannot sell without topping up to pay the differences. And their rentals are significantly lower than their costs of maintaining the property (installments, maintenance, taxes, insurance, damages), and not to mention the rental gaps between renters

Now they are stuck forever. This is why I hate the mantra "accumulate wealth by buying properties". Every investment vehicles have their pros and cons, its just that people tend to be conned into buying properties - thank you real estate agents.

Just so you know, I work for all 3 - mortgage, asb-f, and am a REN

And yet my advice is always to study your needs, will-power, investment horizon, before making a life-changing decision like buying a property or insurance. These decisions last forever even if you get to refinance/sell the property due to the upfront charges and missed opportunities.

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 9 2018, 09:44 AM)
Many of demand during property bull run was created from "loan compression", basically cheating the system and subprime. Wonder how many of these remain in the Eco system?
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Yeah, loan compression is subprime. When the bank deems you unworthy to get those financing buy you did anyways by cheating the system, you are a subprime. This is illegal but sometimes the bankers would not know because the applicants would be doing this on their own by making multiple submissions with different banks and bankers on their own. When I see multiple applications in their CCRIS and inquire them about it, they would sometimes admit to it, but those who didn't I would not know.

This post has been edited by wild_card_my: Sep 11 2018, 12:31 PM
wild_card_my
post Sep 19 2018, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 19 2018, 05:24 PM)
Will consider when blood is knees deep on the floor.
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"the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets" Baron Rothschild
wild_card_my
post Sep 20 2018, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Sep 19 2018, 09:20 PM)
Do you agree that those who buy back in 2012 or 2013 or even 2014... most likely they are still earning a profit by selling off the property at s lower price than last year?

Assuming back then rm250k ... then peak at 550k.. now so called drop 80k become 470k...

So will you buy now if price drops to 470k or you think it will further drop to 300k?

I am quoting real life case here...  if you buy back then ... and hold till now... even with drop in price... it is still quite a decent profit ... there are still transactions and still got buy/sell activities... I don't even see the price drop even 20% at those hot locations...
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Arguments should be made with statistics, not isolated cases. You can cherry pick any "real-life cases" out there.
wild_card_my
post Sep 21 2018, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(koja6049 @ Sep 21 2018, 01:34 PM)
don't need to agree, as the property value will speak for itself.

World trends:

1. close to amenities, like MRT, malls, financial centres, any services to make life easier
2. close to education centres, like universities, colleges, international schools. Rich student's parents can rent or even buy for their kids.
3. close to industrial areas, prefably high tech industries. High tech workers can afford high rents or even buy at high prices.
4. Close to touristy areas, like beaches, mountains, etc. Airbnb is inflating property prices, and some property is snapped by by foreigners as second homes.
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you are talking about "nodes". These are known, but there are arguments about which nodes are important. Otherwise people can blindly follow these nodes and make a bank, alas the downtrun has shown that the nodes are just one piece of the puzzle.

"Location x3" is just a mantra. Area study has still to be made.
wild_card_my
post Sep 27 2018, 02:04 PM

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btw, any idea "how" the property prices would bounce back?

Other than supply and demand that is.. perhaps elaborate? Maybe a boom in the younger workforce? better economies? Are we facing this down trend for decades?
wild_card_my
post Sep 27 2018, 11:13 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 27 2018, 11:12 PM)
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter-point Wednesday and officials indicated the central bank is highly likely to hike rates again in December and three more times next year, bucking President Trump’s request to hold off.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/201...m=.3628235e032f

How much bnm will follow?
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how closely has BNM followed FR in the past?
wild_card_my
post Sep 27 2018, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 27 2018, 11:28 PM)
BNM track fed rate subject to MYR exchange rate and market liquidity.
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Perhaps I get the idea on "subject to MYR exchange rate" part, but can you elaborate a little on "market liquidity"? In relation to our OPR to the FR rate that is.

This post has been edited by wild_card_my: Sep 27 2018, 11:36 PM
wild_card_my
post Sep 28 2018, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Sep 28 2018, 11:38 AM)
For own stay ok lar. Rm120k for corner house though 12 years ago. Still within means. But its Rm800-900k for a DS terrace now near Aeon Rawang. You really have to be kidding me to pay so much for a house in Rawang.  sweat.gif
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Prices will drop regardless right? new development agents are having a hard time. I mean, used to be that the developers wont even engage property agents to sell the houses. but to cut cost (overhead of employees, marketing), they decided agents are the way to go.
wild_card_my
post Sep 28 2018, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Sep 28 2018, 12:04 PM)
Not really. I see a lot of developers are engaging property agents or agencies to help sell their houses once they failed to sell themselves after a certain period of time, by giving them massive discounts and incentives to do so. Prospective buyers could definately squeeze these agents for discounts once thats the case.
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Doesn't make sense though. These agents are driven by money. When you ad another middleman into the transaction, you would increase the price of the property, not reduce them.


wild_card_my
post Sep 30 2018, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(Suarez23 @ Sep 29 2018, 08:25 PM)
Sell so low and yet you still owe bank and you still need to repay bank the remaining.. What's the theory on this? Can someone enlighten me?
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laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

Those are lelong units. They are unable to repay the installments so the banks exercised their power of attorney to force-sell the unit. Unfortunately, even the banks can't sell it to cover the principal outstanding, and the difference still has to be paid back by the borrower.


wild_card_my
post Oct 1 2018, 10:14 PM

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QUOTE(Starbucki @ Oct 1 2018, 09:11 PM)
so only if the (ex) owner cant repay the balance, he can be declared a bankrupt?
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Yes, as far as I understood from the thread, the ex owners can be chased for the difference and can be sued to bankruptcy by the creditors.
wild_card_my
post Dec 6 2018, 07:40 AM

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QUOTE(zenix @ Dec 5 2018, 06:34 PM)
rclxms.gif how many casualties?
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I would say that all the owners of empty units that got auctioned off at 30% less than the purchase price are the casualties...
wild_card_my
post Dec 12 2018, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 12 2018, 10:12 AM)
Unless remaining lease is short e.g. >60 years, risks is similar as freehold. But than price would be equivalent to long term rental price.
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From my experience for bumiputra buyers there are risks that your application to transfer the lease to a non-bumiputra would be rejected by the state government. No problem that I know of for non-bumi to transfer to either a bumi or a non-bumi.
wild_card_my
post Dec 12 2018, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Dec 12 2018, 12:53 PM)
Is better for bumi buyer to just get freehold units to save up the future trouble.
Correct?
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Yeap, that's how I understand it too. The comments above about difficulty to transfer the lease from Bumi to Non-bumi came from the lawyers that I engage with (I have to deal with them for my clients' conveyancing needs). These are the people that do it on a daily basis (as opposed to talking crap).


wild_card_my
post Dec 12 2018, 01:02 PM

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QUOTE(zerorating @ Dec 12 2018, 12:59 PM)
not really, PBT could said that bumi qouta not fulfilled, can only sell to bumi
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??? i was referring to subsale though. I may have misunderstood your comment, can you rephrase?
wild_card_my
post Dec 12 2018, 01:15 PM

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QUOTE(zerorating @ Dec 12 2018, 01:11 PM)
subsale la, there are few case that some request to transfer non-bumi leasehold land to another non-bumi got denied, thats one of the reason why alot of people stick with freehold land only.
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Yeah, well I am sure when they say "dengan pihak berkuasa negeri" the negeri would have power to deny the transfer. But my point is that it is much more likely for a transfer from bumi-leasehold to non-bumi-leasehold to be blocked by the state

It goes without saying that a freehold would be preferable, but for bumis, the disadvantage is much more apparent when buying leasehold, their secondary-market would be severely limited. Not so much for non-bumi-leasehold transfer to non-bumi, it may happen, sure but not as bad.

As I mentioned above, these are from conveyancing lawyers, so I'd take their word

This post has been edited by wild_card_my: Dec 12 2018, 01:17 PM

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