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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V20

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wild_card_my
post Jun 11 2018, 01:03 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jun 11 2018, 12:53 PM)
Your effort to find a good property is once off. You don't buy and sell. You buy and hold throughout your life. That's how the rich make money. It is proven. There is no liquidity problem because you don't sell! You enjoy the fruits by collecting rental..u don't kill the cow..u milk it. All costs are subsidised by tenants. Of course, one is sitting on fat profits if they buy before bull run. However, now is also a good time to buy from subsale...dun wait for another bull and lament that you should have bought earlier...
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one-off

1. You need to constantly find good tenants, unlikely for a residential tenant to stay for decades... there would be lapses in rental income in between tenants.

2. A lot of investments are proven. They are also proven to lose money through capitaldepreciation/loss-of-value, damanges, etc.

3. Liquidity is not a problem, it is an advantage... you don't sell for losses, you sell because there may be other opportunities out there for you to invest in, so if 2 investments give similar economic output but one is liquid, while the other is not, then you better off choose the liquid

4. Timing is everything, other investment bull run is much more frequent, which also means you can cash-out more frequently

This post has been edited by wild_card_my: Jun 11 2018, 01:03 PM
wild_card_my
post Jun 11 2018, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jun 11 2018, 01:43 PM)
1. Lapses in between tenancy is part and parcel of renting out. It is the same everywhere. Commercial and industrial can be considered also for longer tenancy.

2. Only properties are proven long term appreciating IN GENERAL. You see moms and pops got burned playing shares? Plenty. Guess where they made their money? Thats right - many are multi millionaires who grew their wealth from owning shops, factories, land and link houses. The chances of losing is minimal compared to stocks.

3. Liquid can also be a disadvantage. Many are too smart and get in and out because it is liquid. That is how they cannot build wealth.

4. Cash out more frequently? Ha ha..ring a bell?
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1. Just pointing it out, that rentals are not always consistent although many investors pretend them as it is a given to get rentals 12 months a year for 10 years

2. Things have changed now, people are buying things online, whatever the market was 30 years ago is not the same anymore now. Once everyone has a house to live in due to the adequate supply of houses, whom would you be renting your property to?

3. Many multi-millionaires who grew their wealth from <insert-any-successful-investments here>? Get it?

4. Yes, and being illiquid is a definite advantage. What is your point again?

5. You are so against liquidity that you are mocking the idea of cashing out when it is suitable. Liquidity is an advantage for the investor, it is up to you how you are going to use it. Again, 8% p.a between property vs UT, I'd take the UT anytime due to the liquidity. Not sure why you are so against other types of investment - ok I get it, you probably made some money and are currently well leveraged into properties, but at least you have to admit the pros and cons of other investments as well as properties.

But with you properties is always just PROS with almost no CONS, at least that is the impression that I got from you. And that is dangerous, and that is coming from a mortgage broker and coach.
wild_card_my
post Jun 12 2018, 09:20 AM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jun 12 2018, 09:16 AM)
For those unprepared, yea, will suffer ..

Looks like many here want to see a crash to get back even with those who made from bull run.. he he
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crashes have been happening in a few cold spots already. no one is happy about it. no one is trying to rain on your parade, some of us just want people to get back to reality, back on the ground. treat properties as any asset class
wild_card_my
post Jun 12 2018, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(ltpg @ Jun 12 2018, 09:32 AM)
i have been following your reply and opinions closely. And you r really knowledgeable i would say.  I have stopped property investments and disposed some just before gst implementation. Never regretted as the price has remained stagnant and even dropped in some areas. many other sellers are facing problems trying to secure a buyer. Some are silently  crying.  Anyway, currently there is a huge stock oversupply and i dont see the prices going up. Some already for sale for over 3 years yet to secure a buyer and more new units are currently out in the market making the competition stiffer.
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Thank you for your vote of confidence. I am also a registered estate negotiator (REN), I have to, because I have to be in the know. Currently the supply outstrips the demand, which is good for the consumer - a house is direly needed for a person to house his/her family. A basic house MUST NOT be too expensive.

Beyond basic houses, high-end residential and commercials are free-for-all - the developers and investors can dabble in this area all they want, it is their money. But do Malaysians really have the money or even the willingness to spend to stay in these areas - be it rental or purchase? A few definitely will, but when sources are limited, you ought to spend on the necessities like:

a. good, healthy foods
b. education (Adults and children alike)
c. insurances (try get the basic ones la, no need to get legacy products like most insurance agents are pushing for now)
d. retirement funds

Renting/staying at LUXURY areas are no different than owning/driving expensive cars. You pay good money for the experience, but is the experience a necessity or a need? I firmly believe that a need in a property lie in just 2 AREAS:

1. location (which includes accessibility to highways/public.t) and basic infrastructure like schools for your children
2. size big enough to accommodate your family so they do not get stressed out like caged animals

Anything beyond that are just part of the long list of boosters, but as you go down all the boosters list, their priorities take a dip. For example, a good mall is considered a booster - but do you NEED a good mall or you want to be next to it?

SO now thanks to all the medium cost-controlled rojects like RUMAWIP, PRIMA, SELANGORKU etc, every middle income family can afford to stay in a house... they dont have to spend excessively to buy properties just to put a roof on their head. Money is still tight, which is why why can start putting them in more needed area like mentioned above. So now residential-property investors are losing money hand-over fish. No rentals, and prices keep dipping, and they can't even dispose the property because the negative gap between the MV and the O/S

This post has been edited by wild_card_my: Jun 12 2018, 09:47 AM
wild_card_my
post Jun 22 2018, 12:18 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 15 2018, 03:43 PM)
There aren't many professional like you in this country. You have my respect and salute.
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Thank you, means a lot coming from you. thumbsup.gif

QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Jun 22 2018, 11:17 AM)
What happen to this newly completed project.
Becoming lelong house now. 7 units together all at once lelong.
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1. After the boom of 2010, plenty of buyers got roped into buying properties. As if owning properties were the epitome of good financial standing. The old mantra was repeated over and over again: "real properties NEVER go down in value, because land is limited, even for high-rises".

2. Those who got roped in bought without much analysis of their financial profiles and/or earning potential; soon they found out that they were "sub-prime" to begin with. Once the full installments kicked in, they realized that they weren't able to service the loan and had little choice but to default.

3. They couldn't sell the properties fast enough to close the mortgage account, because everyone was also selling, so competition was stiff - from within the same location, surrounding areas, AND the general availability of residential properties.

4. Following (3), the prices were stagnant and for some, even dropped to below the market-value or the developers' past AND current selling prices. They even had to compete against the developers who are trying to let go of their own unsold completed units. The developers have better financial reserves/prowess as well as economies/connections/technicalities of scale, and were able to sell their units with rebates and free legal fees, making buying from them a less out-of-pocket affair than buying a subsale unit, further dampening the subsale prices to compete against the developers'

5. Due to (3) and (4), some people had to default and this further dampens the prices of surrounding/similar unit; many got stuck in the situation with not much room to escape; some couldn't service the loans because their rentals are much lower than the monthly costs of maintaining the units; those who wanted to sell, couldn't, because the selling prices are lower than their outstanding balance. Others just had to bite the bullet and face negative cash flow for an undetermined length of time, others are worried sick about their cash-flow and have no way of escaping this predicament

6. The ones with holding power get to weather the storm, but having bought these units a few years ago is categorically a mistake; the money used to purchase, pay the interests, and servicing the mortgages could have been invested elsewhere and would have earned them more gains than this whole stack of bullcrap. The truth is in the pudding, those lelong units have backstories of their own. They didn't just appeared out of thin air, they are a collection of bad financial decisions that ended up at the auction houses

Btw, which aps are you using to scour for these lelong listings?

This post has been edited by wild_card_my: Jun 22 2018, 12:24 PM
wild_card_my
post Jun 22 2018, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Jun 22 2018, 12:27 PM)
terima kaseh...

edit: banyak gila lelong units in Cyber. 43 from a cursory search

This post has been edited by wild_card_my: Jun 22 2018, 12:42 PM
wild_card_my
post Jun 22 2018, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(Skidd Chung @ Jun 22 2018, 12:38 PM)
Lelong properties are normally by flippers whose banks basically confiscate their property for failing to service their loans.

Banks or financial companies will sell off these assets as 'lelong' units. But that doesn't mean the prices have come down. Some times what is reserve price is just an indicator but actualy sales price can be much higher.

A lower reserve price compared to market value, can be a 'indication' of problems within the unit itself. For example, bad flooring, water damage etc. Especially true for abandoned houses.
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Isn't reserve price simply the bank's own loans outstanding with the owner + a bit more for the fees?
wild_card_my
post Jun 22 2018, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Jun 22 2018, 01:07 PM)
No u got it wrong. Bank set the rp. Bank just want to dispose the units fast. They also are unable to inspect thw inside of props. Your stayement are just your asaumptions
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That is what I read too. They just want to cover their outstanding. Banks where go time to go check inside, owners wouldn't give also. Banks have power or attorney can sell it anytime they want. They will only need to sell it at a price enough to cover their outstanding plus other fees
wild_card_my
post Jun 22 2018, 01:41 PM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Jun 22 2018, 01:35 PM)
If can recover the outstanding. I doubt that Vision Residence unit S&P price over 1M but sold at 400k in lelong, bank will recover anything out of that.

Continue and chase the default owner? No idea what other action can the bank takes to get back the money.
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No what I mean is that it would start from the bank trying to recover their O/S... if they fail to get that, then they would just have to bite the bullet and start reducing the reserve price from that point foward, as you have mentioned

If the bank can recover their outstanding, the defaulter owner wont be declared bankrupt. but if they can't the defaulted owner can be sued for bankrupcy and their possessions can be confiscated like any other bankrupcy cases. right? I am just a salesman, these things years beyond sales is somewhat beyond my levels

Also, I heard that valuers will get in trouble if the banks can't sell their properties for the price they have valued...

This post has been edited by wild_card_my: Jun 22 2018, 01:42 PM
wild_card_my
post Jun 22 2018, 07:51 PM

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So in conclusion, can we safely say that there was a bubble and some of them are bursting now?
wild_card_my
post Jun 26 2018, 11:33 PM

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From my experience as a mortgage broker, lelong units are the last units a noobie investor should get into. The risk of losing money is way too high.

The banks have the final say in your loan approval, some banks wont even process lelong units that are not auctioned by themselves.

That is not to say that no one should dabble in it, as per all investment opportunities, you need to learn up down left right front and back before parting with your money.

I have a few clients who lost tens of thousands of ringgit from the defaulted DP... one of them has been paying RM40k for an RM180k~ flat/apartment due to the property being unable to transfer (i took over the case after the fact), and no banks are entertaining her application - but she has already paid the DP, legal, penalty, etc. It is a sorry sight
wild_card_my
post Jun 27 2018, 12:16 AM

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QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Jun 26 2018, 11:39 PM)
unable to obtain loan,
got caveat,
etc.
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Caveat is crazy.

Once I managed to get a loan for my customer from a local medium-sized bank. LO signed, then turns out got caveat (hey, i was just helping him with the mortgage, everything else was his due diligence). With POS signed, deposit paid, the bank withdrew the offer because they know it would take too long a time.

Crazy hell. He has to get PLs of about 400k++ just to get the sale through. But sakit la.
wild_card_my
post Jun 28 2018, 10:20 AM

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https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...its-at-rm22bil/

QUOTE
Unsold 34,500 completed residential units in Malaysia total RM22b


PETALING JAYA: The number of unsold completed residential units – including serviced apartments and small office, home offices (SoHos) – totalled 34,532 worth RM22.26bil for the first quarter of this year, the National Property Information Centre said in its latest report on Property Overhang Q1 2018.

These are cumulative figures from previous years.

This represents an increase of 55.72% in the number of unsold units compared to a year ago, when unsold units totalled 22,175, inclusive of serviced apartments and SoHos, which are built on land zoned as commercial but have a residential element to them.

In ringgit value, this represents a rise of 67.82%, from RM13.27bil a year ago to RM22.26bil as at March 31, 2018. Excluding serviced apartments/SoHos, about a third of all residential units in their respective price segments remained unsold.

Most of the units launched were priced between RM500,000 and RM1mil, of which a third remained unsold.

Those priced between RM300,000 and RM400,000 also saw 33% of the launched units being left on the shelf.

For the first quarter of this year, the number of SoHos and serviced apartments numbered about 48,000, with about 25,000 units located in Johor alone.

Although serviced apartments and SoHos are not found in Kedah and the east coast states, Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu have the largest number of unsold residential units at 48.08%, 48.20% and 44.20%, respectively.

Ironically, the states with the largest number of serviced apartments and SoHos – Johor, Kuala Lumpur and Selangor – have unsold stock of 29.12%, 13.53% and 17.86%, respectively. Penang has unsold stock of 33.12%.

Increasingly, Melaka is building more serviced apartments, with 1,520 units launched in the first quarter of this year, of which only 130 units were unsold.

PPC International managing director Datuk Siders Sittampalam said the overhang in Malaysia was due to two factors – unaffordable property prices and locations that were less-than-ideal.

“You can’t say there is no demand, because there is latent demand. But one reason for the overhang is because prices of these units are just too high.”

He said the various cooling measures implemented by Bank Negara made it difficult for potential homebuyers to secure financing to purchase property.

“Unless the financing regime changes, this (the overhang situation) will continue,” he said.

Other than high house prices, Siders noted that some properties may not be sold due to poor or limited accessibility.

“Some properties may be built in less-than-ideal locations – they may be too far away to live in or may not have the suitable amenities like proper public transport.

“We can talk of economic factors improving but nothing will change unless these two (affordability and accessibility) factors improve.”

Knight Frank Malaysia managing director Sarkunan Subramaniam said while the overhang situation in the country was high, “it wasn’t at alarming levels.”

“Alarming is when you see abandoned projects or developers going bust. So, the situation is not alarming – but affirmative action needs to be taken.”

He said improvement in the economy would help spur the local property market.

“With the level of transparency being shown by the Pakatan Harapan government, we will see more confidence in the economy. By next year, the overhang situation should reduce.”

Sarkunan said now would be a good time for the central bank to make adjustments to the lending policies.

“The non-performing loan rates ... they haven’t increased by much. People are still holding on to their assets and that is a good sign.”

Sarkunan is also hopeful that the new government would implement clearer policies to help bolster affordable housing developments in the country.

“Under the previous government, there was no clear direction in terms of housing policies, except for affordable housing. Developers did their best to make the sales happen,” he said.

Last November, Bank Negara said the number of unsold residential properties was at a decade high, with a majority of the units in the RM250,000-and-above price range.

However, in spite of large numbers of unsold units, some industry experts still believe that the residential property market is facing an undersupply.

At the 11th Malaysian Property Summit 2018 in January, CBRE|WTW managing director Foo Gee Jen observed that a mismatch of price, location and products had led to this conundrum.

“Based on the population growth rate of 1.3% of 32 million people as of 2016, the annual growth is around 390,000. Based on the average household of four people, we need about 97,500 units per year.

“But annual completions are only at 78,216 units,” Foo said at the summit.

According to him, Bank Negara estimates that average Malaysians can afford houses priced RM250,000 and below.

“But 78.7% of new launches in the first half of 2017 were priced beyond RM250,000,” he said, adding that almost half of the launches (49.8%) comprised units priced over RM400,000, and 25.4% of them were above RM500,000.

The main concerns are distribution of household incomes and distribution of houses in the market, which have contributed to the high overhang.

According to the Valuation and Property Services Department market report, residential property continued to support the overall sector with a 62.4% market share, followed by agriculture property with a 22.5% share.

The residential property market recorded 194,684 transactions worth RM68.47bil in 2017, 4.1% lower in volume compared with 2016. It rose marginally in value terms by 4.4%.

Demand was seen in units priced RM200,000 and below, which accounted for nearly 45% of the residential market volume in 2017.

wild_card_my
post Jun 28 2018, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Jun 28 2018, 12:14 PM)
its just a waste of space.
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What is a waste of space?
wild_card_my
post Jun 29 2018, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 29 2018, 10:58 AM)
US subprime crisis was exorbitance by mortgage backed securities.

many of borrowers who were considered subprime before 2011 i.e. low entry, dibs, etc were permitted in this country from 2011 to 2014. many took advantage and bought multiple units to flip. how many of these subprime among residential property borrowers is remain to be seen, suspect the number is substantial. the default many not cause catastrophic failure of local bank but will discourage bank lending to residential sector i.e further suppress property market.
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Do the banks have to take the brunt of unsold lelong units...? I am talking about the ones that we have been posting here, ones that have made into the auction houses for the 4th/5th time before they are sold, usually way below market value... and if they were sold below the loan outstanding amount, who is responsible to repay the banks, or do the banks have to write these debts off? bad debts? What about the borrower? As they failed to return a substantial amount (was it above RM50k?) to the bank, would they be sued for bankruptcy? This is a little beyond me, as I am usually only at the forefront of the transaction.

This post has been edited by wild_card_my: Jun 29 2018, 11:08 AM
wild_card_my
post Jul 3 2018, 09:47 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jul 3 2018, 07:44 PM)
Wat to expect with another round of opr hike 🙊🙊🙊
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What are your basis on saying that? Want to hear your thoughts
wild_card_my
post Jul 4 2018, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 4 2018, 07:09 AM)
After fed normalized interest rate, expect 150 to 200 basis points higher than currently. Unless dt cause a premature economic recession in the u.s. traditionally, bnm track fed rate else myr/usd and mgs will take a hit.

The biggest threat to property market in next few years is not bank interest rate hike but liquidity tightening.

Local property market is likely will be compounded by npl, further reduce bank lending to property sector.
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So.. things are not looking good? Oversupply of units and credit tightening means my business will be thoroughly affected. Hurmm...
wild_card_my
post Jul 18 2018, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Jul 17 2018, 11:57 PM)
wow. 6++ sqft below 200k can buy. BBB
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with Lelong, anything can happen.
wild_card_my
post Jul 23 2018, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Jul 23 2018, 04:01 PM)
No taker this unit. Now at even cheaper price.

No taker. Cheaper price than ever now.
For bumi buyer only.

B-05-02, Kondo Villa Pantai @ Saville , No. 1, Jalan Pantai Murni 8
Reserve price: 🔥🔥RM 510,300🔥🔥
Freehold
1646 sqft
Auction :  07-Aug-2018
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Freehold, but only for bumi buyer. So that means the property still under master title right?
wild_card_my
post Jul 23 2018, 05:41 PM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Jul 23 2018, 05:39 PM)
Yes still under master title that's why the bumi quota still apply.
Best time for bumi buyer actually to try this unit. Buy at a cheaper price and hold until individual strata issue. Then you are free to sell to anyone. No longer got bumi quota.
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honestly though, is the bottom-low prices of these units through lelong transactions affect the current subsale prices? Like if you look at brickz you would see the lelong transactions.. .would it be wise to buy this units in the hope that they would bounce? If too many lelong units for a given area, doesn't that mean that the bubble has burst?

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