Current theme in investment: Anything is safe as long is not Bolehland! LOL!!!!

I was tinkering with Algozen™ yesterday night. I have not gone on a date with her for sometime now, why? Because, things were quite mundane, the port NAV was inching upwards, things are going great.... why rock the boat right? Why fix something that ain't broken?

I would have preferred Hilary because then I would not have to do much work and let my portfolio continue its good work. Make money while doing nothing, isn't it great? But then along came a Trump the disruptor of peace and quiet!

Anyway, as I was tinkering and clinkering with Algozen™, I noticed some changes. I wasn't looking for it specifically, more of a unintentional observation.

What changes?

I noticed that before Trumpism, the various asset class under Algozen™ radar were actually quite correlated. It was rather quite difficult to find correlation-coefficient of asset class below 0.4 or less. Many were 0.7 plus minus thereabout. It seems to me the market were all moving in a same direction. And when that happens, should something unusual or unexpected happens, a massive shock would occur. Trumpism = case in point.

Post Trumpism, as I went back to recalculate my portfolio standard-deviation, which require correlation-coefficient between asset class to compute, I noticed that the correlation-coefficient between asset class has decreases. In other words, the various asset class has start to increase their divergence from each other. Actually this is a good sign, if one profess to follow the asset allocation model.

When correlation-coefficient between asset class decreases, the calculated risk aka standard-deviation also decreases in tandem.

Furthermore I cross-checked from FSM webpage and I noticed that for individual asset class risk aka standard-deviation does not increase much. It is surprise actually. Since, the correlation-coefficient between asset class has dropped, therefore when one is constructing a properly allocated asset model, the portfolio total risk actually drops.

In simple English, the portfolio is less risky now than previously.

So, what does that mean to the retail investor?

It means, yes! You do not need to be too afraid, continue to invest. However do not be too hasty. Go in, in a staggered manner ala DCA or VCA or a Hybrid of both. The risk now, is less than before as long as one is performing a properly asset allocated portfolio.

Xuzen.

p/s: I don't think anyone or analyst has said this before. You are hearing this for the first time courtesy of Algozen™ and her bullshitting / scam artist spoke-person.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Nov 26 2016, 04:47 PM

Taken from The Edge dated 27/11/2016 edition.

An idea to consider....

In FSM, only Affin-Hwang REITs & infrastructure fund invest in this asset class.

In the same article, Pub-Mut and Hong Leong asset management has UTF that buys into these type of assets but they are not on FSM platform.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Nov 27 2016, 12:35 PM


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Good sister,

Yeah, I am still getting my raw data from the Morningstar X-ray function in the absence of more localized information. I have to make do with what I have.

I tried the link but that is only a 14 days free trial. After 14 days, you need to pay. I ONLY want FREE stuff..... Hence, it is a thanks but no thanks from me.

Yes, in the absence of major news, corr-coeff does not move much. But Trump getting the POTUS job is not a mundane occurrence. That is why I decided to go and revisit my darling Algozen™ again. What I found to me seems interesting and against conventional view which state that is a risk-off situation. Algozen™ gives a risk-on contrarian view.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Nov 28 2016, 12:18 PM

Wahai dinda Pink yang dikasihi,

Jenguklah webpage FSM. Kawasan manakah yang dikurniakan lima bintang?

Negara Tionghua dan Kanton sahaja yang dikurniakan lima biji bintang.

Algozen™ overweight UTF yang mana?

Sejak berbulan-bulan yang lalu, semenjak bulan empat Algozen™ overweight RHB AIF.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Nov 28 2016, 02:59 PM

RHB GS US-Equity and TA Global Tech leh?

Malaysia or not Malaysia... all of you will still have Malaysia exposure. You just cannot run away from it.

KWSP (which forms most of our significant wealth) is heavily exposed to MGS and Malaysia stock market.

Just something to remind us all....

I concur.... Emerging market bonds are looking attractive again. I have checked with my Lic Financial Planner and he consulted with his superior. They say yes, EM Bonds has been beaten down and is looking attractive again, however, if you must go in, go in slowly.... nibble at it. Do not be gung ho.

As for me, I may go for EM Bond in lieu of RHB ATR. Will go in slowly.... no rush for me. Why I choose EM Bond? The corr-coeff of EM Bond is low with regards to my other UTF holdings.

Xuzen

p/s

I am selling or taking profit for my India fund. She has had a good run, it is time to take profit liao. I have monitored her risk to reward ratio and it is dropping, this is the trigger for me to take profit.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Nov 29 2016, 08:15 PM

Darn paiseh paiseh.... but what your chart mean ar?

Ramjade, risk to reward = return divided by the standard deviation.

Since, the standard-deviation value listed on FSM is 3 years rolling average, use this as the denominator against the corresponding three years average return as the enumerator.

Sudah cakap before... you no pay attention wan!

Oooi! Don't simply say this and that ar? Where got great return? Last month only gain 0.XX % nia....... but still a four digit gain lar.

Gain came from TA GTF (USD/ MYR surge)

plus

RHB AIF reversal

Xuzen

If not because of Kap Chai fund dragging my port down, the gain in Nov 2016 could have been doubled!

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 1 2016, 06:25 PM

No DCA, No VCA, No Hybrid.....mana boleh?



But Xuzen bow down, prostrate to the master, man of titanium balls.

Xuzen = kiasu / kiasi wan... always hydrid DCA / VCA. Nibble bit by bit.... never have titanium balls.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 1 2016, 06:26 PM

How could you not know about Esther Teo ?

You spend too much time with the ASX'ers......

Xuzen

That title of the article is "An alternative to playing mutual funds game"

Heretics! Blasphemy!

Where can play mutual fund wan? We are serious long term investors wor!

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 1 2016, 06:51 PM

FSM betul - betul dengar rugutan dan keluhan para pelanggan mereka. Dengan serta - merta mereka mengambil langkah - langkah tertentu untuk mengembirakan para pelanggan mereka.

Xuzen

Selina Yong

Esther Teo

Esther Teo

Esther Teo

Can I be more clearer?

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 1 2016, 06:48 PM

Adele123, J.passing.by, Howszat et al are probably piling up the stakes and lighting the pyre! They are gonna burn you at the stake with a massive bonfire!

This post has been edited by xuzen: Dec 1 2016, 06:56 PM

Just read the last sentence of that article.... FSM R&D team recommend one not to expose more than 10% of one's portfolio in India UTF.

Currently, I am exposed more than ten percent. I am taking profit slowly to bring my exposure to ten percent. I am over-exposed, it is time to take profit. Hence my earlier assertion is still consistent with FSM recommendation. Oh wait,,,, why should I listen to FSM people ar? They got crystal ball meh?

Xuzen