Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Topic Closed RSS Feed
16 Pages « < 13 14 15 16 >Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 USD/MYR v4

views
     
AVFAN
post Dec 2 2016, 08:51 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 2 2016, 08:40 PM)
Well seems like no effect

Still around 4.46/4.47 hmm.gif
*
maybe becos it hasn't kicked in it.

xe.com's offshore NDF rate is "not recognized".

onshore rate is now heavily "controlled".

let's hope the bright brains at BNM and Fin Min know what they are doing.

and not see what is happening with the turkey's lira now:

QUOTE
Global Banks Rein in Turkey Loans as Erdogan Roils Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...n-roils-markets

How the Turkish lira entered free fall
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/...isis-blaze.html

AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 10:53 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
not sure if this makes it clearer...



QUOTE
Other measures to increase the demand for the ringgit include placing a cap on the amount that companies and individuals can invest locally or abroad in foreign currencies.

At the moment, companies and indivi­duals with loans tied to local banks can only invest a certain amount abroad for instance to purchase companies or properties.

For companies with loans, the limit is RM50mil while for individuals, it is RM1mil.

However, there are no restrictions for companies and individuals if they want to invest in foreign currency assets in the domestic market.

[B]“Companies and individuals tend to buy US dollar bonds or investment instruments sold by local banks by taking borrowings from local banks. Now there will be a cap on this,” said a dealer.

Effective Monday, local companies and individuals with borrowings can only invest up to RM50mil and RM1mil respectively in foreign currency denominated assets in the domestic market.

Bank Negara also announced measures to help fund managers manage their portfolio of investments against the volatility of the US dollar-ringgit movement.
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016...nd-for-ringgit/

AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 11:08 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 10:57 AM)
" The amount held by exporters in foreign currencies is estimated to be closer to RM90bil. At current exchange rate of dollar and ringgit, the gradual conversion of the export proceeds could result in Bank Negara’s reserves increasing by more than US$18bil (based on an exchange rate of RM4.44 to the dollar). "

Adding USD 18Bil to our current reserves of USD 96Bil is adding 20% strength onto the Ringgit, ie, again, mathematically, the Ringgit should strengthen by 20% against the major foreign currencies by end of next week.  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif
*
this must be the only "big" thing BNM found they can do to help the RM.

i think there will be short term effects effects, RM will recover a bit.

longer term... i see this discouraging some sectors.

FDI or JV's will almost certainly reduce further since this is simply a form of capital control.



No surprise BNM resort to this kind of cap control. they have consistently said, "no pegging" but never said "no cap control"! biggrin.gif

AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 11:24 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Sesshoumaru @ Dec 3 2016, 11:10 AM)
No.

http://www.bnm.gov.my/documents/2016/faq_i...cial_market.pdf

See item 22.

So there won't be an immediate boost right of the bat with the existing balances, mandatory speaking anyways. Only if the corps decide to just liquidate all FC into MYR (voluntary) will the immediate shoring of reserves happen.

Edit: Some typos and additional info.
*
QUOTE
The new measure does not apply to
existing foreign currency balances. The
new measure applies to export proceeds
received from 5 December 2016.



for new proceeds can expect a variety of responses from exporters.

some have comply fully, some may find new ways to export and keep fx outside.

overall, i think RM will recover a bit, but this is a dampener for aspiring exporters.



AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 11:33 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 11:24 AM)
[b]Comment : I wonder credit card debts are regarded as loans ties with local banks ? If they are, then we have to pay-up the credit card debts first before doing a TT ???  smile.gif  Doesn't make sense. Maybe can-lar,.... smile.gif

In summary,..............BNM is closing the doors too !!!!!!!!!!!!!
*
actually, the formality of control over using local debt to buy fx even domestically existed for some time now with local banks.

either just the banks were self prepared or BNM is now invoking this control on all local banks/brokers.

becos 2 yrs ago, i was asked (verbally only) by my local banker if i have any property loan as i do buy sgd/usd stocks with local brokers.

now, i'm quite sure they will soon get everyone to declare and sign some document.
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 11:38 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 11:34 AM)
Hmm,... if we're talking abt future amts coming back, then why did that asst giv mentioned abt the current improvement that can be enjoyed ?

"The amount held by exporters in foreign currencies is estimated to be closer to RM90bil. At current exchange rate of dollar and ringgit, the gradual conversion of the export proceeds could result in Bank Negara’s reserves increasing by more than US$18bil (based on an exchange rate of RM4.44 to the dollar)."

And why is the Asst talking all the time ??? Where is the main man ??? I keep asking this,....
*
i think that's just an upbeat projection based on existing data.

possible all will convert voluntarily over time, possible little will.
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 01:10 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 12:50 PM)
To yr first para, I am aware of it, but today, BNM is not seeing it this way anymore. They are in desperation mode (I think you said this too earlier) to stem the 'freefall' of the MYR. They need to solve the immediate problem first.

To yr second para,... O don't think foreigners holding too much of the Msian sovereign bonds is the ONLY reason for the MYR to die slowly. Deterring Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) is the last thing that I would want to worry about now. I think the gov't and BNM too agree with me on this. I would prefer to hold my MYR value now first, for good or for bad reasons,...
*
desperation it is.

what is the objective here?

overriding objective must be to boost the RM, and urgently.

other effects and consequences seems parked aside for now.

won't use monetary policy tools - opr, srr.

won't use fiscal measures either - no change in tax rates, little change in budget spending.

so, there u go - use "force", i.e. cap controls.

if this measure does not work well, we may see new and/or alleviated forms of cap control.

we should watch how trade and current account balances start to evolve from now on with those new measures on exporters and FX.



while msia's position is no as bad as that in turkey, there are stark similarities - borrow, consume, construction.

QUOTE
In its heyday, years before the 2009 global financial crisis as well as in the ensuing years, when the United States and Europe pursued liquidity expansion to battle the crisis, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) enjoyed abundant inflows of foreign capital, with an annual average of nearly $38 billion for the past 14 years.
Those resources, however, were used mostly toward domestic demand, financing consumer loans and sectors that bring in no foreign exchange gains, such as construction.
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/...l#ixzz4RkTOg1gd



AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 01:29 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 3 2016, 01:18 PM)
IMO, not all exporters will b affected by the latest ruling to convert 75% of their proceeds into MYR immediately

In fact, a lot of 'smart' exporters wud have opened FCA outside M'sia dy for the receipt of proceeds

For future Invoices (wef 3/12/16 onwards), they can specify pls credit payment into FCA maintained outside M'sia

In respect of issued Invoices (prior to 2/12/2016), they can easily nego with clients to redirect the proceeds into external FCA instead of internal FCA. Having said tat, the exporters need to give some 'discount' on the proceeds to clients so tat it's a win-win situation
*
this is an interesting "loophole".

but i doubt bnm will be stupid enough to allow that, i.e. physical goods going out, but no matching revenues into the country.

kena fine la! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 01:34 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 3 2016, 01:32 PM)
Went to Maybank tis morning on the pretext to open new FCA for individual

The officer said tat new FCA can b open unless there is supporting docs. Otherwise, can't open as it's subject to their HQ n BNM approval

It seems BNM have imposed stringent controls on the opening of new FCA for individual to deter outflow

Gud news for existing FCA holders but bad news for those who intend to open FCA now
*
what kind of FCA?

dual currency, foreign equities?
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 02:02 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 01:46 PM)
See what happens to those who park their funds in foreign currencies in Msia, as in export companies ??? Now, must convert back to MYR....
*
i would think the bigger listed and private exporting cos. have prepared well.

their mgmt would have foreseen some of these things.

in fact, some glove/condom makers have been gradually shifting their some of their production base elsewhere over the last decade.

GLC's... no idea...
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 04:35 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 02:00 PM)
Err,... I just thought of this. Which is right ? For individuals with RM borrowings, is it;

1) cannot own more than RM1Mil of assets outside Msia in foreign currencies, OR

2) cannot SEND MORE THAN RM1Mil out of Msia in ONE YEAR period ?
*
My understanding so far...

It is about at anytime after dec5, not one year period.

According to item 51 in the FAQ, aggregate is rm1 mil for individual.

It means if u have rm500k loan outstanding, u r allowed to invest balance rm500k in foreign, whether local or abroad.

If u have rm1 mil or more in loan, not allowed at all.

But that is for new fx TOTAL from dec 5 onwards, what u already hv in fx now is fine.

No loan, free to do anything, local or abroad, anytime.

The motive behind is to stop individuals from borrowing in RM and put in FX.

In large nos., this can be very damaging, as seen in the tomyumgung crisis in 1997.



*** edit...

sorry, above is deemed incorrect, please read others' correct posts.



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 3 2016, 08:51 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 07:13 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Sesshoumaru @ Dec 3 2016, 06:15 PM)
Actually, how it works is that as long as you have any form of MYR borrowings regardless of amount, you are subjected to that MYR 1 mio limit. It is not calculated anything like what you've mentioned.

Now I'm no expert when it comes to individuals (I handle corps instead), but I believe there are exceptions to what qualifies as MYR borrowings. Credit card might be excluded, as well as housing/car loans (first 2 of those loans I think). The loaded forumers here might be able to give more solid sharing.
*
to avoid confusion, can u explain a bit more what i said wasn't quite correct?

i think housing loan IS incl in the rm1 mil calc.

pls, do explain, i'm no expert either! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2016, 09:30 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 4 2016, 09:18 PM)
Bros,... hmm,... I'm going to do this,... I'll wake up earlier tomorrow morning and look at how the interbank rates below start :-

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MYR%...=MYR=X;range=1d

If the 'number at the top' drops below 4.4400, then I would know the RM is strengthening,... smile.gif
*
i will also look at the $ index, now at 100.75.

it came from <98 a month ago and peaked at 102.12 just a week ago.

i will not be surprised if RM swings to 4.30 or 4.55 in the next few days.


AVFAN
post Dec 4 2016, 11:53 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 4 2016, 11:05 PM)
1) IF the dollar index goes UP, and the USDMYR goes DOWN, then we know BNM's tactics has worked, at least for the short term.

2) IF the dollar index goes DOWN, and the USDMYR goes DOWN, then BNM's tactics may or may not have worked.

3) IF the dollar index goes UP, and the USDMYR goes UP, then we can be quite sure that BNM's tactics have not worked.

It is not possible for the dollar index to go UP but the USDMYR to go DOWN.
*
??

I would think:

.. $ index up and RM up = measures effective.
.. $ index down and RM down = measures failed, backfire.
.. $ index down and RM up; $ index up and RM down = neutral, measures no impact.

The US Dollar Index
Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 4 2016, 11:54 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2016, 11:56 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 4 2016, 11:54 PM)
The pressing issue is to Short or Long  hmm.gif
*
don't press yourself so much, take at least a day or two, see what happens first! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 09:44 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
.. italian vote caused uncertainty, euro falls to 20 month low.
.. $ index spiked on the news, now 101.40.
.. most currencies fell against $.
.. RM holding at same old 4.45.

maybe still early, but my take is no change from last week.

new measures not showing any impact (yet); BNM probably still intervening to keep around 4.45.

AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 10:32 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2016, 10:23 AM)
Bau for MYR despite new BNM guidelines
*
$ index continues to rise.

oil price softening on us rig count rise, opec incr production before cut.

italian and nz prime minsters resign.

trump tweets against china.

fed rate hike imminent on dec14.



all ingredients pointing to a stronger $.

still hoping $ will fall?! tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 02:07 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 5 2016, 10:53 AM)
Comment : Actually, we know that all factors point to the USD not falling, and even strengthening in the near to medium term. What I'm hoping for is the measures taken by BNM to be able to contain this rise of the USD against the MYR. The immediate question that pops into mind will then be how long will the 5 (is it 5 ?) tactics by BNM unveiled last Friday, Dec 2 be able to defend against the onslaught of the USD...
*
hard to tell at this time...

can be continuous intervention, can be some effect from measures.

guess next fx reserves no. will tell something.

QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2016, 11:59 AM)
CIMB Research sees new forex measures reducing ringgit speculation
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...it-speculation/
Reduce speculation doesn't mean MYR will strengthen
*
righto!

and it is always easy to pin "speculation" as the main culprit, politically correct.

really, does anyone have any data to show that?

or perhaps investors and biz people alike just have fear and lack of confidence?

or just wanna take their money and go somewhere to get better returns?

e.g. how is bursa doing when usa markets are hitting record highs almost everyday?


AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 02:13 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 5 2016, 02:11 PM)
Well some will say 4.45 is good for export & tourism doh.gif
*
good for perodua to raise price, goemn collect more gst?

QUOTE
Perodua: Price review if ringgit remains weak
Read More : http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/12/194428/...it-remains-weak

AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 05:28 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
24,454 posts

Joined: Nov 2010
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 5 2016, 05:14 PM)
Why RM devalue so much compare to other regional currencies in such a short time is about the lack of confidence.
*
foreign analysts talk, plenty of reports, we read.

local analysts don't, cannot, so we follow, culture ma..

u know why la...

politics, emotional... thread gets locked la! tongue.gif

16 Pages « < 13 14 15 16 >Top
Topic ClosedOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0881sec    0.44    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 5th December 2025 - 01:07 AM