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 USD/MYR v4

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Hansel
post Nov 18 2016, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 18 2016, 09:08 AM)
Sometimes, I wonder,...the currency that is under deliberation here is the USD. If the MYR is pitched against the Euro and the AUD, it should be more favourable because the Euro and the AUD would be weakening against the USD too,... in tandem with the MYR.

Why should the MYR be suffering 'alone' against all the other currencies, when the USD is clearly winning against all, not only the MYR ?
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I have found the answer to my question above. An excerpt from a press report this morning :-

'More worryingly, the ringgit has continued to decline against regional currencies, which could mean that the bearish sentiment towards the currency may not be limited to speculative trading in the offshore US dollar-ringgit market.'

So,.. it looks like traders doing the cross-currencies are also selling down against the Ringgit. Everybody is selling the Ringgit !!! sad.gif
Hansel
post Nov 18 2016, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Nov 18 2016, 09:52 AM)
It is never too late. I have already set aside a sum for the education need. So long as it is not breached, I do not have much concern. Except coughing out more dough and less dough for retirement.  biggrin.gif
I am actually not asking for advice as already know what to be done. Thanks anyway ! biggrin.gif
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That's right ! It is never too late,... but never doing at all will kill us and leave us stranded.
Hansel
post Nov 18 2016, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 18 2016, 10:08 AM)
i was surprised u made the first comment as i thought u would have known!

it's all about CONFIDENCE.

which is seriously lacking, getting worse:

.. USD is appreciating against MYR.
.. Chinese authorities are letting RMB depreciate, triggering the prospect of currency devaluation war.
.. under MO1 administration, the country has recorded an external debt of RM833 billion as of end of 2015.
.. crude oil prices are still sagging.
.. investors are still being spooked by 1MDB scandal which doesn’t seem to be going away.

there is not a single piece of strong support at this time.
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biggrin.gif You over-estimated me, bro,....

Okay,... then even if our BNM 'can defend' the RM against the USD, what about the crosses ? How is the BNM going to defend against the other currencies, so many in the world ?

Or is their plan just to defend against the USD only, since the USD is the most widely accepted currency in the world for trade, and is the currency to denote oil price ?
Hansel
post Nov 18 2016, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 18 2016, 10:49 AM)
the $ is ALWAYS driving all other currencies - biggest open economy, world trade denomination.

YEN never had the ambition to exert more influence.

EURO and RMB were supposed to take over some influence from $ but there was Grexit, Brexit, China not ready.

all the rest are small fry.
the "defence" seen now is only tactical and limited in effect.

if anything to draw from the thai baht collapse in 1997, it is impt not to let confidence erode some more as to spark private/foreigner selling of assets and intensified capital flight.

and that can only be achieved by the world seeing good governance, honesty and integrity.

now, that is not forthcoming, is it?!
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OKay,... bro AV,... thumbsup.gif : private and foreigners selling of assets and intensified capital flight !

Foreigners selling : MGS holders.

Privates selling : ASX FP holders ?? smile.gif
Hansel
post Nov 18 2016, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 18 2016, 11:03 AM)
like i said (or joke), do some major shopping now! biggrin.gif

looking at the prices of the restaurant and grocery store last 2 days, some prices have already been revised up.

100% imported stuff even with zero gst like aussie beef already up 15%.

a lot more to come.
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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 18 2016, 11:23 AM)
Yeah

noticed that as well. Lots of daily essential items have gone up.
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From the above, it looks like the 6.2% return per year from ASX FP can't cover the price rise of basic foodstuff,... don't talk abt Aussie beef,...
Hansel
post Nov 18 2016, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Nov 18 2016, 11:36 AM)
True. I put into ASX FP to hedge against rising cost when FD cannot cut it.
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Bro,... putting into ASX FP also cannot hedge now,... read my sentence,...
Hansel
post Nov 18 2016, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 18 2016, 11:36 AM)
in the baht crisis of 1997, it wasn't just the liquid assets but the hard ones too - buildings, land, factories, whole biz.

it was after the crisis that many MNC's in emerging markets no longer want to own buildings and land but just rent.

this time, here... may be more stable - less of that plus china is likely to hold on to what it paid for recently or going to pay.
ASX... not sure if i read correctly..?.. in one recent bloomberg report, it cited even bumis are now selling - to cope with rising cost of living and debt. do google...
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Okay,... tq, bro,....
Hansel
post Nov 19 2016, 06:55 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 18 2016, 09:12 PM)
what do u think bnm can do that will make it better?
mgs yield.. ooo... touched 4.46% today.
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=2014_govtsecuritiesyield

all time high is 5.0%, i think.
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QUOTE(langstrasse @ Nov 18 2016, 09:14 PM)
I don't know exactly to be honest, but could they start burning up foreign reserves to defend the currency?
Or maybe peg the currency ? hmm.gif
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 18 2016, 09:17 PM)
reserves... peg...

pls read last 10 pages - all is there.
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QUOTE(xpmm @ Nov 18 2016, 10:03 PM)
umno thugs are well known for their lawlessness,  they will intervene in whatever unreasonable ways to defend myr, so myr is artificially strengthened.

end result is, investors all cabut.
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Good morning all,

Well, there is one more way - borrow from the IMF or the World Bank, but this way comes with its price to pay, namely must abide by the demands of the world body.

Hansel
post Nov 19 2016, 06:56 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 19 2016, 06:48 AM)
This is juicy yield.  drool.gif
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Err, no Dan,... with the recent actions by BNM, everybody would be afraid to buy MGS already, I think,....
Hansel
post Nov 19 2016, 09:52 AM

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Long live the Ringgit, for a stronger Malaysia and a stronger Ringgit. It starts today !
Hansel
post Nov 20 2016, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 20 2016, 01:41 PM)
Governor: Bank Negara won’t tolerate ringgit transactions in NDF market
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...-in-ndf-market/
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He didn't say what he intends to do in order to not tolerate the offshore rates. Keeps telling offshore banks not to hedge with ndf rates ? Keeps holding back bond redemptions till banks sign that they will never ever do offshore hedgings again ? So,.. what do he intend to do to enforce ? Why he never said his complete plans so that the world will be able to position themselves ?

Must be scared,...... so much uncertainty, so much limbo,... how to convince investors ???
Hansel
post Nov 20 2016, 02:52 PM

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Relationship bewteen the MAS and with Bank Negara is falling apart ! BNM is accusing, publicly,... Singapore of manipulating the value of the Ringgit because of the NDF trades which are mostly traded in Sgp. Maybe,... soon,... can't send $$$ to Sgp anymore.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...k-wipe-out-ndf/

Just my personal opinion,...

Bank Negara is shivering everyday as the RM goes through the days now,....
Hansel
post Nov 21 2016, 04:37 PM

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Looks like the whole world is trying to tell BNM that what they are doing is wrong,... but,... BNM just couldn't be bothered. ... They just continued doing the same thing everyday mkt opens.
Hansel
post Nov 21 2016, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 21 2016, 05:09 PM)
Bnm could officially ignore ndf. However, foreign investors couldn't ignore the margin between ndf and onshore rate. If margin widen or high for extended period may prompt them to exit mgs for safety pastures.
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There is a hostage situation here. if foreign bond-holders wish to exit and convert back their funds to the home currencies, the BNM wants them to sign an undertaking saying that these parties are never to do ndf transactions again in future. These requests have already been sent to the COMPLIANCE DEPTS of the respective foreign banks.

So,... they can't exit ! vmad.gif
Hansel
post Nov 21 2016, 06:51 PM

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Forummers,... it's all in the news the last few days. And when the deputy gov fielded questions from reporters, he admitted that BNM has intervened in the mkts, and that BNM will do all they can to discourage the foreign ndf particpants.

Now,... I have a question why is the dep fielding questions and not the main man ??
Hansel
post Nov 22 2016, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(ninjawin @ Nov 22 2016, 03:03 PM)
USDMYR rates stopped moving since yesterday..anyone experiencing this ?
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I have been focussing more on the practical side of converting. In Maybank forex, the USD was at 4.4710 this morning. But this increased to 4.4960 at noon. This represents an increase of 0.56% within a few hours today ! shocking.gif
Hansel
post Nov 22 2016, 03:40 PM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ Nov 22 2016, 03:27 PM)
Bank Negara international reserves higher at US$98.3b as of Nov 15
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biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif Haha,... this does not make sense then,... BNM confirmed officially that they intervened to defend the Ringgit. Now the reserves became higher !!!! thumbsup.gif thumbsup.gif thumbsup.gif

Gents,... this is exactly one reason why I moved my investments out of the Bursa 13 years ago. The information and the events never synchronised. Something said, and something else happened, and something else reported !!!!! biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif

I find that the information in the SGX and other mkts are more synchronised, and more predictable,... that's why I go there !!!!!

This post has been edited by Hansel: Nov 22 2016, 03:43 PM
Hansel
post Nov 22 2016, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Nov 22 2016, 03:42 PM)
You can intervene without using reserves.
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biggrin.gif Intervening without reserves is not called intervening anymore, it's called hostage-taking,... like asking a foreign bank to sign papers before giving them back their money ! Intervening by pegging is called capital controls. Not intervening.

I'm glad I ran away and decided not to second-guess in the Bursa. ASX FP is the safest to me in Msia.
Hansel
post Nov 22 2016, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 22 2016, 03:50 PM)
Only in bolehland...
No wonder most of us already "keluar" with the money & invest elsewhere devil.gif
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Maybe some insiders can make it lar,... but not the investors outside,... maybe that's what they call syndicates,....better just put all the money into ASX FP,... don't go anywhere else,...
Hansel
post Nov 22 2016, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 22 2016, 04:03 PM)
u are serious on keeping all the money in ASx or just trolling for fun devil.gif  bruce.gif
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I'm serious, bro,... For my Malayisan paper assets, I trust only the ASX, and only the ASX FP. Yes, I have properties, but that's different asset class. And I don't intend to buy more anymore,... since the props that I hold are all paid up for and no more bank loans.

I can't take out from EPF yet, so,... I guessed it's all down to EPF and ASX FPs only, for my Msian holdings.

I stayed away from the Bursa and the local Unit Trusts.

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