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 FundSuperMart v16 (FSM) MY : Online UT Platform, UT DIY : Babystep to Investing :D

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_azam13
post Nov 24 2016, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(frankzane @ Nov 24 2016, 02:02 PM)
Sorry newbie here. Isn't it better to invest in a developed country rather than in an emerging one?
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whats your objective, target return, investment horizon, risk appetite? Before you start investing, those are questions you must ask yourself first
_azam13
post Nov 24 2016, 06:52 PM

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QUOTE(T231H @ Nov 24 2016, 06:45 PM)
The 9 (bad) Habits of Highly Ineffective Investors - The Common Mistakes Investors Make [24 Nov]
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...ke-24-Nov--7737

doh.gif  I got some of those habits..... cry.gif
how many do you have?
biggrin.gif
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Mine is #6 and #8
_azam13
post Nov 25 2016, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(fense @ Nov 25 2016, 04:03 PM)
I does do some EPF investment, but mostly was malaysia market. can see it is so weak....
[attachmentid=8137994]
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most of your fund double digit return. nice
_azam13
post Nov 25 2016, 09:21 PM

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haha investment should be void of emotions.. where it is good, ppl sure flock there.. the last thing you want in investment is nationalism/patriotism..
_azam13
post Nov 27 2016, 09:34 PM

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eUT website is fugly, they need to hire better graphic designer and developer

XD
_azam13
post Nov 28 2016, 08:34 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Nov 28 2016, 08:29 PM)
Guys, what are you doing to the bleeding Malaysia bond funds ? Have they sort of stopped bleeding or climb up again ? What are you doing to it ? Switch out or top up or do nothing ?
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The foreign outflow has been smaller last week. However, if your bonds are still positive, I suggest to withdraw them and put somewhere else first.. besides, US might likely hike their rate next month.

Unless you put in those with redemption fees..
_azam13
post Nov 28 2016, 08:55 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Nov 28 2016, 08:46 PM)
They could hike their rate, yes.

But it is unlikely that you were the first one to have thought of that. So, it is likely that what had already happened to bonds had that factor already built-in.
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Unless you're 100% sure that everyone has priced it in and the bond rout has stopped, then by all means keep your bonds. But I don't believe it will grow much over the next month. No reason for foreign money to come pouring in again in this short term, so I'd rather put my money somewhere else for the time being.
_azam13
post Nov 28 2016, 09:13 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Nov 28 2016, 09:04 PM)
Nothing to do with me.

This was about the general market, and about how anticipated factors tend to be built in way in advance. This was about lots of other people who may have already come to the same conclusion, and have already done something about it.
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Sure. Let's say market had ALL already priced in the rate hike. I'll still keep the later part of my previous reply.

"But I don't believe it will grow much over the next month. No reason for foreign money to come pouring in again in this short term, so I'd rather put my money somewhere else for the time being."

My recommendation still stands. Outflow is still happening. Once it has stopped and reversed to uptrend, I will put my money back.
_azam13
post Nov 28 2016, 09:47 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Nov 28 2016, 09:18 PM)
No one can argue about things like "100%" or "ALL", because the reality is always to what degree and to what percentage. And subjected to change.

What you would prefer to do is up to you.
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Then what you're saying is some part of the market still has not reacted to the rate hike.. which would then warrant the bondholders to pull out their money now before more of them 'react'.

Look, I'm not arguing that the market hasn't reacted to the probability of rate hike. Efficient market theory and what not. Sure you can argue that it is 100% or close to 100% probability, and you might be right that rate hike is irrelevant now, but my recommendation to the asker still stands (even if I'm wrong about the rate hike), not by considering just rate hike, but also the outflow trends, 1MDB, ringgit sentiment, or even Malaysia market's attractiveness as a whole. Maybe I have oversimplified things in my reply to the asker. Like they say, "there's a difference between being right and making money".

"What you would prefer to do is up to you."

I would have told that to everyone because its true, but that wouldn't help the person asking the question at all... and all questions in this thread would have gotten "up to u" replies.. I'm just providing my opinion on outlook of Malaysian bonds and what I'm doing with it, as per actually answering somebody's question.
_azam13
post Nov 28 2016, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Nov 28 2016, 10:19 PM)
You said: "besides, US might likely hike their rate next month.". I said that's nothing new, it would have already been built-in.

You can recommend whatever you like to the "asker". You can also do what you like: "so I'd rather put my money somewhere else for the time being".

You are providing an opinion, or recommendation? There is a difference. If opinion, I have a different opinion. If recommendation, what are your qualifications to recommend?

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You said: "besides, US might likely hike their rate next month.". I said that's nothing new, it would have already been built-in.

^I have already said that you might be right, based on efficient market theory. So I have already agreed. The reason the word 'might' is there because like you said, no ALL or 100% in reality. I am never 100% certain. No analysts are, anyway. So I'm not really sure what you really want here.

You can recommend whatever you like to the "asker". You can also do what you like: "so I'd rather put my money somewhere else for the time being".

You are providing an opinion, or recommendation? There is a difference. If opinion, I have a different opinion. If recommendation, what are your qualifications to recommend?


^It's my opinion/recommendation. I don't have a qualification. I work in investment though. Maybe that would help ease your discomfort a little bit? When I say "I'd rather....time being", it means yeah I'm putting my money aside for the time being and I also recommend the asker to do the same.

_azam13
post Nov 28 2016, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Nov 28 2016, 10:51 PM)
You brought up "100%". Let's not bring up "100%" again, because no one is ever that certain, and since we are in agreement. Besides being meaningless and pointless in any type of debate.

Technically, opinion and recommendation convey two different meanings.

Opinion is personal. To recommend, you need to have a basis for your recommendation.

Your recommendation could be based on Algozen (that's a TM, right spelling?), or anything else you prefer, but at least people know where you are coming from, and can decide for themselves.
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Yes, I agree that opinion and recommendation is different. But my post actually had both:-

1) Opinion: Rate hike next month, might not be a good idea to hold on to bonds. (Of course I had simplified everything into rate hike, my mistake). This, was my basis for my recommendation.

2) Recommendation: Well, I said I'd rather put my money somewhere else for the time being. This would actually double up as my recommendation, because if people ask me what they should do with their (Malaysian) bond funds, I would tell them exactly the same thing: Put your money somewhere else for now. I gave recommendation because I was under the impression the asker had asked what others are doing with their bond funds and hence, implying that he would like some recommendations.

Several pages earlier, I have mentioned that I would wait until reversal happens, before I would put more in MY bond funds because the downtrend was apparent. The downtrend is still happening now although its getting smaller. This can be approximated by the size of fund outflow from Malaysia (shrunk last week compared to week before that), because foreign selling is the cause of declining bond prices. I have had this opinion since then, and I'm still holding onto it right now. So if you ask me when is the right time to enter again, I would say lookout for foreign outflow trend. If it reverses, then it might be good time to buy.
_azam13
post Nov 29 2016, 06:31 PM

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» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


I didn't know you can contact them and ask for their opinion on investment stuff biggrin.gif

"If you foresee the bond price will further going down significantly, then selling it will be an option but you also need to decide when will you want to come back to the market for better potential return." <---- this rclxms.gif (although I don't think it will go down further significantly. but enough to make me move out and wait for reversal confirmation biggrin.gif )



_azam13
post Nov 29 2016, 07:40 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Nov 29 2016, 06:49 PM)
kinda reluctant as the switching fees and I'll be selling at a lost. what if it rebounds by end January, wouldn't I have shot my leg?
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this was making an assumption that you dont hold funds with redemption fees and you're moving money into something which doesnt impose sales charge - for example keeping as cash or buying foreign bonds(I did this). I dont know about end January. My target to enter is when foreign flow turns 0 or slightly net positive. If that happens in mid December then so be it, because I would be entering when it starts to rebound (thus not shooting my leg) biggrin.gif

But if you're in the negative I dont suggest you realise your loss. Just keep the bond funds. Its the same with my Anita fund. Its currently negative so I did nothing to it. My recommendation would only stand for 1) those with unrealised gains in their bond funds and would not incur redemption fee if switching (like Anita), and 2) those who currently have no exposure to MY bonds and are deciding whether to buy or to wait
_azam13
post Nov 29 2016, 08:09 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Nov 29 2016, 07:58 PM)
Malaysia or not Malaysia... all of you will still have Malaysia exposure. You just cannot run away from it.

KWSP (which forms most of our significant wealth) is heavily exposed to MGS and Malaysia stock market.

Just something to remind us all....
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Haha reminds me of the discussion I had with Mr WMK a while back.. I suppose if we consider KWSP as part of our portfolio in diversification planning, then the view which would prevail is = no more allocation to local bonds (since our KWSP has enough exposure in it).. biggrin.gif
_azam13
post Nov 29 2016, 10:30 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Nov 29 2016, 10:21 PM)
Darn paiseh paiseh.... but what your chart mean ar?
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Im guessing its showing the divergence of sectors within S&P 500.. tongue.gif joke aside, Im not sure which line represents which sector though
_azam13
post Nov 30 2016, 05:33 PM

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QUOTE(sugarcookies @ Nov 30 2016, 05:21 PM)
What's wrong with this fund actually? Some funds going up and down but this fund just keep going down and down somemore sad.gif

I did a lump sum 2k early this year, lost RM326 to date. People says UT is meant for long term so I am really not sure should dump this fund seeing the direction it goes and I don't have the confident to do the top up either...
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Read all the documents before investing to get a rough idea of the geography of the fund as well as the sectors they invest into...
_azam13
post Nov 30 2016, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 30 2016, 06:58 PM)
bloody hell..

who reporting my post from year 2014 in FSM Version 7??
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lol ppl really have nothing better to do sometimes
_azam13
post Nov 30 2016, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Nov 30 2016, 10:01 PM)
The point though is if you keep yourself aware of what is happening, why do you need the unit trust manager to manage your money?

You could just invest directly in stocks and bonds as you see fit, without having to pay fees to the UT manager when you have been monitoring everything yourself?
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are there bonds sold to retail investors? i thought only high net worth individuals can afford even 1 lot of bond hmm.gif
_azam13
post Nov 30 2016, 10:50 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Nov 30 2016, 10:33 PM)
There is a minimum amount, yes. 200k minimum the last time I looked at it.

My point remains unchanged though. If you are constantly monitoring yourself, and the fund manager is supposed to do monitoring and rebalancing for you, there is a duplication of effort, and hence wasted effort, somewhere along the line.
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Eh, I beg to slightly differ. You see, you have a point. But the rebalancing done by the unit trust holder is not exactly a duplication in some sense. We rebalance our asset allocation. We look at markets in general, so we can decide in the geographies and asset classes in our portfolio. We're not going down that deep until we look at specific stocks per se. If a unit trust investor look at specific stocks to choose a fund, then I also wouldn't agree with what he's doing.

Actively trading some unit trust funds could be ROI-enhancing in addition to buy and hold method. Take what I've done in the past for example:

I hold bonds and stock unit trusts. But I also wanted to have exposure in case Brexit happens. My view was that the majority of ageing population in Britain favours Brexit. So I took a "bet" and bought AmPrecious metal. In doing that, I managed to make around 8-9% Holding Period Return (HPR) over less than two weeks.

Another example was recent. I foresee that dollar is going up a lot in short term. I loaded on USD funds, and was able to keep my portfolio afloat as my MYR bonds get bashed. The fund I bought actually gave me over 4% HPR since Trump won until now.

Thats why I kept quiet whenever passive vs active management debate comes up. I don't really care. What works, works. Passive works for some people. Active works for others. Personally, I'm a mix of both. I have my passive funds which I keep DCA, and I also set aside a smaller portion to capitalise on small pockets of opportunities (like gold and USD funds above).

Off-topic update: OPEC meeting agrees on production cut of 1.2m barrels per day.
_azam13
post Nov 30 2016, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Nov 30 2016, 11:05 PM)
A whole bunch of micro-level arguments.

But you missed the most essential point about UT. We may debate high and low about economies, geographies, asset classes, and even Trump-ism (how do you spell that?).

And it doesn't matter. What you may decide about how the fund should perform, the Fund manager/individual may/could go and do something else, completely different. And you have no control over that.
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I think you are the one who missed what I've said. Did you even read my post confused.gif

I never said I care about what the fund manager is doing on a micro level (his stock picking methods are up to him, I dont care). Yes, I agree with you, I have no control over that. And your point is? Tell me, what is it that I'm doing that you disagree so much. We can start again from there.

If you're hell bent on saying economics, geography, asset classes dont matter, then I suggest you buy the whole world's stock market. You'll probably get 1-2% return p.a. If that's your strategy and risk budget, who am I to argue?

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