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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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Hansel
post Oct 4 2023, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Oct 4 2023, 05:18 PM)
Yea, you never know if rates will go down any time in the coming years. But there is a risk the high can go higher...

You see if 10-year or 30-year hits 5% p.a., it means for the next 10/30 years, every year you will surely get 5% p.a.

This is the risk-free rate, before adjusting for inflation. Certainly tempting... considering that a few years back you have to buy junk bonds just to get 5% p.a. nominal return...

For insurers or those with long-term liabilities to hedge, higher rates for long-duration bonds mean you pay less today. Really a big boon for savers and creditors.
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If the 10y or 30y UST does drop back, this would mean the Feds are cutting rates. When this happens, one would move his funds back to equities and bonds, which would be more lucrative than a mere 5%.
Hansel
post Oct 4 2023, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Oct 4 2023, 05:27 PM)
Yes, but this is market timing. And we all know we rarely time the market correctly. smile.gif
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If FD rates start to drop, then we can start to switch over into equities and REITs. Let's if I'm right again,....
Hansel
post Oct 4 2023, 05:50 PM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Oct 4 2023, 05:44 PM)
Because he like risk free and long duration πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ
It will start dropping by middle next year πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ once the drama showdown is done in the House and when election seasons hits ups because we are going through slowdown next year
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Actually,... it's not riskfree too. If the USD starts depreciating, even if you get more USDs, the purchasing power will be lower.
Hansel
post Oct 4 2023, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Oct 4 2023, 05:55 PM)
Ok, so depends on your financial objectives. E.g. retire in Malaysia -> risk-free MGS/GII. But rates are terrible...

So we ahem... can take risky positions and views, e.g. MYR will continue to depreciate (against USD) in the long run. Then it makes sense to long US Treasury stuffs. laugh.gif
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Prb is if we need to spend in foreign currencies when we go travelling, or having partners or children overseas, etc,... then a weakening USD is detrimental,....
Hansel
post Oct 6 2023, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Oct 6 2023, 12:40 PM)
It is not that BNM willing to defend but it is toolless in the 1st place πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ with usd110 billion in reserves to defend the currency it will be gone less than a week if they make the wrong move as history it is shown that the shortest serving BNM Governor make huge losses in Forex back in the 80s catching the eye of the Feds

The only tool BNM has it is OPR but yet PMX is intervening by forcing his hands in not to raise the OPR which is why mentioned many times that at the current level OPR is too low and it is has to be 50bp higher in order to defend the currency πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ

That is why Singapore government is smart enough with its foresight back in the 80s with multi party and reserves to intervene and defend its currency when it’s needed and stabilise in order for currency to be stable which is a lesson yet Malaysia hasn’t learnt πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ since the pegging person has left the office
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Msia's reserves are too low in absolute amt... somehow, raising the OPR only causes more pain for mortgage-holders rather than benefitting RM strength. Thisis the reson why the leaders think raising OPR will not work in Msia.

Raising the ctrl bank interest rates may work in other countries but not in Msia.
Hansel
post Oct 6 2023, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Oct 6 2023, 03:33 PM)
But yet BNM is proud with their reserves πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ raising OPR is not about the pain for the mortgage holders but the politicians wants business instead to borrow more to spur the economy as housing market in Malaysia is already slowdown since 2018

If you think mortgage holders are painful in Malaysia try comparing in Aust at already close to 7% while US is at 7% range now πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ
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Your statement abt the politicians is merely a hypothesis. Let it rest. It must be what you heard or at best, what you have experienced personally, but this does not constitute a wide perspective across the people when viewing the effect of higher interest rates to the population-at-large.

Australia and The US have minimum wage policies and after the sub-prime crisis, The US has better controls over who is eligible for loans and banks will only provide loans to such entities - individuals and companies. Today, with the higher interest rate environment, the 'control' would be better.

I wouldn't say Msia has above such structures in-place.


Hansel
post Oct 9 2023, 06:39 PM

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Thank you for the above opinions, gents,...
Hansel
post Oct 24 2023, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Oct 24 2023, 10:26 AM)
If Big Tech earnings remain strong, you can expect the market strength to remain. You dont need all stocks to show strength. Big Tech alone can carry the weight of the market.
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We'll kmow soon,... but in the last few days, whenever I switched on Bloomberg, I see the sentiment not being good,..... overall,....
Hansel
post Oct 25 2023, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 25 2023, 01:55 AM)
abcn1n
Nah for you to hear on Costco.
https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/costco
3h podcast on Costco.
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To me,... Costco sells cheaper in Parramatta, Sydney, and at that store near where my daughter used to stay in Melbourne. Saw a Costco too in Seattle, Washington State when I was there but didn't go in,.... In Vancouver, visited Walmart instead abt 1 km from that station before Metrotown station, couldn't see Costco,......... biggrin.gif

Costco pizza slices in Australia are lousy, but my son loves them,... biggrin.gif

That's all I know abt Costco,...... biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Nov 5 2023, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Nov 4 2023, 03:09 PM)
If it goes up to 4.2% expect a cut in rates then
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...may go back down to 3.8% or lower next mth,........ Then Feds may decide to hike for one more time this year in the December Mtg....
Hansel
post Nov 6 2023, 05:19 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Nov 5 2023, 03:21 PM)
I dont think there is much train to miss.

Not when I can get 5% interest in USD deposits.
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Yeah,... I did also put into USD FD and stretched out as far as possible,... But I must also carry in my mind,... the Reinvestment Risk. When my FD matures and the US REITs and shares have all run-up,.. I'm stuck.
Hansel
post Nov 6 2023, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Nov 6 2023, 12:38 PM)
Yes next year πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ but if the both wars accelerating during winter πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ expect cuts sooner
Inflation will spike up during Winter but the current upcoming core CPI whether will factor in
That is why the next 2 CPI reading is important to see whether they will hike in Dec but he will still hawkish even if there is not a hike in Dec
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When cut is not my concern,........ Everybody is ready to WIN ! But of course, I hoped my SG Bank and HSBC share prices and dividends do not drop when Feds starts cutting.

I think,... Feds is reluctant to raise already !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's see.

If I'm right,... I'll release the reasons for saying the above this evening.
Hansel
post Nov 6 2023, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Nov 6 2023, 05:21 PM)
Thats why i prefer money market than FD..can liquidate anytime.
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Money mkt still got risk in case the nav drops,... especially when your amt is large.

I will agree with you if you say : That's why I don't buy T-bill and SSBs,....
Hansel
post Nov 7 2023, 03:50 AM

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QUOTE(xander2k8 @ Nov 6 2023, 11:54 PM)
You should be worried when your SG banks and HSBC is not performing when rates are cut πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ because the business is not growing and revenue is slowing down

If you just depends on your banks to have good NIM only πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ then your shares are in big trouble
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When rates are cut, loans growth will start to take over the revenue-generating work for the banks. Secondly, fee income will also pick-up as investors start coming back into the equities scene with low interest rates for their fixed income instruments. These two sources will be able to offset the drop in net interest income.

I have bought my banks at adequately-low prices, and with low holding-prices, my safety margin will be there shld the share price retreats when rates are cut. This is also why,... I am reluctant to average UP even when I see there is so much potential for the banks to do well this year and in 2024.

Such in the above is my strategy to 'play' the banks.
Hansel
post Dec 10 2023, 11:25 AM

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I am starting to buy High-Yield Stocks,....... these ctrs will go up when Feds pivot,... generally. I aim to get a safe 7+% dividend payout, to be credited EVERY MTH after deduction of US Withholding Tax.

On growth side,... I am watching 'some' ctrs and for IPO, watching 'another' ctr,.......
Hansel
post Dec 10 2023, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(sp3d2 @ Dec 10 2023, 11:45 AM)
What  is ctrs and ctr?

U mean Counter?
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QUOTE(ozak @ Dec 10 2023, 12:24 PM)
I see a trend coming with High yield stocks over 50% after tax. Payout everymonth.  shocking.gif
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Yes bro,... 'ctr' = counter, and in plural form too.

Bro ozak,... you mean there will be a 50% withholding tax from IRS soon ? Kindly help to elaborate,...
Hansel
post Dec 10 2023, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Dec 10 2023, 02:02 PM)
I'm talking the usual 30% tax for dividend income.

Over 50% high yield After tax
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Ok,.. tq.
Hansel
post Dec 11 2023, 09:29 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 11 2023, 01:29 AM)
US growth stocks will trounce dividend stocks in 2024. There is alot of money on the sidelines in money market funds. Alot of these excess liquidity will come back into the market in 2024. They wont go into dividend stocks.
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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 11 2023, 07:56 AM)
I won't even touch high yield stock. I focus on low yield, high dividend growth stock.

What makes you think interest rate at 5% won't break something? Also they may pivot by holding rates at higher for longer as inflation looks sticky.
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I don't know how to reply as I am still testing out,... and I'm tired today,.... biggrin.gif

But thank you for your inputs, gents,...
Hansel
post Dec 27 2023, 03:17 PM

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Bros,... smile.gif smile.gif

Which would you buy - Tesla or Nvidia ?

Which one do you think would run faster next year as the Feds cuts rates,.......
Hansel
post Jan 13 2024, 12:00 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jan 13 2024, 05:52 AM)
I'm waiting for bitcoin to go back to 34k to enter, probably put in 1% of my capital as a lottery ticket. If it reached Wood's prediction of 1.5m by 2030, it's not bad to let the 1% becomes 44%. If it goes to zero, then I lost 1%.  biggrin.gif
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I think it will go up slowly. Going into the SEC Listing is a landmark thing, but it will take time for the 'big players' and mkt-makers to evaluate and accept this instrument. We are in a historic moment.

$DEFI seems holding strong compared to the rest. $Bitwise has the lowest fees, but in one of the weakest at this starting point.

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